Week 9 was the year’s most interesting for spotting breakouts with a bevy of post-hype hitters making a name for themselves. Let’s dig in!
Twins outfielder Max Kepler exploded last week to the tune of a .635 xwOBA, the third-highest weekly measurement for any hitter this season. His box-score line was equally as impressive, registering three home runs, four doubles, 10 RBIs, and a .600 OBP. The German-born lefty has teased this breakout over the last year, doubling down on a high-contact, fly-ball heavy approach that is exceedingly rare in this day and age. Kepler is still only owned in 67% of ESPN leagues, so grab your shares now if still available.
It’s safe to say that Rafael Devers is in the midst of a breakout. The 22-year-old Boston third baseman has a 136 wRC+ on the season and just finished in the top-10 weekly xwOBA finishers for the second time in three weeks. Devers’ exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and xBA all reside in the 95th percentile or higher in 2019. The lone blemish on his resume is a middling fl-ball rate, which is the reason his barrel rate is at a career low this year. But it’s difficult to argue with an xStats batting line of .315/.375/.515 from a player as young as Devers.
If owners in deep leagues want to stay ahead of the curve, it’s time to pick up Brian Anderson. Although his season-long 86 wRC+ doesn’t inspire much confidence, he’s picked things up in May and is coming off a three-homer, .542 xwOBA week. Moreover, he has been incredibly unlucky in 2019 with a .296 wOBA that trails his .347 xwOBA by over 50 points. The main culprit behind this underperformance is a .282 BABIP well below the .332 level he posted in 2018. Fortunately, Anderson’s luck should improve in the near future given a hard-hit rate that resides in the 93rd percentile of hitters.
Last week’s article highlighted Toronto first baseman Justin Smoak as perhaps the best waiver-wire acquisition candidate of the season on the back of his 95th percentile showings in xSLG and xwOBA. He followed that up with with an absurd five home run week and another place in the top-10 xwOBA finishers. Amazingly, Smoak’s ownership rate actually went down over the last seven days, likely due to fantasy owners swapping him out for the recently promoted Cavan Biggio. It’s a rare opportunity to own discounted shares of a player after he starts filling up the stat sheet. Pick up Smoak now if he’s available in your league.
Atlanta shortstop Dansby Swanson profiles as the prototypical post-hype prospect. The 2015 first overall pick drew plenty of interest after his successful 2016 MLB debut, but poor sophomore and junior seasons left a bad taste in the mouths of fantasy owners. The result is that Swanson, despite being on pace for 30 home runs and 15 steals this season, is still only owned in roughly 55% of leagues. His xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, barrel rate, and sprint speed are all in the 80th+ percentile and he only just turned 25. Grab him before it’s too late.
Arizona first baseman Christian Walker has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, failing to record an extra-base hit since May 13. His outsized whiff and strikeout rates finally seem to be catching up to him while his eye at the plate has become exceedingly poor. It’s likely safe to drop Walker if you haven’t already. However, make sure to keep an eye on him. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both still in the top four percent of hitters. Don’t be surprised if the righty slugger turns things around in short order.
Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe has been walking a high-wire act similar to Walker, posting whiff and strikeout rates that make long-term success difficult to sustain. One of the reasons that he has stayed afloat with a 36.3% strikeout rate is that his wOBA has outpaced his xwOBA by over 40 points. Now is the time to either trade or drop Lowe.
After an impressive conclusion to 2018 that saw him bash 11 homers in the season’s final two months, Toronto outfielder Randal Grichuk found himself on many sleeper lists heading into 2019. Unfortunately, the 27-year old has regressed in nearly every aspect this year, sporting a career-low barrel rate of 7.3% to go along with a career-high whiff rate of 31.6%. The net result is a middling .281 xwOBA and 85 wRC+. Grichuk is a streaky hitter and could certainly go through another two-month hot stretch later this year, but there is no need to hold on in the interim.
While Eloy Jimenez initially experienced some difficulties adjusting to MLB pitching, namely against breaking balls, the White Sox uber-prospect has begun flashing glimpses of his elite potential. Last week, he smacked three home runs, each of which sailed over 410 feet. Since returning from injury on May 20, Jimenez has averaged a 96.9 mph exit velocity on 21 batted balls. While he is likely owned in every keeper league already, he should be picked up in all redrafts as well. He’s due for a breakout in short order.
Fantasy owners are likely bored of Nomar Mazara at this point after four straight seasons of posting a wRC+ between 89 and 96. But the 24-year old lefty has made incremental progress, increasing his xwOBA from .322 in 2017 to .339 in 2018 and .348 this year. Do not be surprised if the former top prospect starts putting numbers up as the Texas weather warms.
Mets catcher Wilson Ramos had a very disappointing start to the season, only hitting two home runs prior to May 20. Fortunately, a 10-hit, three-home run week brought his batting line up to .263/.341/.385, a respectable level for a catcher. Although he was never a fly-ball centric hitter, his average launch angle has regressed to 1.1 degrees this year on the back of a 62.3% ground-ball rate. Since the pickings are slim at catcher, Ramos owners will need to be content with hoping their backstop can continue turning things around.
Renato Nunez had himself a week, clubbing five home runs to go along with a .554 xwOBA and six barrels. However, three of those homers came against left-handed pitching, a trend that is becoming increasingly common for Nunez, whose wRC+ is more than twice as high against lefties than righties in 2019. He is an interesting play for DFS and weekly fantasy streams, but his platoon split makes him strictly a situational play.
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Nicholas Gerli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nicholas, check out his archive and follow him @nickgerliPL.
