The Primer: Week 3 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -2.5, O/U 45
• Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Christian McCaffrey
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kyler Murray (QB)

As the QB20 in fantasy points per game, Kyler Murray hasn’t managed a QB1 performance this season. Murray ranks 19th in yards per attempt, 13th in CPOE, 21st in catchable target rate, and 17th in fantasy points per dropback. He is also ninth in rushing yards per game and 14th in rushing attempts per game among quarterbacks. Murray doesn’t have any rushing scores yet despite having two red zone rushing attempts. Murray could log his first QB1 performance of the season this week. The 49ers’ pass defense isn’t terrifying. They rank 15th in success rate per dropback while giving up the 13th-highest CPOE and 11th-highest passer rating. Murray should have time in the pocket this week against a defense that ranks 17th in pressure rate.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

James Conner (RB)

James Conner has touchdowns in back-to-back games to save his fantasy outings as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged only 14 touches and 48 total yards this season. Last week, Conner played 52.1% of the snaps with 11 of 14 carries for the running backs and a 27.6% route share. This season, he has four red zone carries and all of the team’s inside the five-yard line carries (three). His 17% missed tackle rate is decent, but his 1.91 yards after contact per attempt is lacking. If Conner’s role is this minuscule, as a committee back, and he loses nearly all of his passing game usage, he’ll need to continue to run hot with touchdowns to keep his fantasy stock from tanking. The 49ers should allow him to make some noise on the ground this week, though. San Francisco has allowed the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, the ninth-most yards after contact per attempt, and logged the fourth-lowest stuff rate.

Trey Benson (RB)

Through two games, Trey Benson has played 33.3-45.8% of the snaps while averaging eight touches and 48.7 total yards. Last week, he had a 55.5% route share as the team’s passing-down back. He also had three carries, but Conner did the heavy lifting on early downs (11 carries). Benson has two red zone carries to Conner’s four. We could see Benson slowly take over this backfield if Conner’s per-touch efficiency doesn’t improve moving forward. Benson has been impressive with a 27% missed tackle rate and 3.45 yards after contact per attempt. For now, he’s just a middling flex play with his role still evolving. The 49ers should allow him some room to run this week. San Francisco has allowed the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, the ninth-most yards after contact per attempt, and logged the fourth-lowest stuff rate.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Ricky Pearsall is the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He has a 17.6% target share, a 45.8% air-yard share, 2.41 yards per route run, and a 24.5% first-read share. Last week, with Jauan Jennings back, he had a 15.4% target share and a 23.1% first-read share as Jennings led the team in both categories (23.1%, 30.8%). Pearsall is tied for second on the team with two red zone targets. He’s posting solid if not strong numbers on a per-route basis, but it’s not great that his market share immediately dropped with Jennings’ return to the lineup. It’s only one game, so I’m not going to panic. This week, Pearsall faces an Arizona secondary that utilizes two high at the ninth-highest rate (55.6%). Against two high, Pearsall has only an 11% target per route run rate, 1.08 yards per route run, and an 11% first-read share. This isn’t the week to flex him if you can help it. The matchup looks tough on paper, but Arizona will be without Will Johnson today and with Jauan Jennings out Pearsall should see a volume bump.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Mac Jones (QB)

In his first start with the 49ers, Mac Jones finished as the QB9 in fantasy for Week 2. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he had a solid performance ranking 17th in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, and 10th in highly accurate throw rate. Jones could easily continue to flirt with QB1 production while Brock Purdy is out. The system and surrounding talent are good enough to make that happen. This week is probably not the one to look to stream Jones, though. Arizona has fielded a strong pass defense through two games, allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-lowest CPOE. Jones should still provide decent QB2 numbers this week.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Jauan Jennings is out this week. He’s dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the WR40 in fantasy points per game with one solid game and one dud on his 2025 resume. He has an 18.5% target share, 1.61 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. He leads the team with three red zone targets. The 49ers have utilized single-high at the 12th-highest rate (58.5%). This season against single high, Harrison Jr. has a 17.2% target share with only 0.94 yards per route run and a 15% first-read share. This doesn’t project as a monster week for Harrison Jr. He’ll need to hit paydirt to pay off in fantasy. The 49ers have allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears

• DAL -1, O/U 50.5
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Dak Prescott
• CeeDee Lamb

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Javonte Williams (RB)

