Fantasy Football Player Notes
2021 Rest of Season Rankings
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1.
Kyler Murray
ARI (vs . SEA)
At the mid-point of last season, Kyler Murray was on pace to make history as the first QB to ever rush for 1K yards and pass for 4K. He closed the season at 3,971 passing yards and 819 rushing yards. This was due in part to being crushed Week 11 and tweaking his shoulder. The next few weeks, Murray did his best, but he was not 100% healthy. That's the risk/reward of Kyler Murray. At 5'10" and 207 lbs, he doesn't have the same size as Josh Allen, but he plays the same style. It's why I would recommend backing up any investment in him with a solid QB2 on your bench as an insurance policy, even in a single QB league. D'Andre Hopkins was a considerable addition last year, and the two developed fantastic chemistry right away. The inconsistency of the run game and the play-calling created some drastic swings in the offense's productivity. A 4K/1K yard season is certainly within his grasp in 2021, as are 10+ rushing TDs (Murray was 2nd among all QBs with 11 in '20). Last year was a preview of how special Murray can be. Let's hope that Kliff Kingsbury and poor health don't screw it all up again.
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2.
Josh Allen
BUF (vs . NYJ)
Josh Allen had a MVP caliber season and ended up as QB1 overall in fantasy. He finished '20 with 4.5K passing yards, a 69% completion rate, 37 TD, and 10 INT. His rushing attempts year over year stayed flat, but his yardage fell from 510 to 421 yards. That's probably a good thing because it meant he wasn't running with abandon as much. However, he still managed eight rush TDs. Outside of one dreadful game in Week 7 vs. SEA, the O-Line played well, but the run game made the Bills one-dimensional offensively, and Allen to Stefon Diggs was pretty much that dimension. In the playoffs, "reckless" Josh Allen started to creep back in as he tried to do too much under pressure, twisting and turning, trying to make plays instead of eating a sack or throwing a ball away. More balance from the run game in 2021 will help the Bills and Allen thrive this season. However, that's not a given. Six times, Josh Allen scored 30+ fantasy points. A fantasy regular season is usually 13-14 weeks long. He's good for six wins, and that puts you in the playoff hunt.
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3.
Patrick Mahomes II
KC (at DEN)
There may be some annual contenders for the overall QB point leader. However, Patrick Mahomes will annually be in the top tier, which keeps him the #1 overall QB. In 2020, Mahomes threw for 4.7K yards and 38 TD in 15 games. In a 12-team single QB league, you can make a case for as early as the turn in a snake draft rounds 2-3. The WR pool is bottomless, and you can make up ground there. You can fade Mahomes with a powerful QB1 class this year if you like, but there may not be a better one than Mahomes in terms of quality investment. In Superflex leagues, he's easily a top 5 overall selection.
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4.
Lamar Jackson
BAL (vs . PIT)
It would have been impossible for Lamar Jackson to duplicate his lofty 2019 performance of 420 fantasy points. For the first 11 weeks, it seemed like a combination of the league catching up to the Ravens' scheme and the Ravens being cautious with their best weapon. What resulted were lackluster results. After a Week 12 absence, Jackson posted 80 or more rushing yards in 4 of his last five games, where he finished as a QB1 in each of those final five contests. A more confident Lamar Jackson, coming off exercising playoff demons, is one you should be aggressive on in 2021. After all, it is only his fourth year in the league, and he's still an elite fantasy QB.
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5.
Dak Prescott
DAL (at PHI)
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6.
Justin Herbert
LAC (at LV)
Justin Herbert set a rookie record for passing TDs (31), threw just ten picks, and crossed 4.3K yards on his way to Rookie of the Year honors. A new coaching staff, including a new OC, should be careful not to screw up a good thing. The new OC is Joe Lombardi, former QB coach of the Saints. Learning under Sean Payton and Drew Brees, expectations are high for Herbert and company. The expectations are a more "up-tempo" offense built around Herbert's strengths. Drafting Rashawn Slater goes a long way to helping improve an offensive line that struggled. With (8) 300-yard games, Herbert had some big days in 2020, but he also had some rookie moments. Suppose you draft Herbert, bid on a similar season to 2020, not necessarily upside for more. He's not as safe as some veterans like Russell Wilson, nor do I think he has the upside in startup dynasty leagues like Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow. But the 23-year-old QB was impressive enough year one to consider him a QB1 in 2021.
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7.
