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Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, Early Pick (2023 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, Early Pick (2023 Fantasy Football)

The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books. With the NFL Draft comes dynasty rookie draft season! We have you covered with our dynasty rookie draft coverage, and of course, you can complete fast and FREE dynasty rookie mock drafts using our mock draft simulator. While you take that simulator for a spin to prepare for your dynasty rookie mock drafts, check out our latest dynasty rookie mock and analysis from our analysts.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit

Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

1.01 – Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

Bijan Robinson is a beautiful combination of speed and power. He can beat you in a variety of ways as a rusher. His pristine vision marries well with his efficient footwork and extensive tool bag of moves. Robinson can jump cut or break out a spin move leaving a defender in the dust, or he can use his powerful lower half to drop the hammer. Robinson breaks tackles like he’s playing against junior high defenders. He looks like he’s playing on a different level slicing through and mowing defenders down easily. Robinson is a scheme-versatile back. He has the strength to excel in a downhill gap scheme and the juice to plant and go on outside zone runs. If Robinson wasn’t so talented, his 2022 could have looked quite different. The Texas offensive line was a trainwreck in 2022. They dropped from 13th and 43rd in stuff rate and power success rate (per Football Outsiders) to 45th and 90th. Robinson had to face skinny running lanes, multiple defenders in his face at the second level and free rushers on many runs. Robinson is a dependable three-down weapon. He is a wheel route demon with speed to separate from linebackers and a pair of soft mitts. Robinson showed growth in the passing game in 2022, ranking 19th in PFF receiving grade and 21st in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF).

Dynasty Outlook:  Robinson is one of the best running back prospects since Saquon Barkley hit the NFL. Arthur Smith and the Falcons wasted no time during the draft affirming this fact by selecting him eighth overall. Robinson should be the engine that makes that offense go. He should have no issues racking up volume or finding open running lanes with the “Dirty Birds.” Atlanta was second in neutral rushing rate and first in red zone rushing rate last year. The Falcons were also tops in PFF’s run-blocking grade in 2022. Robinson should be the locked-in 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts, regardless of format.

2.01 – Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)

Zach Charbonnet is a dancing rhino covered in butter. Charbonnet is a tough runner with nimble feet for his size and a mean stiff arm. He can string together jump cuts to daylight more regularly than a person his size should be able to. Arm tackles don’t bring down Charbonnet. He slips through them with ease. Charbonnet has a strong leg drive and consistently finishes runs well. While his lateral agility will surprise, he’s still at his best when he gets downhill in a hurry. Charbonnet is a decisive runner who operated in a gap-heavier scheme over the last two seasons (53.5% of his runs came on gap designs). Charbonnet is a serviceable pass-catcher. He displays soft hands, but his athletic ceiling will limit how creatively a team will deploy him through the air at the next level. He can be a trusted check-down option for his next quarterback. His calling card will be his ability to handle volume and break off chunk plays. His home run-hitting ability will not. Charbonnet is a buildup speed back who utilizes his fancy footwork to cover up for an average burst.

Dynasty Outlook:  Seattle crushed my heart. You heard my audible sorrow if you listened to our live reaction podcast of Round 2. That pain was and remains real. Charbonnet got the draft capital we wanted from a dynasty perspective, but Seattle just dolled out similar capital for Kenneth Walker last year. Charbonnet is now locked into a timeshare for the foreseeable future with Walker. Unless Seattle plans to transition to a top five-10 neutral rushing rate team, this will cap the volume for Walker and Charbonnet yearly, assuming both stay healthy. I can’t drop Charbonnet below the ranking of RB3 in this class because of the combination of talent, draft capital invested in him and the fact that nearly every running back in this class was sent to a butthole-clenching landing spot. Charbonnet is a late first-round/early second-round rookie draft pick.

3.01 – Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

Chase Brown has good vision on zone runs and finding cut-back lanes. Brown does hesitate at the line when he should explode through the hole. He ran with more conviction as the 2022 season progressed. Brown is a runway back. He doesn’t display the ability to make the first tackler miss in the hole, but once he’s into the second level, he displays a good second gear and the ability to set up his blocks. Brown isn’t blessed with overwhelming lateral agility. He gets himself in trouble when he hesitates at the line or tries to bounce some runs outside. Brown doesn’t have the raw athleticism to get away with this. Brown displays soft hands in the passing game. He was mostly utilized as a check-down option or on the occasional rail route.

