Fantasy Football Weekly Recap: Week 10
Each Sunday, I’m here to give you some instant stat-based insight into NFL offenses. I try to focus on the numbers, but I’ll also break down some of the significant injuries of the day as well. Without any further ado, I present the key storylines from Week 10.
Story #1: Ronald Jones ran for 192 yards and a score.
If you were matched up against Jones this week, I’m sorry. More than half of his fantasy points came on a single, incredible play.
RONALD JONES 98-YARD TD RUN 🤯
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 15, 2020
Despite the speculation that Leonard Fournette would out-play Jones this week, the third-year back dominated this backfield. He had 24 touches to Fournette’s 10. If you read our bold predictions column, Joshua Lefkowitz called it, so I would make sure to give his stuff a read next week.
The other story here is how bad Carolina’s defense is against running backs. They were giving up the fifth-most PPR points per game to the position entering Week 10, and they’re liable to gain a spot or two following Jones’ performance. They’re a fantastic team to target with opposing running backs, and they’ll play Detroit (Week 11) and Minnesota (Week 12) before their Week 13 bye. Look for D’Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook to have big games as a result.
Story #2: Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 258 yards and
two one touchdown.
In Chubb’s first game back from injury, he absolutely lit up Houston’s mediocre defensive front. He turned his 19 carries into 126 yards and a score, and he could’ve had another one if he hadn’t chosen to ice the game instead.
Nick Chubb just broke all of his fantasy managers’ hearts 🤣
— PFF (@PFF) November 15, 2020
Hunt touched the ball 22 times — three more times than Chubb — and earned 132 all-purpose yards. While he isn’t the favored back close to the goal line, he’s still a red-zone receiving weapon, as he leads all active Browns players in targets inside the 20-yard line (7) and inside the 10-yard line (5).
Both Chubb and Hunt will be viable RB1s moving forward. Chubb has more value in standard-scoring leagues, while Hunt is the better option in PPR formats.
Story #3-6: Injuries.
Football is a violent game, and unfortunately, that means we’ll lose players to injury each week. A few fantasy-relevant players went down in Week 10: Teddy Bridgewater, Mike Davis, Davante Adams, and Danny Amendola.
#3: Bridgewater left late in the fourth quarter against the Buccaneers. He suffered a knee injury on a low hit from Jason Pierre-Paul, and he was checked out on the sidelines before heading for the locker room. Bridgewater had thrown for just 136 passing yards before his departure, but his two passing touchdowns and one rushing score buoyed his fantasy performance. He had also tossed a pick.
With Bridgewater down, the Panthers turned to XFL star P.J. Walker. The backup went two-for-four for 12 yards before the end of the game, and he’s now three-for-eight in his NFL career. Those aren’t inspiring numbers, but it’s a small sample size, and it’s far too early to know whether Bridgewater will have to miss any time. He is currently undergoing an MRI, but the injury doesn’t seem that serious.
It’s also worth noting that he injured his right knee, not his left knee, which is the one that exploded when he was still a Minnesota Viking.
#4 Davis also left Carolina’s game against the Buccaneers, although his injury came a bit earlier, as he left in the third quarter. Unlike Bridgewater, Davis returned to the game because his wrist/finger injury wasn’t severe enough to keep him out.
It’ll be worth monitoring Davis’ status in practice this week. The Panthers may opt to reduce his workload next week if he can only log limited practice sessions, as a hand injury would directly affect his ability to catch and hold onto the ball.
#5: Adams briefly left the Packers’ Week 10 matchup with an ankle injury. He was sent to the blue medical tent before returning, and he caught a touchdown once he was back on the field.
Adams could be limited in practice this week, but there’s no indication that his injury was anything serious. You should be able to count on him in Week 11.
#6: Amendola exited with a hip injury. He was ruled questionable to return, but he did not come back, and he ended the day with three catches for 10 yards.
Amendola led the Lions in targets last week, and his injury paved the way for Marvin Jones to see a large share of his offense. Jones ended the day with eight catches for 96 yards and a score, and he’ll be a reliable WR3/FLEX option if both Amendola and Golladay are forced to miss time. If one of them returns for next week, he’d still be a decent start, although he won’t have as much floor.
Story #7: D’Andre Swift took over the Detroit backfield.
After weeks of frustrating committee play, the Lions announced that Swift would start Detroit’s Week 10 matchup against the Washington Football Team. The talented rookie saw a commanding share of the workload in Detroit’s narrow victory, and his fantasy stock is trending upward as a result.
D’Andre Swift dominated the RB touches, & produced vs WAS. 🔥
▫️76.2% of RB Rush Attempts (16)
▫️83.3% of RB Targets (5)
▫️149 total yards
This should be his backfield going forward.
