The Primer: Division Round Round Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The Divisional Round is here as the DFS season marches on. This week presents a beautiful four-game slate with high-powered offenses and high total games. As I’ve mentioned previously, if a player isn’t mentioned in this write-up, they aren’t part of my player pool for the week. There are many ways to build lineups this week as we all look for ways to get different.

Good luck in your DFS contests, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards.

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NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Divisional Round

Saturday Games

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -9.5, O/U 52.5
• Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Trevor Lawrence: Despite tossing four picks last week, Lawrence was successful with his comeback efforts while tossing for 288 yards and four scores. Lawrence bounced back from three down weeks, which still doesn’t take away from the tear he has been on since Week 9. Over his last ten games, Lawrence has ranked second in PFF passing grade, fourth in adjusted completion rate, and second to only Josh Allen in big-time throws (minimum 150 dropbacks). Lawrence is a contrarian play on this slate, but if he becomes popular, I’m likely to fade him. Since Week 14, the Chiefs have been third in success rate per dropback, fifth in EPA per drop back, and second in yards per attempt allowed.

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is a fantasy point-scoring machine. Over his last 13 games played, he has ten outings with at least 23 DK points and six 30 DK point games. Mahomes is top-five in yards per attempt, fantasy points per dropback, passing touchdowns, and true passer rating. Jacksonville has been able to get after the quarterback this year, ranking fourth in pressure rate despite only sitting at 15th in blitz rate. Mahomes has been Superman against swarming rushers ranking fourth in pressured PFF passing grade, tenth in pressured yards per attempt, and seventh in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks). Since Week 14, Jacksonville has ranked 14th in success rate per dropback, fourth in EPA per drop back, and 12th in explosive pass rate allowed. Despite the tough matchup, I’ll bet on Mahomes against any defense on the face of this planet.

Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon is in play this week. One of the ways you attack this Jacksonville pass defense is with running backs in the passing game. Even last week, with his snaps dropping to 37%, he still retained a 41.2% route rate per dropback clip. Since Week 14, McKinnon has been an integral cog in the passing with a 17.1% target share, 48.2% route rate per drop back, and 2.74 yards per route run. He averaged 53 receiving yards with seven receiving touchdowns and a 32% target per route run mark. McKinnon can be played in a mini-stack with a Jacksonville player, stacked with Mahomes, or as a one-off if you’re looking to get exposure to this high total game around another game stack. Jacksonville has allowed the most receptions and fourth-highest receiving yards per game to running backs this season.

Christian Kirk: The attack point for passing attacks facing the Chiefs has been via the slot. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. They have recently changed their coverage assignments, but this remains one of Lawrence’s best avenues for moving the ball this week. Kirk had a 23.2% target share (24th) and 28.4% air yard share in the regular season. He was fifth in red zone targets and 12th in deep targets among wide receivers. Lawrence fed Kirk last week with 14 targets which he turned into eight grabs, 78 receiving yards, and a score in a tough assignment. Kirk torched this secondary in Week 10 with 105 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and he could easily do so again in Week 20. Kirk will run about 75% of his routes against Trent McDuffie, who has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 103.2 passer rating since transitioning to slot duties in Week 16.

Zay Jones: Jones has a 22.0% target share and 23.6% air yard share while ranking 12th among wide receivers in red zone targets. While Jones has been volatile, he’s flashed weekly target hog upside with six games this season with at least ten targets. Jones ranks 57th in PFF receiving grade and 48th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). Jones may see shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed (since Week 12: 65% catch rate, 55.9 passer rating), who followed Davante Adams and D.K. Metcalf on 62-95% of their routes, limiting them to 77 combined scoreless receiving yards. If Jones isn’t shadowed, he’ll run about 66% of his routes against Sneed and Jaylen Watson (since Week 12: 62.5% catch rate, 97.4 passer rating). Jones is a viable double-stack option with Lawrence.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Since his Week 13 return to full-time status, Smith-Schuster has had a 16.7% target share, a 20% end zone target share, and 12.4% air yard share. Smith-Schuster’s target share has been volatile with less than five targets in four of his last six games. Over that span, he also has two games with at least ten targets, so while the floor is low the weekly ceiling for work is still extremely high. Since Week 14, the Jaguars third in fantasy points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers, but they are only 18th in this metric against slot receivers. Since Week 16, Smith-Schuster has run about half of his routes from the slot. He has four games this season where he’s run at least 56% of his routes from the slot and this week could make for five. Andy Reid should load up Smith-Schuster with targets against Tre Herndon (69.2% catch rate, 119.5 passer rating). Smith-Schuster’s YAC ability should be on display this week against a defense that’s allowed the fourth-most YAC and sixth-most missed tackles. Smith-Schuster ranks eighth in YAC per reception (minimum 50 targets).

