Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 8 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

Wow. That’s all you can say about Joe Burrow’s Week 7 performance. The Atlanta Falcons had no answer for the former LSU star. Burrow had 481 passing yards in the game, including 345 by halftime. More importantly, the former No. 1 overall draft pick has put together back-to-back top-10 performances, totaling 459 air yards over the past two weeks. Furthermore, he has a 5.8 aDOT over the past two weeks compared to 3.5 over the first five games. The Cincinnati passing attack is starting to click, and that is bad news for opposing defenses and fantasy players.

Sticking in the AFC North division, Pickett continues to show why the Steelers made the right choice moving on from Mitchell Trubisky. The two quarterbacks have almost the exact number of pass attempts this season, 128 for Trubisky and 127 for Pickett. Yet, the rookie has completed 68.5% of his pass attempts compared to 60.9% for the veteran. However, Trubisky surprisingly has a higher aDOT (4.6) than Pickett (3.8). The difference in their aDOT is surprising, but the rookie is still getting used to the NFL game. I would bet Pickett’s aDOT is higher than Trubisky’s by the end of the season.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Since Burrow had nearly 100 more air yards than any other quarterback in Week 7, it’s no surprise to see Chase and Boyd in the top 10 list. While Tee Higgins didn’t crack the top 10, he did finish inside the top 20 wide receivers at 16th overall with 55 air yards on seven targets (7.9 aDOT). The Cincinnati passing attack is arguably the most dangerous in the NFL, especially if all three wide receivers are playing well at the same time.

We expect Chase to be among the league leaders in air yards every week. However, seeing Boyd finish with 22 more air yards than any other receiver last week is shocking. The veteran averaged only 28.1 air yards per game this season before last week and averaged 27.4 air yards per game last season. It will be interesting to see if the Bengals keep using Boyd in the vertical game moving forward or if he returns to his typical role of the underneath slot receiver.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

For only the second time since Week 1, Mark Andrews didn’t lead all tight ends in air yards for the week. Unfortunately, the veteran tight end had only two targets in Week 7. He had zero air yards in the game after he failed to catch either target. However, Andrews missed time during practice last week with a knee injury. Hopefully, the superstar tight end rebounds on Thursday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There are a few new names on the top 10 list this week. Tremble totaling 29 air yards on one target is a bit funny despite how bad the Tampa Bay defense looked in Week 7. Hopefully, their poor play continues in Week 8 for Andrews. However, the name on the list I expect to see more often moving forward in Dulcich. The rookie was a draft favorite of mine, and he’s clearly earned the No. 1 tight end role in Denver. In his first two NFL games, the former UCLA star has 54 air yards on 12 targets (4.5 aDOT). His 54 air yards are the ninth-most among tight ends over the past two weeks.

The Top Five Underperformers

Last week I highlighted how awful the Chargers receivers were in the air yard department. Unfortunately for fantasy players with Justin Herbert on their roster, another Los Angeles receiver leads the top underperformers list again this week. Bandy is an intriguing waiver wire target in deeper leagues now that Mike Williams will miss time with a high ankle sprain. He had an 11.8 aDOT before last week, totaling 47 air yards over his first four targets this season. However, last week’s negative aDOT is a red flag. Hopefully, Joshua Palmer is ready to play after the Week 8 bye and fill Williams’ shoes until the star receiver can return.

Meanwhile, what in the world is going on in Indianapolis? Matt Ryan got benched for Sam Ehlinger on Monday. Yet I was told Ryan was a clear upgrade over Carson Wentz in the offseason. So what does the change at quarterback mean for the team’s wide receivers? We shall see. However, I wouldn’t count on Campbell’s production over the past two weeks to continue.

The former Ohio State star has 23 targets over the past two weeks but only 71 air yards to show for it (3.1 aDOT). Why? Because Ryan’s arm strength isn’t what it once was. Meanwhile, Ehlinger has never thrown an NFL pass during the regular season. However, he averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt during his four years at Texas, including 8.4 yards per pass attempt or more in each of his final three seasons. Now is the time to sell high on Campbell, as the Indianapolis offense could look dramatically different a week from now.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.