We made it, you guys. It’s officially Josh Gordon week. It doesn’t matter if you own him in any leagues or if you’re playing him in DFS. This is a great comeback story about a young man who got ahold of his life, despite most fans saying that he had nothing wrong in the first place. He had a problem with priorities in his life, including addiction to many drugs and alcohol. Believe it or not, he thanks Roger Goodell, so he did in fact have something wrong. Go get it, Josh, we’re rooting for you.
On top of the fact that it’s Josh Gordon week, it’s also Week 13. Do or die time in most fantasy leagues, as the playoffs start next week. It’s kind of crazy when you take into consideration that we’ve had 12 different versions of The Primer, which amounts to roughly 240,000 words. When talking to a family member at Thanksgiving last week, they asked me how many words are in most novels. Without knowing the answer, we googled it and found out that most are in the range of 55,000-80,000 words. So, if you have someone in your family telling you that you need to read more, tell them that you’ve read anywhere from three to five books this year, though they were all about football.
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If this is your first time here, The Primer was made so that you could have something to go along with rankings. Something that gave you reasoning as to why a player should be started or why he should be benched. There’s not much time for you to dive knee-deep into stats during the week when you have a full-time job and a family, I get it. That’s what I’m here for. Things can obviously change throughout the week, so make sure you pay attention to my rankings come Sunday morning. You can find them right here. Now let’s talk about what to expect in Week 13.
Jump to specific game:
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 44.0
Line: DAL by 1.5
QBs
Kirk Cousins: In one of the best matchups of the week, Cousins kind of let down his owners with a 242-yard, two-touchdown performance, though they shouldn’t complain. He’s now totaled at least 16 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games, including six 20-point performances. The Cowboys themselves haven’t been great against quarterbacks, allowing multiple touchdown passes in 8-of-11 games this season, though Cousins was one of those who didn’t back in Week 8. Since that time, the Cowboys have fallen apart, and have allowed nine touchdowns in their last four games on minimal attempts (no quarterback thrown the ball more than 33 times). This is a worse defense than the one Cousins shredded for over 800 yards and four touchdowns in their two meetings last year, so he’s most definitely in the QB1 conversation, and one that I’d feel comfortable playing in DFS. The low implied total is concerning, but not enough to move me off him. He’s got one of the safest floors in fantasy football this week.
Dak Prescott: We all know the stats by now, but Prescott is struggling. Is it Ezekiel Elliott? Is it the offensive line? I’m one of those who happen to think everything has had a small effect on Prescott, combined with the fact that he’s in a slump. Each and every quarterback will go through times like this, though Prescott’s will be magnified due to the time it’s happening. The Redskins are one of the opponents that people are referencing in Prescott’s struggles, that he threw for just 143 yards and no touchdowns against them back in Week 8. That was due to Elliott running all over them for 150 yards and two touchdowns, meaning Prescott didn’t have to do much. This matchup isn’t a bad one by any means, as the Redskins have now allowed five of the last eight quarterbacks to score at least 21.6 fantasy points against them. The Cowboys need to get Prescott out of the pocket and on the move, as he’s one of the better scramblers in the league. It’s important to mention because he’s totaled just 10 rushing yards in the last two games combined, and that comes after rushing for at least 16 yards in each of the first nine games. He’s still on my QB1 radar, though he’s not as safe as he once was. Consider him a low-end QB1 with upside.
RBs
Samaje Perine: He’s now looked great in each of the last two games, as he’s totaled 256 yards on a massive 51 touches. We knew that he’d see a lot of work with Rob Kelley on IR, but now that Chris Thompson joined him, Perine is going to be involved in the passing game as well. He saw a career-high four targets in Week 12, raising his fantasy floor even in bad matchups. This week isn’t one of those. The Cowboys are likely to be without Sean Lee once again, which is a massive upgrade for opposing run games. In the seven games with Lee in the lineup, they have allowed 495 yards on 132 carries (3.75 YPC) with three touchdowns. In the four games they’ve been without him, they’ve allowed 531 yards on 99 carries (5.36 YPC) and three touchdowns. It’s a big upgrade if he’s out. Perine is going to be on the RB2 radar regardless, because of the volume he gets, but could move into the low-end RB1 conversation.