Javonte Williams is the RB3 in fantasy points per game. Yep, you read that right. Williams proved in Week 2 that his Week 1 outing was just a taste of things to come with a 17% missed tackle rate and awesome every-down usage. He has averaged 20.5 touches and 97 total yards, while ranking 11th in snapshare (74.8%), seventh in route share (57.6%), and 14th in target share (10.5%) among running backs. Overall, he ranks 17th in explosive run rate and eighth-best in yards after contact per attempt. He’s set up for another strong outing in Week 3 against a run defense that has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most rushing yards per game, and the tenth-highest missed tackle rate.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

D’Andre Swift is the RB22 in fantasy football, but it has been volume-fueled as the efficiency hasn’t been there. Could that continue weekly? Yep. It easily could. He has averaged 17.5 touches and 67 total yards, but his per-touch metrics have been ghastly. Swift has only a 7% missed tackle rate and 1.62 yards after contact per attempt. Swift could easily rack up volume on his way to another solid day with a nice matchup this week. Dallas has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and has managed the sixth-lowest stuff rate. Swift was listed as questionable (hamstring). He is expected to play this week.

DJ Moore (WR)

D.J. Moore has taken a backseat to Rome Odunze this season. He is the WR54 in fantasy points per game with a 16.2% target share, a 23.3% air-yard share, and a 19% first-read share. Moore has averaged 57 receiving yards per game with 1.56 yards per route run. This week is a sneaky opportunity for Moore to have a boom game. Dallas has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (64.1%). Against two high, Moore has seen his target share skyrocket to 27.3% with 3.32 yards per route run and a 36.8% first-read share. These are bonkers numbers. Add in that Dallas has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, and Moore looks primed to smash this week.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Rome Odunze is breaking out in a big way as the WR4 in fantasy points per game. He has a 27.9% target share with 2.14 yards per route run and a 33.3% first-read share. He’s set up for another strong week. Dallas has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (64.1%). Against two high, Odunze has seen his numbers dip somewhat, but they are still solid with a 24.2% target share, a 45.9% air-yard share, 1.82 yards per route run, and a 26.3% first-read share. Dallas has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Jake Ferguson is the TE7 in fantasy, absorbing a 20.9% target share and 25.4% first-read share while producing 1.46 yards per route run and 50.5 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a pass defense that has utilized the fifth-highest rate of two high (62.3%). Against two high, Ferguson has seen his target share increase to 23.8% with 2.16 yards per route run and a 33.3% first-read share. He should be busy in Week 3 as Dak Prescott‘s second option in the passing attack. Chicago is 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

George Pickens (WR)

George Pickens is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, but he bounced back from a quiet Week 1 as the WR14 in weekly scoring last week. Pickens has a 14% target share, a 25.6% air-yard share, and an 18.6% first-read share with 1.15 yards per route run (0.082 first downs per route run). He’ll face a pass defense that has utilized the fifth-highest rate of two high (62.3%). Against two high, Pickens has a 14.3% target share, 0.93 yards per route run, and a 20.8% first-read share. None of these numbers is outstanding, but they could all be aided by facing a secondary that just lost Jaylon Johnson and had already allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Caleb Williams‘ rough outing in Week 1 has been well documented. His Week 2 performance offered hope that he is progressing in this new offensive system. Last week, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 11th in catchable target rate, and he had the 13th-lowest off-target rate. He was still 27th in highly accurate throw rate, but at this point, we just want to see baby steps forward weekly. For fantasy purposes, Williams has been perfectly fine as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. His rushing output has helped in that department as he has averaged 5.5 rushing attempts and 42.5 rushing yards. Williams could be headed for a big day against a struggling Dallas secondary if Chicago can give him clean pockets. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the highest CPOE. Dallas ranks 13th in pressure rate. The Bears rank 17th in pressure rate allowed. When pressured, Williams has only 5.0 yards per attempt and a 34.8 passer rating (third-worst). Williams’ range of outcomes this week is wider than most will expect because his week will depend heavily upon his offensive line.

Luther Burden (WR)

Luther Burden is borderline droppable at this point. He ran only four routes in Week 2. Could this change in the upcoming weeks? Yep. It’s easily possible, but Caleb Williams currently is only supporting one fantasy asset in this offense. Until his play improves, asking him to support the third or fourth speculative option in the passing attack is too much.