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) November 15, 2020
Even though Adrian Peterson can always vulture a touchdown, and while Kerryon Johnson may snag a catch or two on occasion, you should feel comfortable starting Swift each week. This kind of volume is more than enough for him to be a viable RB2, and he’ll have a chance to flash his upside against Carolina’s abysmal rushing defense next week.
Story #8: Alshon Jeffery finally returned from injury — but he didn’t catch his only target.
Jeffery played in his first game of the year! After weeks of speculation surrounding when he would come back, whether he’d get traded, and what his role would be upon his return, Jeffery didn’t catch a pass. He didn’t even run that many routes.
Routes run in Alshon Jeffery's first game (per @PFF):
Jalen Reagor: 38
Travis Fulgham: 36
Greg Ward: 25
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) November 15, 2020
I would give Jeffery another week to get back up to speed, but if he can’t bounce back next week against the Browns, then it’s probably safe to return him to waivers. Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham have played well enough to be Philadelphia’s starting perimeter receivers moving forward, so Jeffery will have to start producing if he wants to see the field.
Story #9: Wayne Gallman ran for two scores.
The Giants beat the division-leading Eagles, and a three-win team will continue to lead the NFC East for another week. Gallman played a big role in the win, as he scored a pair of rushing touchdowns from close to the goal line. He went up and over for the first one:
— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2020
And straight through the defense for the second:
That's ✌️ for 2️⃣2️⃣
— New York Giants (@Giants) November 15, 2020
With Devonta Freeman on injured reserve, Gallman is in for lead-back duties in this offense. He totaled 19 touches in Week 10, considerably more than Alfred Morris (8) and Dion Lewis (2). If he keeps seeing this kind of work, especially in the red zone, he’ll be a reliable low-end RB2/FLEX option moving forward. That said, his lack of passing-down usage limits his appeal in PPR formats.
Story #10: Antonio Gibson also ran for two scores — but don’t sleep on J.D. McKissic.
Washington gave their running backs a total of 35 touches this week. Gibson got 17 (48.5%) of them, and he turned them into 65 yards and two rushing scores. Although he scored from close to the goal line, the play calls still showcased his athleticism.
Alex Smith has led the comeback from down 24-3.
Antonio Gibson's second TD ties it with 6:09 left!
— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2020
Gibson is the clear lead back in this offense, especially due to his red-zone workload, but J.D. McKissic still posted fantasy-relevant numbers behind him. He got 15 touches (42.8%), and he totaled 49 yards and a score. Since seven of those touches were receptions, he scored even more points in PPR formats.
It’s hard to undersell just how heavily involved McKissic is in this passing game — he is one of Alex Smith’s favorite weapons, and he gets more targets than just about any other running back.
Most targets by a RB in a game this season
1.J.D. McKissic Today – 15
2.Alvin Kamara Week 3 – 14
3.J.D. McKissic Last Week – 13
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) November 15, 2020
If you didn’t get McKissic on waivers last week, I would do so immediately if he’s still there, especially if you’re in a PPR or half-PPR league.
Story #11: DeAndre Hopkins caught a game-winning touchdown in triple-coverage.
Wow. There’s not much else to say, really. Hopkins ended the day with seven catches on 12 targets for 127 yards and a score after this play.
The angle you didn't know you needed of @DeAndreHopkins' catch 👀💫
— ESPN (@espn) November 16, 2020
While that angle makes it pretty clear how well-covered Hopkins was, he literally disappears from Seth Walder’s dots replay because of the coverage.
Hail Mary dots! pic.twitter.com/zn1TWbqM5x
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) November 16, 2020
Absolutely wild. Hopkins is a high-end WR1 due to his high-volume role in this offense, and you can start him with confidence each week. And with Bill O’Brien now out of the league, it’s pretty clear who won the trade, Houston.
Stories #12-5: Injuries II.
With most of Sunday’s games kicking off after the 1:00 slate had ended, I have more injuries to recap than usual. Fantasy managers may have lost Drew Brees, Tre’Quan Smith, or JaMycal Hasty. Also, the injury to Nick Boyle, while not himself a fantasy-relevant player, will have severe consequences for his Baltimore teammates.
#12: Brees left Sunday’s game due to a rib contusion, and he’s expected to miss time. He threw for 76 yards and a score before his departure.
Behind Brees, the Saints have Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill to take snaps under center, and Winston has operated as the backup. He completed six of his 10 passing attempts for 63 yards, took two sacks, and ran four times for a loss of two yards. The Saints have an easy matchup with the atrocious Falcons secondary next week, so Winston should be a viable streamer in Week 11.
#13: Smith also got hurt in the victory. He went down on a nasty helmet-to-helmet hit, and he was ruled out with a concussion. Smith hadn’t caught a pass up to that point, and he was concussed on his lone target.
