Welcome to another edition of Players to Fade on FanDuel. It already feels like Christmas with a large 13-game main slate for the second consecutive week. DFS is harder than ever these days, and we need every edge we can get. It’s necessary to not only narrow it down to the best plays but also be aware of who to avoid on a week-to-week basis. I’ll do my best to identify some players that could end up being landmines that sink our FanDuel lineups. Whether overpriced or in a bad spot, here’s a list of players I’m avoiding in Week 14.
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Quarterback
Carson Wentz (PHI): $7,300 @ DAL
The Eagles passing offense is a strange beast since they acquired Golden Tate from the Lions. They essentially pepper the tight end position with targets and Carson Wentz has shown little interest in the rest of the passing options. With a stud TE, a big-body WR and a collection of slot WRs, it’s certainly understandable. The Eagles defense has been so beat up that they’re very thin at multiple positions. The Cowboys are in a great spot and should force the Eagles to pass more often than they’d like by shutting down the run as well. In addition, the Dallas passing defense has looked very impressive of late since these two teams last met, and the Eagles offensive line has a couple injured starters. This could be huge as the Boys already generate a ton of pressure to begin with. They should be able to get to Wentz frequently in this game at home in Jerry World. I’m staying far away from Wentz.
Running Back
Marlon Mack (IND): $6,500 @ HOU
Last week I mentioned that I tend to avoid running backs that play for road underdogs. I’ll give you two of those such RBs in today’s FanDuel Fades. Mack ended up clearing concussion protocol last week, just in time to put up 3.8 FanDuel points for fantasy owners. Coming off a clunker in a tough matchup, Mack gets an even taller task this week versus the Texans top-ranked DVOA run defense sitting fourth in yards per carry allowed to opposing backs. If Indy plays at the quick pace they have been all year, there is certainly a chance that Mack has a solid day if this game turns into a shootout, therefore making him a mere tournament option. He disappointed mightily last week, so his ownership is likely to be low, but I can’t see a scenario where Mack flourishes unless the Colts jump out to a sizable lead and try to eat clock. Stay away in cash and only use him in game stacks.
Gus Edwards (BAL): $6,400 @ KC
The Ravens actually get the league’s worst run defense DVOA this week. But they also get Kenneth Dixon back and that spells trouble for Gus the Bus. He was hobbled with a bum ankle last week and saw his snap share decrease with Ty Montgomery seeing the work in the passing game. The addition of Dixon and Baltimore’s tendency to switch backs like underwear has me very concerned when you consider there could very well be less carries in this game up for grabs. He’s very touchdown-dependent, and if the Ravens are down early there is a good chance they move to a more pass-heavy approach on offense, essentially phasing him out. Even when there are red zone rushing attempts to be had, Lamar Jackson is a threat at all times to house a bootleg or play-action fake. Simply put, less volume and too many cooks in the Baltimore kitchen has me staying away from Edwards in all formats. Jackson is the only Raven I’d even consider this week as the offense as a whole is not attractive, even with a higher projected team total.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (KC): $8,200 vs. BAL
With so much chatter about how defenses don’t matter this season, I’m always hesitant when pointing out bad matchups or WR-CB coverage. The Ravens are one of the few teams that actually make me discount receivers when building DFS lineups. By now, we know the extreme high-variance, high-ADOT targets that Hill sees are harder to convert. In the past, Hill has proven that he’s much better when it comes to converting those targets, which lessens the risk. His quarterback also has an electric arm and Hill was labeled “matchup-proof” earlier this season. He’s the ideal tournament WR every week as he has potential to catch a deep bomb or take a quick slant to the house. So what’s not to love? The price! Hill is suitable in an expensive game stack and like most of the Chiefs, he’s so expensive that he tends to be low-owned. You should never play Hill in cash games, though, unless the matchup is super favorable and it isn’t here. He’s a GPP-only darling. When he hits, he hits big…but he can be downright tilting when he duds and that’s my expectation this week. Again, you should only play him in GPPs as a part of a game stack. He’s too volatile.
Kenny Golladay (DET): $7,200 @ ARI
Six weeks ago, the Lions looked like they were on the way up. So much so, they acquire Snacks Harrison via trade. The offense was looking legit, with a potential Rookie of the Year candidate in Kerryon Johnson in the backfield and a trio of WRs most NFL teams would salivate over. Fast forward to last week…with one of those WRs out of town, one on IR, and the potential ROY on the shelf, the Lions are one of the worst offenses of recent memory. They don’t just have a shaky and beat up offensive line, they’re an ultra-conservative, slow-paced, and easily-predictable mess. The Rams showed everyone how to take care of this team last week by constantly putting a safety over the top of Golladay and forcing Detroit to beat you with LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick. In case you didn’t know, that’s not hard with Patrick Peterson shadow coverage for most of this game. The Lions seldom take shots downfield, seldom use play action, and it’s starting to look like QB Matt Stafford is in jeopardy of missing this game with a back injury. Some of Golladay’s target totals have been impressive over the last month, but these targets aren’t valuable in a putrid offense and it’s not a good idea to have exposure when his team favors new arrival Bruce Ellington over him for some reason. Do I sound like a bitter Lions fan? Well, I am! Hard pass here.
Alshon Jeffery (PHI): $6,300 @ DAL
My how the mighty have fallen. Jeffery looked like a beast in his season debut but has since been rather underwhelming. Since the Golden Tate trade, Zach Ertz has soaked up the majority of the passing targets by a considerable margin, leaving table scraps for the wideouts. Jeffery himself has only seen 21 targets in the last four games. The receiving corps is certainly talented, but this matchup against the Cowboys defense is also looking rough as they’re a top-three unit in fantasy points surrendered to opposing WRs. Byron Jones, the number two cornerback in the NFL per ProFootballFocus metrics, hasn’t allowed a WR touchdown in his coverage all season, and he’ll be assigned to Jeffery for most of this game. That’s not inspiring at all and Jeffery has also seen a reduction in snaps since the aforementioned trade. His usage, opportunity, and production are all in a free fall at the moment and it makes it impossible to trust him in all formats. There are much better options out there on a 13-game slate.
Tight End
Jordan Reed (WAS): $6,400 vs. NYG
If I were to tell you that Jordan Reed would not miss a single game due to injury in 2018, you’d probably think he’d be the NFC’s leading Pro Bowl vote recipient at tight end. Instead, Reed is having a disappointing season in which he hasn’t been able to get a consistent amount of targets for a variety of reasons. Coming off of two consecutive double-digit performances, Reed was trending in the right direction until last week’s contest where he finished with just five looks and backup QB Colt McCoy broke his leg. Now, with a third-string QB at the helm and a hefty price tag, considering Reed in any format is not recommended. His lack of fantasy production against average teams is concerning. His best performance this season was against the Texans and their 30th ranked DVOA against TEs. How can you justify paying this much for a tight end when there are so many better options for just a bit more (or less) on this massive slate? I certainly can’t, not with three viable plays both above and below him in the player pool.
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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.
