Fantasy Football Player Notes

This game sets up extremely well for Mixon. Bengals QB Joe Burrow is coming back from a calf injury, so you have to figure that the Bengals will make an earnest effort to run the ball to keep the Cleveland pass rush honest. The Bengals will also be facing a Browns defense that was much better against the pass than it was against the run last season. Cleveland's defense ranked 12th in DVOA against the pass, 26th against the run. The Browns gave up 1,994 rushing yards to opposing RBs last season, the fifth-highest total in the league. They allowed 17 TD runs to RBs, third-most in the league. Mixon had a disappointing 8-27-0 rushing performance when the Browns blew out the Bengals on Halloween night last year, 32-13, although Mixon did have seven catches for 32 yards in that game. In a Week 14 rematch, Mixon had 14-96-0 and 2-10-0 receiving as the Bengals cruised to a 23-10 win. Expect Mixon to get a more substantial carry total against Cleveland this time around. For fantasy purposes, view him as a midrange to low-end RB1.

You can't bench one of the best receivers in the game, but this is not exactly a smash spot for Diggs. The Jets allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season. In two games against the Jets last season, Diggs put up stat lines of 5-93-0 and 3-37-0. The Jets have one of the best cover corners in the league in Sauce Gardner, and CBs D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II are no slouches. Diggs profiles as more of a lower-end WR1 than as a top WR option this week.

All the reasons to be sour on Stroud also apply to the Texans starting RB. Except the matchup might be even worse for Pierce because the Ravens' strengths are certainly in their front seven led by linebacker Roquan Smith. From Week 9 onward (after the Ravens acquired linebacker Roquan Smith), the Ravens were 3rd overall in defensive DVOA (9th in pass, 2nd in run) in 2022. This defense has injuries in their secondary, so that's the only way I can envision the Texans moving the ball successfully, especially with Baltimore offering a lackluster pass rush. I warned the masses about drafting Pierce too aggressively in redraft formats for this exact matchup, and I feel strongly that his value is going to dip dramatically after he inevitably busts in Week 1. Pierce needs to ride the pine in Week 1 as a 10-point road dogs.

Collins is WR1 in Houston and he owns a juicy matchup on deck vs. the Ravens' banged-up secondary in Week 1. With C.J. Stroud under center: Collins has posted a 35% target share this preseason. Considering the Ravens' lack of pass rush, I think Stroud will have enough time to deliver the ball to Collins in full-blown comeback mode versus sub-par cornerbacks. Low-end WR4/FLEX option in Week 1.

Schultz is the quintessential definition of a floor play at tight end. He will likely see plenty of volume running the majority of routes among Houston's tight ends. But the fact that he was constantly subbed out in red zone packages during the preseason, shy me away from his upside, especially with almost zero YAC to work with. To add more concerns, the Ravens' strengths are at linebacker and safety between Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams, Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith. Considering those will be Schultz's matchups in most coverage looks, I don't LOVE his chances of having a super productive game. Low-end fantasy TE1 option for Week 1.

It's still unclear where Dell sits on the Texans depth chart with Robert Woods and Noah Brown seeing plenty of snaps with the starters during the preseason. It's just a matter of time until Dell usurps those players, but I doubt we see it off the bat in Week 1.