Las Vegas Raiders
WR Hunter Renfrow
Hunter Renfrow is this year’s Curtis Samuel. Everybody is just going to completely forget that Renfrow leveraged his savvy route-running to a 111-1096-9 stat line in 2021 because he was never healthy at any point in 2022. Don’t be that person who overlooks Renfrow. He showed in Week 18 that he still has “it” going a perfect 7-for-7 for a season-high 63 yards and 1 TD.
WR Jakobi Meyers
Meyers ranks 26th in targets and 24th in target share (21.4%) over the last two seasons. He inked a 3-year deal with the Raiders this offseason, reuniting him with his former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. He joins a Las Vegas offense filled with playmakers, including Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Hunter Renfrow. And that offense will be led by ex-Patriots and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. And that’s where things could be problematic for Meyers, who has been the target hog in a lackluster Patriots offense over the last two seasons. It’s hard to envision Meyers commanding a 23% target share (a mark he has reached the last two seasons) with Adams’ alpha presence in the offense, along with Renfrow chipping in. However, the Waller trade suggests Meyers could still end up as the clear-cut No. 2 – which is a pretty enticing role. I’d imagine Meyers still plays primarily on the outside, with Renfrow operating from the slot in 11 personnel, which means Meyers won’t leave the field. Both guys are fringy WR3/4 options, but I’ll give a slight lean toward Meyers, with him most likely taking over the Hollins role. Hollins finished 10th in routes run per dropback (93%) and commanded 1,153 air yards as the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver in the Raiders offense last season. He finished last season as WR41 in half-point scoring, which seems like a nice floor projection for Meyers at this time. There’s more competition in the offense for targets, but Meyers is the superior talent after averaging nearly 2.0 yards per route run in 2022.
Meyers is currently a value in ADP as the WR57. The former undrafted free agent finished as the WR32 in half-point scoring last season, averaging 10.6 fantasy points per game (WR28).
TE Michael Mayer
30% of Round 2 tight ends finish as top-24 options since 2013, so expect 1-2 rookies to be fantasy relevant in Year 1. I don’t think you need to go beyond the first two guys that were selected in Round 2 with them facing little competition at their respective positions. The Raiders traded up to select Michael Mayer, who was pegged as a no-doubt first-rounder in all pre-draft publications. His competition in Las Vegas is just Austin Hooper, so he’ll hit the field sooner rather than later. This past season he caught 5.6 passes per game as his team’s featured weapon. Mayer offers the complete package at the tight end position, which will dramatically boost his chances for a high snap share.
RB Zamir White
Zamir White could see a larger role after a redshirt rookie season with Josh Jacobs’ touches having nowhere to go but down and him threatening to hold out by missing training camp. Josh McDaniels is notorious for never featuring rookie RBs, so White’s lack of playing time in Year 1 is not shocking. White was a polarizing prospect in last year’s draft process before he was selected in the 4th round by the Raiders. He runs with strong intent and decisiveness at the line of scrimmage. Knows where to go and how to hit the hole. Solid explosiveness and burst; constantly gets yardage after first contact. Elusive in space as a receiver.
The former Georgia Bulldog is built like a three-down back and posted Great testing measurables from the NFL Combine: 4.40 40-yard dash (93rd percentile) and 128 in the broad jump (94th percentile). White’s overall counting stats are not particularly great, but that’s because he split work with James Cook and Kenny McIntosh, like most Georgia backs often do.What matters more is White’s career three yards per snap – a mark that stacks up with the likes of Michael Carter, Rachaad White, James Cook, and Tyler Allgeier.
RB Ameer Abdullah
If it’s not White who steps up in the Las Vegas Raiders’ backfield, my money is on Ameer Abdullah. He and White have been splitting snaps with the 1st-team in Jacobs’ absence. But here’s why I think the long-time veteran could be the GUY that the Raiders trust in 2023.
Matt Lombardi is the new Raiders offensive assistant after formerly coaching in Carolina where Abdullah played at the end of the 2021 season (he was signed after being released from the Vikings). Lombardi’s brother — Mick Lombardi — is the Raiders offensive coordinator.
Abdullah’s 30% target rate per route run and 16% target share with the Panthers ranked 2nd among all RBs over the final four weeks of the 2021 season. His 25% season-long target rate per route run ranked fourth among RBs.