Without Smith, most of the targets went to Alvin Kamara (8) and Michael Thomas (7). They would probably both have been featured without Smith anyway, but his injury will free up even more of the offensive workload for them. They’re both high-end starters at their position next week.
It’s also worth noting that Emmanuel Sanders was only targeted once even after Smith’s departure, and his fantasy stock has taken quite a hit with Thomas’ return. I wouldn’t cut Sanders yet, but if he can’t post fantasy-relevant numbers with Smith sidelined, there’s no reason to roster him.
#14: Hasty broke his collarbone against the Saints, and that should end his season. Hasty had logged five touches for nine yards before his injury, as Jerick McKinnon led the way with 19 touches for 46 yards in the loss.
The 49ers just can’t catch a break this year. With Hasty down, the Niners should lean on a two-back committee of Raheem Mostert and McKinnon after their Week 11 bye. Mostert should be a high-end RB2, while McKinnon looks like a boom-or-bust RB3/FLEX play.
#15: Boyle suffered a gruesome knee injury and will miss the rest of the season. While Boyle has only been targeted 17 teams all year, he was a vital part of Baltimore’s run-blocking scheme, especially since the Ravens already lost left tackle Ronnie Stanley for the year.
Once deep at tight end, the Ravens are now down to just Mark Andrews and a pair of practice-squad bodies (Xavier Grimble and Sean Culkin). None of those guys can block as well as Boyle, so the members of Baltimore’s backfield (and Lamar Jackson) will lose some fantasy value as a result.
Story #16: Salvon Ahmed and Jakeem Grant led the Dolphins in rushing and receiving, respectively.
I wasn’t sure who the Dolphins would feature on offense this week, as they were without three of their best weapons: Preston Williams, Myles Gaskin, and Matt Breida. But when they chose to make Jordan Howard a healthy scratch, they signaled their confidence in their backups. Since they won 29-21, it looks like that confidence was well-deserved.
On the ground, Ahmed led the way with 21 carries for 85 yards and a score. He also caught his lone target for five yards. No other Miami rusher touched the ball more than three times — Malcolm Perry (3), Patrick Laird (2), and DeAndre Washington (2) all took a backseat to Ahmed. With Gaskin out for at least another week, Ahmed should be a viable RB2/FLEX option against the Broncos. He might even have value once Gaskin gets back.
Salvon Ahmed saw 84% of Miami's running back rushes today. Myles Gaskin's season high in running back rush share is 81.8%.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 16, 2020
Grant finished as Miami’s lead receiver this week, and although DeVante Parker ended up getting more targets than him, Grant out-caught him (4-to-2), out-gained him (43-to-31), and out-scored him (1-to-0). Grant will have a healthy role in this offense with Williams on IR and Isaiah Ford on the Patriots, and he’s not a bad start at WR4/FLEX in deeper leagues.
Story #17: Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker combined for four rushing touchdowns.
The Las Vegas Raiders completely throttled the Denver Broncos on the ground this week. Their backfield totaled 203 rushing yards and four scores on 41 attempts, good for a team average of 4.95 yards per carry. You don’t need to pass when you can run like this:
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) November 16, 2020
Booker’s strong fantasy finish shouldn’t put him on the map as a waiver-wire add. He’s a high-value handcuff at best, as he will only touch the ball to spell Jacobs or when the Raiders have a huge lead.
Story #18: Cam Akers led the Rams in rushing attempts and rushing yards — just not rushing touchdowns.
The Rams backfield continues to be frustrating for fantasy managers. Through the first half, no one player had the majority of the snaps, and none of them had more than five carries.
#Rams 1st Half RB Usage
– Malcolm Brown, 43% snaps, 3 carries, 1 target (TD)
– Darrell Henderson, 32% snaps, 4 carries, 0 targets (TD)
– Cam Akers, 24% snaps, 5 carries, 0 targets pic.twitter.com/HTGT5zriID
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 15, 2020
By the game’s end, Malcolm Brown finished as the best fantasy option because of his two touchdowns. He also had the largest role in the receiving game, as he caught two passes for 18 yards, more than Henderson (one catch for five yards) and Akers (no catches). That said, Akers had the largest share of the carries, as he got 10 of the backfield’s 23 total attempts (43.4%).
So how should you evaluate this backfield moving forward? Let’s review what Sean McVay said about this backfield in the offseason.
Sean McVay immediately pointed to the 2019 49ers when asked how the Rams’ RB approach will play out.
He seems to like how Shanahan managed his committee of backs https://t.co/0bRdfaevlJ
— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) July 21, 2020
That’s not very inspiring for fantasy purposes. You can keep rolling out Henderson as a low-end RB2, but he’s a bit more touchdown-dependent now that McVay is featuring Akers in a larger role. Akers is worth holding onto as a handcuff, but he’ll need Henderson or Brown to get hurt to become a reliable starter.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.