Fantasy Football Player Notes

Don't hit the panic button on Woods after his weak outing against the revamped Eagles secondary. He did manage to sneak in a rushing touchdown to ensure he didn't completely bust, but five targets isn't ideal. Still, it's one game. That was the first time he hasn't seen at least eight targets in a game since back in Week 8 of last year. The Bills are likely going to use Tre'Davious White to shadow Woods while he's on the perimeter, which is where he runs his routes about 55 percent of the time. He's one of the best cornerbacks in football and has allowed just a 54.1 percent catch rate over the course of his career, and that's while often shadowing opposing No. 1 receivers. There have been 17 wide receivers who've seen eight or more targets against the Bills over their last 18 games, but only five of them have scored more than 16 PPR points, which is middling WR2 territory most of the time. Of those five wide receivers, four of them were slot-heavy receivers (Jamison Crowder three times, Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker). You need to keep expectations in check for Woods this week, as he's likely a low-end WR2 for this one. He can still do some damage during that 45 percent slot usage.

We knew that Kupp's usage would change a bit this year with them wanting to run more 12 personnel, but he's still playing almost every snap and still running about 60 percent of his routes from the slot. That's a big positive in this matchup because of the top five performances against the Bills secondary over the last two years, slot-heavy receivers have accounted for four of them. This is highly unusual. Taron Johnson is the one who'll be tasked with trying to slow Kupp down this week. He was in coverage for eight of Jamison Crowder's receptions in Week 1, even though they amounted to just 56 yards. That's been Johnson's thing over the last two years, allowing a high 74 percent catch-rate, but limiting the yards overall by keeping the play in front of him. Kupp should offer a solid floor with the best matchup of the Rams receivers, though I can't say he's anything more than a mid-to-low-end WR2.

We're now two weeks in and Higbee has played a rock-solid 87.3 percent of the snaps. Not that you were wondering if you should play him or not after that three-touchdown performance, but if you were here, I told you his vitals were good in Week 1 despite a weak stat line. The Bills defense has been a magnet for tight end targets, as they've seen 20 targets (third-most), which has led to them allowing 15 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown. Those are great numbers and keep in mind that the two tight ends they played against (Mike Gesicki, Chris Herndon) have not been particularly efficient throughout their careers. Of the production they've allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, 24.1 percent of it has been the tight ends, which ranks as the ninth-highest percentage in the league. With the tough matchup for Robert Woods, we should see Higbee peppered with some targets in this matchup, making him a rock-solid TE1.

We were told by Sean McVay himself that this would be a timeshare in 2020 and he wasn't lying. Through two games, the touch count is: Brown 32, Akers 18, Henderson 17. We may have lost one part of that timeshare in Week 2 as Akers had to leave with a rib injury. That would certainly help clear things up and make us feel better about both Brown and Henderson, as the Rams running backs have combined to average 33.5 touches per game, which is enough for two running backs to be productive. The Bills run defense isn't anything too intimidating and they were without two starting linebackers last week, though you wouldn't know it by the stat sheet. They have yet to play a running back who's totaled more than seven carries. This is what happens when you play the Jets and Dolphins over the first two weeks. If you look at them last year, they allowed a healthy 4.37 yards per carry, though the 25.6 touches per game they allowed to running backs was the eighth-lowest mark in football. I've brought this stat up before and I think it makes sense to do it again given the Rams willingness to run the ball in the red zone. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills have now allowed 46 rushing touchdowns to running backs over 50 regular season games. That averages out to 14.7 per season. By comparison, there were just five teams who allowed more than that in 2019. If Akers is ruled out, Henderson is my favorite play as a high-end RB3, though Brown is right there in a tier below (low-end RB3). They come with risk, sure, but given the number of touches going around combined with touchdown upside, it's a risk you should be willing to take. Akers is currently questionable for the game, but don't be surprised if he misses at least one week with his rib cartilage injury.

We were told by Sean McVay himself that this would be a timeshare in 2020 and he wasn't lying. Through two games, the touch count is: Brown 32, Akers 18, Henderson 17. We may have lost one part of that timeshare in Week 2 as Akers had to leave with a rib injury. That would certainly help clear things up and make us feel better about both Brown and Henderson, as the Rams running backs have combined to average 33.5 touches per game, which is enough for two running backs to be productive. The Bills run defense isn't anything too intimidating and they were without two starting linebackers last week, though you wouldn't know it by the stat sheet. They have yet to play a running back who's totaled more than seven carries. This is what happens when you play the Jets and Dolphins over the first two weeks. If you look at them last year, they allowed a healthy 4.37 yards per carry, though the 25.6 touches per game they allowed to running backs was the eighth-lowest mark in football. I've brought this stat up before and I think it makes sense to do it again given the Rams willingness to run the ball in the red zone. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills have now allowed 46 rushing touchdowns to running backs over 50 regular season games. That averages out to 14.7 per season. By comparison, there were just five teams who allowed more than that in 2019. If Akers is ruled out, Henderson is my favorite play as a high-end RB3, though Brown is right there in a tier below (low-end RB3). They come with risk, sure, but given the number of touches going around combined with touchdown upside, it's a risk you should be willing to take. Akers is currently questionable for the game, but don't be surprised if he misses at least one week with his rib cartilage injury.

You would've thought that Jefferson surpassed Reynolds based on the target numbers from Week 2, as Jefferson saw five targets while Reynolds saw two. Unfortunately, that was not the case, as Jefferson ran just 15 routes while Reynolds ran 17 of them. They're still sharing that No. 3 wide receiver role, though Jefferson should pull away with it sooner rather than later. The Bills have allowed a league-low 6.42 yards per target to wide receivers this year, so volume is paramount for a receiver to be successful. No wide receiver scored more than 12.8 PPR points against the Bills without at least eight targets last year, so feel free to avoid them in this matchup.

You would've thought that Jefferson surpassed Reynolds based on the target numbers from Week 2, as Jefferson saw five targets while Reynolds saw two. Unfortunately, that was not the case, as Jefferson ran just 15 routes while Reynolds ran 17 of them. They're still sharing that No. 3 wide receiver role, though Jefferson should pull away with it sooner rather than later. The Bills have allowed a league-low 6.42 yards per target to wide receivers this year, so volume is paramount for a receiver to be successful. No wide receiver scored more than 12.8 PPR points against the Bills without at least eight targets last year, so feel free to avoid them in this matchup.