When Laquon Treadwell was drafted 23rd overall by the receiver-needy Vikings last year, the fantasy world let out a collective “giggity.” A 6’2”, 220-pound playmaker going to a Norv Turner offense, Treadwell was immediately anointed the next Michael Irvin. His already lofty MFL10 ADP crept up, peaking in the 6th round.

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Oops. Treadwell caught one pass all year, and Turner was out after 8 weeks. In retrospect, there were plenty of warning signs, but oooh, getting the next Michael Irvin was tempting.

The draft night exuberance for Treadwell was hardly unique. The NFL Draft is the first house on Narrative Street, and once those narratives attach they can send ADPs for the rookie class soaring. That makes now, before the Draft, an intriguing time to buy. Unfortunately, drafting rookies before you know where they’re going to play is a bit of a crapshoot. So that we can at least do some educated crap shooting, I’m going to look at where draft stock and historical rookie production suggest we invest leading up to the NFL Draft.

Post-Draft ADP Movement

First, to get a sense of how the NFL Draft is likely to affect ADPs, I used Draft Shark’s MFL10 ADP Explorer to compare ADPs for last year’s rookies 1 month before and after the Draft.

Wait, what?  Are we to believe almost every fantasy-relevant rookie landed in a favorable spot? Some of these jumps make sense—Sterling Shepard to a pass-heavy, receiver-deficient team, or Jordan Howard to a shaky RB depth chart in Chicago—but much of this is pure, unbridled enthusiasm. Now let’s look at how to exploit this enthusiasm in MFL10s.

Positional Strategy

Quarterbacks

The first problem with rookie quarterbacks is opportunity. Last year 27 quarterbacks started at least 12 games, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for backups. We like to think highly-drafted quarterbacks are going to teams with an opportunity to start, but since 2010 only a little over half of the Round 1-2 picks have started at least 12 games their rookie year. As for rookies drafted after Round 2…they almost never play even half their teams’ games. Give them the Rachel Phelps treatment.

The other problem with rookie quarterbacks is they don’t tend to produce fantasy value unless they run. Joe Flacco finished as QB20 last year with 242.48 fantasy points. Only 6 rookie quarterbacks have surpassed that low bar since 2010, and they all had at least 475 rushing yards or 5 rushing touchdowns.

So, rookie quarterbacks aren’t particularly valuable and shouldn’t be priority targets, pre- or post-draft. If MFL10s are where you let your hair down and get a little crazy, and you feel compelled to draft a rookie quarterback, you need one: (i) who’s likely to be drafted in the 1st or 2nd round; and (ii) who can run. That makes Deshaun Watson (ADP: 171.06), DeShone Kizer (206.40), and maybe Mitch Trubisky (198.51) the viable pre-draft targets.

Running Backs

When talking RBs, opportunity is king. Opportunity is also pretty hard to gauge before a player has a team and a slot on the depth chart. Pre-draft, all we can do is guess, and here draft stock provides some helpful hints.

To provide some context, over this timeframe an RB1 (RB1-12) has averaged 306.5 touches, an RB2 has averaged 238.5 touches, and an RB3 has averaged 177.6 touches. Only 11 rookies have hit even the RB2 mark, and another 19 have hit the RB3 mark. That leaves a lot of running backs—including 17 of 32 backs drafted in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL Draft, and the vast majority of backs taken in Round 3 or later—without fantasy-relevant volume. Sure, in an MFL10 these players may still provide a few usable weeks, but that means most rookies won’t be worth an early-round pick.

The 2nd piece of the puzzle is rookie production, which has been… ok. Since 2010, the 24th best RB has averaged 162 PPR points. 17 rookies (i.e., 2 or 3 per year) have topped that mark. Early round RBs obviously have a higher hit rate and ceiling than RBs drafted later, but even the best prospects (drafted Round 1-2) produce a top 24 season only about 1/3 of the time. That makes drafting one before knowing if his situation is good (Ezekiel Elliott) or bad (Derrick Henry) even riskier.

The sweet spot is RBs projected to go in the 1st or 2nd round of the NFL Draft, but not going too early in MFL10s. I’d scoop up Christian McCaffrey (59.24) and Alvin Kamara (129.64) now—both are projected early-round picks, and both currently have reasonable MFL10 ADPs that will likely go up post-Draft. Joe Mixon (68.49) is also in play, though his off-field issues make him a risk to land in a spot with limited opportunity. Leonard Fournette (30.62) and Dalvin Cook (36.58) may never be cheaper—so if you’re a believer, now’s the time to buy—but they’re unlikely to return value at current ADP.

