Skip to main content

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Saturday (4/30)

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Saturday (4/30)

A ten-game slate awaits us on Monday night. Just like last month, I’ll be bringing you the value plays on the month’s final day once again. There are quite a few affordable spots to open up enough salary to construct a lineup that allows you to pay up for the pitching and hitting you want to feel good about cashing on DraftKings. I personally love paying up for Jake Arrieta (-148) tonight and finding value elsewhere. There aren’t any weather concerns, so all the games are in play…some more so than others as usual. Without further delay, are you ready? Let’s go!

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool partner-arrow

Pitcher

Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS): $7,700 vs. KC

E-Rod has a tasty matchup on deck against a Royals team that lacks pop and has struggled since Opening Day. Kansas City strikes out over a quarter of the time and they place in the bottom third of the league in all advanced metrics against lefties. They only have a 3.5 implied run total tonight and Rodriguez is a heavy (-227) favorite. He’s in play in all formats, but will likely garner some hefty ownership as a result. He’s allowed just 27% hard contact in the last two weeks and is working deeper into games. He has the potential to go deeper in this game, which should result in increased K potential and a solid chance for a win. Again, he’ll be popular, so if you want a more contrarian play at the same price…see the man below.

Other Notables

Tanner Roark (WAS): $7,700 vs. PIT

Catcher

Jason Castro (MIN): $2,600 vs. TOR

I’ve detailed Castro’s platoon splits earlier this year. Castro is likely to hit ninth and he isn’t hitting that well of late as he hasn’t gone deep since that day in March when I recommended him. This time, his price is $400 lower. Punting catcher not your thing? If you want a little more upside and more favorable lineup spot, spend up $300 more to Chris Iannetta, who has good platoon splits versus LHP and get’s the wind blowing out at Wrigley.

Other Notables

Chris Iannetta (COL): $2,900 @ CHC

First Base

Jesus Aguilar (MIL): $3,100 @ CIN

If Ramos doesn’t play, you can get exposure to the Rays matchup against the gas can known as Jordan Zimmerman in other ways, like Brad Miller. He’s exhibited excellent batted ball data of late and will probably bat cleanup. The matchup is as nice as this price, but I just hate playing Miller at 1B.

Instead, look at Aguilar for just $100 more. He’s playing more as a result of the Eric Thames injury and has nice career splits against lefty arms as evidenced by his .361 wOBA and 122 wRC+. I like Aguilar, Miller and Logan Morrisson (below) in that order, they’re all in the same price range so pay attention to who’s starting. The ballpark alone warrants playing Aguilar, but just in case he’s not in the lineup, pivot to Miller or LoMo for $200 less.

Other Notables

Logan Morrison (MIN): $2,900 @ TOR

Second Base

Scooter Gennett (CIN): $3,600 vs. MIL

Ever since his four HR game last season, he’s earned fantasy respect. For those who’ve been grinding MLB DFS for years, we know he’s a nice guy to play against RHP. Gennett maintains nice career platoon splits, but also has flashed some impressive batted ball data, indicating he could be breaking out soon. I’m not saying four homers are in store, but his pop is for real and it’s warming up in Cincy in a nice hitter’s park. Time to hop on Scooter.

Other Notables

Daniel Descalso (ARI): $2,800 @ ARI (also 3B eligible)

Third Base

Evan Longoria (SF): $3,600 vs. SD

On Saturday, I recommended him against a lefty in the nightcap of the LAD @ SF doubleheader. He had a nice game for you if you plugged him in. Let’s hit rewind: “Longo vs. a Lefty is a thing and has been for a long time. Not only do his career splits massive against lefties, but also this season so far it has been more extreme with four of his five dingers coming against southpaws. The robust .432 ISO almost matched his .453 wOBA in 2018, add in a 192 wRC+ and it makes him a great play at this price tonight.” Fast Forward: He went deep again last night, he’s firmly in play in all formats.

Other Notables

Daniel Robertson (TAM): $3,700 @ DET (also 2B eligible)

Shortstop

Orlando Arcia (MIL): $2,700 @ CIN

Arcia has shown some promising batted ball data recently, most in his average exit velocity. He’s super cheap and he’s been hitting some ropes and getting a little unlucky. There’s no better cure than warm weather at the Great American Small Park. Well, Coors would be best, but you know what I mean. Baseballs tend to fly out of there, so I like some Brewers quite a bit today. Arcia is also likely to get a few ABs against the horrid Reds bullpen.

Other Notables

Eduardo Escobar (MIN): $3,800 @ TOR (also 3B eligible)

Outfield

Andrew McCutchen (SF): $3,500 vs. SD

I forgot to put Cutch in my Saturday value plays. He didn’t have a great game, but did walk twice and scored both times he got on base. Until DraftKings boost up both his and Evan Longoria‘s prices, I’ll be putting them in this article like clockwork. He’s a beast against southpaws. I’ve thrown these numbers out before, but just to revisit, how does a .243 ISO, .409 wOBA and 161 wRC+ against lefties sound to you? Yes, he’s also in play here.

Matt Adams (WAS): $3,400 vs. PIT (also 1B eligible)

“Big City” has always had big numbers when it comes to facing righties. Most of his career has been as a platoon specialist and his track record speaks for itself with career marks of .211 ISO, .355 wOBA and 125 wRC+ versus RHP. He’s a good bet to hit fourth or fifth tonight as the Nats continue to deal with injuries. For now, assuming he’s slotted in the starting lineup, he makes for an affordable play with major power upside.

Jesse Winker $3,200/Adam Duvall $3,500: (CIN) vs. MIL

I like these guys for two completely different reasons, but they share a common strength, which if you’ve been paying attention is the ballpark factor. Winker will most likely hit leadoff for the Reds and his price is excellent when you consider his recent batted ball data, especially the spiked hard hit%.

Duvall is a power bat with raw power upside to great to ignore at home. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate as a lot of people probably won’t play him against a RHP. However, all of his batted ball data is jumping and I love the mix of hard contact, flyball rate and increased batted ball distance.

Other Notables

Albert Almora (CHC): $3,400 vs. COL
Eddie Rosario $3,600/Robbie Grossman $3,100: (MIN) @ TOR

Check out DraftKings MLB Moonshot contest partner-arrow

Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.

More Articles

MLB DFS Picks, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props: Monday (5/13)

MLB DFS Picks, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props: Monday (5/13)

fp-headshot by Josh Shepardson | 1 min read
Fantasy Baseball Injury News: Austin Riley, Shohei Ohtani, J.T. Realmuto, Kodai Senga

Fantasy Baseball Injury News: Austin Riley, Shohei Ohtani, J.T. Realmuto, Kodai Senga

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
20 Things to Watch: Kyle Manzardo, Robert Gasser, Paul Skenes (Fantasy Baseball)

20 Things to Watch: Kyle Manzardo, Robert Gasser, Paul Skenes (Fantasy Baseball)

fp-headshot by Justin Mason | 3 min read
10 Burning Questions: Jordan Montgomery, Paul Goldschmidt, Ronald Acuna (Fantasy Baseball)

10 Burning Questions: Jordan Montgomery, Paul Goldschmidt, Ronald Acuna (Fantasy Baseball)

fp-headshot by Corey Pieper | 4 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

3 min read

MLB DFS Picks, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props: Monday (5/13)

Next Up - MLB DFS Picks, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props: Monday (5/13)

Next Article