Colston Loveland (TE)

Colston Loveland remains unstartable in fantasy football. In Week 2, he still only played a part-time role with a 47.5% route share and 3% target share. Until he supplants Cole Kmet as the every-down tight end, he has to remain on the bench.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants

• KC -6, O/U 45
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Patrick Mahomes II
• Malik Nabers
• Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Russell Wilson (QB)

Ok, Russell Wilson…I’m sorry. After Week 1, I doubted him and didn’t think he could even finish the game in Week 2 after his dreadful opening weekend. Mr. Unlimited shoved that thought right in my face. Wilson finished Week 2 as the QB2 in fantasy. Wilson still has some warts in his per-dropback metrics. While he ranks eighth in yards per attempt, 13th in passer rating, seventh in deep ball rate, and 11th in CPOE, Wilson also sits at 29th in highly accurate throw rate and 24th in catchable target rate. Wilson will have some more moments this season for as long as he keeps the starting job. This week could be another one against what has been an underachieving Chiefs pass defense. Kansas City has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE.

Tyquan Thornton (WR)

Tyquan Thonton is flex viable. Last week, he had a 17.2% target share with a 60.9% air-yard share (34.0 aDOT), 59 receiving yards (2.11 yards per route run), and a 25% first-read share (led the team). He’s operating as Patrick Mahomes’ deep threat, which isn’t a bad role to have this week. The Giants have allowed the sixth-most deep passing yards per game and are tied for the 12th-highest deep ball completion rate (adjusted). The Giants also have utilized single-high at the seventh-highest rate (60.6%). Against single high, Thornton leads the team with 2.57 yards per route run and is second with a 24% first-read share. He could easily take a deep target to the house again this week. The Giants have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

After a monster game in Week 2, Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR9 in fantasy points per game. He is tied for second on the team with two red zone targets. Robinson has a respectable aDOT (11.0) now while seeing a 23.1% target share, a 27.6% air-yard share, and a 32% first-read share. He has averaged 98.5 receiving yards per game with 2.77 yards per route run. Robinson is a VERY strong play this week. The Chiefs have the sixth-highest rate of two high (62.1%). Against two high, Robinson has seen his first-read share increase to 37% and his yards per route run climb to 3.45. The Chiefs have been torched by slot receivers, allowing the seventh-highest PPR points per target. Start Robinson this week.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Isiah Pacheco (RB)

Isiah Pacheco has been a massive letdown to this point. He has averaged 53% of the snaps, had 15 of 29 running back carries, and a 37.6% route share. He has averaged only nine touches and 28.5 total yards. His per-touch numbers also haven’t been anything to write home about, with zero explosive runs, a 7% missed tackle rate, and only 2.40 yards after contact per attempt. He has only one red zone rushing attempt, while Kareem Hunt and Patrick Mahomes have combined for five. This might be the last hurrah. If Pacheco can’t post a nice stat line this week, it might be time to consider giving up hope. The Giants have fielded one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing the most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest explosive run rate, and the second-most yards after contact per attempt.

Hollywood Brown (WR)

Last week, Hollywood Brown came crashing back to Earth with a 17.2% target share, a 7.9% air-yard share (4.4 aDOT), 30 receiving yards (1.00 yards per route run), and a 20% first-read share. Brown wasn’t moving around like he was fully healthy, as his ankle seemed to be still bothering him. With his target share and aDOT cratering in Week 2, I have zero interest in playing Brown in Week 3. His per-route metrics don’t paint a prettier story with a -0.041 separation score and only a 6.8% route win rate. The Giants have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, so if you want to flex him, I understand it, depending on your options. I just have zero faith that Brown will take advantage of the juicy matchup.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Cam Skattebo (RB)

The Cam Skattebo takeover has begun. In Week 2, he led the Giants’ backfield in snap share (50.8%), route share (40%), rushing attempts (11 of 16 running back rushing attempts), and red zone carries (all six). He finished with 13 touches and 59 total yards as the RB22 in fantasy. Skattebo’s per-rush metrics are ok, but they aren’t amazing past his 7.7% explosive run rate. He has a 15% missed tackle rate and 2.38 yards after contact per attempt. The sample size is small (13 carries), so we don’t need to rush to conclusions. Skattebo hopefully has an even higher snap share this week, and his volume can overcome a horrible matchup. Kansas City has allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Sit Tyrone Tracy. If last week is any indication (it is), he’s losing control of this backfield to Cam Skattebo. Last week, he finished with a 41.5% snapshare, a 37.8% route share, five of 16 running back carries, and zero red zone rushing attempts (Cam Skattebo had six). He had nine touches and 51 total yards. Skattebo may take more work from Tracy this week, and with a horrible matchup and uncertain workload, I can’t play Tracy. Kansas City has allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