Alfred Morris and Rod Smith: It’s the revenge game for Morris, though he may not have the opportunity after the Cowboys are apparently “shaking things up,” on both offense and defense. Morris had been running the ball well on first and second down until Thanksgiving where he totaled just 36 yards, though his “workload” of nine carries is tough to get something going. But with the way this offense runs, Morris doesn’t fit the way they need him to. They need a back who can catch the ball out of the backfield, as their wide receiver corps outside of Dez Bryant looks like a B-squad. There’s going to be risk with both of these running backs unless we get clarity before the game on who is starting. My solution would be to start Smith and let Morris take over in clock-killing mode, though I’m not the coach of the team. There have been seven running backs who’ve totaled 13 or more carries against the Redskins and just one of them has finished with less than 10.7 fantasy points (LeGarrette Blount). They are both risky flex-options, though I’m guessing Morris is the one with slightly more value in this game.
WRs
Josh Doctson: Despite matching up with Richard Sherman, Xavier Rhodes, Marshon Lattimore, and Janoris Jenkins over the last month, Doctson has been able to keep his fantasy owners afloat with at least 59 yards or a touchdown in three of the four games. This is the first matchup since being promoted to full-time where he won’t have a shutdown cornerback glued to him. The Cowboys secondary is being shuffled around this week with the benching of Anthony Brown, so Doctson will face a mixture of rookies Jourdan Lewis, Chidobe Awuzie, and former Panther Bene Benwikere on the perimeter. None of them are imposing cornerbacks that you shy away from in coverage, so feel free to start Doctson as a WR3 in fantasy leagues. He’s going to have a breakout game soon.
Jamison Crowder: As mentioned here last week, Crowder was someone who was going to benefit from the loss of Thompson and should be started as a WR2/WR3 for the remainder of the season. He’s now seen 42 targets over his last four games, turning in seven catches or more in three of them. He’s going to start finding the end zone a bit more regularly with those targets and it started in Week 12. The matchup with Orlando Scandrick doesn’t look so bad after Keenan Allen just destroyed them for 11/172/1 on Thanksgiving, though he’s likely the Cowboys best cornerback. The reason you can trust Crowder as normal is due to his 9/123/0 performance against them back in Week 8, which was one of Cousins’ worst performances of the year. Scandrick has been streaky throughout his career, so Crowder isn’t an auto-start in all of your DFS lineups, but he’d better be in some of them. He’s teetering on the WR2 conversation in standard leagues, and is a rock-solid WR2 in PPR formats.
Dez Bryant: There are a lot of Bryant doubters out there now that he’s failed to record more than 73 yards or score a touchdown in each of the last five games, but don’t be one of those who says Bryant isn’t the same player he once was. He most definitely is. If you listened to Tony Romo announcing that game on Thanksgiving, he was dumbfounded by how little they were playing into Bryant’s strengths. If you came to FantasyPros before the season, you would’ve read that he would struggle this year in my player profile of him. Now that Elliott is sidelined, most teams can afford to slide a safety in coverage to his side of the field rather than keeping him in the box. With that, this matchup isn’t a bad one for Bryant, as Josh Norman stays on one side of the field, and it’s the side that Bryant is on just under 40 percent of the time. He’ll see Bashaud Breeland in coverage the most, and while he’s been solid this year, it’s a matchup the Cowboys need to exploit. Consider Bryant a high-end WR2 for this contest.
Terrance Williams: He’s going to match-up with Norman the majority of time, making him unplayable in fantasy leagues this week. You’ll live with yourself knowing you benched him, even if he does score a fluke touchdown. He should be in danger of being passed by Brice Butler.
Cole Beasley: He’s scored two touchdowns in two separate games, but has yet to record more than four catches or 33 yards in any one game this year. He belongs on waiver wires, even though the Redskins have struggled with slot receivers.
TEs
Vernon Davis: Considering that Jay Gruden said he has “no idea” when Jordan Reed will return, we have to go forward assuming this is Davis’ job. Some are gun-shy because of his one-target, zero-catch performance against the Giants, but it was Crowder’s day. After starting the year without allowing a TE1 performance in the first eight weeks, the Cowboys have really struggled since then, allowing Travis Kelce 7/73/1, Austin Hooper 6/49/1, and Hunter Henry 5/76/1 over the last four weeks. This is a matchup that looks like one to exploit, especially if Sean Lee misses another week. Davis is smack in the middle of the TE1 conversation.