Abdullah was viewed as a potential dark horse to become the Raiders’ third-down back prior to the start of the 2022 season, although that did not transpire. Should also note that the Raiders running back coach, Kennedy Polamalu spent multiple seasons with Abdullah in Minnesota from 2018-2021.
There are coaches on this staff that trust Abdullah, and sometimes that is all you need to earn playing opportunities.
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Los Angeles Chargers
WR Quentin Johnston
Last season, Chargers No. 3 WR Joshua Palmer ranked 6th in the NFL in routes run. LA was the only team to have three different WRs averaging 35-plus routes run per game. So, there’s a case to be made that even with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ahead of Quentin Johnston on the current depth chart, the rookie can make a splash in one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses heralded by Justin Herbert. He’s big and fast enough to be a downfield weapon, which is perfect for spiked fantasy weeks. The 6-foot-3, 212-pound behemoth totaled 1,067 receiving yards, finishing fifth in his draft class with an elite 3.05 yards per route run. Johnston was a menace with the ball in his hands, finishing seventh in his draft class in yards after the catch per reception (8.9, 19 forced missed tackles). His forced missed tackle rate (38%) ranks first in the class per Sports Info Solutions. As a true freshman at 19 years old, Johnston broke out with a 21% dominator rating in 2020 as the team’s leading receiver, averaging 22.1 yards per reception – fifth best in the FBS.
TE Gerald Everett
I’ve been on the Gerald Everett bandwagon for far too long, but that hardly means I am jumping off anytime soon. Because he’s being vastly underrated after a solid season. He didn’t experience a full-fledged breakout, but he was useable (from tight end standards). He was the TE15 and ranked second on the team in red-zone targets last season despite modest snap usage (58% route participation). In a new offense led by offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, we could see Everett’s route usage spike. We saw firsthand how that role did wonders for Dalton Schultz‘s fantasy upside over the past two seasons. And Everett is still a superior athlete, giving him more upside than Schultz could ever deliver. Last year, Everett ranked 7th in yards after the catch per reception (6.5) while also finishing 8th in receptions (58) and 9th in targets (82). Those were all career highs. Long story short, Everett had a career year in his first year with the Chargers and is cheaper than last season. You know what do to. Mt. Everett 2023 eruption szn.
Deep Sleepers:
RB Joshua Kelley, WR Joshua Palmer, WR Derius Davis
There’s an NFL simulation where the Chargers lighten Austin Ekeler‘s workload to save him for the length of the season. And if there’s any guy that would step up in that scenario, it would be Joshua Kelley. The fourth-year man from UCLA set career-highs in yards per carry (4.0), PFF run grade (70.2) and elusive rating in 2022. But it’s clear that he is the next man up on the Chargers’ depth chart, should anything happen to Ekeler. That’s worth a dart throw in the 18th round of drafts, in the context of the Bolts’ high-octane offense. Like Ekeler, he’s a free agent at the end of the season suggesting that the coaches could run into the ground.
TCU’s Derius Davis earned second-team, All-Big 12 honors as a return specialist in 2021. He followed up his impressive 2021 campaign by winning the 2022 Jet Award, an award given to the best return specialist of the college football season. Simply put, this man can flat-out fly and somebody has to catch the ball deep from Justin Herbert‘s cannon arm.
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Los Angeles Rams
TE Tyler Higbee
Tyler Higbee could stumble into a ton of production in 2023. The Rams tight end finished 7th in route participation (71%) through 17 weeks, posting a 21% target share (4th) and 24% target rate per route run (3rd) among TEs with 80 targets. Ended 9th in PPR points per game (9.04). Higbee could easily emerge as the No. 2 target on the offense, and he could easily see his target share skyrocket should Cooper Kupp miss any time with his hamstring injury. He’s a great value as the TE15.
WR Van Jefferson, WR Tutu Atwell
Tutu Atwell was thrust into a larger role in 2022, and was halfway decent in a horrible situation. He finished the season 28th in expected yards per route run (1.85). However, from Week 12 onward when he started playing a full allotment of snaps, he still ranked outside the top 60 overall among WRs. All things considered, I still think I prefer Van Jefferson to Atwell. From Weeks 10-18, Jefferson was the WR39 coming off a major injury. But his 14% target rate was abysmal. How much of that is injury/QB-related remains to be seen. At least you can bet that Jefferson will be out there running a ton of routes as the locked-and-loaded No. 2 WR. Allen Robinson ranked 17th in routes run per game last season.
