It feels like the fantasy football season just began, yet so much has happened, and we are already a quarter of the way through the season. There have been far too many injuries for my liking, but we’ve seen plenty of players emerge and have enough data to look at some early-season trends. How would things look if you were drafting today?
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How Your Fantasy Football League Would Look if You Drafted Today
Puka Nacua: 1.01
The third-year pro out of BYU has been fantasy football’s MVP through the first quarter of the season, particularly in PPR formats. Thanks to Matthew Stafford‘s back pain, Puka Nacua slipped into the early second round of fantasy drafts before the start of the season. Given how the rest of the draft’s top wide receivers have performed, that’s turned into a heist greater than anything Danny Ocean could pull off. After Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown, none of the other top 15 receivers were drafted as such. Part of this can be attributed to injuries, as always, but players like Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown and Ladd McConkey have simply struggled to begin the season.
It always felt as though Nacua was being a bit undervalued after the record pace he’s been on since entering the NFL. The fifth-round pick notched the seventh-most receiving yards in a player’s first two seasons, despite missing six games last season, and he secured the fifth-most receiving yards per game across a player’s first two years. He set countless yardage and reception records as a rookie and is on a record-breaking pace once again. With 42 receptions for 503 yards this season, Nacua is on pace to grab 179 receptions and 2,138 receiving yards, both of which would easily be the best marks of all time. It will be difficult to keep that pace, of course, but it puts into perspective just how dominant he’s been.
The only concern with Nacua, assuming all parties involved remain healthy, is how often he visits the end zone. He’s recorded a total of 10 receiving touchdowns through 32 games, although he has tallied a couple of rushing scores. The Rams brought in Davante Adams, perhaps the best red-zone threat in the NFL, to help aid their woes around the goal line, and the veteran receiver has hauled in a touchdown in each of the last three games. If Stafford remains healthy, there should be plenty to go around, but it’s the one blemish on an otherwise stellar season and career from Nacua.
The Optimal Strategy is Robust Running Back
Eight of the top 18 scoring receivers were drafted outside of the top 30 at the position. It’s unclear if that trend will continue, but there’s not much reason for optimism on many of the players who were drafted to be WR1s. On the flip side, the top 13 scoring running backs include just two players who were drafted outside of the top 14 at the position, and the RB2 landscape is becoming more distinct.
Again, this could always change given injuries and other factors, but running backs look much more predictable at the moment than wide receivers or tight ends. The top running backs all appear to be projectable studs moving forward, including James Cook, Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, among others, are also doing it every week.
Of course, high draft picks like Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Chase Brown have failed to live up to expectations, but each offers a clear path to improvement, while players like Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams have taken over their backfields and produced at a high level. J.K. Dobbins, Jordan Mason and Cam Skattebo are all coming on strong. Getting two to three bankable running backs for the remainder of the season is a priority.
Tight End Would be Highly Unpredictable
Brock Bowers is sitting at TE11 in half-PPR points and TE9 in PPR, making him an increasingly risky early-round draft pick. Hunter Henry is currently the TE1 in half-PPR, while Jake Ferguson is the TE1 in PPR. Trey McBride is lingering among the top scorers, as are Tucker Kraft, Tyler Warren and Dalton Kincaid, but Kincaid is playing fewer snaps and at risk of regression.
After that group, we are looking at Juwan Johnson, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz. Do we trust any to continue their pace? A couple of youngsters, Brenton Strange and Harold Fannin Jr., are bordering on breakouts, but are scoring similarly to veterans like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Sam LaPorta. T.J. Hockenson has been mostly a no-show, while David Njoku has disappeared, and Chig Okonkwo has failed to take the next step. Colston Loveland and Evan Engram have battled injuries and have been unimpactful when on the field, and with all of that, Darren Waller is scoring touchdowns again.
All caught up? The point of the rant is simple: Tight ends cannot be trusted right now. The best approach would be to wait at the position and grab an undervalued veteran, a young player with breakout potential, or both. Isaiah Likely will be returning to the field this week or next, and he makes for an intriguing target, while Loveland and Engram will certainly ramp up in their new offenses. Njoku could be traded, and the Browns will certainly look to make Fannin a focal point of the offense. Warren and Kraft are both on an upward trajectory and would likely be drafted in the top five at the position.
George Kittle should smash when he returns to the field, and there’s reason to believe other veterans can continue their hot starts. Ferguson obviously benefits from CeeDee Lamb‘s absence, but he’s a top option in a high-scoring, pass-heavy offense. Henry is operating with a breakout quarterback and without a true No. 1 WR in New England, while Juwan Johnson is being featured for the first time by new head coach Kellen Moore.
Of the top nine tight ends drafted, only McBride is currently in the top nine in scoring. With the current production likelihood at running back and general predictability at quarterback, coupled with the dartboard that is wide receiver, it makes sense to load up on receiver in the middle rounds and not place a premium on tight end.
Drake Maye, Caleb Williams & Daniel Jones: QB1s
With injuries to Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels and Brock Purdy, a few spots have opened up in the QB1 range, which have been claimed by Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert. Drake Maye is currently the QB6 with Caleb Williams and Daniel Jones sitting at QB6 and QB7, respectively.
Outside of the injuries at the position, the young trio would surpass previous QB1s in Kyler Murray and Jared Goff, while likely going ahead of Bo Nix and the previously mentioned Stafford and Love. Regardless, these three are firmly in the tier, and maybe at the top, with Herbert, Dak Prescott and Baker Mayfield. The best part is that each of the three quarterbacks is within the top seven in expected points, with Williams at QB3, Jones at QB4 and Maye at QB7. Each is finding success through the air while taking advantage of their mobility, with a combined seven rushing touchdowns between them.
I’d still bet on Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, assuming health, plus Patrick Mahomes and Mayfield both look terrific. However, Maye, Williams and Jones are good bets as anybody else to be the next men up.
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