Week 6 is the first in the NFL season to include byes. So, a few teams are off this week, leaving an 11-game main slate. The following player suggestions and game analysis will help narrow the player pool to a usable number of options.
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Week 6 Matchups
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: SF -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
49ers Analysis: It has been an underwhelming beginning to the 2022 season for George Kittle. Still, gamers shouldn't fall into the trap of believing the narrative that he's functioning as a tackle. While it's funny, it's untrue. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kittle has played the most passing snaps (95) and run the third-most routes (79) for the 49ers since he made his season debut in Week 3.
Sadly, Kittle hasn't had a standout performance yet this year. Still, this could be his get-right matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Falcons have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game (67.9) to tight ends this year. So, Kittle is an intriguing tournament option.
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons are best faded this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, their season high for passing yards was only 215 in Week 1, and they've been under 175 three times. Thus, the pie is too small to get excited about in a challenging matchup against San Francisco's top-shelf, albeit banged-up, defense.
Game: New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: Rhamondre Stevenson has played well this year. However, his fantasy value skyrocketed last week when Damien Harris left the game with a hamstring issue, likely to sideline him for a few games. The second-year back rumbled for 161 yards on 25 carries and reeled in both his targets for 14 yards.
Stevenson isn't just a volume-driven back. He's efficient and explosive. Per PFF, Stevenson is ninth in missed tackles forced (17 MTF) running and second in Yards After Contact per Attempt (4.23 YCO/A) among running backs with at least 30 rush attempts this season. Further, the blocking has been outstanding. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots are third in Adjusted Line Yards (5.07).
The matchup is sweet, too. Per Football Outsiders, the Browns are 32nd in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). So, Stevenson is a darling in the optimizer, earning the RB1 value score (RB1V) at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Browns Analysis: Nick Chubb is a model-breaking back. He's insanely efficient and a workhorse, resulting in NFL highs for rushing yards per game (118.6) and rushing touchdowns (seven). In addition, Chubb is first in missed tackles forced (42 MTF) and tied for third in Yards After Contact per Attempt (4.23 YCO/A).
Like Stevenson, he has benefited from stellar blocking and has a tasty matchup this week. The Browns are sixth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.90), and the Patriots are 28th in rush defense DVOA. As a result, Chubb is a high-upside choice in GPPs.
David Njoku has been blossoming this year. According to PFF, Njoku is third out of 41 tight ends targeted at least 10 times in 2022 in Yards per Route Run (2.02 Y/RR). He's also tied for fifth in receptions (24) and fifth in receiving yards (289) at the position. So, Njoku is a matchup-proof tight end.
Finally, Donovan Peoples-Jones is an adequate punt. In the past three weeks, DPJ has run the second-most routes (93) for the Browns and earned a target on a rock-solid 18.3% of his routes. The matchup isn't too shabby, either. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots have allowed 55.4 receiving yards per game to No. 2 wideouts, a pinch higher than the league average of 50.5 receiving yards per game ceded to No. 2 receivers.
Game: New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Jets Analysis: Breece Hall is legit, and he's forced himself into a larger share of Gang Green's backfield duties. The talented rookie played 66% of New York's snaps in Week 4 and 69% in Week 5. In addition, he's run 37 routes versus only 22 for Michael Carter since Week 4.
So, obviously, the playing time has been encouraging. Yet, Hall's production has been more exciting. He's had 275 scrimmage yards, four receptions and two touchdowns in the last two weeks. DFS gamers should be hyped about his outlook in a plus matchup this week since the Packers are 30th in rush defense DVOA. As a result, Hall has the RB3V at FD and RB2V at DK.
Packers Analysis: Romeo Doubs hasn't been perfect in his rookie campaign, but he's earned the trust of Aaron Rodgers. Since Week 3, he's second on the Packers in routes (105), third in receiving yards (149), tied for first in targets (21) and touchdown receptions (two) and first in receptions (16). Therefore, he's underpriced at both DFS outlets, netting him the WR6V at DK and WR7V at FD.