Kadarius Toney: Since Week 16, Toney has had an 8.7% target share, a 6.6% air yard share, and a 27.1% route run rate. These metrics paint a bleak picture, but Toney has been incredibly efficient with his target volume. Over this three-game stretch to close the season, he’s had an eye-popping 3.34 yards per route run and 28% target per route run rate. If his usage perks up, he could explode this week. On top of his crazy per-route numbers, 50% of Toney’s target volume since Week 16 has occurred in the red zone, so the high-value usage is there for him to possess a massive ceiling this week. Over the last three weeks, Toney has seen 37.5% of his target volume from the slot and 50% of his targets on screens. The name of the game against the Jacksonville defense is to produce YAC. Toney is among the best in the league, ranking ninth in YAC per reception (minimum 15 targets). If we bump up the threshold to 50 targets if Toney qualified, he would rank third, immediately ahead of Jaylen Waddle.

Evan Engram: Evan Engram flipped a switch in Week 13. Since then, he has been an elite fantasy option with a 22.7% target share, 71.9 receiving yards per game, 15.6% air yard share, and 2.27 yards per route run. Engram has at least 90 receiving yards in three of his last seven games. Since Week 14, Kansas City has been 26th in fantasy points per game, 23rd in receiving yards per game, and tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Engram is one of the reasons that double tight-end lineups are viable this week.

Travis Kelce: Kelce ranked third in target share, third in air yard share, and eighth in deep targets. He leads the NFL in red zone targets. Kelce hasn’t managed to crest 50 receiving yards in his last two games, but this week will change the trend. Kelce had 81 receiving yards and a touchdown the last time he faced this defense. Jacksonville is one of the worst defenses in the NFL against tight ends. They rank 32nd in DVOA, 27th in catch rate, and 29th in receiving yards allowed to the position. Kelce’s YAC ability should destroy this defense. Kelce ranks 11th in YAC per reception and first in YAC (minimum 25 targets).

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -8, O/U 48
• Giants vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Daniel Jones: Jones is a perfect GPP target this week. He has four games with at least 26 fantasy points, so the tournament-winning ceiling is definitely here. Jones has been threading the needle all year as a uber-efficient game manager in the passing department. While Jones is 24th in yards per attempt and 31st in air yards per attempt, he’s also fifth in accuracy rating, first in true completion rate, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Jones also has three 300-yard passing days on the 2022 resume. He put up 19.4 fantasy points against this defense earlier this year. The Eagles’ pass defense has been a murderer’s row all year, but they have looked mortal over the last few weeks. Since Week 14, they have been 22nd in success rate per dropback, 15th in EPA per drop back, and 24 in yards per attempt allowed.

Jalen Hurts: The most recent memory of Hurts against this defense could cloud the judgment of DFS gamers. In Week 18 against New York, Hurts completed 57.1% of his passes, ran for only 13 yards, managed only 6.5 yards per attempt, and finished with 9.4 fantasy points. An audible wet fart, no matter how you frame it. Don’t let that one week let you forget that he posted 30.4 fantasy points while completing 67.7% of his passes with 77 yards on the ground against the Giants in Week 14. Hurts has balled out this season, ranking sixth in PFF passing grade, second in fantasy points per dropback, and fourth in adjusted yards per attempt. He closed out the regular season ranking fourth in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns, and first in Red zone carries per game. Since Week 14, the Giants have been 12th in success rate per dropback, 16th in EPA per drop back, and 14th in explosive pass rate allowed. New York has had flashes as a strong defense this season, and the return of Adoree’ Jackson helps, but Hurts has been an elite player all year surrounded by studs.

Saquon Barkley: Since Week 14, Barkley has been running with similar vigor that he displayed earlier in the season with 5.0 yards per carry. In that span, he’s ranked 12th in breakaway run rate. Over his last four games, he’s averaged 18.2 touches and 103.7 total yards. Barkley is an every down bell cow facing a defense that since Week 14 has been 14th in fantasy points per game, 12th in rushing success rate, 19th in rushing yards per game, and 17th in explosive run rate allowed. Barkley is one of the best bets for snaps and volume on this slate.

Miles Sanders: Sanders has been an underrated source of upside at the running position this season. In Weeks 11-17, he averaged 16.3 touches and 80.2 total yards. Sanders ravaged this run defense in Week 14 gashing them for 155 total yards with 18 touches. Sanders has three games this season with 25 or more fantasy points and one of them was against this run defense. Sanders is dripping with upside this week against a run defense that ranks 28th in rushing success rate, 32nd in EPA per rush, and 30th in explosive run rate allowed since Week 14.

Richie James: Since Week 14, James has had a team-leading 23.6% target share while averaging 60 receiving yards per game. Across his last five games, he has had an 80% route per dropback rate, 1.88 yards per route run, and a 24% target per route run rate. James has eight red zone targets over his last eight games, with a look inside the 20 in seven of those weeks. With Avonte Maddox ruled out, James will run about 84% of his routes against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (94.1% catch rate, 140.2 passer rating) this week from the slot. James flopped last week as a popular play. I’m going right back to the well for the flop lag. James is my favorite stacking option with Jones.

Isaiah Hodgins: Since Hodgins burst onto the scene in Week 13, he’s been producing solid numbers. Over his last five games, he has a 23% target share, a 36.6% air yard share, and 1.73 yards per route run. Hodgins has been Jones’ favorite target near paydirt with a 66.7% (team-leading) end zone target share since Week 13. Hodgins ranks 16th in open rate among qualifying wide receivers immediately behind Ja’Marr Chase and Christian Watson. Hodgins will run about 82% of his routes against James Bradberry (since Week 14: 53.3% catch rate, 107.1 passer rating) and Darius Slay (63.6% catch rate, 127.7 passer rating). Since Week 14, Slay and Bradberry have operated in zone on 62% of his their coverage snaps. Since Week 13, Hodgins ranks tenth in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run against zone (minimum seven zone targets) with 62.5% of his target volume coming against the coverage.

A.J. Brown: Brown ranks eighth in target share (29.0%), ninth in target per route run rate (29.4%), and sixth in air yard share (39.4%). He’s also seventh in deep targets, and 12th in red zone looks among wide receivers. Brown posted 70 receiving yards and a score and 95 (scoreless) receiving yards in his last two meetings with this secondary. Last week with Adoree’ Jackson back, the Giants deployed their starting corners in zone on 66-70% of their snaps. Brown has seen 48.2% of his target volume against zone this season, ranking 21st in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run against zone (minimum 15 zone coverage targets). Jackson could shadow Brown this week. Jackson followed Justin Jefferson on 80% of his routes last week, holding Jefferson to six receptions (six targets) and 37 scoreless receiving yards. Brown will run about 74% of his routes against Jackson if he’s not shadowed (57.6% catch rate, 87.5 passer rating) and Fabian Moreau (62.3% catch rate, 106.0 passer rating).

DeVonta Smith: Smith’s numbers against zone coverage have dipped slightly over the last few weeks, but he still has seen 55.3% of his target volume against the coverage running 16th in PFF receiving grade and 25th in yards per route run (minimum 15 zone targets). Overall, Smith has a 27.0% target share (14th) and 29.9% air yard share. He’s 19th in deep targets among wide receivers, with five red zone targets over his last four games. Smith will run about 74% of his routes against Jackson and Moreau. Double stacking Hurts with Brown, and Smith is viable. If Brown is shadowed this week, Smith could smash as the primary stacking option with Hurts.

Daniel Bellinger: Since Bellinger’s return in Week 13, he has had a 10.6% target share, 77.2% route per dropback rate, and 0.72 yards per route run. Bellinger hasn’t had much high-value usage this year, with zero deep targets and only three red zone targets over his last six games. Bellinger is a large field GPP or MME play. He’s an easy way to get different with your Jones stacks. Since Week 14, the Eagles have been 28th in catch rate, 25th in receiving yards per game, and 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Dallas Goedert: Goedert has a 19.4% target share (seventh-best) and 14.6% air yard share (11th-best). Goedert finally saw a pair of red zone targets in Week 18, which were his first since his return. Goedert has been an efficiency monster this season when healthy, ranking third in yards per route run and seventh in fantasy points per route run. The Giants have been gashed by tight ends all season, ranking 30th in catch rate, 23rd in receiving yards per game, and 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed.

Sunday Games

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -5.5, O/U 49
• Bengals vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Joe Burrow: Burrow is playing at a ridiculously high level. He ranks first in PFF passing grade, seventh in big-time throw rate, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback (minimum 150 dropbacks). Buffalo is a talented pass defense, ranking fourth in fantasy points per game, fifth in yards per attempt, and seventh in EPA per dropback. Burrow could come in lowly rostered this week, with many shying away from this matchup. I’ll still push my bankroll to the middle with Burrow, who has displayed a sky-high ceiling. He has five games with at least 28 DK points. Burrow has the talent and weapons to put up a beautiful stat line.