Both guys should see expanded roles if Cooper Kupp (hamstring injury) misses anytime.
Deep Sleepers:
RB Zach Evans, WR Puka Nacua
The Rams traded up to draft Zach Evans very late on Day 3. L.A. traded No. 252 and a sixth-round pick in 2024 to the Bills for Pick 215, where they selected the Ole Miss running back. Evans spent his first two college seasons at TCU, seeing limited usage alongside fellow 2023 draft prospect Kendre Miller. Evans was the clear frontrunner in the backfield to start his sophomore campaign but suffered a turf toe injury that cut his 2021 season short. Evans would go on to transfer to Ole Miss at the start of the 2022 season, where he posted his best college counting stats to date with a 17 percent dominator rating. His 15% boom percentage per Sports Info Solutions led all RBs in his class. However, he failed to fully take over at the backfield as he did at TCU, losing out on touches to freshman running back Quinshon Judkins. The fact that Evans has struggled to fully take over a backfield at the college level – along with no contributing role as a receiver – is a major red flag as he makes his way into the NFL, but his efficient play when on the field suggests he can deliver when called upon. His career average of 3.47 yards per play ranks second-best among the incoming rookie RBs I sampled earlier this offseason. Evans also boasts decent size at 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds – albeit the weight he measured at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine was much lighter than his listed weight at Ole Miss (216 pounds). At the Ole Miss pro day, Evans posted a 4.45 40-time (85th percentile), ran a 4.26 20-yard shuttle (54th percentile) and finished the 3-cone drill in 7.08 seconds (48th percentile). Evans’ best-case scenario was landing on a weak depth chart, and there is nobody threatening behind Cam Akers in the Rams backfield since Sony Michel retired.
Puka Nacua has been a fun toy for Sean McVay during OTAs, with reports of the team moving him all around the formation. Makes sense, considering FantasyPros’ own Thor Nystrom coined Nacua as “Discount Deebo” in his final draft player comps. I also liked Nacua’s profile coming out of college and felt like his 5th-round draft capital did not match his production. The 6-foot-2 and 201-pound wideout ended the 2021 season as a junior sixth in yards per route run behind future NFL WRs like Treylon Burks, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Drake London. And like London, Nacua operated primarily on the outside with a 78 percent perimeter alignment. Nacua finished his BYU tenure strong as PFF’s second-highest-graded WR in the nation (90.1) due to his impressive efficiency on per route run basis. He was targeted on 38 percent of his routes in 2022 and posted the second-highest targets above expectation in his class per Sports Info Solutions. On a depth chart with zero certified studs after Cooper Kupp — Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson — nobody would be shocked to see Nacua sneak into starting 3 WRs sets, especially with his versatility.
The Rams have a chance to be one of these “fun” offenses to target in fantasy because their bad defense will force pass-heavy game scripts.
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Miami Dolphins
RB De’Von Achane
De’Von Achane is one of the most exciting rookie running backs entering the league this season. In his final year at Texas A&M, Achane exploded for 1,100 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, while also catching 36 passes (3.6/game) for 196 yards. He finished the season with a 33% dominator rating, proving that he can handle a large workload as the clear-cut No. 1 back for the Aggies. Despite concerns about his size, Achane proved his toughness by carrying the ball 38 times for 215 yards and two touchdowns in his final game against LSU. Achane ended his final college season with the second-highest “hit at the line” positive run percentage, making the most of unfortunate situations when the defense pierced through the offensive line. The Miami Dolphins made a smart move by selecting Achane in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. It was the highest draft pick used on a running back by the Dolphins since Kenyan Drake.
He is a perfect fit for their outside zone running offense, and his elite track speed will make him a terror for opposing defenses. The current depth chart in Miami consists of an injury-prone Raheem Mostert and journeyman Jeff Wilson Jr., so Achane has a real chance to earn opportunities if not the starting job altogether. It’s not too crazy to think Achane can rise the depth chart that currently consists of a 31-year-old injury-prone Mostert and journeyman Wilson, the latter who was just placed on IR.