Surprisingly, Randall Cobb has shown he still has juice. Over the last three weeks, he's been targeted on a blistering 26.2% of his routes, hauling in 12 receptions on 17 targets for 198 scoreless yards. The veteran slot is also coming off his best game, running 29 routes and posting 99 receiving yards on seven receptions and 11 targets. Finally, Cobb is more attractive at DK's full-point point-per-reception (PPR) platform, where he also has a cheaper salary than Doubs.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 42.0 Points
Jaguars Analysis: The Jaguars have had back-to-back ugly showings. However, Christian Kirk can rebound against a team he victimized earlier this year. In Week 2, Kirk had six receptions for 78 yards and two touchdowns on six targets. Fortunately, the Colts have been giving to most No. 1 wideouts this year, allowing the 10th-most receiving yards per game (76.7). Thus, Kirk's blow-up game wasn't an outlier, making this a great spot to go back to the well with him.
Travis Etienne has outplayed James Robinson lately. In the last three weeks, Etienne has rushed 31 times for 148 yards, 2.77 YCO/A and forced seven MTF, and J-Rob has rushed 35 times for 156 yards, 2.23 YCO/A and just four MTF. Additionally, Etienne has run 55 routes and had eight targets, six receptions, 73 yards and 1.33 Y/RR versus 46 routes, five targets, five receptions, 28 receiving yards and a grotesque 0.61 Y/RR for Robinson.
The matchup might also lend itself to Etienne playing the lion's share of Jacksonville's offensive snaps. The Colts are stout against the run, ranking second in rush defense DVOA. However, they've yielded the sixth-most receiving yards per game (52.1) to running backs this season. So, Doug Pederson would be wise to use his superior pass-catching back and avoid wasting too many plays rushing against Indy's stingy run defense.
Jacksonville's defense is also a nifty pick against a washed-up-looking Matt Ryan. Matty Ice is tied for the most interceptions (seven) and sacks taken (21) this year. As a result, the Jaguars have the DST3V at DK.
Colts Analysis: Jonathan Taylor's playing status isn't clear. However, he's an intriguing option if he returns. First, the Colts are favored. Second, Taylor gashed the Jaguars for 6.00 yards per carry in Week 2. Unfortunately, he toted the rock only nine times for 54 yards because the Colts were beaten thoroughly. But, of course, Indy's offense was without their two best receivers. Now that they're healthier, the game script should be conducive to Taylor handling the rock early and often. As a result, he's a talent-driven and volume-driven tournament suggestion.
Alec Pierce is an ascending talent and will get his first crack at the Jaguars after missing Week 2 with a concussion. The athletic rookie wideout has had new highs for targets, receptions and receiving yards in three straight games, eclipsing 60 receiving yards in each of those contests and spiking to nine targets, eight receptions and 81 receiving yards last week. Further, since Week 3, Pierce has had an eye-popping 3.08 Y/RR.
Finally, he has a better matchup than Indy's No. 1 wideout, Michael Pittman. The Jags have allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (36.3) to No. 1 receivers. On the flip side, they've yielded the 10th-most receiving yards per game (60.7) to No. 2 receivers. Thus, Pierce could shoulder more of the load than Pittman this week.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIN -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: Skylar Thompson will start for the Dolphins this week. He's a rookie selected in the seventh round of this year's NFL Draft. Thompson got his feet wet last week but looked like a player to use defenses against. He completed under 60% of his passes, took two sacks, had one interception, one fumble lost and passed for only 166 yards on 33 attempts. As a result, Minnesota's defense is an attractive DFS selection at DK.
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins are a wholesale fade led by the seventh-round pick discussed in Minnesota's analysis.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
Spread: CIN -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals haven't resembled the high-flying 2021 offense so far this year. Yet, this might be an opportunity for them to turn back the clock. The Saints haven't been sharp against deep passes against NFL-caliber quarterbacks (i.e., excluding Baker Mayfield's deep passes against them). Non-Mayfield quarterbacks have completed 13 of 28 passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 414 yards, four touchdowns and one interception.
The Saints were especially mistake-prone last week, making the most coverage mistakes in Week 5, per PFF. In addition, Cincinnati's pass-heavy tendencies are good for Joe Burrow's, Ja'Marr Chase's and Hayden Hurst's outlooks this week. In neutral game scripts this season, Burrow has attempted 126 passes, and non-quarterbacks have rushed only 61 times.
Thus, Burrow is a sneaky tournament pick. Chase is his top healthy wideout since Tee Higgins is nursing an ankle injury, making him an obvious stacking partner. Further, the matchup is rock-solid for Chase. The Saints have coughed up the 11th-most receiving yards per game (74.3) to No. 1 wideouts. And, obviously, Chase has previously demonstrated the ceiling to lead a slate in scoring.
