Early 2017 Overvalued Fantasy Football Players

Now that summer has arrived, and NFL minicamps have come and gone, fantasy football draft season is about to kick into high gear. Many people have already drafted, or are deep into research to prepare for their upcoming draft. Either way, we have reached the point in the “offseason” that daily research and staying abreast of all NFL news is critical to assembling a championship-caliber fantasy squad.

Finding sleepers and undervalued players remains the most coveted aspect of the roster building process, but knowing which players are being overvalued– the guys that you want to avoid adding to your roster– is just as important to the process. So using our latest average draft position (ADP) PPR data, here are some players you may want to approach cautiously or avoid altogether in the 2017 fantasy football draft season.

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Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (ATL): ADP 6.11 (QB5)
Throughout his nine-year career, Matt Ryan was the prototype for fantasy owners who waited for the longest to draft their starting QB but still wanted a relatively safe player. But after struggling badly in 2015, his first in Kyle Shanahan’s complex system, it all came together for Ryan and the Falcons in 2016. Ryan was a top-three fantasy quarterback, and the Falcons led the NFL in scoring.

But some factors make Ryan unlikely to repeat those gaudy numbers from last year. First, Shanahan is now the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, so the offense is highly unlikely to be as effective or aggressive. Secondly, the Falcons made major additions to their defense, and won’t repeat the league’s sixth-worst ratio of plays allowed per game.

Finally, Ryan’s fantastic 2016 reeks of a “career year” and is ripe for regression. Ryan set career highs across the board in most significant passing marks, but before that he’d mainly been an adequate fantasy option who averaged between 19 and 22 fantasy points per game in five of the previous six seasons. Look for him to drop back to the pack in 2017, and that makes him a much better target two or three rounds later than his current late sixth round price tag.

Derek Carr (OAK): ADP 8.04 (QB8)
Today’s NFL game is so loaded with terrific fantasy quarterback options that it makes little sense to reach for a signal-caller when excellent options are available well into double-digit rounds. Case in point is Oakland’s Derek Carr, a terrific young passer on a surging Oakland Raiders team.

As good as Carr has been through his first three pro seasons, he’s only been a good fantasy option in an era when the NFL’s rules allow 20 or more quarterbacks to exceed 300 fantasy points per season. While Carr is certainly a winner and worthy of being a starting fantasy signal-caller, he’s not a player you need to reach for.

In fact, Carr has yet to even finish as a QB1 in his career.

 
Carr just turned 26 and enters 2017 primed to earn a lucrative extension in a contract year, but the addition of running back Marshawn Lynch assures that the Raiders will continue to feature a strong running game powered by one of the premier offensive lines in the league. Derek Carr is certainly worthy of being a starting quarterback in fantasy football but he’s currently being drafted ahead of players, like Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers, who regularly outscore him in fantasy football, and that makes Carr a poor value in 2017.

Other overvalued QBs: Cam Newton (CAR) QB7, Ben Roethlisberger (QB10), Carson Wentz (QB18)

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray (TEN): ADP 2.05 (RB9)
Murray bounced back nicely from a failed season in Philadelphia to end up as a top-five fantasy running back with the Titans. But now 29 years old with some 1,688 career touches, and a 6-foot-3, 247-pound teammate who happens to be seven years younger waiting in the wings, Murray is unlikely to attain last year’s 346 touch total.

In the final five weeks of the 2016 season, Murray began to show signs of fatigue. During that stretch, he fell to RB37 and averaged just 3.8 yards-per-tote. His teammate, Derrick Henry was a more effective runner in four of Tennessee’s final five contests and scored all five of his rushing touchdowns after Week 8.

Henry was also a more effective goal line runner. While Murray did punch in six touchdowns inside the opponent’s five-yard line, he garnered only five total yards on 12 carries and was stopped for no gain or dropped for a loss on five of the dozen carries. Henry averaged a healthy 2.0 yards-per-carry inside the five and converted 75% of his touches into touchdowns.

The Titans also spent some major draft capital on upgrading their passing attack. While Murray will continue to be heavily involved in the passing game, Derrick Henry should see an increased role on first and second downs, and command a bigger red zone role. That will make it hard for Murray to put up top-10 fantasy numbers this season.

Mark Ingram (NO): ADP 6.05 (RB25)
The Saints have never really committed to using Mark Ingram as featured back, but his solid all-around skill set has kept him very fantasy relevant. But after bringing in veteran Adrian Peterson, who is drawing rave reviews in June and drafting Alvin Kamara to presumably take over as the passing-down specialist, Ingram looks like he’ll be in for a reduced role.

Even though Ingram is coming off of his finest season, including his first 1,000-yard, 5.0 yards-per-carry campaign, the Saints still saw fit to sign Peterson, who appeared to be a declining player in limited action during 2016. But Peterson is a Hall of Famer who is likely to take over at least half of the first and second-down carries and goal line work. Ingram is an effective pass catcher, but he could see himself competing for those looks as well.

It’s hard to envision Ingram getting the nearly 16 touches per game he got last year, and that will make it hard to rely on him as even an RB2. If Peterson continues to impress in training camp, he may be the Saints’ runner to begin targeting in fantasy drafts.

LeGarrette Blount (PHI): ADP 7.06 (RB 32)
At RB32, Blount doesn’t seem all that bad, but now that he’s signed with the Eagles, his ADP is likely to rise into RB2 range, and that makes Blount a candidate to be over drafted. Blount’s main value was as a scorer, where he excelled in short yardage for a Patriots team that has by far the most red zone and goal-line rushing attempts over the past six seasons. But removed from Tom Brady and New England’s potent offense, Blount won’t see nearly as much usage in that area.