**I doubt Xavier Worthy suits up this week, but if he does, I would sit him. There’s no way to possibly project his route share and usage this week with his shoulder clearly still not 100%.**

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -5, O/U 53
• Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Lamar Jackson
• Derrick Henry
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Sam LaPorta

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Well, apparently, the Ben Johnson hangover for Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense lasted one game. Goff put up 34 fantasy points in Week 2. Among 34 qualifying passers, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt and CPOE, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and fourth in catchable target rate. The Ravens should allow Goff to flourish again in Week 3. After two games, Baltimore has allowed the second-most passing yards per game and the 11th-highest CPOE while ranking 16th in passer rating. The Ravens have generated the fourth-lowest pressure rate, so Goff should have all day in the pocket to dice up the secondary.

David Montgomery (RB)

After two weeks, David Montgomery has played 37.3-39% of the snaps while averaging 13.5 touches and 52 total yards. He has six red zone carries (Jahmyr Gibbs has seven) while also logging all of the carries inside the five-yard line for the offense (three). His per-touch efficiency is solid with a 4.5% explosive run rate and an 18% missed tackle rate. Montgomery is a touchdown-dependent RB2/flex. He could spike another one this week. Baltimore has allowed the fifth-highest rushing success rate, the seventh-most yards after contact per attempt, the tenth-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the second-highest zone rushing success rate (Montgomery 72.7% zone runs).

Zay Flowers (WR)

After two weeks of football, Zay Flowers is the WR7 in fantasy football. He has been a target hog with a 39.6% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, 4.45 yards per route run, and a 44.1% first-read share. It’s been awesome to see Baltimore feature him heavily. Detroit has the third-highest single-high rate in the NFL (68.3%). Against single high, Flowers has seen his target share increase to 45.2% and his first-read share climb to 47.6%. Flowers should eat again this week. Detroit has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jameson Williams (WR)

After a big Week 2 performance, Jameson Williams is the WR30 in fantasy points per game. He has managed only a 13.4% target share with a 35.1% air-yard share, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 12.5% first-read share. He hasn’t seen a red zone target yet. Baltimore has utilized single high with 58.3% of their defensive snaps this season. Against single high, Williams has seen his target share increase to 18.8% with 2.64 yards per route run, but his first-read share has declined to 9.5%. Williams could pop off this week, but he’s still more volatile than people thought he’d be entering this season. The Ravens had allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers, but they have faced the fourth-most perimeter wide receiver targets. They have surrendered the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. If Baltimore jumps out to an early lead, Williams could have a nice day, but if Detroit can run the ball and grab the lead, Williams could be quiet.

Rashod Bateman (WR)

Through two games, Rashod Bateman has a 14.6% target share, 0.61 yards per route run, and a 17.6% first-read share. Detroit has the third-highest single-high rate in the NFL (68.3%). Against single high, Bateman has seen his target share increase to 16.1% with a 23.8% first-read share. Since his box scores have been quiet, his bump in usage will go under the radar, but Bateman is a decent deep league dart throw flex this week. Detroit has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

DeAndre Hopkins has run incredibly hot with his minimal usage in a Ravens jersey. Through two games, Hopkins has had a 32.7% route share with an 8.3% target share and a 5.9% first-read share. He has averaged only two targets per game, but 49.5 receiving yards, and has two scores. This is incredibly flukey, and you still can’t put Hopkins into a fantasy lineup unless his usage changes.

Mark Andrews (TE)

Through two games, Mark Andrews has a total of four targets, seven receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. This is despite him leading the team with two red zone targets, having a 70.9% route share. He has had only an 11.8% first-read share. That first-read share did climb to 15.8% in Week 2, so I do think that Andrews will have better days coming. We’ll see if that is in Week 2, but I don’t have high hopes. The Lions rank 16th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends and have also given up the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -12, O/U 50
• Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• De’Von Achane
• James Cook

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyreek Hill (WR)

After two games, Tyreek Hill is the WR29 in fantasy points per game while seeing a 20.6% target share with a 42.9% air-yard share with 2.87 yards per route run and a 23.1% first-read share. Hill is still looking for his first red zone target of the 2025 season. Hill could have another strong game, but it could be Jaylen Waddle leading the way for the Miami passing attack this week. The Bills have the ninth-highest two-high rate (56.6%). This season, against two high, Hill has seen his target share dip to 19.5% with 2.05 yards per route run and a 19.2% first-read share (second on the team). He still gets to square off against a secondary that has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, so I’m not ruling out a strong stat line for Hill against Buffalo.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

