Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year was tough for Jacobs as he tried to follow up on his amazing 2022 season. He was limited to 13 games played and appeared to be running in slow motion when he was on the field. Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. With A.J. Dillon out and MarShawn Lloyd banged up, Jacobs could see an 80% snapshare (or higher) in Week 1 with only Emanuel Wilson fully healthy. The Eagles were a tough matchup for backs last year, but they allowed big plays on the ground. Philly allowed the fifth-highest adjusted yards before contact per attempt and the ninth-highest explosive run rate, but that's where the good times end. This run defense also held rushers in check with the eighth-lowest missed tackles, the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game. Jacobs is a volume play for Week 1.

Reed had a wonderful rookie campaign, finishing with ten total touchdowns (fifth-most) and being the WR26 in fantasy points per game. He saw a 17.6% target share with only a 69.6% route participation as the Packers utilize a healthy dose of 12 and 21 personnel, thus limiting his weekly snap rate as the team's starting slot receiver. He did rank 21st in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets while also receiving a smattering of rushing work. The Eagles defense will likely deploy heavy Cover 3 and Cover 6 usage this year after Vic Fangio dialed it up on 59.7% of the Dolphins' defensive snaps last year. Last season, in Weeks 5-13, against Cover 3 and Cover 6, Reed only saw a 9.3% target share and 11% first-read share and produced 1.55 yards per route run. While all of those numbers are concerning, it does help Reed's case that the Eagles were ripped to shreds by slot receivers last season, allowing the most receptions, the 13th-highest PPR points per target, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to the position. I'm skeptical of those numbers repeating in 2024 with the team shoring up nickel this offseason, with the team drafting Cooper DeJean while also bringing back C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

Doubs was the WR46 in fantasy points per game last year, which was influenced greatly by touchdowns. Last season, Doubs was fourth among wideouts in end zone target while also ranking seventh in receiving touchdowns (eight). His per-route efficiency metrics were not great by any stretch of the imagination. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he was 50th in target share, 57th in receiving yards per game, and 56th in yards per route run. Doubs, however, was one of Green Bay's go-to guys against Cover 3 and Cover 6, so there's some flex appeal hope for Week 1. The Eagles defense will likely deploy heavy Cover 3 and Cover 6 usage this year after Vic Fangio dialed it up on 59.7% of the Dolphins' defensive snaps last year. Last season, in Weeks 5-13, against Cover 3 and Cover 6, Doubs led the team with a 16.3% target share and a 19.5% first-read share while also sitting at second with a 32.9% air-yard share. He only produced 1.18 yards per route run, but if the volume is there this week, it might not matter much. Doubs will run about 84% of his routes against Darius Slay (64.3% catch rate and 84.3 passer rating) and rookie Quinyon Mitchell.

Wicks has gained hype and a hive following this offseason. I won't say it isn't deserved because he was ridiculous on a per-route basis last season. Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, he was 37th in target per route run rate, 17th in yards per route run, and 13th in first downs per route run. The problem for Wicks is that he still projects as a part-time player only and the WR4 on this depth chart. In Weeks 5-13 last season, with Watson healthy, Wicks was fourth on the team with only a 30.3% route per dropback rate. For what it's worth, Wicks was strong (in a VERY limited sample) against Cover 3 and Cover 6 (only 35 routes) with a 29% target per route run rate and 4.51 yards per route run. I wouldn't be trotting Wicks out in lineups in Week 1, as he might only run a handful of routes, but if you're in a DEEP league and need the flex upside, I get it. Wicks is still best viewed as a stash and not a flex play at this point.

The Packers' room is a mess until we see their in-season usage in 2024. Will they split routes and snaps this year? Will Musgrave reassume his clear starting role, or did Tucker Kraft do enough last year to eat into his playing or supplant him? With Kraft dealing with a torn pectoral this offseason, I doubt he will supplant him immediately, but I won't rule it out during the season. Musgrave gets a small boost this week as Tucker Kraft is dealing with a back issue (listed as questionable for the game). Last year, in Weeks 1-10, he was the TE22 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 31 qualifying tight ends, he was 21st in target share (13.0%), 15th in yards per route run (1.48), 19th in receiving yards per game (34.8), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.057). The matchup against Philly isn't great. Last year, they were 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. While they did give up the tenth-most receptions to the position, they also permitted the 12th-lowest yards per reception.

Last year, Kraft assumed the starting tight end role in Week 12 and was the TE12 in fantasy points per game for the final seven games of the season. During his tenure as the starter, among 37 qualifying tight ends, he was 21st in target share (14.2%), 19th in yards per route run (1.59), and 12th in receiving yards per game and first downs per route run. Last year, the Eagles were 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. While they did give up the tenth-most receptions to the position, they also permitted the 12th-lowest yards per reception. Kraft is a fine, deep league stash, but it's impossible to plug him into a lineup in Week 1. Kraft is dealing with a back issue after only getting in a limited practice session on Wednesday. He has been listed as questionable. This gives a boost to Luke Musgrave.