Blount is also a one-dimensional player. In seven pro seasons, he’s averaged only 6.5 catches per year. With Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood and Donnell Pumphrey on the roster, Blount is highly unlikely to make much of an impact in Philadelphia’s passing game.

Instead, Blount, whose effectiveness as a runner has declined in four-straight seasons, is due for a season of roughly 170 touches, as his coaches envisioned upon his signing. Going with his career trajectory, that translates into about 675 yards and six or seven touchdowns.

Other overvalued RBs: Lamar Miller (HOU) RB12, Dalvin Cook (MIN) RB23, Kenneth Dixon (BAL) RB39

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen (LAC): ADP 3.05 (WR15)
Keenan Allen has played nine games since 2015 and has scored only eight touchdowns in the past three years combined. He had a 1,000-yard season as a rookie but hasn’t approached it again. In short, he simply can’t stay healthy, and people are still overpaying due to his phenomenal rookie season– which was four long years ago.

When healthy, Allen hasn’t been as big of a factor in San Diego’s passing game. After an impressive 14.7 yards-per-carry figure as a rookie, he has yet to eclipse 10.8 yards-per-grab since. And eight touchdowns in 23 games is a meager number for a player being drafted as a WR1 or solid WR2.

As good as Philip Rivers and the Chargers passing game has been, a healthy Keenan Allen will struggle to put up WR1 numbers in an offense loaded with talent. Melvin Gordon, Tyrell Williams, first-round rookie Mike Williams, Antonio Gates, and Hunter Henry will all be vying for targets, too.

With a long injury history and a lot of competition for targets, there are safer options in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds. Let somebody else pay the interest on that 2013 season.

Davante Adams (GB): ADP 4.01 (WR19)
After two middling seasons as Green Bay’s third or fourth wideout to begin his career, everything finally came together, and he shocked the fantasy world with a top-10 wide receiver finish. While other key parts of the Packers offense struggled, Adams put up career numbers across the board and is now considered a safe WR2.

But there are some reasons to think that Adams numbers might regress quite significantly. First, he’ll certainly attract a lot more respect and attention for opposing defenses. He’ll see No. 2 cornerbacks a lot more than he did in 2016.  Secondly, with Ty Montgomery, Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones now in the backfield, the Packers won’t have to rely on Aaron Rodgers‘ arm quite as much as they did last year.

Finally, the addition of tight end Martellus Bennett, the running backs and the return of a healthy Randall Cobb, who normally plays a big role in the red zone, will combine to reduce the number of red zone targets Davante Adams will get. Adams was one of only two wide receivers to finish in the top-20 in fantasy scoring that failed to surpass 1,000 receiving yards. If his touchdown numbers regress back down to the six-to-eight range, Adams could tumble right out of the top 30.

Breshad Perriman (BAL): ADP 10.07 (WR48)
It seems like Perriman has played about as many games as Kevin White, but after missing his entire 2015 rookie season, Perriman played a full 16 games last year for Baltimore. And despite the fact that he was featured in an offense that led the NFL in pass attempts, Perriman produced a mere 33 receptions and three touchdowns–good enough for a WR77 finish.

With Steve Smith’s retirement, Perriman was slotted to move up into the WR2 role, but the recent signing of Jeremy Maclin assures that Perriman will remain the WR3 in Baltimore. Even if he makes modest improvements around the board, Perriman will have a difficult being anything more than a spot flex starter in fantasy. Now that Maclin is in the fold, Perriman’s ADP is likely to begin sliding, just make sure that you have at least four other wideout options before you end that slide.

Other overvalued WRs: Alshon Jeffery (PHI) WR18, Sammy Watkins (BUF) WR20, Donte Moncrief (IND) WR30, Corey Davis (TEN) WR35

Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph (MIN): ADP 9.01 (TE10)
Last year, Rudolph led all tight ends with 132 targets, which was just under the 153 targets he accumulated in 2013-2015 combined. Minnesota’s poor offensive line and rushing attack were a big reason why Sam Bradford relied on his tight end so much last season.

The Vikings acquired Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook to shore up that lackluster rushing attack, and also added third-round center Pat Elflein, fifth-round guard Danny Isidora, and sixth-round tight end Bucky Hodges to help improve the blocking. There’s nothing wrong with selecting Kyle Rudolph as the TE10, but there’s no point in drafting him in the ninth round when similar players will be available two or three rounds later. There’s nothing wrong with selecting Kyle Rudolph as the TE10, but there’s no point in drafting him in the ninth round when similar players will be available two or three rounds later.

Coby Fleener (NO): ADP 13.09 (TE16)
Fleener was a popular sleeper target last year, with the prevalent thought that he would blow up with a big role in the vaunted New Orleans offense instead of sharing time with the Colts. Instead, Fleener looked like a player who should be splitting time and ended up with similar overall numbers that he put up annually in Indianapolis.

 
Fleener failed to score double-digit fantasy points in 12 of the Saints 17 games last season and ended up tied with notable players like Garret Celek, Jacob Tamme, and Clive Walford with only three touchdowns. With the Saints bringing in new players like Adrian Peterson, Alvin Kamara, and Ted Ginn, Jr., Fleener should continue to be an afterthought to Drew Brees. Fantasy owners would be better advised to draft a more proven option like Jason Witten, or one with more upside like Julius Thomas ahead of Fleener.

Other overvalued TEs: Tyler Eifert (TE5), Hunter Henry (TE8), Jared Cook (TE17)

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Jody Smith is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jody, check out his archive and follow him @JodySmithNFL.