Welcome in to another edition of MLB value plays. An awesome weekend of sports lies ahead and there is plenty of baseball on tap today. Pay attention though, there are a few double-headers on the docket and that could create some interesting MLB lineups this evening as teams try to make up for the sloppy first month of weather. For the purpose of this article, we’ll focus on tonight’s eight-game slate on DraftKings. This slate offers some decent high-end options at every position. To get up to those pricey arms or bats in good matchups, we’ll need to carve out some salary cap space. I’ll look at some value plays to help us get a little more roster flexibility during lineup construction and help us fit a few studs in. Ready? Let’s Go!
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Pitcher
Joey Lucchesi (SD): $7,800 vs. NYM
Buyer Beware! Lucchesi (-146) has been the early fantasy darling of 2018 across the DFS and seasonal landscape. His tricky delivery has proven to be deceptive to hitters, leading to early success. Instead of hyping him up, I’m taking a moment to encourage you to only use him in GPP tonight. I expect a decent amount of run support for him tonight from the Padres. The lefty gets the Mets at home in a tricky matchup though. Vegas only has New York pegged for a 3.5 run total, likely because Lucchesi is in Petco again and they’re sitting at just a 77 wRC+ versus southpaws. However, right-handed bats can hit him as evidenced by a stark difference of almost three full points on in his xFIP. The Mets could roll out an overly righty-heavy lineup with Jay Bruce banged up, so be ready to pivot to the young rookie below for your cash games and save $600 in the process.
Other Notables
Jack Flaherty (STL): $7,200 @ PIT
Catcher
Salvador Perez (KC): $3,300 vs. CHW
Salvy is back as he knocked a homer in his 2018 debut earlier this week. The White Sox are likely to roll out Hector Santiago for the second leg of today’s doubleheader. Sal has gone deep against him twice before, which isn’t a surprise considering his ISO is nearly 30 points higher against southpaws for his career. DraftKings hasn’t adjusted his price yet, so play him while he’s still low-priced as the tenth best catcher on the slate.
Other Notables
Caleb Joseph (BAL): $2,500 vs. DET
First Base
Wilmer Flores (NYM): $3,100 @ SD
Flores absolutely crushes southpaws so he’s firmly in play here in all formats. As mentioned above, Jay Bruce should be out and he’ll slot in at 1B at a very affordable price tag. The only thing not to like is the ballpark, but even Petco can’t suppress Flores when a lefty is on the bump. For his career, he’s exhibited platoon splits of .237 ISO, .345 wOBA and 121 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching. Lock him in, I certainly will be in cash games.
Other Notables
Jose Martinez (STL): $3,500 @ PIT
Second Base
Neil Walker (NYY): $3,000 @ LAA (also 1B eligible)
Walker returned to the Yanks lineup last night. While his main stats are unappealing, his batted ball data has been really solid. His elevated hard hit and flyball rates mixed with increased exit velocity are all encouraging. I’ll be upfront and honest that I’m paying up at the keystone. There isn’t much to like as far as middle infielders go, outside of both Yankee 2B that is. There is still plenty of value out there to afford a stud with built-in upside.
Other Notables
Gleyber Torres (NYY): $3,400 @ LAA (also 3B eligible)
Third Base
Evan Longoria (SF): $3,400 vs. LAD
Longo vs. a Lefty is a thing and it has been for a long time. Not only do his career splits massive against lefties, but also this season so far it has been more extreme with four of his five dingers coming against southpaws. The robust .432 ISO almost matched his .453 wOBA in 2018, add in a 192 wRC+ and it makes him a great play at this price tonight. If you want to save $600 at the hot corner, there’s another lefty-killer available below…
Other Notables
Danny Valencia (BAL): $2,800 vs. DET (also 1B eligible)
Shortstop
Tim Anderson (CHW): $4,000 @ KC
$4k is always a stretch on value, but Anderson will likely pay it off tonight. Cheap middle infielders are just not that appealing as I mentioned above. Anderson’s true value comes in the form of his speed and he’s actually been getting on base more in 2018. He carries a career .356 wOBA and 124 wRC+ versus lefties, this year, his marks of .472/.201 are impressive as he’s also showing he has pop by posting a nice .308 ISO. He’s in play today!
Other Notables
Luis Sardinas (BAL): $2,600 vs. DET (also 3B eligible)
Outfield
Baltimore Bats vs. Detroit:
Craig Gentry: $2,400; Anthony Santander: $2,800; Adam Jones: $3,800; Trey Mancini: $3,700 (also 1B eligible)
From the game theory side, Tigers at Orioles has a high implied game total approaching ten runs, likely to be there at first pitch. Both team worth stacking but the O’s are probably going to be a popular spot on the slate. There are excellent values on the Baltimore side with an opportunity for them to unleash on Francisco Liriano. Getting Valencia or Joseph in a stack with Manny Machado, or some of these guys here could go a long way today. I don’t mind a full-on game stack with some Detroit bats versus Andrew Cashner in this spot either as I think this game could get sloppy in a hurry.
Gentry is a speed play for stolen base upside on the cheap, but could get yanked early for a favorable platoon situation against a bullpen arm. I like Jones the most for his recent batted ball data being higher than normal, but he’s on the high-side of salary. Mancini will be popular just because he’s hitting leadoff but don’t be afraid to plug in Santander instead, who should hit in the seven spot. Like Jones, he also has nice batted ball data of late and switch-hits, so he’ll likely play out all nine innings unlike Gentry. The additional $400 could be worth it for the lower ownership percentage and extra layer of security for an additional plate appearance, or two. Stack them up, play some in cash, take your pick, they’re almost all in play tonight.
Other Notables
Derek Fisher (HOU): $3,100 vs. OAK
Manuel Margot (SD): $3,300 vs. NYM
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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.
