New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
| Drake Maye | QB | QB1 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | RB1/2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | RB3 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WR1/2 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | WR4/5 |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | WR3 |
| Kyle Williams | WR | WR5 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | WR5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | TE1 |
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Joe Flacco | QB | QB1/2 |
| Chase Brown | RB | RB1/2 |
| Samaje Perine | RB | Doubtful |
| Tee Higgins | WR | WR1/2 |
| Andrei Iosivas | WR | WR3 |
| Noah Fant | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Chase Brown is back to Cincy CMC usage. Over the last two games, he has played 89% of the snaps, averaging 21.5 touches and 119.5 total yards. In that same span, Brown has had a 24.1% target share, 51.5 receiving yards per game, and 1.37 yards per route run. Since Week 6, Brown has been an explosive player (among 53 qualifying backs), ranking third in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. During that span, the Cincy offensive line has played well, ranking fifth in yards before contact per attempt. Brown should have success again this week. Since Week 7, New England’s run defense has taken a step back, allowing the tenth-highest missed tackle rate, the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt, and the fifth-lowest stuff rate.
Since Week 6, Iosivas has had only one top-36 weekly finish (WR13), but he’s flex viable this week. Since Week 6, he has had a 10.3% target share with 28 receiving yards per game, 0.81 yards per route run, and a 10.7% first-read share. His role in the offense could be elevated this week with Tee Higgins dealing with Christian Gonzalez and Ja’Marr Chase out. In his last five games, he has had four red zone targets and two deep targets. Since Week 7, New England has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game allowed to the slot while also giving up the eighth-highest PPR points per target to the position.
Hunter Henry is set up to crush this week with one of the best defensive matchups for a tight end. Henry is the TE20 in fantasy points per game with a 15.5% target share, 38.4 receiving yards per game, 1.46 yards per route run, and a 17.7% first-read share. He has nine red zone targets this season and five deep targets. The Bengals have allowed the most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Rhamondre Stevenson opened this week with a limited practice (toe). He had another limited practice on Thursday and was upgraded to a full session on Friday. He has been listed as questionable this week, but he’s expected to play. I expect TreVeyon Henderson to lead the backfield in snaps and touches this week as Stevenson works in as a change of pace back. Among 54 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks sixth in missed tackle rate and 31st in yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson is a decent flex play that could easily rack up some volume in garbage time this week if the Patriots run away with this game. Since Week 7, Cincy has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the second-highest rushing success rate and missed tackle rate.
Kayshon Boutte will be back in the lineup this week. Boutte is the WR39 in fantasy points per game, serving as New England’s field stretcher. In Weeks 1-8, Boutte had a 12.7% target share, a 28.3% air-yard share, 53.9 receiving yards per game, 2.10 yards per route run, and a 15.2% first-read share. In those eight games, he had nine deep targets (led the team) and only one red zone target. Boutte’s flex appeal and ceiling outcome arise from his downfield role, as he doesn’t have much touchdown equity in the passing offense with only one red zone look. The role could be fruitful once again this week, though. Since Week 6, Cincy has allowed the seventh-highest deep ball completion rate and the fifth-most deep passing yards per game.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Well, it finally happened. Joe Flacco had a “Joe Flacco” type of game last week as the QB21 in fantasy points per game. Still, after that performance, since Week 6, Flacco has been the QB3 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, among 36 qualifying passers, Flacco still ranks second in passing yards per game, third in passing touchdowns, sixth in highly accurate throw rate, and 14th in catchable target rate. Flacco faces a tough test this week against a resurgent Pats pass defense. Since Week 7, New England has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, the 11th-fewest passing yards per game, the ninth-lowest CPOE, and the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback. Flacco should still see enough volume to flirt with QB1 production if he can overcome the matchup. Joe Burrow will not play this week.
