There’s football on as I’m writing this. Actual, regular season, NFL football. Now, that might not mean anything to a baseball purist, but, to me, it makes one thing exceptionally clear: the Fantasy Baseball season is coming to an end. That’s a double-edged sword. Obviously, we all love playing Fantasy Baseball, yet these next three weeks – the final three weeks – are why we do it. Keeping tabs on the Arizona Fall League for that perfect dynasty pick; watching weekday West Coast games on an East Coast schedule; praying at the sight of Dr. James Andrews – it’s all leading to playoff time. Going after that Fantasy Championship. We’re not playing around anymore in Week 23. Every move, every thought, every pickup has a purpose. It’s what makes two-start pitchers one of the most crucial aspects of head-to-head leagues. So, let’s break it all down.
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Don’t Think Twice
Corey Kluber (9/10 @TB, 9/16 vs. DET)
Justin Verlander (9/10 @DET, 9/16 vs. ARI)
J.A. Happ (9/10 @MIN, 9/16 vs. TOR)
Mike Foltynewicz (9/10 @SF, 9/16 vs. WAS)
Zack Wheeler (9/11 vs. MIA, 9/16 @BOS)
German Marquez (9/10 vs. ARI, 9/15 @SF)
Widely-Owned Options
Zack Greinke (9/11 @COL, 9/16 @HOU)
Oh, boy. It’s difficult to ever really project with confidence in baseball, but a knowledgeable Greinke owner could have conceivably been fretting this week since back in mid-March. It’s not only even that these two games are in Colorado and Houston that makes them so unappealing, it’s that they’re just not in Arizona. The new humidor has been Greinke’s best friend in 2018 and his numbers get a little hairy away from its comforting environment. The veteran’s FIP jumps to 4.36 on the road so far this season, with Greinke surrendering a whopping 1.83 home runs per nine. In a 10-man league, I’d seriously consider sitting him, but the strikeout upside probably forces your hand in anything bigger. Best of luck, you’re probably going to need it.
Rich Hill (9/10 @CIN, 9/15 @STL)
He’s never been the most consistent player in the world, however, when healthy, Hill does possess an extremely high ceiling with all the win expectancy advantages that suiting up for the Dodgers entails. In fact, since July 20th – a span of 53.2 innings, Hill has pitched to a 2.87 ERA with a 3.45 FIP and 28.4% strikeout rate. He’ll easily surpass double-digit strikeouts in Week 23 and, though one of the games is at Great American Ball Park, he’s held opponents to a .290 wOBA on the road in 2018. It’s not ideal, but it never quite is with Hill.
Mike Fiers (9/11 @BAL, 9/16 @TB)
You take the good with the bad when it comes to Fiers. Yes, he’ll give up his fair share of home runs – as most fly ball oriented pitchers do – but the strikeout rate has been too good to ignore since he made his way to Oakland. In 33.2 frames with the Athletics, Fiers has retired 35 opponents on strikes. He’s also allowed seven long balls, despite all but one of those outings taking place at the Coliseum – the worst home run stadium in the American League according to ESPN Park Factors. Again, it’s a concern, especially with both his starts scheduled on the road in Week 23, yet not one that can overshadow a date with the Orioles. Baltimore has just an 85 wRC+ and .297 OBP across the last 30 days, something the pair with a 12.1% swinging strike rate. They’re brutal.
Dereck Rodriguez (9/10 vs. ATL, 9/16 vs. COL)
Sometimes it’s difficult to understand why particular pitchers tend to throw better at home. In the case of Rodriguez, that is most certainly not the circumstance. AT&T Park has long been a haven for pitchers and the 26-year-old rookie seems to have figured that fact out quickly. Over 58.2 innings thrown, a span in which he’s seen 230 hitters, Rodriguez has held his opposition to a paltry .254 wOBA. He’s also, regardless of setting, walking just 6.9% of batters faced and surrendering only 0.56 home runs per nine – the seventh-lowest figure of the 151 pitchers to toss at least 80 frames in 2018. That’s a combination that prevents blow-ups. Rodriguez is a surprisingly high-floor option for your playoff needs.
Jose Quintana (9/10 vs. MIL, 9/16 vs. CIN)
If an exasperated shrug took the form of a pitcher, it would be Quintana in 2018. There’s simply not a ton to get excited about, but he’s still useful enough where he probably warrants a roster spot in Week 23. If we really want to be optimistic about it, the southpaw has allowed only six earned runs over his past four starts, earning a 2.75 FIP across 22.2 innings. His strikeout rate is under 20% in that span, however, his opponent contact rate is just 16.9%. Again, it’s unlikely he’ll carry your team to victory single-handedly next week, yet, if you’re looking for someone to help stuff the counting-stat categories, Quintana has value.