Josh Allen: Despite some hills and valleys with his passing in recent weeks, Allen remains ranked third in PFF passing grade, first in big-time throw rate, and eighth in yards per attempt (minimum 150 dropbacks). The Bengals are a tough draw, but Allen is like many of the elite quarterbacks on this slate because he is truly matchup-proof. Since Week 14, Cincinnati has ranked eighth in success rate per dropback, tenth in EPA per drop back, and 12th in yards per attempt allowed. Allen’s rushing is his high floor and ceiling combo trump card. He ranks fourth in rushing yards per game and third in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks.

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is a target hog. He has at least ten targets in eight of his last nine games, with at least 97 receiving yards in half. Chase has a 29.4% target share, a 40.6% end zone target share, and a 38.1% air yard share. Chase ranked third in red zone targets and 20th in yards per route run in the regular season. He will run about 75% of his routes against Tre’Davious White (51.3% catch rate, 69.1 passer rating), Dane Jackson (59.7% catch rate, 84.0 passer rating), and Kaiir Elam (71.1% catch rate, 83.1 passer rating). Since Week 14, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Chase could be shadowed by Tre’Davious White this week. White has shadowed twice this season following Jaylen Waddle and Garrett Wilson on 60-80% of their routes, holding each below 52 receiving yards in coverage.

Tee Higgins: If White blankets Chase in this game, the target volume could flow more to Higgins this week. Higgins has had an 18.6% target share, a 27.9% air yard share, and a 22.3% target per route run rate. He ranks 30th in deep targets, 36th in red zone targets, 25th in yards per route run, and 18th in open rate. Higgins has a massive ceiling in any week. He has four games this season with at least seven grabs and 114 receiving yards. If White shadows, Higgins will matchup primarily with Jackson and Elam. If not, he’ll run about 80% of his routes on the perimeter against the corner trio. This week, stacking Burrow with Higgins and Boyd is a contrarian angle to take.

Tyler Boyd: Boyd has the matchup for Burrow to pick on in this game. Since Week 14, the Bills have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. Boyd should see a bump this week from the 13.9% target share and 17.8% air yard share he saw in the regular season. Boyd ranked 36th among 87 qualifying wide receivers in open rate. Boyd will run about 84% of his routes against Taron Johnson (71.7% catch rate, 107.8 passer rating). Boyd is my favorite value receiver on this slate.

Stefon Diggs: Diggs did Diggs-type things last week with a 24.3% target share and 114 receiving yards. Overall, Diggs has a 27.6% target share, a 37.2% end zone target share, and a 33.3% air yard share. Diggs ranks seventh in open rate, sixth in end zone target rate, and 15th in weighted opportunity. Diggs should spearhead the Bills’ passing attack again this week, running about 66% of his routes against Cam Taylor-Britt (58.5% catch rate, 105.1 passer rating) and Eli Apple (58.4% catch rate, 103.7 passer rating).

Gabriel Davis: Davis equaled Diggs last week with a 24.3% target share as he finished with 113 receiving yards and a touchdown. Davis is second on the team in target share (18.6%) and end zone target share. He also has a 30.3% air yard share and 1.63 yards per route run. Davis ranked 12th in deep targets in the regular season and has nine red zone targets over his last six games. He will run about 89% of his routes against Taylor-Britt and Apple. Davis is my favorite double stack partner with Allen this week.

Dawson Knox: Knox has been on a touchdown heater. Since Week 14, he’s scored in each of his last five full games played with a 17.1% target share. Over this stretch, he’s logged a 75.9% route run rate. Knox has had six red zone targets since Week 15. Knox is another viable double-stacking partner with Allen this week. I’m also not opposed to triple-stacking Allen and betting on 350 passing yards with four passing touchdowns. Allen has three games this season with at least 304 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. Since Week 14, the Bengals have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -4.5, O/U 46.5
• Cowboys vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Dak Prescott: Prescott silenced some doubters last week logging the highest PFF passing grade, second-highest yards per attempt, and highest adjusted completion rate among quarterbacks. Talent and weekly upside has never been the question. Prescott ranks 11th in fantasy points per dropback, 13th in accuracy, and 13th in yards per attempt. Prescott gets a 49ers’ pass defense that has looked middle-of-the-road over the last few games. Since Week 14, San Francisco has been 17th in success rate per dropback, 11th in EPA per dropback, and 20th in yards per attempt allowed. Prescott is a strong GPP gamble because some gamers will be hesitant to roster him as they tell themselves “well, it’s only one good game.”