Jason Witten: Everyone talks about the Giants and the Browns as teams who struggle against tight ends, but the Redskins are right up there. There have been five tight ends to post 89 or more yards against them this season, which is the most in the league. Witten finished with just 31 yards against them in the first meeting, but if you read the Prescott paragraph, you already know why. This is one of the weeks where I’d feel comfortable streaming Witten as a borderline TE1.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Total: 43.5
Line: KC by 3.5
QBs
Alex Smith: Can you imagine what the line on this game would have been after the first few games of the season? May have been double digits. The Chiefs offense has looked awful for two straight weeks and Smith is taking a lot of the heat. The run game isn’t working and he doesn’t have a go-to No. 1 wide receiver. Fortunately for him, the Jets secondary isn’t one to run from. They stop the run extremely well, but have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to eight different quarterbacks this season. The area of concern for Smith is a lack of ceiling, as there have been just three quarterbacks who have thrown the ball more than 35 times against the Jets. If you look at Smith’s best games this season, he’s totaled at least 35 pass attempts in each of them. One of the bonuses is that the Jets have allowed six different quarterbacks to rush for at least 28 yards, including two touchdowns. Smith is a high-floor QB2 in this matchup and one that can be streamed, unless there are high winds for the game (there have been two weeks in a row now).
Josh McCown: What a year it’s been for McCown, who has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of his last 10 games, including two games with three touchdowns. The Chiefs aren’t a shutdown defense by any means, as they’re allowing 257 passing yards per game (7th-most) and have allowed 17 passing scores on the year. They did add Darrelle Revis to the secondary, though it’s hard to say if he’ll have an impact against his former team. With the Jets run game struggling like they are, it’s pretty safe to rely on McCown as a high-end QB2 in this matchup. Again, pay attention to the weather reports in Jersey before the game, as 20-plus MPH winds would change a lot of outlooks.
RBs
Kareem Hunt: I mentioned last week that if Hunt didn’t get it done against the Bills, you should officially be concerned about him. After posting just 17 scoreless yards on 11 carries, we are on red alert. Looking at everything in the grand scheme of things, Hunt is still a low-end RB1, but it’s been trending the wrong way ever since the start of Week 6. In that time, he ranks as the RB23 behind Austin Ekeler, Isaiah Crowell, Adrian Peterson, and Corey Clement. That’s #notgood. There have been 14 running backs who’ve totaled double digit carries against the Jets, though just one of them has hit the 100-yard mark. They are allowing just 3.71 yards per carry on the year with five rushing touchdowns, but have allowed decent receiving totals, including three receiving touchdowns. The game-script in this game should play into Hunt’s strengths, but it’s hard to feel confident knowing that he played on this exact field in Week 11 and totaled just 77 total yards. There have been 11 running backs who’ve finished as top-24 options against the Jets, so consider Hunt a safe high-end RB2 who offers more upside than most in his range. Don’t forget that he’s still posted at least 9.8 PPR points in 10-of-11 games despite not scoring a touchdown since Week 3.
Bilal Powell and Matt Forte: It was a surprise to see Forte active in Week 12, as he’s been trying to rest his knee up that has had some swelling in it. It didn’t affect his playing time, either, as he out-snapped Powell 29 to 23, while Elijah McGuire still played 18 snaps. This is a timeshare that’s gone on for far longer than any of us had hoped, and not one that you want to be associated with by choice. Since voicing his displeasure in the play-calling, Forte has totaled 67 touches in his last six games, while Powell has totaled 64 touches in his last six games. Both are in the same conversation, though it seems very likely that Forte has the goal-line work, which give him the slight edge. The Chiefs have allowed at least one double-digit PPR running back in each of their last seven games, so it’s likely that one of them sneaks into RB3 territory. Consider Forte a flex-play, while Powell is just an RB4.