At the other end of the spectrum, we all remember Jordan Howard’s breakout, but folks were excited about Devontae Booker, CJ Prosise, Alex Collins, DeAndre Washington, Jonathan Williams, Keith Marshall, Paul Perkins, Kenyan Drake, and Wendell Smallwood too. It’s hard to criticize any late round pick, especially since guys like D’Onta Foreman and Samaje Perine will likely be more expensive post-Draft, but this tier of players is most likely to end up a burnt roster spot. They’re fine as your 6th or 7th RB, but I’d rather roll the dice on a Chris Ivory/Ryan Mathews type.

Wide Reciever

As with RBs, before the draft, we can only guess at WR opportunities based on projected draft stock. Unlike RBs, even top rookie WRs aren’t a safe bet for volume.

To put these numbers in context, over this timeframe WR1 (1-12) averaged 150.0 targets, WR2 averaged 125.1 targets, and WR3 averaged 106.6 targets. No rookie receiver has even hit the WR1 mark, and only 6 have hit the WR2 mark. The top picks obviously fare better than later-round picks, but they’re hardly sure things—just 13 of 55 receivers drafted in Rounds 1-2 hit even 100 targets.

Rookie WRs also differ from their RB counterparts in production, and not in a good way. DeVante Parker finished as WR50 last year with 154 PPR points. Since 2010, only 8 of 27 Round 1 picks and 6 of 31 Round 2 picks have topped that mark. Sad! This overstates the case a bit—45 receivers scored at least 100 points their rookie year, and receivers can contribute a handful of usable weeks even in an overall meh year—but on the whole, even the best prospects are not likely to provide season-long value.

If this isn’t sobering enough, let’s not forget about how dependent the position is on quarterback play. Will Fuller’s and Michael Thomas’s seasons would have played out quite a bit differently if Fuller landed with Drew Brees while Thomas was stuck with Brock Osweiler. This quarterback roulette could work in your favor—as it did if you took Thomas last March—but it’s another uncertainty in an already risky pick.

Given the low success rate of rookie receivers, even at the top, Corey Davis (75.98) and Mike Williams (105.30) don’t seem like great bets even at current prices. I think targeting projected 1st and 2nd rounders going in the bottom half of MFL10s—which would’ve garnered major profits on Sterling Shepard and Michael Thomas a year ago—is the better approach. That means you’ve got 1 month to grab shares of John Ross (143.94), JuJu Smith-Schuster (177.83), Chris Godwin (211.60), and Zay Jones (215.63). Others like Curtis Samuel (209.55), Carlos Henderson (215.03), Cooper Kupp (217.74), and ArDarius Stewart (207.91) also fit the mold, though I’m not as high on them.

Tight Ends

To be honest, you can stop reading here if you want to—rookie tight ends rarely do anything. Rob Gronkowski’s 155.6 PPR points is the most of any rookie TE since 2010, but even the best rookie season from the best TE ever would’ve ranked only 12th at the position last year.

Compounding the problem is, pre-draft, we have no idea what kind of opportunity rookie TEs are stepping into. Last year only 5 teams had multiple TEs receive 50 targets. High draft stock doesn’t really help here—recent 1st and 2nd round picks have averaged a mere 45.3 targets per season, and only Jermaine Gresham had more than 60 targets his rookie year.

A few rookie TEs have gotten lucky with touchdowns, a la  Gronkowski (42 receptions, 10 touchdowns) or Hunter Henry (36 receptions, 8 touchdowns), but that’s pretty hard to forecast ahead of time. The other path to relevance, maybe, is as a TENO (Tight End in Name Only). Tim Wright, a wide receiver in college, put up the most receptions (54) and yards (571) of any rookie tight end since 2010. Aaron Hernandez’s rookie year wasn’t far behind. Wright (6’4”, 220 pounds) and Hernandez (6’2”, 245 pounds) were both small enough that they never had to even pretend they were blockers, which may have eased their learning curve and gotten them onto the field earlier than most other tight ends.

Given how little rookie tight ends do—even the heralded prospects—I can’t get behind O.J. Howard (just 7 career TDs at Alabama) or David Njoku (very young and raw at a position where players develop slowly) at their current ADPs (143.65 and 191.40, respectively). Evan Engram (179.98) presents the best buying opportunity—a TENO with a high NFL Draft stock and low MFL10 ADP—but only as a 3rd tight end.

Conclusion

There’s profit to be made investing in rookies over the next month, but tread lightly. For most of these players, the eternal optimism of spring will face a harsh reality come fall.

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Scott Cedar is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his archive and follow him @scedar015.