Hurst is a nifty punt, owning the TE1V at DK and the TE6V at FD. The former first-round pick has run the fifth-most routes (168) among tight ends. He's parlayed his routes into 4.0 receptions and 31.4 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns.
Finally, Cincinnati's defense is a tasty value at FD, earning the DST2V at that platform. They're eighth in total defense DVOA, tied for eighth in turnovers (eight) and have eight sacks. The matchup is also a plus, whether it's against Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston. According to StatHead, Dalton has had the 15th-highest sack rate (6.80%), and Winston has had the 11th-highest sack rate (7.38%) out of 35 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 200 passes since 2021. Additionally, Dalton has had the second-highest interception rate (3.5%), and Winston has had the 10th-highest rate (2.9%).
Saints Analysis: New Orleans will have their work cut out for them against Cinci's talented defense. So, there are more attractive options than the Saints' most DFS-friendly players.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
Spread: BAL -6.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson is projected as the QB2 at both DFS outlets. However, he might be slightly overlooked this week compared to a few forthcoming signal-callers. So, he has an appealing case for tournaments.
Moreover, there's a matchup-driven case for using Jackson. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Giants have blitzed at the highest rate (43.3%). Unfortunately for the G-Men, their blitz-happy tendency could blow up in their face this week. Jackson has earned PFF's fourth-highest passing grade out of 36 quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks against the blitz this year.
If Jackson has a big day, Mark Andrews will have a hand in it. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Andrews is third in Target Share (32.9%). Additionally, out of 25 tight ends targeted at least 15 times this year, Andrews is third in receptions (32), second in touchdown receptions (two) and first in receiving yards (349) and Yards per Route Run (2.17 Y/RR).
Devin Duvernay's also a stellar value choice, especially if Rashod Bateman is out again this week. Duvernay has had at least four receptions three times, 50 receiving yards three times and scored touchdowns in two games, including one in which he fell under 50 receiving yards, helping salvage his fantasy output.
Giants Analysis: Saquon Barkley has been electrifying this year. The explosive back has rushed for the second-most yards per game (106.6), rumbled for three touchdowns and done damage through the air, averaging 3.6 receptions and 28.6 receiving yards per game.
The volume alone is ground for using Barkley in DFS lineups. Still, the matchup is excellent as well. The Ravens are 26th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game (53.4) to running backs. As a result, Barkley is projected as the RB1 at DK and FD, with the RB3V at the former and the RB2V at the latter.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: TB -8.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers have played three games with their two best receivers healthy, and they've attempted 131 passes versus only 57 rushes by non-quarterbacks. So, the pass-happy offense and mouthwatering matchup are ideal for Tom Brady's ceiling.
The Steelers are 18th in pass defense DVOA and were just clowned by the Bills last week. Their timing for catching Brady couldn't be worse, either. Brady's passed for 736 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the past two weeks.
Mike Evans is the best stacking option with Brady or a superb one-off choice. Evans has the fourth largest matchup advantage among wideouts on this week's main slate on the Week 6 PFF wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart. He's also been a monster in the red zone, tying for the most touchdowns (three) inside the 20-yard line among wideouts, despite being targeted only four times in that area of the field.
Evans also boasts a deep average depth of target (12.4-yard aDOT, per SIS) that should suit him well this week. In the last two weeks, the Steelers have allowed 10 completions for 356 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions on 22 pass attempts that have traveled at least 15 Air Yards. Therefore, Evans is built to further Pittsburgh's woes defending deep passes.
Steelers Analysis: The Bucs are third in total defense DVOA, tied for fifth in turnovers forced (nine) and third in sacks (19). So, Tampa Bay's defense isn't to be trifled with, and rookie Kenny Pickett will likely endure more growing pains this week. As a result, gamers are advised to fade Pittsburgh's players in DFS this week.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -10.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Panthers Analysis: Congratulations to the Panthers. They're such a roaring tire fire that they have the dubious distinction of being the first team to can their head coach. Yet, somehow, there's more. Mayfield has been an unmitigated disaster, but things might worsen while he's sidelined with an ankle injury. Former XFL star P.J. Walker is poised to start for the Panthers, and he's thrown three interceptions and taken one sack while tossing only one touchdown in two starts in his NFL career. Gamers should avoid the Panthers at all costs in DFS.