WRs
Tyreek Hill: Is it clear to the Chiefs that they need a No. 1 wide receiver yet? Hill is a solid role player, but he doesn’t offer Smith any safety in ‘throw it up’ one-on-one situations. That’s why Hill offers no stability or consistency in fantasy, as he’s failed to post more than 8.4 fantasy points in two straight games. With that being said, he’s a great play in Week 13 against Morris Claiborne. He’s played well in shadow coverage for the most part, but it’s speed that will get him every time. Claiborne runs close to a 4.6-second 40-yard dash, while Hill has world class speed. It’s the reason Kenny Stills, Brandin Cooks, and DeSean Jackson all posted at least 85 yards against the Jets. If they trust him in man-to-man coverage, Hill is going to finish as a WR2, at worst.
Robby Anderson: He’s now scored in five straight games, and was the first wide receiver to finish as a top-12 option against the Panthers this season. He’s in-sync with McCown, not needing a whole lot of targets to get it done, either, averaging just 6.6 targets per game in that span. His 15.0 air yards per target ranks 10th in the NFL, giving him plenty of opportunity on those targets. The Chiefs have struggled with wide receivers this year from a large picture, but they’ve played better as of late, not allowing a wide receiver to top 55 yards in each of their last two games. Now, it’s important to note that it was the Bills and Giants wide receivers (without Sterling Shepard), but it’s still a step in the right direction. Anderson only runs about 20 percent of his routes in Marcus Peters’ coverage, so it’s possible that he’d match-up with Darrelle Revis and Steven Nelson the majority of the time, meaning he’s a must-play WR2.
Jermaine Kearse: He trails Anderson by just eight targets on the season, so he’s getting plenty of opportunity as well. His seven catches and 105 yards in Week 12 were both season highs for him, and it was also the first time he’d topped 38 yards since back in Week 6. Still, he’s going to see Marcus Peters in coverage the majority of the time, and although Peters hasn’t played like his Pro-Bowl self, he’s still an above-average cornerback. He’s allowed just one touchdown in his coverage since Week 5, so betting on Kearse as anything more than a low-end WR4 would be a mistake.
TEs
Travis Kelce: Imagine having one of the best tight ends in the game and then targeting him just four times in a game you threw the ball 36 times. Welcome to Kelce’s world. This offense has all sorts of problems, but he’s not one of them. The Jets have allowed some pretty massive games to tight ends this year, including Rob Gronkowski putting up 83 yards and two touchdowns against them. Kelce has not gone two games in a row with less than seven targets or 8.9 fantasy points this year, so you should be expecting a bounce-back against the Jets. He’s arguably the TE1 this week.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: You’ve started to see a fall with Seferian-Jenkins while Anderson has been dominating the touchdowns, as that was his bread and butter to start the season. He’s never been much of a yardage guy, though his 16 targets over the last two weeks should lead to safe fantasy performances in the end. He actually should have had a touchdown in Week 12, but he dropped it in the end zone, so at least he’s still getting targeted there. The Chiefs haven’t been the same dominant defense against tight ends since losing Eric Berry in Week 1, but they haven’t been bad, either. There have been five tight ends to total at least 60 yards against them, including Charles Clay last week. The downfall is that Seferian-Jenkins has finished with 6.7 or less points in the games he doesn’t score, and the Chiefs have allowed just one tight end touchdown on the year. He’s just a high-end TE2 for this game.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Total: 49.0
Line: NE by 8.0
QBs
Tom Brady: When you come here to read Brady, you don’t come to read about whether or not you are starting him in season-long, but rather to find out if he’s worth paying up for in DFS. Despite the fact that the Bills have allowed 27 or more points to four of their last six opponents, just one of the quarterbacks finished as a top-10 option against them. But is that because their pass defense is so good? They are sacking the opposing quarterback on just 4.1 percent of dropbacks, the second-worst mark in the NFL, while Brady is sacked on just 5.5 percent of his dropbacks to begin with. The Bills have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns over their last four games, so teams haven’t necessarily needed to throw for touchdowns. They obviously can allow them, as Jameis Winston had a season-high 384 yards and three touchdowns against them. This is likely a game where the Patriots will pick their poison and score whichever way they want, meaning Brady is a better tournament play than he is a cash-game play.
Tyrod Taylor: The Patriots defense has really turned things around since Week 7, holding four straight quarterbacks to 11.5 or less fantasy points, which included Derek Carr and Philip Rivers. Now they do run a lot of man coverage, which could leave them susceptible to a mobile quarterback like Taylor, as most defensive backs will have their backs turned to him. It’s the reason that four quarterbacks have been able to run for 21 or more yards against them. In two games against the Patriots last year, Taylor threw for 246 yards and one touchdown in the first meeting, and then 183 yards with no touchdowns in the second one. In those games, he accumulated 76 rushing yards and a touchdown, making him a high-end QB2/low-end QB1 in those games. That’s likely where he’ll finish this game as well, knowing the Patriots will come out looking like a similar defense to the one they fielded last year.