Brock Purdy: Purdy flashed a ceiling last week that we had previously not seen. He posted 34.9 fantasy points with his first 300 yards passing day, a season-high 11.1 yards per attempt, and the second game in a row with three passing scores. Purdy ranks 13th in PFF passing grade, second in yards per attempt, and 13th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 150 dropbacks). Purdy faces a Dallas secondary that shut down a floundering Buccaneers passing attack last week. Let’s not pretend that the Cowboys have been playing good defense though over the last few weeks. Since Week 14 they have been 23rd in success rate per dropback, 24th in EPA per dropback, and 27th in passing yards per game, and 21st in explosive pass rate allowed.

Weeks 18-19

Christian McCaffrey: Last week McCaffrey played 74% of the snaps with 17 touches and 146 total yards. He remains the clear leader of this backfield despite almost evenly splitting the red zone work since Week 18 with Mitchell. McCaffrey ranks 16th in evaded tackles, 19th in breakaway run rate, and eighth in fantasy points per opportunity. Since Week 14, Dallas has been fifth in rushing success rate, third in EPA per rush, and 25th in yards per reception against running backs. McCaffrey should play 70% of the snaps while flirting with 20-25 touches. That type of volume and three down skillset is difficult to fade on any slate.

Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell is a large field or MME play. He has averaged 19% of the snaps, eight touches, and 41 total yards since Week 18. His saving grace has been heavy red zone usage and three scores over this span. Mitchell has run well this season with at least 2.89 yards after contact per attempt in five of his six games played.

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is a target-demanding alpha receiver. He ranks ninth in target share, seventh in target per route run rate, and 14th in air yard share. He is ninth in deep targets and 18th in red zone targets. Lamb ranks sixth in yards per route run and fifth in open rate. The 49ers remain a zone-heavy defense, with their outside corner duo operating in zone on 78% of their coverage snaps last week. Lamb ranks 19th in PFF receiving grade and ninth in yards per route run against zone (minimum 15 zone targets). Lamb will run about 62% of his routes against Jimmie Ward (81.7% catch rate, 93.9 passer rating). The 49ers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. Lamb is the priority stacking option with Prescott and is one-off viable.

T.Y. Hilton: Hilton is a viable stacking option with Prescott and large-field tournament play (or MME). Since Week 16, Hilton has had a 9.7% target share while ranking second on the team behind only Lamb in air yard share (20%). Over that span, he’s been second on the team behind only Lamb in deep targets (six vs. four) with a 17.6 aDOT. The 49ers have been susceptible to the deep ball all season, allowing the tenth-highest deep ball completion rate and eighth-most deep passing yards. Hilton saw his route per dropback rate rise from 38.1% in Week 18 to 51.4% last week. He may creep into the 60-70% mark this week.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel exploded with a 32.1% target share last week with nine targets and 133 receiving yards (one touchdown). He’s primed to build upon that stellar game this week. Last week Dallas operated in zone coverage on 65-71% of their snaps. Samuel has logged 71.1% of his target volume against zone while ranking tenth in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum 15 zone targets). Samuel will run about 60% of his routes against Trevon Diggs (68.9% catch rate, 99.3 passer rating) and Xavier Rhodes (58.3% catch rate, 73.3 passer rating).

Brandon Aiyuk: With Purdy starting, Aiyuk has seen a 23.8% target share, a 30% end zone target share, and a 40.6% air yard share. He’s been targeted on 24% of his routes with 2.62 yards per route run. Aiyuk has played out of his mind this season, ranking 18th in PFF receiving grade and fifth in open rate, immediately behind Tyreek Hill (minimum 50 targets). Aiyuk could exploit the Cowboys’ issues against deep passing this week. With Purdy, he leads the team with eight deep targets. Dallas has allowed the 12th-highest deep ball completion rate this season. Aiyuk also has four red zone targets over his last three games.

Dalton Schultz: Since Week 14, Schultz has had a 21.1% target share, a 21.4% end zone target share, an 83.1% route run rate, and 1.63 yards per route run. The 49ers’ zone-based defense will help Schultz. Schultz has seen 59.6% of his targets against zone, ranking 15th in yards per route run (minimum ten zone targets). Schultz ranks seventh in red zone targets. Since Week 14, the 49ers have been giving to tight ends ranking 27th in catch rate, 24th in receiving yards per game, and 22nd in fantasy points per game.

All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.