Dynasty Outlook:  Brown’s draft capital (fifth round) isn’t much to sniff at, but the landing spot is interesting. Brown should be considered the favorite to grab the RB2 spot on the Bengals’ depth chart behind Joe Mixon. The team also added UDFAs Calvin Tyler and Jacob Saylors to the running back room, which gives us a small inclination that they haven’t been wowed by the performance of Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans in previous seasons. While Brown’s game doesn’t blow me away, and he shows little upside in the passing game, he’s still worth sprinkling into your rookie draft exposures across your leagues. The Bengals have shown no issue giving one running back all the work in any games Mixon has missed over the last few seasons. Brown is a good mid-round dynasty rookie pick that could pop off with some RB2 weeks in-season should Mixon miss any time. If that scenario played out, he would also be a good player to trade away in-season for a small equity gain for your dynasty squad. While the Bengals didn’t invest substantial capital into the running back position in this NFL Draft cycle, I would be shocked if they didn’t address the position with a high pick in 2023.

4.01 – DeWayne McBride (RB – MIN)

DeWayne McBride is a tough runner. He has strong contact balance as he pinballs off defenders into the second level. His plus leg drive masks average burst at the line. McBride has enough lateral agility to sidestep to a different gap when the designed hole is filled with a defender. His vision is a plus as he presses the line well and improvises when it’s called for. He’s at his best when he gets downhill in a hurry as a one-cut-and-go back. McBride lacks the extra immediate juice to hit some creases as he looks a second behind. This also shows up when he’s asked to avoid a defender in the backfield. He can jump-cut an early surprise occasionally, but he’s getting dropped behind the line on many plays that he encounters a defender immediately. He’s an unknown in the passing game. McBride only garnered 10 targets in college. This could be related to offensive design or a reflection of stone hands, but with such a small sample to work with, it’s impossible to know which. McBride did perform as a plus pass protector in his final season in college, so we can assume that the lack of targets wasn’t related to him coming off the field on passing plays. Last year McBride was 15th in PFF pass-blocking grade (minimum 50 pass-blocking snaps, 109 RBs).

Dynasty Outlook:  McBride nearly fell to UDFA status before the Vikings drafted him in the seventh round. McBride’s rushing talent is undeniable, but his pass game usage is likely zero in the NFL. He should still battle last year’s fifth-round selection Ty Chandler for the RB2 spot on this depth chart behind Alexander Mattison, now that Dalvin Cook has been released. He’s a fourth-round dynasty rookie pick worth investing in. It could net you a starting running back if he can somehow beat out Mattison and Chandler in camp. That’s an upside play worth making.

5.01 – Brenton Strange (TE – JAX)

Immediately on film, Brenton Strange pops as a nasty blocker with a mean streak. He utilizes a strong lower half well with the leg drive to push defenders around. He anchors well and has solid hand technique engaging defenders. Despite having 34th percentile hand size, his mitts never lose a defensive player once he’s locked onto them. Strange is an athletic linear player. His athleticism shows up during blocking and when he’s moving in a straight line. His explosive metrics (broad and vertical jumps) are off the charts, but his 3-cone and 20-yard shuttle are 32nd percentile (per or lower. This struggle with short-area footwork shows up in his routes. He rounds off routes and doesn’t have an explosive transition once moving from receiver to rusher after the catch. Strange’s route running is still evolving. He was utilized on screens and chip plays heavily. If he doesn’t continue to hone his footwork and overall route running game, he will be a weapon against zone and poor tackling teams, but you will be pressed to see him win against man coverage. His lack of route nuance and footwork could severely limit his upside. With his plus run blocking already in tow, he could be typecast early as an inline 12 personnel type who is never a featured weapon in an NFL offense. Strange isn’t a high-end target earner. He never commanded more than a 9.7% target share in any collegiate season. He profiles as a tertiary option in an NFL passing attack who might have to live off his red zone usage to be fantasy relevant.

Dynasty Outlook:  Strange’s dynasty stock will be impacted by not only his talent and ability but also what the team decides to do with Evan Engram. If Engram gets locked up with a long-term deal, Strange will undoubtedly be the second fiddle to Engram. Strange won’t be drafted high, so he’s worth the dice roll. The risk is baked into his ADP, but the upside as possibly the starter in 2024 on a Trevor Lawrence-led team isn’t. Doug Pederson can scheme up Strange to best utilize his straight-line explosiveness on crossers. Strange likely will never be a top-five-seven dynasty tight end drawing a 20% or higher target share, but he could become a low-end TE1 in dynasty at some point if Engram moves on.

Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft Results & Board

Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft Superflex Early Pick 2023 Fantasy Football

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