RBs
Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, and James White: The question that most should be asking right now is, “Why did the Patriots even sign Mike Gillislee?” He’s now been inactive the last few weeks, though you have to wonder if he’ll be active against his former team. As of now, we have to assume he won’t be with how well Lewis and Burkhead are playing. Lewis has averaged 13.0 carries over his last six games, though he’s not being used in the passing game, which limits him to the RB2 conversation. Burkhead even started to get goal-line work last week and has touched the ball an average of 12.0 times over the last four games. Both of them need to be in lineups until they give us a reason not to, especially against a Bills defense that has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns over their last five, even though the Chiefs failed to record even one last week. Coming into that game against the Chiefs, the Bills had allowed nine top-30 PPR running backs in their last four games. Lewis is a high-end RB2, Burkhead is also in the RB2 conversation, and White is worth RB4 consideration. Yes, the Bills run defense is that bad.
LeSean McCoy: You know those games where McCoy gets less than 15 carries? You know, the five times it’s happened this year? This is likely to be one of those games, though we know McCoy has the skill-set to make something happen any time the ball is in his hands. I say this because since Week 1 where Kareem Hunt totaled 17 carries, no other running back has reached the 15-carry mark against the Patriots. It’s the reason we’ve seen just four running backs finish with more than nine points in standard leagues. Looking through their game logs, it would appear that McCoy should be able to do some work through the air if they let him, as Travaris Cadet has seen nine targets the last two weeks, while McCoy has seen just five of them. It’s a bit concerning that they’re taking away one of the things McCoy does best, as there have been nine running backs to total 24 or more receiving yards against the Patriots, including four of them with more than 50 yards. He’s still an RB1, but there are some warning signs about his volume in this game.
WRs
Brandin Cooks: We knew it would take a little bit of time for the chemistry to develop between Brady and Cooks, but after 232 yards and two touchdowns the last two weeks, I think it’s fair to say we’ve reached that point. The Bills cornerback duo of Tre’Davious White and E.J. Gaines will attempt to keep him in check, which is something they’ve done well for the most part of the season. There have been just five wide receivers to finish top-18 against them in any given week and all of them have totaled at least 10 targets. That’s a number that Cooks has seen just once this season. We don’t know if Chris Hogan is even close to returning, as we’ve heard nothing about his status, so maybe it’s possible. I’m still a bit weary about this matchup, though, making Cooks a high-end WR2, rather than the WR1 he’s been the last few weeks.
Danny Amendola: We have to assume that Hogan is going to miss another game since he hasn’t practiced for weeks, so this is a week where Amendola could make an impact. He’s going to have the best matchup on the field against Leonard Johnson, who Keenan Allen destroyed for 12/159/2 just two weeks ago. Not to say that Amendola is close to that level, but he plays out of the slot on 90 percent of his snaps, meaning he’ll avoid White and Gaines. If Hogan misses this game, Amendola is going to be on the WR3 radar.
Zay Jones: While Jones has stepped up from a fantasy perspective, he’s still one of the least efficient wide receivers in all of football. There have been 113 wide receivers who have seen at least 20 targets, and Jones ranks 110th among them in yards per target. His 4.4 yards per targets means it would take 23 targets in order for him to hit 100 yards. Again, he’s stepped up his performance as of late, but as his 10-target, 33-yard performance in Week 12 shows, he’s not the most reliable receiver. Now the bright side is that he’s seen at least seven targets in four of his last five games, including each of his last three games. The issue is that he’ll be covered by Malcolm Butler or Stephon Gilmore in this game, making him just a desperation WR4/WR5 option. Those two have really stepped up their play as of late.
Jordan Matthews: Why did the Bills trade for a wide receiver they weren’t going to use? I mean, 33 targets heading into Week 13? I know he missed two games, but he’s seen more than four targets just twice all season. He’s got the best matchup on the field in this game, as he’ll face one of the Patriots slot corners, though we never really know which one. Knowing that the Patriots opponents average 37.6 pass attempts per game (2nd-most) and just 23.6 rushing attempts per game (4th-lowest), it could be a week where Matthews is utilized, though they’ve given no indication that will happen, making him just a WR5 in a great spot.