Tom Brady
TB (vs . CAR)
The entire regular season was one giant practice session for Tom Brady and the Bucs to get right for the playoffs. Not only did they click at the right time, but they went on to win a Super Bowl (Tom Brady's 7th title and 10th appearance). He was supposed to slow down, fade away, etc. It's not happening. Just accept it. Brady has his gang coming back again for '21. A healthy Chris Godwin will be scary, along with Mike Evans and Antonio Brown, over an entire season. The most critical return may be running back Leonard Fournette. In these last few years of Brady's career, he's been at his best running play action effectively. Fournette's emergence late in the year carried over into the playoffs, was a big part of the Bucs' run in the playoffs. Five of his last seven regular-season games went over 340+ passing yards. It's hard not to see Brady realistically approaching 4.5K yards and 30+ TDs again in '21. Brady finished as QB8 overall, and he should be drafted as a QB1 this season again in fantasy. We should all find something in life we love as much as Tom Brady loves to play football and prove people wrong.
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8.
Jalen Hurts
PHI (vs . DAL)
I am a fan of Jalen Hurts, the quarterback. He bet on himself in college and won, then showed he could play at the NFL level in 2020. I am not, however, completely sold on Jalen Hurts, the fantasy quarterback, quite yet. His 38-point performance against the Cardinals rightfully excited a lot of fantasy analysts. But there were some less than stellar moments as well that folks are forgetting. His rushing upside is incredibly intriguing, but he still has a long way to go as a passer. People are also ignoring the Eagles offensive line that did not get markedly better year over year. Plus, it's a new HC, and that means a new playbook to learn and execute. I am not saying Hurts can't take his new toy DeVonta Smith and have himself a QB1 season. I am saying the risk of him finishing outside of the QB1 range is equally possible. Therefore, drafting ahead of proven entities like Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, etc., is unnecessary in a single QB format. In a Superflex league, the gamble becomes intriguing because you can easily team him up with one of those steadier veterans and enjoy the high ceiling games without the low floor contests costing you weeks. In dynasty leagues, Hurts needs to show himself to be the QB of the future for the Eagles, or Nick Sirianni may get to choose his guy in the 2022 draft.
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9.
Matthew Stafford
LAR (vs . SF)
Matthew Stafford deserves some wins. For 12 years, Stafford has toiled away with mostly awful Lions teams. Now, he goes to sunny Los Angeles with a boy wonder offensive coach. He also brings a creaky back and a recently operated on thumb, but Stafford finds himself in a unique situation. He has a second act to show everyone how underrated he indeed has been for the last decade. Since 2011, Stafford has thrown for 4K yards 8 times. One would think he should be a lock for that in '21 as long as health cooperates. Unfortunately, the Rams gave up Jared Goff, a '21 3rd round pick, and their 1st rounders in '22 & '23. If this experiment fails, the Rams could implode quickly, considering their cap issues and lack of early draft picks the next two seasons. However, I'm inclined to think Stafford will find new life with Sean McVay and this talented offense. As a result, Stafford should be considered a low-end QB1 in fantasy this season.
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10.
Aaron Rodgers
GB (at DET)
Aaron Rodgers had an elite level season, but at 38 this year, it's better to think of him as just a hair behind that top 5 group. He threw for a league-high 48 TDs and just five picks while posting 4,299 yards passing and 387 fantasy points. Everything broke right for Rodgers in 2020. Well, except for the NFC Championship game. Oh, and the fact he's "disgruntled" with the organization. It's important not to lose sight of the fact that Rodgers threw for 25 TDs in '18 and 26 TDs in '19. The 48 seems like a pretty colossal outlier at this stage in his career. He had a three-week period where he threw for 15 TDs. Rodgers will give you consistently solid QB play and is still a reliable, upper-tier QB in fantasy. It would be foolish to bid on 2020 as though it was repeatable. Davante Adams had a lot to do with Rodgers' success. If Adams should suffer any injury again, Rodgers' value would immediately take a massive hit. This is the significant difference between Rodgers and a QB like Matt Ryan, who has more weapons at his disposal. For the second year in a row, Green Bay failed to bring in a complementary WR of note, although bringing back Aaron Jones is beneficial to the offense.
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11.
Joe Burrow
CIN (at CLE)
Before the ACL tear, Joe Burrow looked very much like an emerging star at QB for the Bengals. He was on pace for 4.3K yards and around 25 combined TDs. In the good news department, the Bengals drafted his favorite target Ja'Marr Chase from LSU to add to an already strong WR group, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They did pick up two offensive linemen, Jackson Carman and D'Ante Smith, as well. They had both better perform because Burrow was sacked 31 times in 10 weeks (2nd most sacks taken by a QB in '20). But the best news, besides the fact Joe Burrow is medically on track for the start of the season, is that the Bengals defense is still going to be deficient in 2021. That means Joe Burrow will constantly be looking to put up points, and that's fantasy gold. He threw for 300 yards in 5 of his ten games last season and should be well over 4K yards in 2021. The one caveat here is that although Burrow was sneaky mobile in college, you may see a more conservative approach for him post major knee surgery. Burrow is a top 10 dynasty QB, and in 2021, he should be considered a low-endQB1. Just know, there will be some highs and lows in that game log.
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12.
Sam Darnold
CAR (at TB)
Sam Darnold's NFL failure can be attributed to Adam Gase. Not all of it, but enough of a chunk that I am buying into the Darnold reclamation project the Panthers have taken on in 2021. He goes from being bereft of weapons to having arguably the best RB in football in Christian McCaffrey and two talented receivers in DJ Moore and Robby Anderson (whom Darnold is familiar with from their Jet days). He will also benefit from OC Joe Brady, whom I thought was one of the top play-callers in the NFL last year, and stunned he didn't receive more attention as an HC candidate around the league. Three years ago, Darnold was an excellent QB prospect. At 23 years old, it's far too soon to throw him away.
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13.
Derek Carr
LV (vs . LAC)
Very quietly, Derek Carr finished as QB13 last season. This was due to him playing in all 16 games, which many QBs did not in 2020. Carr did throw for his 3rd straight 4k yard season, but I have significant concerns about the offensive line turnover for the Raiders. At 30, Derek Carr is a prototypical league-average quarterback, hence the 8-8 record of the Raiders. I would love him as my 3rd QB in Superflex, but you could do worse as your QB2. Although Carr did make some statistical strides, it's hard to get excited about him in fantasy terms.
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14.
Ryan Tannehill
TEN (at HOU)
2020 was a roller coaster for the Titans and QB Ryan Tannehill. The fact he finished as a QB1 (8) times and a QB2 (8) times says it all. He finished with 3.8K yards, 33 passing TDs, and seven rushing TDs. Ideally, you want Tannehill as your second QB in a Superflex format. That bonus upside he brings some weeks can be huge. However, as your starting quarterback in a single QB format, the inconsistencies could hurt you some weeks. The Titans lost Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith to free agency, but added Julio Jones in June to create one of the more formidable WR corps in the NFL. Tannehill has established himself as a fantasy-worthy QB, it's just that no one seems to give him his due. The Jones addition will raise that profile, but overpaying for Tannehill isn't advisable either. He's a lower end QB1, but still underappreciated.
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15.
Kirk Cousins
MIN (vs . CHI)
Kirk Cousins is a better fantasy quarterback than you realize. He's just a slow starter. I will now elaborate. In September of 2019, Cousins threw for just 3 TDs and 2 INT with 183 passing YPG. For the next two months, Cousins threw for 18 TDs and 1 INT with 288 passing YPG. Through Cousins' first six games of 2020, 11 TD/10 INT/245 passing YPG. Over the next ten games, 24 TD/3 INT/279 passing YPG. One year is an anomaly. Two years is a trend. Cousins may never be a perfect QB in fantasy or reality, but when he's on a good run, he's a QB1. He finished as such in 6 of his eight last games to close out the season. Those runs make him very appealing in DFS at specific points, as he will be undervalued. As your second QB in Superflex, he is a strong option. As a QB1 in deeper leagues, you'd like a tad more consistency, but Cousins has an excellent complement of weapons and is still just 32 years old. Expect 4k yards and 30 TDs in 2021, just be prepared for a slow start.
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16.
Trey Lance
SF (at LAR)
Trey Lance may have sat out last season, but his 2019 college stats and his pro day screamed elite-level talent. I guess that the 49ers will pivot to Lance midway through the '21 season. His sitting out two straight seasons would be detrimental to his development. Lance has Steve McNair-like talent and is a bright student of the game. His film speaks for itself, and I have little concern about his level of competition. He threw 28 TDs with 0 TD's in '19 and rushed for 1,100 yards with 14 rushing TDs in 16 games. He's going to be a fantasy force. Be aggressive in dynasty formats (especially Superflex). In redraft Superflex leagues, he's a draft and stash QB3.
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17.
Daniel Jones
NYG (vs . WAS)
Daniel Jones is a turnover machine. In the 27 NFL games he's played in, Jones has 29 fumbles and 22 INTs. The one crutch is that when Saquon Barkley is healthy, he's been a better version of himself statistically. A healthy run game goes a long way for any QB, but Wayne Gallman had some strong games last year, while Jones continued to spiral. The Giants offensive line is still nothing to write home about. The curious mish-mosh of WR receiver additions year over year (Kenny Golladay, John Ross, Kadarius Toney) have set Jones up for a situation where it all doesn't come together, the Giants (and all of their massive 2022 draft capital) will be selecting another QB. Last year, the Broncos created a similar situation surrounding QB Drew Lock with so much talent it appeared "too big to fail," but it failed nonetheless. This may be the end for Daniel Jones.
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18.
Trevor Lawrence
JAC (vs . IND)
Generational talent. There is no "comp" for Trevor Lawrence. He's the best QB prodigy since Peyton Manning, but far more athletic. He has arm strength, speed, awareness. The total package. He's stepping into a team with a fair amount to work with on day one, and he will be the starter in Week 1. Urban Meyer has had success everywhere, but the NFL is a different animal. How the whole thing comes together will be fascinating to watch. However, Trevor Lawrence is worth a top 3 dynasty pick in any format and has the upside to finish as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 in redraft leagues. The term "can't miss" can be overused, but, it's appropriate when describing Trevor Lawrence.
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19.
Matt Ryan
ATL (vs . NO)
Ryan had two elite wide receivers in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, but Julio is now onto Tennessee. The addition of TE sensation Kyle Pitts in the draft could fill that void and running back Mike Davis in free agency gives Ryan a complete and balanced complement of weapons. Ryan is an annual threat to throw for 4.5K yards and close to 30 TDs. The Falcons still didn't make any real gains year over year defensively, so this offense will have plenty of opportunities to put up points. That's good for your fantasy team. Ryan is a "safe" consolation prize at QB if you miss out on the upper tier at the position. New HC Arthur Smith doesn't have Derrick Henry in Atlanta, so the strength of the offense will continue to be the passing game.
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20.
Justin Fields
CHI (at MIN)
The Bears moved up to draft Justin Fields when he fell in the draft, and he will see the field sooner than later for the Bears. Fields is an accurate passer with a strong arm and speed. He also doesn't shy away from the big stage and is entering a Bears offense with some weapons. The Bears have nowhere to go but up at the quarterback position. You'll hear the Dak Prescott comparisons, but he's quicker than Dak. Fields may even start Week 1 considering what the Bears gave up to get him, but he's more likely fantasy relevant in the latter part of the '21 season.
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21.
Russell Wilson
SEA (at ARI)
For the first nine weeks of the season Russell Wilson, averaged 29.5 pts per game. After that, Wilson averaged just 17.5 pts the rest of the way, killing his MVP candidacy and many fantasy playoff hopes as well. Wilson is a steady presence, despite the down ending in 2020. He should be a lock for 4+K yards and around 35 TDs. The notion the Seahawks were shopping him seriously this offseason is laughable. The franchise QB isn't going anywhere. Last season, Wilson's rushing yards went back above the 500 mark, and his 42 combined passing and rushing TDs were a career-high. At 32, Wilson is in his prime and is an excellent redraft or dynasty investment. D.K. Metcalf's emerging star, coupled with the familiarity of Tyler Lockett, a returning Chris Carson, and an exciting slot WR option drafted in D'Wayne Eskridge, should keep Wilson high on the fantasy QB scale again at season's end. He could be the best return on investment in the position.
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22.
Baker Mayfield
CLE (vs . CIN)
Baker Mayfield has had some challenges in his first three seasons; different HC and play-callers every year, injuries around him, and lofty expectations. In the second half of last season, Nick Chubb got healthy, the offense got simplified, and Mayfield became very proficient in running lots of play-action, forcing him to be more direct with the football. This was the secret to the Browns' success last year. A less reckless Baker Mayfield was a better quarterback in 2020. The throws you get away with in college are interceptions in the NFL. Ironically, this "Better Baker" evolved with Odell Beckham Jr. on the shelf. He will continue to have some decent moments, but in reality, he's a QB2 in Superflex who will have plenty of all or nothing weeks. If he can pick up where he left off (14 TD/2 INT over his last eight games to close out 2020), he could sneak into the back end of QB1. But even over that good second half, Mayfield put up 31 fantasy points against the Ravens and just 8 points against the 2-win Jets. Mayfield is an inconsistent asset until proven otherwise over an entire season. It is also fair to remember two of his home games last year were in weather conditions that made throwing the football nearly impossible.