With Ja’Marr Chase sidelined by “spit gate” this week, Tee Higgins should operate as the team’s WR1, which will be problematic. He could easily see shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez. Since Week 8, Gonzalez has followed Jerry Jeudy and Emeka Egbuka on 61.3-78% of their routes, holding each player below 57 receiving yards without a touchdown in his coverage. Since Week 6, Higgins has been the WR6 in fantasy points per game with a 16.4% target share, a 33.8% air-yard share, 77.2 receiving yards per game, 2.05 yards per route run, and a 23.6% first-read share. In those five games, he has five red zone targets and eight deep targets. Higgins could have a down week in Week 12. Since Week 7, New England has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | QB2 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | RB2 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | RB3 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR1/2 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR3/4 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | WR5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | TE2 |
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jordan Love | QB | QB1/2 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | Out |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | RB2 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | WR2 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | Out |
| Christian Watson | WR | WR2/3 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | WR5 |
| Luke Musgrave | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Wilson will be the team’s every-down back. Last week, after Jacobs left the game, Wilson played 94% of the snaps with all of the rushing work and a 73% route share. Wilson hasn’t been a special player this season on a per-touch basis, with only a 1.9% explosive run rate, a 4% missed tackle rate, and 2.02 yards after contact per attempt. Wilson would be a volume-driven RB2, though. Since Week 7, Minnesota has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest rushing success rate, and had the 11th-lowest stuff rate.
Romeo Doubs is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, while leading the Packers with a 20.5% target share with 49.9 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share. Doubs is second on the team in red zone targets (ten) and leads the way with ten deep targets (tied). He should lead the way for the Packers’ pass catchers this week. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against two high, Doubs is tied for first on the team with a 24% target per route run rate with 2.03 yards per route run (second on the team). Doubs should also be leaned on by Jordan Love when he’s blitzed. Since Week 10, without Tucker Kraft, Doubs has had a 30% target share when Love has been blitzed. Since Week 7, Minnesota has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Christian Watson is coming off a wonderful game as the WR6 in weekly scoring while seeing a 19.2% target share and a 28.6% air-yard share with 46 receiving yards (2.00 yards per route run) and a team-leading 33.3% first-read share. Since Week 8, Watson has had a 12.5% target share with 2.23 yards per route run and a 17.5% first-read share. In those four games, Watson has had two red zone targets and EIGHT deep targets. Watson’s downfield role could help him immensely this week against a secondary that has allowed the highest deep ball completion rate and the 12th-most deep passing yards per game. Also, Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against two high, since Week 8, Watson has ranked fifth in target per route run rate (13%) on the team but second in yards per route run (1.73). Watson could have another monster game if he hits on the downfield looks. Since Week 7, Minnesota has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Jordan Love‘s up-and-down play has impacted his per-dropback metrics in recent weeks. He’s been quite volatile over the last four games with two top-ten weekly finishes (QB1, QB8) and two weeks as the QB24. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Love is eighth in yards per attempt, 13th in passing yards per game, and 17th in highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate. This week, he faces a Vikings’ pass defense that has improved to a middle-of-the-road unit since the return of Andrew Van Ginkel, ranking 16th in passing yards per game, allowing the 13th-fewest yards per attempt, and sitting at 15th in passer rating. Love could have a nice game this week, as he has been strong against the blitz, and we know Brian Flores loves to blitz heavily weekly. Love ranks ninth in yards per attempt, 14th in big-time throw rate, and fourth in adjusted completion rate against the blitz. Minnesota still blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (43.9%).
Since Week 9, with J.J. McCarthy under center, Addison has been the WR49 in fantasy points per game with a 20.2% target share, 34.3 receiving yards per game, 1.04 yards per route run, a 16.0 aDOT, and a 24.2% first-read share. In those three games, he has had two red zone targets and seven deep targets. The Packers’ pass defense has taken a step back against perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 7, they have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to the position. Addison is a risky flex play this week with some upside.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
In J.J. McCarthy‘s five starts, he has only one QB1 finish. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt, 27th in CPOE, first in hero throw rate, and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. McCarthy looks like he’s headed for another down game against the Packers’ pass defense. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passing yards per game, the 13th-lowest CPOE, and the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback.