TEs
Rob Gronkowski: We knew it was coming, right? A player as talented as Gronkowski can only stay silent on the stat sheet for so long, so his 82-yard, two-touchdown performance shouldn’t surprise you. It also helped that Martellus Bennett was inactive, as he’d been stealing some targets from Gronkowski for some reason. The Bills have allowed just two tight end touchdowns on the season (both to O.J. Howard), but they have allowed 616 yards to them, the ninth-most in the league. Looking at their competition played this year, there’s little talent on the list, making Gronkowski a stud TE1 once again, and one that you shouldn’t avoid in DFS.
Charles Clay: Since returning from his knee injury, Clay has totaled just 11 targets in three games, lowering his fantasy floor that looked great through the first four weeks of the season. This is one of those weeks where we’re expecting Taylor to throw more than normal, which gives appeal to Clay, especially against the Patriots. They’ve shored up their pass defense for the most part, but there have still been seven different tight ends who’ve been able to finish as top-12 options against them, including three top-four. Because of the expected game-flow, Clay should see five-plus targets in a plus-matchup, so consider him a safe low-end TE1.
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
Total: 38.0
Line: EVEN
QBs
Trevor Siemian: And… we’re back to square one. Oddly enough, Siemian is someone we want to take a close look at this week. Playing against the Dolphins has been a gift for quarterbacks over the last two months, and they just lost their best edge defender in William Hayes for the year. He excelled against the run, but they’ll miss his presence everywhere. They have allowed 16 passing touchdowns in their last six games, including 10 of them in the last three. Matt Cassel was the only quarterback all year to throw for less than 6.5 yards per attempt, and considering how bad the Broncos have been running the ball, we may see Siemian hit 35-plus pass attempts. It’s not the easiest thing to do – put Siemian in your lineup, that is – but it’s also not the worst idea if you’re looking for someone who offers a 225-yard, one-touchdown floor. He’s a safe middling-QB2 this week with upside for more.
Jay Cutler: After missing the Patriots game and allowing Matt Moore to look pretty bad, Cutler doesn’t seem so bad now, eh? He’s not the solution to their problems, but those who said Moore is a better quarterback were a little out of line. Cutler isn’t a quarterback you want to trust with your fantasy season, especially against the Broncos pass rush. It’s odd, too, because the Broncos have allowed two more passing touchdowns (24) than any team in the NFL. Crazy, right? They’ve now allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 8-of-11 games, which is why all but two quarterbacks have finished in the top-18 against them this year. They are also going to be without Aqib Talib, their best perimeter cornerback, which can’t help matters. Even though Cutler may throw a touchdown or two, he’s impossible to trust in season-long leagues more than a low-end QB2.
RBs
C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker: So much for hoping that one of them would get the workhorse job once they fired Mike McCoy, as Booker had six carries, while Anderson had five carries against the Raiders last week. The Broncos offensive line isn’t run-blocking very well, something they tried to fix last offseason. Whatever the case, it’s going to be impossible to trust either of them in fantasy, even in a great matchup against the Dolphins. Why? Because the Raiders defense has been pounced all season, yet they totaled just 30 rushing yards on 13 carries as a team against them last week. Jamaal Charles is still involved getting a few touches every week as well, creating an even bigger mess. Despite the fact that the Dolphins have allowed 175 or more rushing yards in two of their last three games, Anderson is just an RB4, while Booker has the slight edge because of his work in the passing game.
Kenyan Drake: The time is now, Mr. Drake. He’s looked great since the Dolphins traded away Jay Ajayi, though Adam Gase was hesitant to give him a large role. Well, now he’s got to, seeing that Damien Williams is likely out for the year. Since the trade, Drake has racked up 257 total yards and two touchdowns on 44 touches. The matchup with the Broncos is far from ideal, though they have slipped a bit as of late. Over their last four games, they have allowed nine running back touchdowns, with four of them coming through the air, something we saw Drake do just last week. Combining the touches of Drake and Williams, you’re looking at a running back who’ll see 15-plus touches a week, putting him in RB2 range more often than not. The Broncos are still allowing just 3.28 yards per carry on the season, so it’s a tougher matchup than most, but I’m still plugging him in as a high-end RB3.