Rams Analysis: Cooper Kupp is tied for fourth in touchdown receptions (four), second in receiving yards per game (105.4) and first in receptions per game (9.8). Last year's leading receiver is an unstoppable force. As a result, Kupp is atop PFF's Week 6 wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart. He's also the projected highest scorer at any position on DK, and the third-highest projected scorer at FD. Kupp also has the WR1V at both DFS providers. So, gamers should jam him into their cash-game lineups, and he has the requisite ceiling for tournament consideration.
The Rams' defense is also an enticing choice. They're the beneficiaries of facing Carolina's comically-bad offense and project as the DST2 at both sites with the DST1V at FD.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: ARI -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Cardinals Analysis: First, James Conner will likely miss this week's game. As a result, Eno Benjamin is a shoo-in cash-game selection at DK, where he has the RB7V. First, the Cardinals have done a rock-solid job of run blocking, ranking 11th in Adjusted Line Yards (4.58). Second, the matchup is good. The Seahawks are 24th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards (52.3) to running backs this year.
The game environment is sweet, too. The game's total is high, and the spread is small, favoring the Cardinals. Benjamin has also demonstrated some competence in a change-of-pace role, eclipsing 50 yards and catching at least three passes in three games this season. Finally, Benjamin should have a lead-back role as the last man standing in their backfield. So, the value is there. However, Benjamin isn't an elite talent. As a result, there's an appeal to fading him as a chalk selection in tournaments.
Arizona's passing attack has left much to be desired, and Kliff Kingsbury continues to showcase his incompetence. He runs a stale offense that's entirely devoid of creativity. Fortunately, the Seahawks are the perfect elixir for getting the passing attack on track.
The Seahawks are 31st in pass defense DVOA. Seattle has also been torched for the seventh-most passing yards per game (259.8) and tied for the seventh-most passing touchdowns (nine) coughed up this year. So, Kyler Murray can feast through the air. And, of course, he's a threat on the ground, rushing for more than 25 yards four times this season and finding paydirt on the ground in two contests. Thus, he's a sweet pivot in tournaments from an upcoming quarterback who's likely to be the chalky choice.
The following table shows the stats from PFF for Arizona's three best pass-catchers since Rondale Moore made his season debut in Week 4.
Among the players not included on the table, the next-highest target total was five. So, the targets have been highly consolidated between Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz and Moore. Though A.J. Green was healthy for only the Week 5 game and had five targets he inefficiently turned into three receptions for 20 scoreless yards. In addition, Moore's slot rate rose, and his aDOT dipped to 2.3 yards. Fortunately, the second-year wideout played well in that role, catching seven passes for 68 yards. So, the optimizer digs him at DK, giving him the WR2V.
Hollywood is the most exciting option of the bunch. The field-stretching wideout has had at least six catches in four consecutive games, bested 75 receiving yards in three straight and scored a touchdown in three games this year. So, Brown has been a consistently excellent player in his first year reunited with his former college quarterback. The optimizer likes him at DK, giving him the WR5V at that platform.
Finally, Ertz isn't the sexiest player. He's not a dynamic athlete like the higher-profile options at tight end. Yet, his steady diet of targets should suit him well in a mouthwatering matchup. The Seahawks have yielded the second-most receiving yards per game (79.6) to tight ends this year. Seattle is also tied for the third-most touchdowns (four) allowed to tight ends this season, per Pro-Football-Reference. Therefore, Ertz shows well in the optimizer, projecting as the TE3 at both DFS providers.
Seahawks Analysis: Gamers should erase the memory of Tyler Lockett being a boom-or-bust wideout from their brain. Lockett has been a steady source of fantasy points this year, catching at least five passes in the last four weeks, besting 75 receiving yards in each and topping 100 receiving yards twice. He also found paydirt for the first time last week, scoring two touchdowns.
In addition, the matchup is good. According to PFF, Lockett has the sixth-most significant matchup advantage on PFF's Week 6 wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart. Yes, he's directly behind D.K. Metcalf, but Lockett has been more productive than Metcalf this year and remains cheaper on DK. However, FD has justifiably moved Lockett over Metcalf, awarding the former a salary of $100 more than the latter.
Ken Walker is another exciting option from the Seahawks as the probable feature back. Seattle's second-round pick is a handful as a runner. According to PFF, Walker led FBS running backs with 88 MTF last year. Impressively, he's seamlessly transitioned to evading tacklers in the pros, generating 10 MTF on only 23 carries this year.
