Fantasy Football Player Notes

Hunt is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 21st in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and sixth in red zone touches. He has averaged 21.5 touches and 89 total yards this season. Hunt should retain the lion's share of the workload this week, even with Isiah Pacheco returning. I expect we'll see Pacheco get a handful of touches and snaps this week, as the team will likely ease him back in. This hurts Hunt's ceiling, but his floor for Week 13 is still high. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 50th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. The volume has been integral to Hunt's fantasy value, so I can't pretend that his value doesn't take somewhat of a hit this week and moving forward, especially with the Raiders' run defense improving. Since Week 7, Las Vegas has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Pacheco will be active this week, but we shouldn't expect more than a handful of snaps and carries this week. Against what has been an improved Raiders run defense, Pacheco isn't flex-worthy this week. Since Week 7, Las Vegas has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Travis Kelce had six catches for 62 yards last week in Kansas City's win in Carolina. Kelce has reached each of those thresholds in six of his last eight games. He gets a fantastic Week 13 matchup when the Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Kelce scored 20 fantasy points in the Week 8 meeting in Vegas and is poised to have another big day this time around.

Kansas City has continued to water down Hopkins usage as they are utilizing a full-blown committee behind Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce. Last week, Hopkins had a 44.7% route share, which ranked sixth on the team as he drew a 16.2% target share and 22.7% first-read share with two end zone targets, 1.67 YPRR (35 receiving yards), and a 23.8% air-yard share. This type of usage is nightmare fuel. When he's on the field, Hopkins is being targeted at strong rates, but the dwindling number of routes weekly is concerning that floor could drop out any week. This week against a middle-of-the-road secondary that has allowed the 17th-highest PPR points per target since Week 7 against perimeter wide receivers, Hopkins is a volatile flex play.

Since the Chiefs acquired DeAndre Hopkins, Worthy's route share has never dipped below 64.3%. In his five games with Hopkins, Worthy has played the field stretching role for two games, but in three games his role has been fairly consistent (Weeks 8, 11, & 12). In those games, Worthy has had a 10.3 aDOT, a 17.6% target share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 24.6% first-read share. In those games, (one of which was against Las Vegas), Worthy has seen three red zone targets. Worthy is just a middling flex play this week against a secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the 17th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.