Not only is Achane a dynamic runner, but he is also an elite kickoff returner. He finished last season as PFF’s third-highest graded kick returner among 2023 draft-eligible players. This ensures he will be an active player on game days, giving him additional opportunities to make an impact. Achane’s potential in Miami’s offense and lack of competition behind him makes him a great high-upside pick in fantasy drafts.
Achane’s ADP is lagging with Dalvin Cook signing with the New York Jets and Jonathan Taylor remaining an Indianapolis Colt.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
The Dolphins opted to bring back both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson for the 2023 season, but Wilson’s contract is worth more and has more guaranteed money. Plus, at just 27 years old, Wilson has a longer runway for his career. He will be competing with rookie Devon Achane for snaps in the backfield but given his experience and demonstrated ability to produce in the Dolphins’ offense – he immediately took on a sizable role after being traded to Miami last season – Wilson should be considered the better option than Mostert among the two veterans. His ability to contribute to the passing game and his larger role in the offense makes him a strong late-round flier option for fantasy managers looking for running back depth.
Including games played with SF, Wilson was a fantasy RB2 in 53% of his games played last season – better than Alvin Kamara (50%). I’d be happy to draft the high-upside rookie Devon Achane and Wilson to capture the high-end potential of this Dolphins offense at a cheap cost.
Miami opens the NFL season on the road versus the Chargers, who have struggled to stop the run over the past two seasons. They have ranked inside the bottom-6 in rushing yards per game allowed since Brandon Staley took over as the head coach in 2021.
Alas, Wilson’s IR status puts his 2023 season in doubt. Mike McDaniel hopes he will return this season.
Deep Sleepers:
WR Braxton Berrios, TE Elijah Higgins
The Miami Dolphins BREED WR efficiency. Tyreek Hill nearly broke yards per route run at 3.07, nearly a full year more than the previous season. Jaylen Waddle wasn’t far behind at 2.46 yards per route run (5th) and 2.08 expected yards per route run (14th). You cannot go wrong drafting Waddle in Round 2/Round 3, presuming any step Hill takes back (potential for regression) would benefit the younger Dolphins WR.
The offensive system also makes WR3 Braxton Berrios an interesting deep flier and stash. He’s been the clear WR3 leader in the Dolphins training camp.
If Hill/Waddle were to suffer an injury, Berrios would step into a very lucrative role. And Berrios has shown the ability to command targets at a high rate when given opportunities in the past. Since 2020, Berrios owns a 24.3% target rate per route run. Ranks 14th among all WRs with at least 150 targets over that span.
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Minnesota Vikings
WR Jordan Addison
I love targeting first-round rookie WR Jordan Addison in this range. He tends to be cheaper than fellow first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite the former having the much better landing spot as the No. 2 WR alongside Justin Jefferson in the Vikings offense.
Minnesota selected Addison in the first round of this year’s draft, with the idea that he will step into the No. 2 WR vacated by Adam Thielen. That role last season translated into the 8th-most routes run per game. So even as the third potential target in the pecking order, Addison’s rare role makes him very different from the majority of other No. 2 WRs
It’s the NFL team fit and Addison’s college profile that has me fully expecting him to hit the ground running. Recall that Addison broke out as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020 with 60 catches for 662 receiving yards and four receiving TDs.
The early-age production is a sign of an elite prospect, and it clearly foreshadowed Addison’s rise to become one of the best WRs in college football. He transferred to USC from Pittsburgh this past year and led the Trojans with 59 catches for 875 yards and eight receiving TDs (79 targets). But more importantly, the 5-foot-11 and 173-pound wide receiver proved that he could play more outside after spending most of his time in the slot at Pittsburgh.
Deep Sleepers:
RB DeWayne McBride
DeWayne McBride did it all for the UAB Blazers over the last three seasons, totaling a top five dominator rating (27 percent) for his excellent efforts. He ranks first in the class in career yards per play (4.18) for being so efficient anytime he is on the field. His production is captured in his PFF grades, with him finishing second, eighth, and third, in PFF grading the last three seasons, respectively. Aside from being a complete afterthought in the passing game, McBride checks off a lot of boxes you want to see from a smaller school prospect, and he easily saved his best for last as a junior, finishing second in the FBS in rushing yards (1702, 155 yards per game), second in yards after contact per attempt (4.6) and fifth in dominator rating (35 percent) among the 2023 draft class. Per PFF, his 36 percent missed tackle rate ranks third all-time since the data started being tracked. With desirable size at 5-foot-10 and 209 pounds, McBride is emerging as one of my favorite sleeper running backs in the incoming class. He was selected in the 7th of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings.
