You love fantasy rankings, but you really love tiers. We get it: Tiers give rankings texture and can be a big help when you’re actually drafting. Here are my quarterback tiers, rankings and player notes for 2022.
Tier 1
People used to see video snippets of Josh Allen sailing passes 10 feet over the heads of receivers at the University of Wyoming or at Bills training camp and laugh about what a scatter-armed bum he was. Now, Allen has the top tier all to himself. Football is pretty wild sometimes, huh? Allen has been the leading fantasy scorer at the position in each of the last two years.
Tier 2
This is a meaty tier indeed. You’re feeling pretty good if you’re starting any of these guys on a weekly basis. Most of the QBs from this tier deliver rushing value, which helps make them matchup-proof, or at least matchup-resistant.
Patrick Mahomes might still be the best pure passer in the game and could eventually go down as one of the best of all time, but 2021 was a bumpy ride. His interceptions spiked, and he averaged a career-low (by far) 7.4 yards per attempt. But Mahomes is simply too good not to bounce back, and he still gets to run the Andy Reid playbook.
Justin Herbert has finished QB9 and QB2 in fantasy scoring in his first two years in the league. He has a terrific arm and adds value with his legs, too. Some people like him more than Mahomes. My one concern is that yards per attempt is a pretty good measure of a quarterback’s passing ability, and Herbert’s YPA numbers the last two years (7.3 and 7.5) are rather ordinary.
Speaking of YPA, Joe Burrow’s 8.9 YPA in 2021 was so good that perhaps we should consider it a symptom of greatness. Burrow entered the 2021 season less than a year removed from a torn ACL, so we might even see him run more this season. The Bengals have the league’s best 1-2 punch at WR and have upgraded their offensive line.
Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray are electric playmakers coming off disappointing seasons. Both are capable of a QB1 season but must show more improvement as passers to get there.
Jalen Hurts is an interesting case. He ran for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns last season, but his potential as a passer is a matter of debate. The Eagles have supplied him with ample pass-catching weaponry, including new WR A.J. Brown. The bottom line is that Hurts’ running ability earns him a place in this lofty tier.
Tier 3
Dak Prescott’s yearly fantasy finishes since 2016, minus his injury-shortened 2020 season: QB6, QB11, QB10, QB2, QB9. Not too shabby.
If you’re looking for this year’s version of Jalen Hurts, the most obvious candidate is Trey Lance, a fantastic runner whose passing ability is a wild card. If he’s competent as a passer, he could provide Tier 2 production at a discount.
Russell Wilson has been a good fantasy quarterback for a long time, and now he finds himself in an appealing new ecosystem. But Wilson doesn’t run much anymore, and I’m worried that his diminished escapability might sap some of his playmaking ability.
What more can we say about Tom Brady? Perhaps the greatest compliment we can pay him is that he’s going to be 45 when the new season begins and no one seems worried about the possibility of Brady going over the age cliff.
Aaron Rodgers is still one of the best pure passers in the league, but he doesn’t run much anymore, his WR corps is weak, and the Packers’ improved defense could lead to a lot of run-heavy game scripts.
The addition of WR Davante Adams to the Raiders’ arsenal boosts Derek Carr’s fantasy appeal. He’s always been a pretty good yardage guy, but he hasn’t hit 30 TD passes in a season since 2015. Adams should help with that.
Matthew Stafford finished QB5 in total fantasy points last year but only QB11 in fantasy points per game. He tied a career high in TD passes and posted his best yardage total since 2012, so some regression may be inevitable.
Kirk Cousins is a better fantasy quarterback than real-life quarterback. (Fantasy football doesn’t punish him for throwing short of the sticks on 3rd-and-8.) With Sean McVay disciple Kevin O’Connell now coaching the Vikings, we could see Cousins’ passing volume tick upward.
Tier 4
With the exception of our mild-mannered friend in Minnesota, this is a volatile tier.
