Fantasy Football Player Notes

Robinson has been disappointing thus far this season as the RB22 in fantasy. It's tough to blame his offensive line for the shortcomings, as they are ranked sixth-best in yards before contact per attempt. Robinson simply hasn't been breaking tackles at the same rate during this rookie season. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 41st in yards after contact per attempt. In Weeks 1-3, he averaged 19.7 touches and 85 total yards. During that stretch, he owned the backfield with 72% of the rushing play snaps, 91% of the passing down snaps, and 78% of the red zone snaps. Last week, his market share of the backfield volume fell off. He played only 47% of the rushing downs and 67% of the passing downs, with 11 touches and 74 total yards. This is a fantastic spot for a bounceback for Robinson. Tampa Bay's run defense has been like Swiss cheese. They have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest rushing success rate. The Bucs have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL.

London has been seeing a massive amount of volume as the clear WR1 for Atlanta. He has a 26.1% target share, a 37.1% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 37.8% first-read share as the WR31 in fantasy. He leads the Falcons with three end-zone targets. Tampa Bay has utilized single high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, London's volume and efficiency metrics have stayed stable near his overall output, while his first-read share has crept up to 38.6%. London will have to overcome a tough Week 5 matchup with volume. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. London will run about 65% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (37.5% catch rate and 43.0 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (68% catch rate and 95.8 passer rating).

Mooney is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with two top 36 weekly finishes (WR18, WR36) this season. He has drawn a 19.3% target share with a 32.9% air-yard share, 1.97 YPRR, and a strong 24.3% first-read share. Tampa Bay has utilized single high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, his target share has dropped slightly to 17.6%, and his YPRR has cratered (0.94). Mooney is best left on the bench this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Mooney will run about 58% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (37.5% catch rate and 43.0 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (68% catch rate and 95.8 passer rating).

Allgeier is a viable flex this week. Last week, he played a season-high 38% of the snaps with ten touches and 80 total yards. Overall this season, Allgeier is tied with Bijan Robinson with six red zone rushing attempts. Among 55 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks 11th in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Atlanta should lean on their ground game this week against the Bucs. They have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest rushing success rate. The Bucs have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL. Don't be surprised if Allgeier finishes the week as a low-end RB2 (if he gets into the end zone).

Just as Pitts offered some hope last week with a season-high five targets and 59 receiving yards, he followed that game up with his worst outing of the season. Pitts only saw three targets last week and failed to secure any of them as he blanked the box score. Pitts has only managed a pitiful 10.9% target share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 9.5% first-read share. That minuscule first-read share ranks fifth on the Atlanta depth chart. Tampa Bay has allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends while ranking 15th in receptions per game allowed to the position. Sit Pitts this week.