Aaron Jones has taken over the Minnesota backfield over the last two games with a 69.2% snap rate while averaging 15.5 touches and 75 total yards. Jones’ per-touch numbers won’t jump off the page with his 3.8% explosive run rate, 6% missed tackle rate, and 1.71 yards after contact per attempt, but he’s a volume play again this week. His former team will make him earn every blade of grass this week. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
T.J. Hockenson has had a disappointing season as the TE26 in fantasy points per game. In his five games with J.J. McCarthy, he has had a 12.9% target share, 17 receiving yards per game, 0.68 yards per route run, and a 13.7% first-read share. In those five games, he has only one red zone target and zero TE1 weekly finishes. Green Bay has allowed the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game and the 13th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends. Sit Hockenson this week.
Last week, Musgrave had only a 34.5% route share and a 7.7% target share. Anyone hoping that he was going to assume the “Tucker Kraft” role in this passing offense is kidding themselves at this point. Musgrave isn’t fantasy viable and droppable.
BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Colts Players & Weekly Rankings
| Daniel Jones | QB | QB1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | RB | RB4 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | WR2 |
| Josh Downs | WR | WR3/4 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | WR3 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | TE1 |
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB | QB1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | Out |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | RB2/3 |
| Brashard Smith | RB | RB4 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR1 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | WR3/4 |
| Hollywood Brown | WR | WR5 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Daniel Jones is the QB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 14.3 rushing yards per game and five rushing touchdowns. Jones has the sixth-most red zone carries per game among quarterbacks. He has excelled as a passer this season. Among 43 qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt, first in passing yards per game, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, and sixth in catchable target rate. I was high on Bo Nix last week, and he played well despite it not carrying over to a strong fantasy day. Last week, Nix completed 64.9% of his passes with 8.0 yards per attempt and 295 passing yards. That was the second-highest passing yardage performance of the season for Nix and only the second time he had 8.0 or more yards per attempt in a game. Jones should have a strong game in Week 12. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and ranked 16th in success rate per dropback. Jones should have plenty of time in the pocket this week. Since Week 7, the Chiefs have the eighth-lowest pressure rate.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Michael Pittman Jr. is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 21% target share with 58 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 24.5% first-read share. He’s third on the team with seven red zone targets and second in deep targets (six). There’s more volatility with how the Colts will attack the Chiefs this week after what we saw from them last week than I anticipated. In Weeks 5-10, Kansas City had the ninth-highest single high rate (56%). Last week, they flipped the script and returned to their classic bread and butter as a two-high heavy defense (58.5%). The variations in their coverage structure mean massively different things for their receiving options. If they roll out single-high, I would expect Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren to lead the passing attack. If they continue with more two high this week, Indy will look to feature Josh Downs and Michael Pittman more. Against single high, Pittman is fourth in target per route run rate (20%) on the team with 1.45 yards per route run (fourth). Against two high, Pittman is second on the team with a 24% target per route run rate and leads the squad with 2.32 yards per route run. We’ll see how it all shakes out, but Pittman’s range of outcomes this week is wide. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Alec Pierce. The first of his name and the destroyer of single high. Pierce is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with top-24 performances in weekly scoring in three of his last four games (WR22, WR15, WR14). He has been crushing single high with elite per-route metrics. There’s more volatility with how the Colts will attack the Chiefs this week after what we saw from them last week than I anticipated. In Weeks 5-10, Kansas City had the ninth-highest single high rate (56%). Last week, they flipped the script and returned to their classic bread and butter as a two-high heavy defense (58.5%). The variations in their coverage structure mean massively different things for their receiving options. If they roll out single-high, I would expect Pierce and Tyler Warren to lead the passing attack. If they continue with more two high this week, Indy will look to feature Josh Downs and Michael Pittman more. Against single high, Pierce leads the team with a whopping 29% target per route run rate and 3.44 yards per route run. Against two high, he’s fourth on the team with a 13% target per route run rate and 1.38 yards per route run. That’s as wide a divide as you can get for a player’s outlook. Pierce is a boom or bust option this week. The Chiefs’ outside corners have been giving, which helps his cause this week. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Over the last two games, Hunt has been the Chiefs’ bellcow, playing 79.2% of the snaps with only 13 touches and 59.5 total yards per game as the RB16 and RB21 in weekly scoring. Hunt is a volume play that you hope gets into the endzone. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. The Colts remain a tough run defense to face. Since Week 7, they have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Josh Downs is the WR45 in fantasy points per game with top-36 weekly scoring finishes in four of his last five games (WR34, WR15, WR27, WR21). Downs has a 16.2% target share with 35.1 receiving yards per game, 1.59 yards per route run, and an 18% first-read share. He is second on the team with nine red zone targets and has three deep targets. There’s more volatility with how the Colts will attack the Chiefs this week after what we saw from them last week than I anticipated. In Weeks 5-10, Kansas City had the ninth-highest single high rate (56%). Last week, they flipped the script and returned to their classic bread and butter as a two-high heavy defense (58.5%). The variations in their coverage structure mean massively different things for their receiving options. If they roll out single-high, I would expect Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren to lead the passing attack. If they continue with more two high this week, Indy will look to feature Josh Downs and Michael Pittman more. Against single high, Downs is third on the team with a 21% target per route run rate with 1.52 yards per route run. Against two high, Downs leads the team with a 26% target per route run rate and is third in yards per route run with 1.66. The Chiefs have kept slot receivers in check since Week 7, so that obviously doesn’t help Downs even if the Chiefs do utilize more two-high this week. Since Week 7, they have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Adding to the chess match of this game is the Sauce Gardner shadow possibility. I don’t see Sauce Gardner shadowing Worthy or Rashee Rice in this game. Gardner played nine snaps in the slot in his first game with Indy, but that wasn’t on Drake London, who he followed on 72.4% of his routes. My projection for how Indy defends the Chiefs is to revert back to their two-high structure that they utilized in Weeks 7-9 (53.5-65.6%). That would guard against Patrick Mahomes’ deep ball and effectively limit Xavier Worthy in the process. That would then leave Kenny Moore to deal with Rashee Rice when he is in the slot. Looking at the game unfolding this way would be detrimental to Worthy. If Indy moves back to two high, it’ll negatively impact Worthy, as he has only a 15% target per route run rate and 0.64 yards per route run against two high. Since Week 7, Indy has allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Worthy this week. I expect Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to lead the way for the Chiefs this week.
BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans
- SEA -13.5, O/U 40
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings
| Sam Darnold | QB | QB1/2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | RB2 |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | RB3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR1 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | WR3/4 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | WR4 |
| AJ Barner | TE | TE1/2 |
| Elijah Arroyo | TE | TE2 |
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Cam Ward | QB | QB2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | RB3 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB3 |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | Out |
| Chimere Dike | WR | WR5 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
The “old Sam Darnold” has started to creep back into the mix over the last few weeks. Since Week 7, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold has still ranked third in yards per attempt, fifth in CPOE, and second in highly accurate throw rate, but in that span, he has also led in interceptions, ranked second in turnover-worthy throw rate, and fallen to 21st in catchable target rate. Tennessee could be a nice dose of “get right” serum this week. Since Week 7, they have allowed the tenth-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback. This is a good spot for Seattle to inject some confidence in their quarterback.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Last week was what I had been hoping for, Kenneth Walker, all season. He finished with 19 touches and 111 total yards as the RB9 for the week. Walker got his first touchdown since Week 3 in the process. Let’s have a real conversation, though. It still wasn’t great. Walker still only had one red zone rushing attempt, while George Holani (two) and Zach Charbonnet (three) had more work inside the 20-yard line. Walker remains a volatile player. It’s not because of talent, but related to his usage still. Since Week 9, he has taken over more of the backfield, though, averaging 15.7 touches and 80.7 total yards with a 48.4% snap rate, a 39% route share, and a 7.5% target share. Since Week 9, he has had more red zone carries (eight) than Charbonnet (seven). Among 54 qualifying backs, Walker ranks fifth in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate. This week’s matchup might not be as great as it seems at first glance. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt. If we zoom in further, it isn’t amazing, though. I know it’s a small sample, but I have to bring it up. Since Week 9, with Jeffery Simmons (returned in Week 11) and T’Vondre Sweat (returned in Week 7) back, Tennessee has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, zero missed tackles, and the tenth-fewest yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if Tennessee’s run defense is as improved as I fear this week. If not, Walker should chew them up. If they have truly gotten better, it could be a disappointing showing.
