Fantasy Football Draft Injury Updates to Know (2023)

1 week away from kick-off, but the injuries are already flowing. Here are the updates you’ve been asking for.

As always, if you aren’t finding what you’re looking for, hit us up on Twitter/X @SportMDAnalysis and @FantasyPros, and check out sportsmedanalytics.com for the rest.

Here we go.

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NFL Injury Updates

(1) Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)

Hamstring re-aggravations for WRs over 30 are obviously not great news. The initial injury took ~3.5 pre-season weeks to return, which pretty convincingly indicates a low-grade strain. The re-aggravations tend to be worse, but we can gain two pieces of insight from Sean McVay’s post-practice comments. First, they’re calling him day-to-day, which tells us this is probably relatively low severity. Grade 2+ hamstring strains are almost always called week-to-week right away. Second, McVay commented on needing him to be ready to return to performance rather than just to play. That suggests that they are willing to have him miss time if needed to get Kupp back for good.

The average timeline for mild hamstring re-aggravations takes about 2.5 weeks. The real problem is the re-injury rate – for a WR over 30 years old who has already injured his hamstring in the pre-season, re-injuries occur 20-25% of the time, and that rate is going to be slightly higher the faster he returns. Combining the context with the data, we’d lean towards Kupp missing Week 1 and returning Week 2. There is a real possibility that they slow-play this to lower the re-injury risk, but it would be surprising, based on the injury severity, to see him return later than Week 3 or 4. Expect a relatively low production impact by the time Week 3 rolls around.

(2) George Kittle (TE – SF)

This is another case of a player who returned from a muscle strain only to re-aggravate the injury. Kittle’s situation is made even riskier by the fact that he has a history of groin strains, causing missed time in the past. While the data does slightly favor him being ready to play Week 1, he’s going to carry a 20% elevated injury risk for the first half of the season compared to other TEs.

(3) De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

The video of his injury mechanism suggested an AC joint sprain. During the season, these average 2-3 for most RBs. Given his injury timing, we would expect to see him in practice next week and playing Week 1 against the Chargers. RBs typically don’t see major performance hits from this injury, and re-aggravation risk is only mild (~5-10%).

(4) Jeff Wilson (RB – MIA)

Achane’s positive outlook is especially relevant in the setting of Wilson landing on the IR. Most midsection injuries are core muscle strains, and most finger issues that are being treated without surgery would be bad sprains. With ~6 weeks to rest in between now and Week 5 (when he’s eligible to return off the IR), most of these issues would self-resolve. Therefore, we’d be surprised if Wilson doesn’t come back right at Week 5.

(5) Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

What an uncomfortable situation. Taylor has been listed on the PUP, but we remain skeptical that he is not healthy enough to play. He had an ankle clean-up surgery this off-season, and short-term results are relatively favorable. Most players return at full pre-injury form without much lag time. Furthermore, needing a second clean-up shortly after is relatively uncommon. So, although Taylor failed his pre-season physical due to his ankle, all that would take is him complaining of pain in that location during his evaluation. We can’t say for sure whether that was his way of avoiding practicing without a contract extension. Still, if we read the situation and trust the data, the odds favor him being ready to go whenever he and the Colts are ready to end the dispute.

And that’s all for today. If there’s anyone we missed, check sportsmedanalytics.com or hit us with a question on Twitter/X @SportMDAnalysis and @FantasyPros, and we’ll be happy to get you the answers you need. Happy drafting!