Jake Arrieta (9/10 vs. WAS, 9/16 vs. MIA)
It has been a weird six weeks for the 32-year-old. I’ll be frank, he hasn’t pitched well on paper, though I’m sure you could have inferred that from the fact he’s given up at least four earned runs in four of his past five starts. Still, he’s added an element to his game that seems almost foreign considering how long it’s been missing from his arsenal in 2018: the strikeout. It hasn’t been as obvious as his 11-strikeout effort in his last outing versus the Marlins, but, over his last 48.1 innings, Arrieta is carrying a 23.0% strikeout rate. Yes, that’s not quite Chris Sale, however, that number was just 16.8% prior to this run. As always, juxtaposition is everything. He’s also possessed a 50.0% groundball rate and 24.8% opponent hard contact rate over that span. I think he’s deserved better lately. Another go at Miami in Week 23 should help.
In the Danger Zone
Miles Mikolas (9/11 vs. PIT, 9/16 vs. LAD)
I’ve said this before about Mikolas, but he needs to have incredible ratios if he’s going to be fantasy-viable. The man just has zero strikeout upside, as evidenced by an ugly 13.3% strikeout rate since the beginning of August. Mikolas has also been absolutely destroyed by left-handed bats in that time. Like, to the tune of a .402 wOBA and 1.72 WHIP – not quite the embodiment of ratio dominance that I mentioned earlier. Yes, he’s been fantastic in St. Louis so far this season, however, his schedule looks daunting in Week 23. The Dodgers’ LHBs own the top wRC+ (124), wOBA (.352), and ISO (.228) off of right-handed pitching in 2018, while the Pirates also sit inside the top-10 in both wRC+ (109) and wOBA (.333). There’s a chance I miss out on a pair of decent outings by Mikolas next week, yet, even if that’s what the future holds, he might not even strike out seven guys in the process. I’ll shoot for higher upside elsewhere.
Tanner Roark (9/10 @PHI, 9/16 @ATL)
It’s sort of a rinse and repeat situation with Roark, as he profiles in not all that dissimilar a way to Mikolas. Although at least Mikolas tends to never blow-up your ERA, he’ll just have nights where he’s a much better real-life pitcher than fantasy commodity. Roark, on the other hand, sometimes straight up stinks. Sure, he had a really amazing seven-start run throughout August, a period of time where he compiled a 1.61 ERA and held opponents to a .225 wOBA. However, that run is bookended by some pretty horrendous outings. In fact, 10 of his 28 starts this season have ended in the RHP allowing four earned runs or more. For me, in the playoffs, it comes down to trust versus upside. I don’t trust Roark and he doesn’t offer much upside to offset those feelings. Maybe you feel differently, but, with those instincts, I don’t own him anywhere, so, I’m not the one who has to make this call.
Streamers Under 50%
Andrew Heaney (9/10 vs. TEX, 9/15 vs. SEA)
Wade LeBlanc (9/11 vs. SD, 9/16 @LAA)
Joe Musgrove (9/10 @STL, 9/16 @MIL)
Jake Odorizzi (9/11 vs. NYY, 9/16 @KC)
Lucas Giolito (9/10 @KC, 9/16 @BAL)
There are only three teams in baseball who have allowed their left-handed bats to accrue over 600 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season. Seattle sits third in the league in such occurrences at 610 times. Their ISO in these situations? Just .114. However, the Mariners pale in comparison to the Rangers. Really, everyone does. Texas has 779 left-on-left PAs – more than 130 plate appearances more than the next closest organization. The reason I bring this up is you want to be using Heaney under two very specific conditions. First, you want him at Angel Stadium, the place where both of his Week 23 outings are scheduled to go down. Second, you want Heaney to have the opportunity to face as many LHBs as physically possible, as he’s held them to a .240 wOBA overall and, just for fun, a .164 wOBA at home. Heaney hasn’t surrendered a single one of his 21 long balls to a lefty this year. You couldn’t ask for a better spot.
Streamers Under 25%
Mike Minor (9/10 @LAA, 9/16 @SD)
Sandy Alcantara (9/11 @NYM, 9/16 @PHI)
Despite the fact that his ERA is nearly two-and-a-half runs higher on the road than it is at home, I couldn’t be happier that Minor gets to put Globe Life Park in his rearview mirror in Week 23. ESPN Park Factors’ most favorable home run environment is not the place I want to be risking my playoff matchup. No, get Minor on the road. His ERA is playing tricks, anyway. Minor’s FIP is lower away from Texas, with the lefty surrendering fewer long balls than when pitching at home. It’s just that his strand rate is an unfathomable 56.6% – it’s hard to do much when you’re that unlucky. Home or road, Minor has been quality as of late, pitching to a 2.88 ERA with a 25.8% strikeout rate since July 24th. His competition is also lacking. Crazily, the Padres have actually fared better than the slumping Angels across the past 14 days entering play on Thursday, but neither has been good. Los Angeles’ .276 wOBA in that span is the lowest in the entire American League. If Minor’s out on your wire – grab him.
Not Unless You’re Desperate
Nathan Eovaldi
Jaime Barria
Brad Keller
Wade Miley
Aaron Sanchez
Jason Vargas
Trevor Richards
Adam Wainwright
Francisco Liriano
Andrew Cashner
Homer Bailey
Antonio Senzatela
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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.
