Fantasy Football Player Notes

You may think you know that McBride is having a good year, but here are a few stats that put his performance in perspective. Currently, McBride has 41 more targets, 28 more receptions, and 274 more yards than the next highest TEs. The gap in fantasy points between McBride and the next best fantasy TE (Travis Kelce) is equivalent to the gap between Kelce and the TE 25 (Darren Waller). As a result, the fact that he plays the Falcons this week shouldn't matter. Even though the Falcons have been the third-best defense against fantasy TEs on the season, they drop to the 12th-fewest over the last five weeks. Don't worry about any of that. McBride is a true fantasy X factor this year.

Last week, with Zonovan Knight injured and Emari Demercado back, Carter was given the keys to the offense to operate as their bellcow with an 80.3% snap share, 18 touches, and 94 total yards. Carter also had a 62.8% route share and a 10% target share. I expect Carter to operate in this role again this week. Carter hasn't been efficient with his workload, sadly. He hasn't managed an explosive run this season while posting only a 4% missed tackle rate and 1.39 yards after contact per attempt. Carter is a volume-based RB2/3. Since Week 11, Atlanta's run defense has picked up the slack, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.

Despite being outmatched against the Texans' defense, Michael Wilson managed to come through with 54 yards and a score. Considering he had 11 targets, fantasy managers may have expected more, but this Texans defense is incredible. Thankfully, Wilson has a better matchup against the Falcons in Week 15. Last week, Buccaneers' receivers combined for 234 yards against the Falcons. On the season, they are allowing the seventh most fantasy points to the receiver position. It's going to be fascinating to see Wilson's usage once Marvin Harrison Jr. returns, but until then, Wilson remains a low-end WR1.

The last time that we saw Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field with the "new-look" version of Michael Wilson in the first three quarters (before he sustained a heel injury), he had a 25.9% target share, 2.88 yards per route run, and a 38.9% first-read share. Harrison Jr. may step right back in as Trey McBride's running mate and as the clear 1B in the passing attack. It's also possible that he takes a backseat to Wilson. Harrison Jr. stated that his heel is "good enough to go," and his head coach stated that he is "getting his wind back a little bit." It's possible that Harrison Jr. isn't an 80-90% route share player this week or 100% effective. He has a wide range of outcomes this week, but he's absolutely flex-worthy considering the matchup this week. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.