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Grading Trades: Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Nelson Cruz

Grading Trades: Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Nelson Cruz

It’s that time again – time for our weekly Grading Trades column, and you know what that means. That’s right; we get to take a look at this week’s trades that went down across the fantasy baseball world and decide how much or how little we like them or provide some feedback on trade offers you might be a bit torn on. As always, thanks to all who submitted their trades to us and keep on keepin’ on.

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I traded Clayton Kershaw for Stephen Strasburg and Ervin Santana. Standard 5×5 12-team league, H2H. Instead of wins, we have quality starts. Totally won this trade.  

No, you didn’t. When we’re talking about the elite, the truly elite players in the world – which Clayton Kershaw is – it can be difficult to put a price tag on them that seems fair or leaves you feeling that you got enough in return. That’s part of the reason why we don’t see many trades of these players that don’t involve a return of three or more players.

I get it. Ervin Santana is having a career year, and when Stephen Strasburg is healthy, he is easily one of the 10 best fantasy pitchers on the planet. But you didn’t win this trade, not by a long shot. You effectively traded Kershaw for Strasburg and another starting pitcher who is due for some serious regression.

Santana is rocking a 1.75 ERA, but his 4.10 FIP tells the story of a career 4.01 ERA/4.22 FIP starter who has never been horrible – just never really great. His K/9 is below his career average, and last season’s mark. His LOB rate is nearly 20 points better than his career average, including the previous three seasons, and his walk rate is up 2.5 percent over his career average and 2.9 percent higher than where it stood last season.

The icing on the cake here is the fact that Santana is throwing first-pitch strikes at the lowest rate of his career, while also generating fewer swinging strikes relative to the last four seasons and his career. Much of his early success has to do with utilizing his changeup more often than he has ever before in his career. However, he also has a .143 BABIP for the season up to this point.

You got sold hard on Santana being that great complimentary piece in the trade that brought back Strasburg. Though I don’t know what other starters your trade partner has on their team, I would have preferred guys like Jeff Samardzija, Eduardo Rodriguez, or even Rick Porcello over Santana as the secondary piece. I give the trade a D+ since you didn’t do your homework.

I’ve been offered Xander Bogaerts for Nelson Cruz, straight up. I currently have Manny Machado at SS, but I could move him to 3B if I accept this deal. I also don’t want to give up Cruz though.  

I like this trade for your team. Regardless of whether you are in a roto or H2H league, it’s easier to replace an outfielder than it is an SS.

Xander Bogaerts is currently performing as a top 10 fantasy SS this season. While the lack of power to this point in the season has been a bit of a letdown – he is successfully stealing bases at a greater frequency compared to last season, and there also aren’t any concerns about his aging out in the second half of the season.

Yeah, yeah, I know – Nelson Cruz is some ageless wonder. That will only go on for so long, and there are signs that he has slowed down a bit this season at 36 years old (37 on July 1). There’s the drop in power production with his ISO falling more in line with his career numbers with the Texas Rangers at .240 as opposed to the three previous seasons of .254, .264, and .268.

Then you have to consider the dip in hard hit balls and a worrisome drop in LD%. His career LD% is 17.3%, but this year he’s at just 13% which happens to be the lowest market of his career since he posted a 12.2% LD rate in 2006 through 41 games with the Rangers. His overall contact rate in the strike zone is down, though his contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone has increased back to his career norms.

Nelson Cruz has enjoyed a nice little three-season resurgence with the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles, but it appears (to me at least) that he’s finally slowing down and is no longer the 40 home run threat he had been. My advice is to do the deal, then take a look at the waiver wire if you want or need to pick back up another outfielder. FantasyPros’ ROS projections show under-owned players such as Aaron Altherr, Domingo Santana, and Kendrys Morales (among others) as players who would help make up for the loss of Cruz while Bogaerts’ production is added.

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To satisfy that fantasy baseball itch that is making trades, we’re grading and providing feedback on them as you submit them. Tweet us at @FantasyProsMLB with the trade details and use #FantasyBaseballTrades and we’ll let you know what we think about the deal.

Lance Rinker is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Lance, check out his archive or follow him @LanceMRinker.

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