Fantasy Football Player Notes

The world is back to normal, as Jacobs found the endzone for the first time since Week 10. After scoring 11 touchdowns in his first 10 games, it had become something fantasy managers could rely on each week. We also saw Jacobs play more snaps than he did in Week 13 when he was coming off his injury, which is a good sign. Unfortunately, the Packers go from a huge divisional win against the Bears to taking on the 11-2 Broncos. Riding their defense to 11 wins has not been a fluke. This defense has stifled some of the league's best offenses this season and has held RBs to the fewest fantasy points over the last five weeks. Averaging only 61 rushing yards to RBs over that span, it may be a tough day at the office for one of the league's most consistent backs.

Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs will see the Patrick Surtain shadow treatment this week. Surtain has shadowed five times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, and Ja'Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, but none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards with Surtain following them. Since Week 10, Christian Watson has been the WR13 in fantasy points per game with a 21.6% target share, 61.8 receiving yards per game, 2.49 yards per route run, and a 28.4% first-read share. In those five games, Watson has had two red zone targets and 11 deep targets. Since Week 8, Denver has utilized two high at the ninth-highest rate (57.1%). Since Week 10, against two high, Watson has ranked second on the team with a 17.2% target share with 2.26 yards per route run (leads the team) and a 25.7% first-read share. If Surtain doesn't follow Watson, I expect him to see a bump in usage, but I lean that he'll be the one that Surtain follows. I'm worried about his outlook this week with Surtain on him. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also holding them to the 14th-fewest PPR points per target.

Last week, Reed stepped back into the lineup with a 65.4% route share, a 16% target share, 31 receiving yards, 1.82 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share (tied for the team lead). Reed didn't have a red zone or deep target. Denver hasn't been a wonderful matchup for slot receivers, but with Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs getting the Patrick Surtain shadow, Reed could be more heavily involved this week. Since Week 10, Denver has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs will see the Patrick Surtain shadow treatment this week. Surtain has shadowed five times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, and Ja'Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, but none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards with Surtain following them. Since Week 10, Doubs has had a 15.1% target share with 20.2 receiving yards per game with 0.96 yards per route run, and a 16% first-read share. In those five games, he has had four red zone targets and two deep targets. Since Week 8, Denver has utilized two high at the ninth-highest rate (57.1%). Since Week 10, against two high, Doubs has had a team-leading 18.8% target share with 1.73 yards per route run and a 17.1% first-read share. I lean that out of the two players, Watson is more likely to get the Surtain treatment this week. If I'm right, Doubs should see a bump in work. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also holding them to the 14th-fewest PPR points per target.