Fantasy Football Player Notes

Etienne is dealing with a shoulder issue, and it has drastically affected his playing time. Over the last two games, he has averaged only 45% of the snaps with 12 touches and 60 total yards. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. The Bears run defense has been up and down. While they have the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, they have also been exceptionally vulnerable to gap runs. They have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate and have given up the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs and the 11th-highest success rate to this run play type (Etienne 64% gap). With this snap rate cut, he's a dicey RB2, but the path is there for him to pay off this week, even with limited volume.

Bigsby exploded in Week 5 with a 40% snap rate, 14 touches, 129 total yards, and two scores. He played 60% of the rushing play snaps and had a 33% red zone snap rate. In the three games this season, Bigsby has played at least 29% of the snaps, he has averaged 11 touches and 97.3 total yards. He's been absolutely electric. Among 57 qualifying backs, Bigsby is putting up efficiency stats that would make De'Von Achane blush last year, ranking first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. The Bears run defense has been up and down. While they have the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, they have also been exceptionally vulnerable to gap runs. They have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate and have given up the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs and the 11th-highest success rate to this run play type (Bigsby 67.6% gap). Bigsby is a strong flex play this week that could finish with RB2 numbers.

Thomas Jr. has been sprinting out the gate as the WR13 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 3, with Kirk factoring into the passing offense more, Thomas has tied for the team lead with a 23% target share, led the team with 2.78 YPRR, and ranked second with a 28.8% first-read share. Chicago has the eighth-highest single-high rate this season (58.7%). Against single-high, Thomas Jr. led the team with a 24.2% target share, a whopping 3.64 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share. He'll stress a strong Chicago secondary that has limited perimeter wide receivers to the fourth-lowest PPR points per target. This is a case of strength versus strength, and let the best win the matchup this week. Thomas Jr. will run about 78% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (52.9% catch rate and 33.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (career: 66.7% catch rate and 86.7 passer rating).

Since Week 3, Kirk has been heavily involved in the passing offense as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. Over this stretch, he has tied for the team lead with a 23% target share, led the squad with a 32.9% air-yard share and 30% first-read share, and produced 2.48 YPRR. Chicago has the eighth-highest single-high rate this season (58.7%). Since Week 3, Kirk is second on the team in target share (21.5%), YPRR (1.76), and first-read share (26.9%) against single-high. Temper expectations for the Jaguars' talented slot receiver this week. Chicago has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Kirk will run about 82% of his routes against Kyler Gordon (65% catch rate and 89.4 passer rating).

Since Week 3, Davis has only drawn a 13.3% target share and a 13.8% first-read share while producing a measly 0.59 YPRR. Davis is still searching for his first week of the season with double-digit PPR points, and I doubt he will break the bottom-of-the-barrel streak this week. Chicago's secondary has limited perimeter wide receivers to the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game. Sit Davis.

Engram might return for Week 6 after limited practices all week (hamstring). In Week 1, before getting sidelined by injury, Engram had a 19% target share, a 15.9% air-yard share, and a 25% first-read share. We’ll have to see if Engram sees a full workload in his first game back. He’s on the borderline of TE1 status this week in a tough matchup. Chicago ranks 15th in yards per reception to tight ends while holding them to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game.