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Preseason storylines always have the potential to derail your draft plans, so it’s smart to keep track of which players are trending up and which ones are trending down. But while you might be busy watching games for late-round fliers or dynasty stashes, you also should be reading the tea leaves on top-75 players. A star player sliding down draft boards because of some negative headlines could be the steal of your draft, or worse, the steal of your rival’s draft. Alternatively, your sleeper’s ADP might rise too high to be worth the risk.

So what happened after the first week of the preseason? Let’s take a look. I’ve included all top-75 players in PPR whose ADPs changed by two or more over the past week. You can check out their current ADPs (and their expert consensus rankings) here.

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The Fallers

 
Le’Veon Bell (RB – NYJ)
Bell’s first-round ADP has been consistently higher than his expert consensus ranking (ECR), and his two-spot fall still does not reflect his ECR of 11. While drafters have begun to realize that Bell may not have it as good as he did in Pittsburgh, they’re still taking him too high. Adam Gase has a history of underusing his running backs (see: Lamar Miller), and Bell’s famous patient running style may not work behind a putrid offensive line. The Jets led the league in stuffed runs last season, and while they did sign Kelechi Osemele in the offseason, he’s just one member of a five-person squad. You’re best off to let Bell keep sliding.

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)
Cook fell down draft boards for no good reason this week. He’ll be working with offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski this season, whose three-game test run saw the Vikings, well, run. A lot. Cook and ex-Viking Latavius Murray logged 72 carries through that stretch, good for 356 yards and three scores. Some might chalk those numbers up to the Dolphins’ terrible run defense in Week 14, but there’s a reason that Mike Zimmer fired ex-offensive coordinator John DeFilippo during the season: he wanted to run the ball. Cook’s ECR sits at 16, four spots above his inexplicably-low ADP. My take? Buy him here while you still can.

Antonio Brown (WR – OAK)
Frostbitten feet. Helmets. Threats of retirement. Antonio Brown had one of the strangest weeks in football ever, but he only slid down two slots on people’s draft boards. Just like fantasy drafters, Raiders coach Jon Gruden stood by his troubled receiver during the episode. Fortunately, that seems like the right decision now that Brown has returned to practice. His ECR of 22 is still pretty cheap given his consistent high-end production, but the uncertainty surrounding Gruden’s offense has to cap his value. I’d keep drafting Brown right about where he’s going.

Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC)
Gordon’s holdout may drag into the regular season, so drafters won’t know how many games they’ll get out of the Chargers’ RB1, or if he’ll still be a Charger at all. What drafters can know? That Gordon has finished as a top-eight running back every year since 2016, even though he played in 16 games in only one of those seasons. He finished as the RB7 in 2016 with only 13 starts, and he finished as the RB8 last season with only 12. Although the experts are low on Gordon, whose ECR is currently 29, he’s well worth a third-round pick. If you can snag him as your RB2 and complement him with either Justin Jackson or Austin Ekeler, you might have just punched your ticket to this year’s fantasy playoffs.

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)
When a team’s WR1 goes down, their WR2 usually trends up. That’s not the case for Tyler Boyd and the Bengals, however, because of how mediocre their roster is without star receiver A.J. Green. Andy Dalton, of “Dalton Line” fame, is trending toward replacement-level play. Worse, opposing secondaries will only have to worry about covering Boyd, Tyler Eifert, and struggling speedster John Ross, allowing them to limit Boyd’s upside. Bengals fans should not hold out hope that first-year head coach Zac Taylor, a Sean McVay protege, can turn around their offense without Green. Likewise, fantasy drafters should keep letting Boyd slide as the timeframe for Green’s return drags into the regular season.

Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI)
If you paid attention in economics, you’d know that bubbles burst. The Tarik Cohen bubble is no exception. His six-spot slide should be the first on a road down to post-hype status now that he’ll be competing with David Montgomery, Mike Davis, and Cordarrelle Patterson for looks. Cohen may have earned 1169 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns last season on the way to an RB11 finish, but the Bears’ new additions will cost him both rushing attempts and targets. Beat reporters have already expressed their skepticism about Cohen’s chance to repeat his 2018 performance, and drafters are finally starting to listen. However, Cohen will still have a part to play on the Bears’ offense, and you should keep a close eye on how far down draft boards he ends up sliding. If his ADP dips below 70, snag him.

The Risers

 
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
The best thing Nick Chubb did for his draft stock this week? Nothing. The Browns’ front office just happened to trade away fellow running back Duke Johnson the same week that Antonio Brown scared drafters and Melvin Gordon failed to get his requested trade. The Johnson trade shouldn’t have boosted Chubb’s ADP that much because fantasy drafters should have known that the Browns see him as a bellcow back. Even with Kareem Hunt’s eventual Week 8 return, Chubb should still see the bulk of the workload. His ECR sits at 18, which is now also his ADP. Take him here while you can, but be wary about reaching on him much earlier.