However, it’s not necessarily wheels up for McBride to take on the No. 2 duties behind Alexander Mattison in lieu of the team moving on from Dalvin Cook. Ty Chandler was selected in the fifth round of last year’s draft and possesses a better three-down skillset with his abilities as a receiver. Considering he already has a professional year under his belt learning his NFL offense, he has the early edge over McBride. Vikings OC Wes Phillips when asked about Chandler’s readiness for an increased role on June 6 said, “I think he’s going to have to be.”
Can’t help but think the debates about this backfield will all be for naught when they add another body in free agency. Through the start of training camp, nobody has really stood out as “the” back to own behind Mattison (who has already gotten dinged up). But Sports Illustrated‘s Will Ragatz wrote about McBride looking like a natural runner, praising his vision and contact balance. Meanwhile, Chandler has underwhelmed.
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New England Patriots
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
JuJu Smith-Schuster projects as the clear-cut No. 1 option on his offense that nobody wants going outside the top-30 WRs. He is the WR52 in ADP and is the first pass-catcher drafted on his team. Even after signing a 3-year $33M deal this offseason with the Patriots after they lost their No. 1 WR, Jakobi Meyers, this offseason.
This was after JuJu led the Chiefs WR room with 78 catches (18th) for 933 yards (23rd) in 16 games. His yardage was the fourth-most among all WRs with fewer than four touchdowns. He was an integral part of the short passing game – 11th-lowest aDOT – ranking 7th in the NFL in yards after the catch per reception (5.9), 12th in receiving EPA and third in yards per route run on targets from 0-9 yards.
The 26-year-old also played a crucial role in Super Bowl LVII, commanding a team-high nine targets (38% target share) for seven receptions and 53 receiving yards.
Smith-Schuster is criminally underrated in fantasy football. Because there’s an upside to playing an every-down role on an offense. He and DeVante Parker are the clear top 2 WRs leaders in the Patriots WR room. With a gap between them and the duo of Tyquan Thornton/Kendrick Bourne. Even with the anticipation of a boost in 12 personnel with the addition of Mike Gesicki. I don’t imagine the Patriots are looking to get Smith-Schuster off the field. We’ve also seen offenses run plenty of 12 personnel, that did not hinder their team’s primary slot WR.
Christian Kirk (another FA signing that most people wrote off last year) finished 2nd in total slot routes (75%, 9th). Despite the Jaguars deploying 2-TE sets at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL last season. With Smith-Schuster healthy in training camp, he will be a great fantasy WR value OUTSIDE the top 100 picks. With the current roster, I’d hardly say Smith-Schuster has a massive bar to leap to earn targets in this offense with the slot role in his possession.
JuJu played a career-low 42% of his snaps from inside in 2022. Meyers played in the slot on 70% of his snaps last season. The ex-Patriots WR averaged a 23% target share and 30% air yards share as the WR32 in half-point scoring last season: 10.6 points/gm (WR28). New England also has the most difficult schedule projected this season. This means we could see decent passing volume from a team facing negative game scripts.
TE Mike Gesicki, TE Hunter Henry
Mike Gesicki, a tight end known for his versatility as a slot receiver hybrid, was not used correctly last year. But there should be optimism regarding his new fit in the New England Patriots’ wide-open offense, which is begging to give targets away. Recall that in 2021, Gesicki finished sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, fourth in route participation (78%), and fifth in target share (17%) over 18 weeks. These impressive numbers translated to a TE9 finish (TE8 Weeks 1-17) in fantasy football. His utilization as a slot receiver or wide alignment accounted for 94% of his snaps in 2021, granting him an advantage in creating mismatches. And that’s how he projects to play in the 2023 Patriots offense. It’s the perfect fit in Bill O’Brien’s system that puts players in positions to exploit mismatches. Particularly tight ends, such as Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Gesicki has frequently shined brightest when opportunities arise due to injuries or lack of talent to other players within the offense. And that’s exactly how the situation plays itself with him in New England.
