Tonight provides us a nine-game slate with an intriguing range of Vegas totals (7.5-10.5). Monitoring Vegas line movements and run totals is a beneficial tool that will help gauge your projections.
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool 
Pitcher
Chris Archer (TB): $10,800 vs. KC
Archer gets a favorable matchup tonight against the Royals who have been atrocious on offense this season. The Royals used to be a team you didn’t want to pick on due to their low strikeout rate, peskiness at the plate, and speed on the bases. They currently own the third-lowest wRC+ (75), fourth lowest wOBA (.284) and seventh lowest ISO (.139) against right-handed pitching this season. Their strikeout rate is 21.0 percent, giving them a below-average rate as a team this season.
Archer is an elite pitcher who becomes a beast at home, owning a 32.0 percent strikeout rate and 1.77 FIP. His HR/FB rate is a magnificent 4.5 percent, and he gets to face a Royals team that has a putrid .139 ISO as mentioned above.
Archer and the Rays are a massive -190 favorite tonight, providing a safe floor along with an extremely high ceiling, giving Archer appeal in all formats. The Royals have the second lowest projected run total (3.13).
Stephen Strasburg (WAS): $10,400 vs. BAL
Strasburg gets to face an Orioles team that has to play under National League rules, losing their DH. The O’s are also taking a negative hit in park factor tonight in Washington.
Strasburg comes into this game in fine form, posting a 22.1 percent strikeout rate, 6.8 percent walk rate and 2.69 FIP. He is limiting hard contact this season (27.6%) while owning a career-high ground ball rate (52.6%). With the high ground ball rate and low line drive rate (15.8%), Strasburg is doing a phenomenal job of keeping the ball in the park with a 0.44 HR/FB rate. The long ball is where the O’s will hurt you and given Strasburg’s metrics, it doesn’t seem likely that they will get to him.
Strasburg and the Nationals are a solid -166 favorite and like Archer, you are getting a stable floor and high ceiling, making Strasburg viable in all formats. The Orioles have the third lowest projected run total (3.28).
Catcher
Jett Bandy (MIL): $2,700 vs. BOS
The catcher position is ugly tonight, which on most nights seems to be the common theme. Paying down at catcher provides salary relief to pay up at pitcher and grab a few higher-priced hitters.
When you are going to pay down at catcher there a few things to look for; good park factor, high projected run total, facing a below-average pitcher. Bandy is a catcher that has all of those things going for him tonight while only costing $2,700.
Bandy is doing a solid job this season, owning a .372 wOBA, 125 wRC+ and .250 ISO. The Brewers have the third highest projected run total (4.94).
First Base
Carlos Santana (CLE): $3,800 @ TOR
Francisco Liriano has revived his career multiple times and every time that has happened, it has been with Russell Martin as his catcher. Liriano has a lot of trust in Martin’s pitch selection and framing. Martin is now on the 10-day DL, and I’m expecting Liriano to significantly regress. We all know Liriano is the epitome of “the good, the bad, and the ugly.” Don’t be shocked if tonight is the ugly.
Santana is coming in at a discount ($3,800) and is projected to hit at the top of the Indians order tonight. Santana isn’t posting big numbers just yet, however, a few of his metrics would suggest he is having bad luck, owning a .248 BABIP while registering a 31.0 percent hard hit rate and 21.6 percent line drive rate.
The Indians have a solid 4.37 projected run total tonight and have a favorable park factor tonight in Toronto.
Second Base
Jonathan Villar (MIL): $4,100 vs. BOS
The Brewers have a juicy matchup tonight, facing Kyle Kendrick who induces a lot of contact (86.2%) while owning an awful 5.8 percent swinging strike rate.
Villar is hitting the ball hard this season with a 35.2 percent hard hit rate, but he owns a .267 BABIP. Yes, he is striking out a lot (30.4%), but are you really worried about him not making contact against Kyle Kendrick? Didn’t think so.
Villar is projected to leadoff tonight with plenty of fire power behind him (Eric Thames & Ryan Braun). Villar has elite speed and sneaky power, providing plenty of upside in tournaments tonight.
Third Base
Travis Shaw (MIL): $3,500 vs. BOS
Shaw is enjoying his time in Milwaukee and has found comfort as the Brewers’ everyday cleanup hitter. Shaw currently owns a .357 wOBA, 115 wRC+ and .274 ISO.
Shaw is doing a great job of making contact (84.1%) and when he does he is getting his monies worth with a 31.9 percent hard hit rate and 22.3 percent line drive rate, which has resulted in a beautiful 26.9 percent HR/FB rate. $3,500 is simply too cheap for Shaw tonight, given his matchup, projected lineup spot and Brewers’ projected run total (4.94).
Shortstop
Francisco Lindor (CLE): $4,500 @ TOR
Lindor is one of the few elite options at shortstop tonight and is projected to hit second for the Indians. My thoughts on Liriano are noted above and given the lack of upside tonight at shortstop, it makes sense to pay up for Lindor.
Lindor is always a popular option when racing a right-handed pitcher as most of his power comes from the left side. However, Lindor is doing just fine this season against left-handed pitching, owning a .353 wOBA, 126 wRC+ and .192 ISO. Lindor is an elite option and is viable in all formats tonight.
Outfield
A.J. Pollock (ARI): $3,900 vs. DET
I’m having a difficult time understanding why Pollock is only $3,900 tonight. Pollock gets to face a left-handed pitcher at home. Anytime that is the case, Pollock’s salary should be around $4,500.
Pollock absolutely feasts against left-handed pitching at home, owning a .581 wOBA, 257 wRC+ and .458 ISO. Those are video game numbers, and for only $3,900 he can be yours. Don’t be shocked when you see his high ownership, but do you really want to be underweight on him tonight? The Diamondbacks have the highest projected run total (5.59).
Corey Dickerson (TB): $3,400 vs. KC
Dickerson is doing a fantastic job as the Rays’ leadoff hitter this season. Dickerson provides you plenty of upside in the power department, owning a .226 ISO. Being that he is the leadoff hitter also gives you comfort in knowing that he is likely going to register four-to-five at-bats tonight. Dickerson owns a .390 wOBA and 156 wRC+ this season. The Rays own a decent projected run total (4.38) and $3,400 seems like a discount for a leadoff hitter that has power upside.
Tyler Collins (DET): $2,800 @ ARI
Collins is projected to hit second tonight for the Tigers. If Ian Kinsler is out of the lineup again, Collins just might get bumped up to the leadoff spot tonight. Collins has done a fine job of reaching base (.345) against right-handed pitching season while posting an above-average .327 wOBA and 108 wRC+. $2,800, favorable lineup spot, Chase Field, platoon advantage. Those four factors are good enough for me to roster Collins tonight. The Tigers have the fourth-highest projected run total (4.91).
Recommended Lineup
Chris Archer (TB): $10,800 vs. KC
Stephen Strasburg (WAS): $10,400 vs. BAL
Jett Bandy (MIL): $2,700 vs. BOS
Carlos Santana (CLE): $3,800 @ TOR
Jonathan Villar (MIL): $4,100 vs. BOS
Travis Shaw (MIL): $3,500 vs. BOS
Francisco Lindor (CLE): $4,500 @ TOR
A.J. Pollock (ARI): $3,900 vs. DET
Corey Dickerson (TB): $3,400 vs. KC
Tyler Collins (DET): $2,800 @ ARI
If you have any questions or need suggestions, feel free to tweet me at any time. Best of luck this week.
Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.
