2015’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Experts

Dec 30, 2015

After 16 weeks of NFL action, we’re ready to crown this year’s most accurate fantasy expert. From breakthrough studs (Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, etc) to players who derailed fantasy seasons (Dez Bryant, Eddie Lacy and everyone on Eagles), the pundits certainly had plenty of chances to prove their fantasy mettle in 2015. So which experts nailed their predictions, you ask?

To find out, we evaluated over 5 million predictions across all 16 weeks of the fantasy season from 123 experts. The 10 pundits below conquered the gauntlet to hand out the best fantasy advice (view full standings here). Impressively, 6 out of the top 10 experts also finished in the top 10 last year so there is definitely something to be said about the skill involved in fantasy prognostication.

Overall Accuracy Standings

Top 10 Experts – Overall Leaderboard*
 Rank  Expert  PAY™
 1.  Sean Koerner – STATS  59.9%
 2.  Sean Morris – Bruno Boys  59.2%
 3.  Jake Ciely – RotoExperts  59.2%
 4.  John Paulsen – 4for4.com  59.2%
 5.  Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus  59.0%
 6.  Patrick Thorman – Pro Football Focus  58.7%
 7.  Justin Boone – theScore  58.4%
 8.  Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus  58.3%
 9.  Pat Fitzmaurice – The Football Girl  58.3%
 10  Michael Fabiano – NFL.com  58.2%

*See how all 123 experts ranked for the season | View Accuracy Methodology

Notes:

Congrats to 2015’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert: Sean Koerner (STATS). If you’re a fan of consistently accurate advice – and who isn’t – then you’ll like Koerner’s work. This was the 5th NFL accuracy competition he has entered (across draft and in-season) and Koerner has placed in the top 10 each time. More specifically, over the past 2 years, his NFL prediction resume looks like this:

  •  2015 Weekly Rankings Accuracy (1st place)
  •  2014 Projections Accuracy (1st place)
  •  2014 Draft Rankings Accuracy (3rd place)
  •  2014 Weekly Rankings Accuracy (2nd place)

Pretty good run, right? This season, Koerner moved into first place after week 9 and firmly held onto the lead for the remainder of the season. His margin of victory (.7%) was the largest the competition has seen since 2010. Barring something catastrophic happening (such as the tweet below), it’s safe to say that Koerner ran away from the competition for the bulk of the season.

Our runner-up, Sean Morris (Bruno Boys), was one of the biggest risers this year. At the midway point of the competition (week 8), he ranked #42 overall in the leaderboard. Morris then proceeded to finish in the top 10 on 6 separate occasions over the final 8 weeks. The culmination occurred in week 16 when he delivered the highest rated advice at the time it counted most for fantasy owners. During Championship week, Morris was notably above the Expert Consensus with his ranks for Tim Hightower, Frank Gore and DeAngelo Williams. Those 3 players helped lead fantasy owners to titles and ultimately propped Morris up to #2 Overall in our standings.

Accuracy Winners by YearJake Ciely (RotoExperts) has also proven to be one of the most consistent experts in the fantasy industry. With his 3rd place finish, Ciely has now entered our in-season competition three times and landed in the top 5 on each occasion. He’s also an expert that came through for fantasy owners during Championship week (2nd best accuracy). Ciely was higher than the Expert Consensus on several key players that were difference makers during week 16: Allen Hurns, Brandin Cooks and Calvin Johnson. Those decisions helped cement Ciely’s status as the 3rd rated expert in 2015, which represents his best placement to date.

Another expert that deserves kudos is John Paulsen (4for4). If you’ve been following our accuracy competitions over the years then you’re very familiar with Paulsen’s track record. He’s the only two-time champ of the in-season competition (2014 & 2010) and since joining the competition in 2010, he’s finished in the Top 5 on five occasions (out of 6 tries). In other words, he’s been the most accurate expert of the entire field during his 6 cumulative years of participating in the contest.

Congratulations are also in store for Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus). Ratcliffe won our IDP accuracy competition for the 4th season in a row. It’s an impressive feat that will certainly be difficult to duplicate by anyone over the coming years. In fact, in the 5 years we’ve run the IDP contest, a Pro Football Focus expert has won every season (either Ratcliffe or Ross Miles). PFF is well-known for providing extensive IDP content so it’s always fitting to see the accuracy results reflect their support for the IDP format.

Top Experts by Position

In addition to the overall results listed above, we also want to briefly highlight the top rated experts by position. Kudos to the following experts for nailing down the best accuracy scores:

Highest Rated Experts by Position
 Position  Expert   PAY™
 QB  Kyle Wachtel – Forensic Fantasy  59.7%
 RB  Sean Koerner – STATS  62.9%
 WR  John Paulsen – 4for4.com  59.4%
 TE  John Paulsen – 4for4.com  68.0%
 K  Greg Smith – The Fake Football  56.7%
 DST  Justin Boone – theScore  61.7%
 IDP  Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus  58.0%

This officially wraps up 2015’s accuracy contest. Congratulations again to Sean Koerner for earning the Most Accurate Expert honors. Thanks also to the entire field of experts for helping fantasy owners with their advice throughout the season.

We appreciate everyone’s support and look forward to running the accuracy contest again next year!

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