David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
The third-round running back made his NFL debut last Thursday. He earned 16 yards and one touchdown on three attempts, and he added 3 receptions for 30 yards to round out his resume. Nagy is well-known for using his running backs all over the field, and he should get the most out of Montgomery’s rookie season. However, drafters should remember that it’s still the preseason. Montgomery’s ADP of 57 is currently outpacing his ECR of 59, so while there’s a lot to like from the rookie, you should be careful not to get caught reaching for an unproven player.

Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE)
I don’t have a whole lot to say about Baker Mayfield. He’s a great sophomore quarterback in a scary Browns’ offense, blah blah blah, I’ll believe it when I see it. What I do have to say, however, is about when you should take a quarterback. My take? Not this early. The later rounds are stacked with cheap quarterback options like Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 109) and Kirk Cousins (ADP 141), and you should wait for one of them instead of burning precious draft capital on a loaded position.

Tevin Coleman (RB – SF)
Coleman finished last season as the RB18, and he’ll look to build on that performance in his first season as a 49er. His four-spot rise this week is likely due to the news that fellow-49er Jerick McKinnon will probably start 2019 on IR, but there’s no guarantee that Coleman will be the year-long starter. He’ll also have to compete with Matt Breida for snaps. Fortunately, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has succeeded with multiple backs before. In 2016, Devonta Freeman finished as the RB6 in his offense while Coleman finished as the RB19, so there’s cause for optimism with Coleman this season. He may have an ECR of 74, but his ADP of 67 could be worth it given his past success with Shanahan. Keep an eye on Coleman going forward, though, if his stock rises too much more, you might end up getting disappointed.

Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
Since he’s presumed to be the Chargers’ RB1 if Melvin Gordon’s holdout continues into the regular season, it’s no wonder why Ekeler’s ADP shot up six points through the past week. But fantasy drafters should pump the brakes. Ekeler has carved out a change-of-pace role on the Chargers’ offense, and there’s not a whole lot of evidence that he’s good at much else. In the three games that he played without Gordon last season, Ekeler notched 45 carries but only 129 yards. That’s just 2.9 YPC. With a full offseason to prepare for a feature-back role, Ekeler might improve his efficiency. But the Chargers probably don’t see Ekeler as a feature back, and they also have Justin Jackson on their roster. In his only game without Ekeler or Gordon, Jackson turned 16 carries into 58 yards and a touchdown, which isn’t much, but it’s more than Ekeler could do. If you want to play the Melvin Gordon replacement lottery this season, you’d be better off waiting for Jackson. His ADP is a much more affordable 165.

Interesting Developments Outside the Top-75

 
Corey Davis (WR – TEN)
I don’t get this one. A nine-spot rise for a disappointing wideout in a disappointing offense? Weird. If people had watched the Titans’ preseason game, they would have seen Marcus Mariota target newly-acquired Adam Humphries six times on one drive. Sure, Corey Davis and Delanie Walker were out. But Mariota and Humphries are already building a rapport and that cannot be good for Davis. I would have avoided him before, but now he’s a hard pass at his ADP of 83.

Latavius Murray (RB – NO)
The Saints were able to produce an impressive tandem of fantasy-relevant running backs the last two seasons, and it seems like fantasy drafters are betting on them to do it again. But there’s no guarantee that Latavius Murray picks up right where Mark Ingram left off. Last season, the Saints added two Ingram-types to replace him during his suspension: Jonathan Williams and Mike Gillislee. Sean Payton didn’t force the ball to either of them, however, and Williams didn’t even crack the opening day roster. Unlike Williams and Gillislee, Murray has a proven NFL track record, so he’ll probably earn more touches than either of them did. But last year made it clear that Sean Payton won’t feel pressured to force players into roles that others have played on his offense, so don’t expect Ingram-level production when you draft Murray. While he’s probably still worth his ADP of 93, much more of an increase might make him too expensive.

Jaylen Samuels (RB – PIT)
Samuels looked good in the Steelers’ first preseason game, which should explain the seven-point rise in his ADP. The problem? Samuels was looking good while playing with the backups and on special teams. James Conner’s fade down the stretch last season has inflated hopes that the Steelers will employ a committee, but there’s little evidence that Samuels would be the beneficiary in that scenario. Pittsburgh also added Benny Snell Jr. in the fourth round of last year’s draft, so Samuels might have to compete for change-of-pace carries. Samuels is an overpriced handcuff with no guaranteed floor, so I’d take the similarly-ranked Kalen Ballage at Samuels’ ADP instead.

Donte Moncrief (WR – PIT)
I wanted to put Moncrief on this list just to say “I told you so.” Back in June, I said that he was my pick to win the Steelers’ WR2 duties. His ADP was 180 then. Now it’s 126 and counting. There are so many vacated targets to go around in Pittsburgh without Antonio Brown and Justin Hunter that neither Moncrief nor James Washington would need all of them to be top-30 fantasy receivers. Though Moncrief has recently struggled through injuries and poor quarterback play, he flashed enough talent with the Colts for him to be worth taking a risk on at his still-cheap ADP. Buy him while you still can.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.