Walker's rushing ability is the primary draw. Sadly, he's an unproven pass-catching option. So, there's some risk of DeeJay Dallas serving as the team's pass-catching back. However, Since Week 4, Walker has run 21 routes compared to just 11 for Dallas. In addition, the Seahawks have gotten the ball into Walker's hands in the passing game, targeting him on 23.3% of his routes this year. So, Walker might not be entirely game-script dependent. Finally, Walker is an attractive bargain piece of exposure to a projected back-and-forth shootout, making him a value on DK and FD.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: BUF -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 54.0 Points
Bills Analysis: Buffalo's table is quite full. But, of course, they have the highest implied total on the slate. So, they are justifiably an excellent source of DFS options. Thankfully, the optimizer agrees, projecting Josh Allen as the QB1 at both DFS sites, with the QB2V at FD and QB1V at DK.
The projection algorithm also loves Stefon Diggs, projecting him as the WR2 at both sites and awarding him the WR3V at DK and WR2V at FD. The Bills' defense is also intriguing at DK, sporting the DST2V there.
Now, let's look at a macro view of Buffalo's robust passing attack. Buffalo has attempted 148 passes, and non-Allen players have rushed just 48 times in neutral game scripts this season. Even if you include Allen's 25 rushes in neutral game scripts, Buffalo is decidedly a pass-first offense.
The matchup is quite nice for the Bills' passing game. The Chiefs are 19th in pass defense DVOA, have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game (255.6), tied for the most passing touchdowns (12) allowed and recorded only one interception. Therefore, Allen is in an eruption spot this week and the QB1. I'll have more exposure to Allen than any other quarterback on this week's slate, and he's the best pick at the position in all game types.
Diggs is also an exciting option, despite the Chiefs holding him to only seven scoreless yards on three catches and six targets in last year's AFC Divisional Round playoff contest. Kansas City has been a tire fire against No. 1 wideouts this year, coughing up the second-most receiving yards per game (98.5) to them this season.
Davis broke last week's slate and was a monster in the playoffs against the Chiefs last season. So, he'll understandably be chalky. However, this week, he's an awesome pick as a player tailor-made to torch the Chiefs. In the last four weeks, the Chiefs have allowed 11 completions for 321 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions on 23 pass attempts that traveled at least 15 Air Yards. Meanwhile, per SIS, Davis has a 16.5-yard aDOT. So, it's another blow-up spot for Davis.
Isaiah McKenzie has cleared the NFL's concussion protocol after missing last week's game. Will he reclaim the slot role after rookie Khalil Shakir played well in Week 5? Maybe. However, the Bills were using McKenzie and Jamison Crowder (who's on Injured Reserve) in the slot through the first four games. Moreover, Shakir's PFF receiving grade last week was nearly identical to McKenzie's season-high PFF receiving grade in 2022. So, could this be a Wally Pipp situation? Might the Bills decide using McKenzie in a gadget role is an attractive move for their offense? These unanswered questions create a nifty situation for speculating on either player in a projected shootout.
Chiefs Analysis: Travis Kelce scored four touchdowns last week, and he's been doing elite things this year. According to PFF, he's third in targets (42), second in receiving yards (347), tied for first in receptions (33) and first in receiving touchdowns (seven) among tight ends. He's also been efficient, ranking fourth out of 25 tight ends targeted at least 15 times this year in Yards per Route Run (1.89 Y/RR). As a result, he's projected as the TE1 this week at both DFS outlets. Still, at his salary and in a challenging matchup, Kelce is merely a bring-back pick instead of a standalone selection.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling got off to a slow start, but he's rounded into better form lately. In the last three weeks, he's third on the Chiefs in targets (19), tied for second in receptions (13), second in routes (110), first in receiving yards (201) and Yards per Route Run (1.83 Y/RR). MVS has also had a 12.2-yard aDOT in those three games, right in the sweet spot for doing damage but not being a completely low-percentage target.
Finally, Skyy Moore is a speculative choice. The rookie wideout has moved past Justin Watson on the depth chart but remains behind MVS, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. However, Smith-Schuster has looked washed-up and failed to add juice to the offense, and Hardman has been quiet before popping his head up for 80 scrimmage yards on four receptions and one rush attempt last week.
Moore has had an underwhelming 46 scoreless yards in the past three weeks on four receptions. However, there has been an encouraging nugget in his underlying stats. Namely, he earned a target on 23.1% of his routes since Week 3. Moore's most likely outcome this week is remaining in an ancillary role. However, if his role grows, getting ahead of it in a game that should light up the scoreboard could help shoot a team to the top of a tournament.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