The fact that he already has multiple TE1 finishes on his resume (TE7 in 2020, TE11 in 2019) bolsters his case as a great late-round tight end flier in 2023.
But don’t totally write off Hunter Henry either. Henry has been with the Patriots through the entire Mac Jones era, and the two have consistently flashed their chemistry through training camp. Considering Henry has been Jones’ favorite RZ target over the past two seasons, he has a TD upside in half-PPR scoring formats. The Patriots tight end should maintain a full-time role after running a route on 70% of dropbacks over the last two seasons (11th).
Deep Sleepers:
WR Kayshon Boutte
My primary wide receiver takeaway from “How to value rookie in fantasy football” is to go aggressively after wide receivers with Round 1 or 2 draft capital but be extremely wary of those that go Round 3 or later. Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated. It’s easy to tell yourself a story that guys like Derius Davis, Tyler Scott or Puka Nacua can have a stretch of fantasy production. But realistically, you are just praying for a spike week. I wouldn’t touch any of these guys outside the 18th round of a best-ball format. And in the case of Davis/Scott, it would only happen if I rostered Justin Herbert or Justin Fields as my quarterback. My one sole exception for drafting Day 3 WRs would be the new Patriots and former LSU wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. Despite being drafted in the sixth round, Boutte has shown tremendous potential during his time at LSU. As a freshman, he led the team in targets with 76, converting his volume into an impressive 22% dominator rating at just 18 years old. He followed that up in 2021 with another 22% dominator rating in just six games played, cementing his status as the team’s alpha WR1 after Terrace Marshall Jr. left for the NFL. Although he struggled with injuries in 2022 and failed to show the same elite playmaking ability as his first two seasons, Boutte ended his college career strong with a season-high 11 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown against Georgia. If Boutte is back to 100% health as an NFL rookie, he has the potential to be a steal in fantasy rookie drafts. Despite his fall to the sixth round of the draft, he has shown the ability to produce at a high level against tough competition. His youth is also a major plus, as he just turned 21 on May 7th. However, there are concerns about his work habits and attitude, as well as his poor testing numbers at the NFL Combine. He finished last in the vertical jump and second to last in the broad jump, which raises concerns about his explosiveness and ability to separate at the next level. Nevertheless, if he can overcome these concerns and return to the form he showed earlier in his career, Boutte could be a great late-round option in fantasy rookie drafts. And most importantly, he won’t clog your dynasty roster with middling production. He’s either going to hit or flame out entirely. There is no in-between. This is the way.
Through the beginning of training camp, Boutte had been out-played by fellow rookie WR, Demario Douglas. Douglas has earned 1st-team reps, showcasing his abilities from the slot. But as the team has transitioned to padded practices, Boutte has started to heat up. So don’t be too quick to dump him off your dynasty squads based on early training camp narratives.
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New Orleans Saints
RB Kendre Miller
Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller’s career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class).
Per Sports Info Solutions, Miller also posted the 4th-lowest bust run rate (percentage of plays that resulted in EPA below -1) and finished first in his class in broken tackles per 100 touches (18).
Miller did not test at all during the pre-draft process (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but that didn’t stop the New Orleans Saints from investing a third-round pick in him during the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is an ideal home-run hitter and 1-2 punch fit with veteran Jamaal Williams to start the year for New Orleans with Alvin Kamara suspended through the first three weeks of the season. Once the Miller genie is out of the bottle…might be hard to put him back in.
Saints DST
The New Orleans Saints have the easiest schedule based on Vegas’ forecasted win totals. And when it comes to the start of the schedule, no team has it easier over the first six weeks. The first six matchups are the Titans, Panthers, Packers, Buccaneers, Patriots and Texans. The soft-on-paper matchups are extremely soft for their DST to outperform their draft day price tag (free). Also works favorably in the Saints’ favor that they ranked so poorly in interceptions (7, 30th) in 2022. Hardly aligns with how well they generated pressure (4th in pressure rate). Only the Panthers dropped more INTs than the Saints did last season. Positive regression is coming.
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New York Giants
WR Isaiah Hodgins
Isaiah Hodgins seems like a completely forgotten WR, despite the fact that he could lead New York in targets in 2023. Once fully entrenched in the offense from Week 12 onward, Hodgins has zero drops on 45 targets and averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game – equivalent to Chris Olave and Deebo Samuel (WR25). He averaged 9.1 fantasy points per game overall and finished as a top-24 option in 44% of his 9 games played from Weeks 1-17.