Since Week 9, Zach Charbonnet has averaged 12 touches and 58.6 total yards as he’s taken a step back in the backfield pecking order. He has had a 40.3% snap share, which is less than Kenneth Walker’s, while also having a 25.6% route share and 3.8% target share (both less than Walker’s). During that span, Walker has had eight red zone rushing attempts, and Charbonnet has logged seven. Last week, Charbonnet had three carries inside the 20-yard line while Walker had only one, so this does remain somewhat of a fluid situation. George Holani has also gotten into the red zone mix, as he had two carries in the red zone last week. Among 54 qualifying backs, Charbonnet ranks 20th in missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. This week’s matchup might not be as great as it seems at first glance. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt. If we zoom in further, it isn’t amazing, though. I know it’s a small sample, but I have to bring it up. Since Week 9, with Jeffery Simmons (returned in Week 11) and T’Vondre Sweat (returned in Week 7) back, Tennessee has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, zero missed tackles, and the tenth-fewest yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if Tennessee’s run defense is as improved as I fear this week. If not, Charbonnet should have a solid game. If they have truly gotten better, it could be a disappointing showing.
Since Week 6, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have split the work evenly. Since Week 6, Pollard has averaged 12 touches and 51 total yards with a 50.7% snap rate, a 31.8% route share, an 8.9% target share, and five red zone rushing attempts. Pollard hasn’t exactly been efficient with his workload this season, with only a 2.3% explosive run rate, a 12% missed tackle rate, and 2.38 yards after contact per attempt. Pollard is an uninspiring flex this week. Since Week 7, Seattle’s run defense has fallen off and become an average unit, ranking 15th in rushing success rate allowed and missed tackle rate, and 17th in rushing yards per game permitted.
Since Week 6, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have split the work evenly. Since Week 6, Spears has averaged 9.6 touches and 53.6 total yards per game with a 50.4% snap rate, a 42.6% route share, an 11.3% target share, and four red zone rushing attempts. Spears has had only a 2.9% explosive run rate, a 12% missed tackle rate, and 2.29 yards after contact this season. Spears is an uninspiring flex this week. Since Week 7, Seattle’s run defense has fallen off and become an average unit, ranking 15th in rushing success rate allowed and missed tackle rate, and 17th in rushing yards per game permitted.
Since the arrival of Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp has had a 77.6% route share, a 16.1% target share, 48.5 receiving yards per game, 2.16 yards per route run, and a 13.8% first-read share. This week, Kupp faces a Titans’ defense that has the third-highest two-high rate (57.5%). Against two high, Kupp has seen his target per route run rate drop to 18% with only 1.04 yards per route run. The matchup is good for Kupp, so he is a viable flex play. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Since Week 10, Barner has had a 72.4% route share, a 17.9% target share, 35 receiving yards per game, 1.67 yards per route run, and a 10.3% first-read share. The Titans’ defense has the third-highest two-high rate (57.5%). Across their last two games, Barner has had a 33% target per route run rate and 2.24 yards per route run against two high. Across the last five games, Tennessee has ranked 17th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Barner is a viable streaming option at tight end this week.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Nope. Nope. Nope. You can’t pay me to play Cam Ward this week. Not against the Seattle pass defense. Nope. Since Week 7, Seattle has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, the lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE. No way. Good luck, Mr. Ward.
Since he arrived in Seattle, Rashid Shaheed has had a 70.7% route share with an 8.9% target share, 15 receiving yards per game, 0.73 yards per route run, and a 10.3% first-read share. He has had one red zone target and one deep target. This week, Shaheed faces a Titans’ defense that has the third-highest two-high rate (57.5%). Against two high, Shaheed has had only a 5% target per route run rate and 1.00 yards per route run. It’s a very small sample, but it’s not encouraging at all. Not nearly enough to step out on a limb and flex Shaheed this week. Sit him as his role still evolves in this offense.
Elic Ayomanor opened this week with a DNP (hamstring). I’ll update his outlook on Friday.
BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF
