We have reached the first week of 4four or more teams on bye (GB, OAK, PIT, & SEA). The player pool is a little shallower than it has been thus far and we will have to use a little more strategy to get useful picks in the 4^th and 5^th rounds. This means deciding if you are more confident in your 11-20 ranked RBs or 11-20 ranked WR/TEs. If you are more confident in your 11-20 ranked RBs, you should plan on waiting to nab your second RB until the 4^th or 5^th round in most of your drafts.

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Quarterback

 
Carson Wentz has looked very good in his last three games. He has averaged 312 passing yards per game and thrown for seven TDs and zero INTs. If you look at points allowed to QBs, Carolina is in the middle of the pack. When you take a look at who Carolina has played, you will be less impressed with their numbers. They have played DAL, ATL, CIN, NYG and WAS. In fantasy PPG these QBs rank 28, 3, 18, 30, and 26. Besides Matt Ryan, it has been a cast of below average QBs that Carolina has faced off against. The Eagles also have Alshon Jeffery back and he looks closer to the 2013 version of himself where he recorded 1,400 receiving yards. On top of Jeffery, you have the ever-reliable Ertz, Agholor, Matthews, Clement, and Goedert to round out a nice stable of pass catchers. I have him ranked much higher than most so there is no reason to take him before the 4^th or 5^th round.

Matthew Stafford is another QB who has been on fire lately. After a horrendous start to the season at home against the Jets, Stafford has come on strong in the last four games. In these games, he has averaged 275 yards passing with nine TDs and one INT. This included the game against GB where Stafford only had to throw the ball 26 times because of the big lead the Lions grabbed in the first half. Miami has some playmakers and has caused their fair share of turnovers, but they have also allowed 278 passing yard per game which is 9^th worst in the league. Here are Miami’s opponent ranks in terms of passing YPG: 30, 27, 11, 19, 17, and 22. The Lions might very well have the best trio of WRs in the league, and I don’t see how Miami can keep all three covered. Stafford often goes undrafted and is a good target to take late in the 5^th round.

Running Back

 
Instead of talking about specific players in the RB section I am going to talk about the strategy I am using this week. I always try a few different strategies in my first five or six drafts of the week and I have to say I do not like my teams where I waited until the 4^th or 5^th round to take my 2^nd RB. I will be taking two RBs in the first three rounds with the rest of my drafts unless my top 12 RBs are gone by the time I make my 3^rd pick.

I am not confident at all in my RBs ranked 13-20.  Yeldon is banged up and Fournette has not been ruled out. While I don’t expect Fournette to play, I also didn’t expect Breida to play last week. Buffalo will be rolling out Derek Anderson this week against the Colts. Anderson has had four starts in the last seven seasons and will have less than two weeks on the Bills roster when he takes the field Sunday. This offense will be an absolute mess and this severely clouds McCoy’s outlook. Drake has been very inconsistent with his workload. Cohen has come on lately, but we saw this last year where he would follow up two big games with a no-show. Breida has what seems like 10 nagging injuries and will be playing against the Rams who could go up big early. Kerryon Johnson is in a three-way timeshare and is playing less than 50% of Detroit’s offensive snaps (Riddick is now looking very questionable to play this week. If Riddick is out I would push Kerryon up to 13^th and would be much more comfortable taking him as my 2^nd RB). Peterson has a high ceiling but a low floor. He has scored 21.6, 6.5, 24, 5.2, and 9.7 fantasy points this season. Mack has the risk of re-injury at any time (he has already returned from injury and been re-injured earlier this season).

Several experts have Carlos Hyde and Jordan Howard in their top 20. Hyde has been highly inefficient and has seen his carries reduced each of the last three weeks. Howard is averaging 3.5 YPC on the season and has not caught a pass in his last two games. The Patriots are always a threat to build a big lead and this would cause Howard to fall victim to game script.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

 
Adam Thielen tops my ranks at WR for the first time…ever. In six games he is averaging over 13 targets per game and he hasn’t seen fewer than 10 targets in any game! He has eclipsed 100 yards receiving every game and has four TDs on the season. My main concern earlier in the season was that Cousins was throwing 50 times a game and if this number came down (which it seemed like it had to) Thielen’s fantasy points would come down with it. They didn’t. The last two weeks Thielen has seen 10 and 13 targets while Cousins has thrown for 37 and 34 pass attempts. The other concern was competition for targets with Diggs. Two weeks ago against the Eagles, Diggs had 11 targets and Thielen had 10. Even with the reduced number of pass attempts from Cousins, they found a way to get both of their playmakers the ball. Thielen is getting open and he is making plays. You can feel confident taking him at the middle to end of the first round. If I do this I like to take back-to-back RBs in the 2^nd and 3^rd round if I can get two RBs from my top 12.

Keenan Allen currently ranks 27^th in fantasy PPG. He is the clear No. 1 WR for the Chargers and has an elite 26% target share. He is averaging 8.5 targets per game in a highly efficient offense and he was used extensively in the running game last week (he ran four end-arounds for 41 yards). The Tennessee Titans have been a pretty solid defense this year. They allow the 5^th fewest fantasy points to QBs, the 4^th fewest fantasy points to RBs, the least fantasy points to TEs, but they do give up the 16^th most fantasy points to WRs. That isn’t to say that Tennessee is bad against WRs, but it is clearly the easiest way to attack their defense. Currently, Vegas has the Chargers projected to score 26 points and those points have to come from somewhere. I have done 11 drafts so far this week and Keenan Allen has gone in the 3^rd round every time (except when I took him in the 2^nd round). In drafts where I take two RBs in the first two rounds, I will be aiming for Allen in the 3^rd.

Sample Draft

My pick: Second

1^st Pick – Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
I have Gordon ranked above Barkley but it is very close for me. I had already taken Gordon three times and had not taken Barkley once. I don’t like to load up too much on any one player (no player has been in more than 40% of my lineups all year) so I went with Barkley here.

2^nd Pick – Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
WRs were flying off the board in this draft. There were 18 picks before me and it was an even split of nine RBs and nine WRs. Because I was picking 2^nd to last in this round, I knew there was only one team making two selections in between my 2^nd and 3^rd round picks. Four of my top 12 RBs were still left on the board and Allen was by far my best WR left so I took him knowing I would get one of my top 12 RBs in the 3^rd round.

3^rd Pick – Sony Michel (RB – NE)
This one was easy for me. I knew I wanted to take two RBs in the first three rounds and Michel was my top ranked RB left on the board.

4^th Pick – Zach Ertz (TE – PHI)
Again, I know there is only one team making two picks between my 4^th and 5^th round picks. With their first three picks they took a QB, an RB and a WR/TE. I needed a QB and a WR/TE and I knew that they had already taken their QB. I took my highest rated WR/TE which was Ertz.

5^th Pick – Jameis Winston (QB – TB)
I had to take a QB with my 5^th pick. Wentz was still available but again I had already taken him three times and I didn’t have Winston on any of my teams. I went with Winston to diversify my QB picks a bit.

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Steve Roy is a correspondent for FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him on Twitter @Rockhead_Roy.