WR Darius Slayton
The Giants are definitely home to the forgotten WRs. Next up, Darius Slayton. The former fifth-round pick went from an off-season trade/cut candidate to become the WR1 in the Giants offense as the team patchworked a functioning receiving room during the latter portion of the season. From Weeks 5-17, Slayton was the WR31 in total points (WR39 points per game) averaging 8.8 fantasy points, 59 receiving yards and nearly six targets per game (20% target share). The former Day 3 pick was used exclusively as Big Blue’s primary deep threat with a dominant 37% air yards share – a top-12 mark among all WRs. His 1.70 yards per route run represented a career-high and ranked 31st among 54 qualifying WRs with at least 80 targets. He also finished as a top-36 WR in 54% of his 13 contests (seven games).
That was equal to the likes of Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown. He actually finished as a WR3 at a higher rate than D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk and Garrett Wilson.
Slayton re-signed with the Giants in the offseason, inking a two-year deal worth $6M with $4.9 M guaranteed. He is currently the team’s highest-paid WR and should be a lock for a full snap share in 2023. He should be able to slide seamlessly back onto the perimeter as the Giants big playmaker opposite Hodgins, as long as he can fend off 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt. Hyatt offers a ton of upside in his own right, but it might not be until later in the season that he fires.
Deep Sleepers:
WR Jalin Hyatt
Jalin Hyatt was a big-play savant in a gimmicky Tennessee offense, giving him a wide range of outcomes heading into his rookie year. There’s likely going to be a steep learning curve for him, so I am bracing for the “mixed reports” during training camp. But from a sheer pure talent standpoint, Hyatt stands out tremendously compared to the rest of the Giants WRs. Remember, New York apparently was willing to take Hyatt with their Round 2 pick in this year’s draft, but they rolled the dice hoping he would come back to them in Round 3 after so-so testing. They also traded very aggressively to draft him trading a No.89 and No. 128 (4th-rounder) to move up to the 72nd overall selection.
Joe Schoen has ties to Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel, and that relationship played a part in the team’s confidence in selecting Hyatt. Brian Daboll sees comparisons to Gabe Davis in his game, but there’s no question Hyatt enter the NFL with a much stronger college profile than the Bills WR.
Hyatt also said in his post-draft presser that he plays much closer to 188-190 pounds, which is drastically different from his weight at the combine (176 pounds). Hyatt broke out in a massive way in 2022, catching 67 balls for 1,267 receiving yards and 15 receiving touchdowns en route to a 32% dominator rating. After an injury-plagued sophomore campaign, his elite junior season earned him the Fred Biletnikoff Award and unanimous All-American honors. The 6-foot and 176-pound Tennessee Volunteer played 87% of his snaps from the slot, finished sixth in yards per route run (3.27) and boasted the No. 1 passer rating (and almost perfect) when targeted at 156.5. His elite speed is too tough to ignore and will make him a big-play specialist.
RB Eric Gray
Eric Gray first burst onto the college football scene at Tennessee in 2020, rushing for 758 yards and four TDs with 31 catches for 262 yards en route to a 26% dominator rating as a sophomore. After the season, Gray transferred to Oklahoma for his last two years of college ball. His numbers fell after he lost his starting job in 2021, but he regained RB1 duties the following year. And he made his final year count, posting a 26% dominator rating with Kennedy Brooks off to the NFL.
Gray finished the 2022 season third in the class in PFF receiving grade and fifth in PFF rushing grade. The 5-foot-9 and 207-pound rusher finished the year third in positive rushing EPA and fourth in boom rate (rushes generating an EPA of one-plus). And per Sports Info Solutions, Gray posted the highest missed tackle rate per 100 touches in the class.
It’s also entirely possible that Gray could have been selected earlier by the Giants if they had more picks available to them. Big Blue didn’t have any other picks after the 73rd overall until they selected Gray with the 172nd pick. Considering New York’s RB depth chart is barren behind Barkley, Gray is a player worth monitoring. Could easily see this Giants coaching staff falling in love with Gray. He totaled 549 carries in college and never fumbled. And so far through training camp, he has impressed enough as a return man to likely earn “active” status on gameday.
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