Tua Tagovailoa now has a terrific WR combo with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but does he have the arm to take advantage of all that speed?
Trevor Lawrence should probably get a mulligan on his rookie year after having to perform in Urban Meyer’s three-ring circus last year. It was a grim debut for Lawrence, but the talent is still there.
The Bears aren’t giving young QB Justin Fields much to work with. He has exciting potential as a dual run-pass threat, but the deck is stacked against him this year.
It’s hard to know what to do with Deshaun Watson. He’s been a top-five QB whenever he’s played a full season, but there’s a good chance he’ll get hit with a suspension, and a year-long suspension isn’t out of the question. This ranking is obviously a hedge.
Tier 5
Can new Giants head coach Brian Daboll salvage Daniel Jones’ career after helping Josh Allen become a lethal run-pass threat? There’s plausible upside here, but there was also optimism that a coaching change would reinvigorate Sam Darnold‘s career, and we know how that turned out.
Matt Ryan was in a hopeless situation in Atlanta last year. Now he’ll get protection from a good offensive line and a strong running game. Philip Rivers had a QB15 season for the Colts in 2015, and that’s a reasonable best-case scenario for Ryan in 2022.
In 2019, Jameis Winston led the NFL in pass attempts. Before his season-ending knee injury last year, he was averaging just 25.2 pass attempts per start. With Michael Thomas returning and with a suspension looming for Alvin Kamara, it’s hard to tell what the New Orleans offense is going to look like.
Mac Jones was a competent game manager as a rookie. Can he become a playmaker? Maybe. He seems destined to be a better real-life quarterback than fantasy quarterback.
Jared Goff is just keeping the seat warm for whichever quarterback the Lions draft in 2023, but with all the weaponry around him, he could turn in a top-20 fantasy finish.
What if the arrival of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall and a full season of good health for Elijah Moore and Corey Davis are force multipliers for Zach Wilson? He struggled as a rookie, but a big step forward isn’t out of the question.
The Titans traded away A.J. Brown and drafted Malik Willis. Neither move bodes well for Ryan Tannehill, whose QB13 finish last year was partly propelled by seven TD runs.
Davis Mills was a pleasant surprise for the Texans last year, but his 2022 ceiling may be limited in an offense that still needs a lot of work.
The Indianapolis Colts chased off Carson Wentz after only one year and foisted him upon the Washington Commanders. Wentz still has a starting gig at least, and … well, that’s all I’ve got.
Tier 6
And finally, we arrive at the limbo tier. These guys all find themselves in ambiguous QB situations.
Baker Mayfield is now the odds-on favorite to be the Panthers’ Week 1 starter, but he hasn’t given us enough reason to believe he can be a fantasy difference-maker.
The Steelers’ first-round pick Kenny Pickett is destined to start at some point this season, but Pittsburgh might slow-play it with their rookie, even though he’s older and more polished than most rookie QBs. Pickett was a one-year wonder in college, so keep expectations modest.
Marcus Mariota gets another chance to be a starter, but it’s for a bad Falcons outfit, and he has a rookie looking over his shoulder.
Mitchell Trubisky is the favorite to start for the Steelers in Week 1. He might have some fleeting appeal as a running quarterback who has a good set of weapons.
Third-round rookie Desmond Ridder has some serious speed and could provide fantasy value with his legs if he gets a chance to be Atlanta’s starter, but the passing numbers won’t be pretty.
Once considered a likely top-five draft pick, Malik Willis tumbled all the way into the third round, where he landed with the Titans. He’s raw, but the rushing potential is appealing. The thing is, the Titans won’t be in any rush to cast aside incumbent Ryan Tannehill.
Drew Lock is favored to be Seattle’s Week 1 starter, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll break through after three bleak seasons in Denver. Geno Smith wasn’t terrible last season when he had to fill in for the injured Russell Wilson, and it wouldn’t take much to beat out Lock for the starting role.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s 2022 Quarterback Rankings & Tiers
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