After a wet fart stat line in Week 1, Jaylen Waddle was the WR14 in fantasy in Week 2. Miami STILL needs to feature him in the passing attack more consistently, which could be the case in Week 3. Overall, Waddle has a 17.5% target share, 1.88 yards per route run, and a 25.6% first-read share. He leads the team with two red zone targets. Waddle could lead the way for Miami through the air this week. The Bills have the ninth-highest two-high rate (56.6%). This season, against two high, Waddle has seen his target share increase to 19.5% with 2.51 yards per route run and a 26.9% first-read share (leads the team). If Tua Tagovailoa can play close to last week’s level, Waddle should have a nice week. Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

After seeing only a 55.8% route share in Week 1, Dalton Kincaid looked like he could be in store for an expanded role in Week 2, but the gamescript crushed him. The Bills smothered the Jets in a blowout, and their starters’ usage was muddied as they benched them in the second half. In the first half, Kincaid had a 70% route share, so we could see that the playing time threshold comes to fruition in Week 3 if Miami can keep this game competitive. Overall, Kincaid has a 21% target per route run rate, 1.81 yards per route run, and a 13.6% first-read share. He is also tied for the team lead in red zone targets (two). Kincaid and Khalill Shakir could be the receiving threats that Josh Allen leans on this week. The Dolphins have allowed the tenth-highest yards per reception and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

After falling on his face in Week 1, Tua Tagovailoa showed some life in Week 2 as the QB17 for the week. Overall, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks tenth in yards per attempt, 19th in passer rating, 22nd in CPOE, and 19th in highly accurate throw rate. His last two meetings against the Bills haven’t worked out well, with a 3:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and failing to surpass 240 passing yards in either outing. The reality of the Bills’ pass defense probably lies somewhere in the middle of their putrid showing in Week 1 and holding the Jets to 3.7 yards per attempt and a 70.8 passer rating in Week 2. Tagovailoa should post decent QB2 numbers in Week 3, but I’m not expecting much more than that.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

After a solid showing in Week 1, Khalil Shakir had a quiet game in Week 2, but the matchup wasn’t really conducive to him seeing heavy usage. Shakir has a 12.3% target share with 1.27 yards per route run and a 9.1% first-read share. Despite the lighter usage, Shakir is still tied for the team lead in red zone targets (two). Shakir should see an uptick in volume this week. Miami has the seventh-highest two high rate (61.9%). Last year, against two high, Shakir had a 21.3% target share with 2.38 yards per route run and a team-leading 27.3% first-read share. The Dolphins haven’t given up much production to the slot in two games, but in Week 1, Josh Downs wasn’t a full-time player, and DeMario Douglas in Week 2 isn’t a priority target in the Patriots’ offense. I don’t have a lot of concerns regarding Shakir’s ability to win battles against Jason Marshall Jr. (100% catch rate and 113.9 passer rating).

Joshua Palmer (WR)

After a strong Week 1, Joshua Palmer had a quiet Week 2 with an 11.1% target share, a 26.5% air-yard share, and a 16.7% first-read share. Overall, Palmer has a 16.4% target share, has averaged 54 receiving yards with 1.96 yards per route run, and a 15.9% first-read share. Miami has the seventh-highest two high rate (61.9%). Through two games, against two high, Palmer’s numbers don’t pop with an 18% target per route run rate and 15.8% first-read share. Palmer could have a nice day because of Miami’s hapless outside corners, but it’s tough to project that. Miami’s secondary has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. If you’re in a tough spot in a deep league, I get flexing him with the favorable secondary matchup, but he’s a sit in most formats this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Well, Keon Coleman didn’t see that Sauce Gardner shadow treatment in Week 2, but he still had a quiet game. Coleman did line up against Gardner with 52.9% of his routes with only one target and seven receiving yards to show for it. Overall, Coleman has a 19.2% target share with 2.30 yards per route run and a 27.3% first-read share. After polar opposite performances only two games into the season, we’re left to wonder which is the real Coleman and how to project him for the rest of the 2025 season. Coleman has a wonderful matchup on the outside this week against a Miami secondary that has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, but the coverage shell matchup could work against him this week. Miami has the seventh-highest two high rate (61.9%). Last year, against two high, Coleman had only a 13% target per route run rate, 0.76 yards per route run, and a 16.9% first-read share. We’ll see which side of the matchup for Coleman wins the day, but he’s a volatile flex option either way.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*