Here is Andrew Erickson’s late-round fantasy football draft strategy, including players to targt in the double-digit rounds of 2025 fantasy football drafts.
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy, Advice & Targets
Approach to Late Rounds in Fantasy Football Drafts
Check out my sleeper targets as part of my draft cheat sheet.
You should be actively implementing “what if” thought exercises in the late rounds of your fantasy football drafts. Simply put, “if ‘X’ happens, what would that do to ‘X’ player’s value?”
Again, this is most seen from injuries, with players seeing spikes in production/value when a teammate goes down. Some players have that factored into their ADPs with injury-prone teammates, but others do not. And at the end of the day, it’s full-contact football.
We can’t always project when/if said injuries will happen (although I am very in on injury-level regression at the team level), but savvy drafters can stockpile the back of their drafts with talented players who are being discounted because of their situation.
When in doubt. Fade overhyped and great roles/situations. Buy the talent that falls. One is stickier than the other.
Don’t overvalue early-season opportunities versus talent. Just buy the dip when ADP is so suppressed due to the situation. And don’t forget about the players who delivered worthwhile performances in the past when they were presented with opportunities. Being a proven asset in some capacity matters.
Players don’t always produce when teammates get hurt. Find those who step up when called upon, even in brief stints. These are the archetypes of players you should be looking to target.
Don’t worry about what Player A’s role will be in Week 1 when you draft them in the late double digits. Chances are that doesn’t matter. Focus on their range of outcomes.
I also believe in another thought exercise of “He’s the discount version of Player X.” I find it very useful.
Players with defined roles that go extremely late can also be beneficial targets. The constant bombardment of “upside-centric” analysis makes these players not talked about enough. There’s an upside to playing an every-down role on an offense when heavily discounted. Particularly in deeper redraft formats or best ball, when you sometimes just need innings eaters. I know (base) ball.
Still, chasing the upside-centric dragon is not wrong. You want upside on your fantasy football teams. But some balance never hurts. Because “only-upside” players typically also have extremely shaky floors. And too many guys who fail to fire will leave your squad helpless.
Last note. Chase players projected for air yards and rookies. Air yards tell us how often a player is being used downfield, which is part of the formula when it comes to spike weeks of fantasy production. Particularly at wide receiver and tight end.
Some potential late-round options in 2025 drafts that commanded a high end of their team’s air yards (20% or higher) in 2024 include Calvin Ridley, Rome Odunze, Jakobi Meyers, Jameson Williams, Darnell Mooney, Alec Pierce, Kayshon Boutte, Tre Tucker, Rashod Bateman, Darius Slayton, Joshua Palmer, Demarcus Robinson, Xavier Worthy, Jaylen Waddle, Romeo Doubs and Elijah Moore.
When it comes to rookies, you need to be aggressive in drafting them. This is the position that is great for taking shots in the later rounds.
Their ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. The ADP acts more like a hedge or median projection when first-year players of recent years are so much more boom-or-bust. They either hit in a big way or flame out entirely. But it’s OK to miss.
They are lottery tickets frequently discounted outside of the top 36. Take full advantage. They won’t all hit. But being overweight on rookies will net you in the green.
Keep in mind, rookie wide receiver roles often grow as the season progresses. That makes them the perfect backfill targets for drafting formats with prize structures heavily based on the final few weeks of the season. My favorite strategy is drafting veterans and rookie wide receivers from the same teams. It’s a very underrated strategy that helps you capture an immense upside. Also, it guarantees you at least one “hit” from each receiver group you draft.
Last year would have looked like this from some of the top guys:
- Bears: DJ Moore, Rome Odunze
- Jaguars: Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr.
- Chiefs: Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy
- 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall
- Panthers: Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette
- Bills: Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir
- Chargers: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston
- Patriots: DeMario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk
- Colts: Michael Pittman Jr., Adonai Mitchell
- Buccaneers: Chris Godwin/Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan
We didn’t see this work nearly as well as in 2023 (given a lot of the rookie wideouts were drafted as WR1s), but buying the discounted rookie/veteran receivers because of the presence of just one other pass-catcher makes it easier for them to smash their ADPs. If I draft Nico Collins in round one/round two, you better believe I am stocking up on the Texans’ rookie wideouts.
If you missed out on a quality tight end in the early rounds, then chasing quantity with multiple guys in the late rounds is your new strategy. But, in all honesty, this “late-round tier” starts after the top 5-6 guys (Travis Kelce/T.J. Hockenson).
I don’t overextend for any of these tight ends because the production will likely be negligible, at best, drafting toward the beginning of the tier versus the end. Wait and take shots on multiple tight ends. Ideally, ones with either a path for receiving volume, one with an every-down role and/or one with above-average athleticism.
My favorite late-round tight ends to target (outside the top six) include Evan Engram, David Njoku and Tucker Kraft, followed by Isaiah Likely, Hunter Henry and Chig Okonkwo.
My favorite late-round quarterback options include Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud.
I discussed ad nauseam the advantage you can acquire by drafting an elite tight end or quarterback in the early portions of your draft (especially in best ball). But chances are you aren’t doing both. Savvy drafters won’t let the elite onesie positions go by too frequently.
There’s a chance you might need to address the position as the middle rounds kick off. The “safe” route is going with the quarterback. Expensive tight ends bust at such a higher rate, historically speaking. Among the elite tier of Brock Bowers, George Kittle and Trey McBride, chances are one will bust (injury or not).
But on the flip side, there are so many options available with the late-round quarterback approach that it is my favorite strategy to implement in 2025.
The early-season schedule is also key when following a late-round quarterback approach. Signal-callers with a favorable schedule to start the year include Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, Drake Maye, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Michael Penix, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa.
Among the top-10 quarterbacks last season in total points scored in 2022, eight rushed for at least 250 yards. In 2023, six of the top eight rushed for at least 240 yards. In 2024, 10 of the 13 highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks rushed for at least 300 yards while attempting 500+ passes.
Call it the 50-30 rule. Can quarterback “X” throw 500+ times and/or rush for 300 yards? Those are your top targets.
The quarterbacks that accomplished this feat in 2024 were Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray. Drake Maye likely would have hit it as well had he played a full allotment of games.
Per Mike Clay’s 2025 fantasy football projections, quarterbacks with at least 520 projected pass attempts and 250+ projected rushing yards are Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, Bryce Young, Geno Smith and Cam Ward.
The bolded signal-callers are in the 300 rushing yards range.
I also believe that what’s different this year is that it’s the year for the rookie running backs. Understandably, the veterans bounced back in 2024. Huge year for the older guys. But I don’t think it repeats. Get the young bucks. And honestly, I don’t care about the price.
You can draft a discount veteran running back later to fill the early-season production void.
Top Double-Digit Round Targets (Fine to Reach)
Round 11 Targets
Round 12 Targets
Round 13 Targets
Round 14 Targets
Round 15 Targets
Round 16 Targets
Final Round Targets (Outside of the top 200)
- Dyami Brown
- Blake Corum
- Will Shipley
- Chig Okonkwo
- Ja’Tavion Sanders
- Jaylin Noel
- Ben Sinnott
- Brashard Smith
- Kyle Monangai
- Arizona D/ST (The only D/ST you need to draft)
- Patriots D/ST (If Arizona is gone)
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