WRs
Demaryius Thomas: In Thomas’ last 14 games with quarterbacks not named Brock Osweiler, he’s scored zero touchdowns. In Thomas’ last three games with Osweiler, he’s scored three touchdowns. Who would have thought that Thomas’ best production would come with a quarterback most teams couldn’t give away? He did play well with Siemian earlier in the season, though, so seeing him return to the lineup isn’t a bad thing. The matchup with the Dolphins inexperienced cornerbacks is a good one, as we’ve watched them allow at least one receiver to top 80 yards in each of the last three games. Knowing that Sanders isn’t quite 100 percent, Thomas is the one I’m trusting here. Play him as a WR2 and expect somewhere in the range of 5-7 catches for 70-90 yards.
Emmanuel Sanders: Outside of that one Patriots game, Sanders has been absent in fantasy football since back in Week 6. His ankle injury must be giving him more issues than we thought, though he looked really agile when beating Malcolm Butler like a drum. We do know that Siemian disperses the targets pretty evenly between him and Thomas, so we may see a resurgence if he’s healthy. Pay attention to the practice reports, because if he gets in a full practice by the end of the week, he could pop back on the fantasy radar as a WR3, as his matchup is golden.
Jarvis Landry: Well, he didn’t score last week, but he did deliver eight catches for 70 yards. He’s now finished with at least 15 PPR points in seven of his last eight games. This week, however, that’s very unlikely to happen, as he’ll be covered by Chris Harris Jr., the best slot cornerback in the game. Over the last two years, Harris Jr. has allowed just a 54 percent catch rate out of the slot (extremely hard to do with slippery slot wide receivers), while allowing just under 10 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 23.8 targets. It’s going to be hard to sit a guy who is seeing 10-plus targets per game, so view him as a WR3 in both standard and PPR formats this week whose upside is limited.
DeVante Parker: I was really interested to see the snap counts after last week’s game, as I expected to see Stills with more snaps than Parker. Oddly enough, they played the exact same amount of snaps. With the way the Dolphins coaching staff has talked about Parker the last few weeks, it wouldn’t shock me to see a demotion, though they run a lot of 3WR sets, so it wouldn’t change a whole lot. The great thing for Parker is getting Cutler back under center, as he’s shown the most willingness to target Parker, even when he’s covered. The Broncos will be without Aqib Talib, which is a huge upgrade to both Parker and Stills, as they’ll see Bradley Roby and Brendan Langley in coverage. Langley is the Broncos third-round pick from this year’s draft who saw his first meaningful game action last week when Talib was ejected. There’s a lot more risk with Parker than I’d hoped, but he’s still on the WR3 radar as the Dolphins primary red zone threat this week.
Kenny Stills: With or without Matt Moore, Stills has been getting a bigger role in this offense due to Parker’s struggles. He’s now seen at least six targets in five of the last six games, including eight or more in three of them. Knowing that Parker is trending in the wrong direction, it’s not crazy to think that Stills has a bigger role going forward, though he’s not the “throw it up to him” type of receiver that Parker is. Knowing the pass-rush that the Broncos bring, it’s hard to see Stills having a ton of time to get downfield, but with all of his targets, he’s on the WR4 radar this week.
TEs
Austin Traylor: We talked about him here last week, saying that he was someone to watch going forward. While he actually took a step backward in snap percentage, he still led the team in snaps, though Virgil Green was close and they both got three targets. This isn’t a timeshare you want to mess with, as even a touchdown would likely feel empty because of the low yardage totals they’re putting out. There’s been just two games this year a Broncos tight end totaled more than 44 yards, and it was the injured A.J. Derby both times. Feel free to move on.
Julius Thomas: You have to give the guy credit coming back from the dead, as Thomas has now posted at least 5.2 standard points in four of his last six games, after not topping 2.9 points in any of the first five games. His targets have received a slight bump and that’s because the defense has put them in much more passing situations. This week looks like a low-scoring one, though the Broncos have struggled with tight ends this year, allowing 8-of-11 tight ends to finish as TE13 or better. Because of that, Thomas is on the high-end TE2 radar this week.
