DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 14 (2019)
A couple of do-it-all backs priced outside the top-10 options at the position kick this week’s piece off as one-off suggestions. They’re joined by a four-man game-stack featuring a quarterback/wide receiver/wide receiver stack from one side and an air yards monster from the opposition.
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF): $5,700 vs. Ravens
The Bills are getting six points against the red-hot visiting Ravens, according to BettingPros consensus. The spread isn’t particularly concerning for Singletary, though, as he’s an active part of the passing game in addition to his stellar rushing skills. To that end, Singletary’s played 65% or more of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in seven of nine games, and he’s caught three or more passes in five of those games. The matchup isn’t ideal with the Ravens having surrendered the fewest receptions (45) to running backs this year, per Pro-Football-Reference, but Singletary should snag a few passes, and he’s game-script proof.
I expect this game to be a close one throughout, though, and Singletary should have an opportunity to show off his rushing ability in a favorable matchup. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Ravens 25th in rush defense defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). Circling back to Singletary’s rushing ability, he has some interesting nuggets in his statistical profile.
The shifty rookie running back ranks sixth among qualified runners with 8.9 attempts per broken tackle, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Among backs who’ve carried the ball between 20 and 99 times, Singletary ranks 13th in DVOA and tied for fourth in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR). Additionally, Singletary’s line is a plus, too. FO ranks the Bills sixth in adjusted line yards, and that shows up with Singletary ranking third among qualified runners with 3.2 yards before contact per attempt. Coincidentally, that marks behind Raheem Mostert‘s 3.5 yards before contact per attempt, and Mostert just smoked the Ravens. I like Singletary’s odds of making it three-straight games in which he bests 100 yards from scrimmage.
Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC): $6,400 at Jaguars
Gordon’s advanced metrics are unimpressive, but he’s a heavy volume workhorse in a dreamy matchup. He’s carried the ball 20 or more times in three of the last four games, and he’s touched the ball at least 17 times in all four games during that four-game stretch. He’s reached triple-digit yards from scrimmage three of his last four with his low mark sitting at a rock-solid 90 yards from scrimmage. He’s clearly shaken off his post-holdout rust, and he’s settled into a groove.
The matchup is nearly as good as it gets for him this week. FO ranks the Jaguars 31st in rush defense DVOA, They’ve been gashed for 5.29 yards per carry by running backs, per Pro-Football-Reference. Unsurprisingly knowing that yards per carry mark, they’ve been torched by long runs. Their average explosive run rate allowed of 13% is tied for the fourth-highest mark this season, according to Sharp Football Stats. The Chargers are 3-point favorites, according to the BettingPros consensus, so Gordon should be force-fed the ball in this tantalizing matchup. Gamers aren’t going to sleep on Gordon this week, but he’s good chalk to eat.
The Texans are home this week, and that means no concerns about weather. It’s also a plus for Watson. He’s no slouch on the road where he has a 98.7 Quarterback Rating, but he’s been a monster at home with a 109.1 Quarterback Rating. He’s thrown 39 touchdown passes against only eight interceptions in 18 home games in his career, averaged 252.2 passing yards per game, rushed for eight touchdowns, and averaged 30.2 rushing yards per game. Watson’s a matchup-proof player with a gargantuan ceiling that plays perfectly in GPP lineups. I don’t need to add anything to his case, but in order to further boost his ceiling, I’m advocating pairing him with both Hopkins and Fuller.
Nuk has the highest target share (31.7%) this year, according to Sports Info Solutions. That number alone supports his inclusion in a stack, but he also ranks eighth in intended targeted air yards (1,250). As an added bonus, he’s priced outside the top-five receivers. Sign me up for that.
As much as I like Nuk, I actually like Fuller more this week. He’s missed a couple games this year, and that takes a bite out of his overall numbers on the year. Fuller’s a key cog in Houston’s offense as a field stretcher, and his skill-set matches up perfectly with Watson. Among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 40 times, Fuller’s average depth of target of 14.6 yards deep is tied for the 10th-highest mark. Among qualified quarterbacks, Watson has the sixth-highest intended air yards per attempt at 9.0 IAY/PA. Fuller’s displayed his gaudy ceiling in two blowup games this year. In Week 5, he erupted for a 14-217-3 line. In Week 12, he had a 7-140-0 line.
The Texans have a robust implied total of 25.5 points this week, and that’s enough to support two wideouts with Watson. Additionally, Nuk has fared well in Fuller’s blowup games. In Week 5, Nuk tallied a 7-88-0. In Week 12, he ripped off a 6-94-2 line.
On the opposite side of Houston’s trio is Sutton. The second-year wideout has taken a massive step forward this year. There’s not a ton of value in digging into specifics with his full-season totals beyond noting he’s been very good, however, as he’s only played one game with current starting quarterback, rookie Drew Lock.
Lock not only didn’t slow Sutton’s role, the sophomore wideout thrived with Lock. Sutton totaled a 4-74-2 line on five targets, and, while it won’t show up in the box score, he was also targeted on a deep ball that resulted in a defensive pass interference before Denver nailed a game-winning field goal. Last week, Sutton had the fourth-highest percentage of team air yards at 55.26%, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
As if Sutton’s own exploits weren’t reason enough to plug him into GPP lineups, his matchup is the icing on the cake. FO ranks the Texans 25th in pass defense DVOA. Furthermore, receivers have totaled the 12th-most DraftKings points per game against the Texans, and they’ve generated 13.65 yards per reception. Sutton’s gonna eat.