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23.
Teddy Bridgewater
DEN (vs . KC)
Teddy Bridgewater has the early lead in the starting QB sweepstakes for the Broncos simply because they traded picks for him. Teddy was serviceable last year at times but didn't light up the stat sheet. The Denver offense is loaded with talent. It's all about whether they can stay healthy. Javonte Williams could help this backfield led by Melvin Gordon (for now) and take pressure off whoever is under center to find Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and others down the field. The play calling has been very conservative, though, under Vic Fangio, and neither Drew Lock nor Teddy Bridgewater feels like anything more than a placeholder for whoever is next.
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24.
Jameis Winston
NO (at ATL)
Jameis Winston has a live arm, and yes, the knock on him is all the interceptions in his Tampa days. In his defense, Bruce Arians' offense is super aggressive, throwing the ball downfield at all times and is prone to high turnover rates. The Saints have Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, two of the most efficient weapons in the NFL, who excel after the catch. A dialed-back Jameis Winston could be a better QB than people may realize. The trouble is, there will likely be an increased Taysom Hill workload regardless, and that potentially hurts his fantasy upside, especially in the red zone.
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25.
Carson Wentz
IND (at JAC)
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26.
Mac Jones
NE (at MIA)
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27.
Taylor Heinicke
WAS (at NYG)
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28.
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT (at BAL)
A more balanced offense would be good for Ben Roethlisberger's fantasy value. The Steelers' ineptitude running the football made the offense far too predictable. Big Ben went from low-end QB1 during their undefeated start to a low-end QB2 during their collapse. At 39, injury is always a risk, but as a Superflex QB2, he's safe in terms of value on the board. He has three talented wide receivers and a new star RB in Najee Harris from Alabama. The offensive line is still not great, limiting his upside in matchups against teams with an intense pass rush. Roethlisberger and the Steelers' attack will continue to be less aggressive than years passed. For clarity, Big Ben averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt. That was worse than Drew Lock and Mitchell Trubisky towards the very bottom of the league. He's serviceable at this point as a QB2 but lacks the weekly upside of his younger peers.
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29.
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA (vs . NE)
Tua Tagovailoa's debut was not stellar in 2020. Between significant hip surgery, no OTA's, no preseason, and a QB controversy in his locker room, it's a wonder he could do anything productive on the field. However, the Dolphins continued to build the right way and added WR Will Fuller on a one-year "show me" deal and WR Jaylen Waddle via the draft. Tua has the weapons and an entire offseason to reach his potential in 2021. He's a ferocious competitor and an intelligent QB. He just needs some time to get his feet under him. In 9 starts, he threw for just 11 TDs, but the new weapons will open up the field more for the young QB. He remains a perfect buy low in Superflex dynasty leagues. In redraft formats, he could be a decent mid-range QB2. Tua's is a work in progress, but one that still carries more potential than some want to acknowledge.
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30.
Jared Goff
DET (vs . GB)
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31.
Zach Wilson
NYJ (at BUF)
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32.
Jimmy Garoppolo
SF (at LAR)
Yes, the 49ers made a Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers also just moved heaven and earth to get Trey Lance on their roster. Garoppolo has made just 25 starts for San Francisco over the last few years. He has a cumbersome contract and struggles to throw the ball downfield. He's also not the athlete Trey Lance is, and it would be shocking for Lance to sit an entire season under Jimmy G, effectively missing two straight seasons on the field (the other due to Lance sitting out 2020 during the pandemic). There's an outside chance Garoppolo plays in fewer games this season for the 49ers than Lance. He's simply not a good fantasy investment in the current environment surrounding him, and frankly, even when he's been on the field, he hasn't dazzled enough to get excited about.
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33.
Geno Smith
SEA (at ARI)
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34.
Tyrod Taylor
HOU (vs . TEN)
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35.
Davis Mills
HOU (vs . TEN)
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36.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
WAS (at NYG)
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37.
Taysom Hill
NO (at ATL)
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38.
Andy Dalton
CHI (at MIN)
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39.
Jacoby Brissett
MIA (vs . NE)
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40.
Drew Lock
DEN (vs . KC)
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41.
Cam Newton
FA (BYE)
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42.
Jordan Love
GB (at DET)
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43.
Mitchell Trubisky
BUF (vs . NYJ)
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44.
Jacob Eason
IND (at JAC)
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45.
Kyle Allen
WAS (at NYG)
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46.
Tyler Huntley
BAL (vs . PIT)
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47.
Deshaun Watson
HOU (vs . TEN)
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