Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jacobs finished Week 1 as the RB25 in fantasy points per game, playing 73% of the snaps with 18 touches and 104 total yards. It's only one game, but Jacobs' tackle-breaking juice looks to have returned for the 2024 season. Among 34 qualifying backs, Jacobs ranks eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. While Malik Willis could hurt the overall efficiency of the offense, this could be a week for Green Bay to ride Jacobs and lean on their offensive line. Last week, Indy was steamrolled up front by Houston's offensive line, finishing with the third-lowest stuff rate and the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt. They still held Joe Mixon to the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, but Houston played bully ball on the ground. Green Bay could do the same. Last week, their offensive line was second in yards before contact per attempt and ranked 11th in run-blocking grade. Expect Green Bay to lean on Jacobs this week.

Reed had an insane performance in Week 1 as the WR1 for the week. On top of rolling up 138 receiving yards, he took a rushing attempt 33 yards for a score. Crazy sauce stuff. He had a 17.1% target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, 5.31 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share (second on the team). In Week 1, among 104 qualifying wide receivers, Reed ranked 42nd in separation and 49th in route win rate. Last week, Indy was second in the NFL in Cover 3 rate (52.6%). Last year, Reed ranked fourth on the team in separation and route win rate against Cover 3. Reed ran from the slot on 88.5% of his routes in Week 1. Last year, Indy allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target and the second-lowest receiving yards to slot receivers. Reed will have to deal with Kenny Moore (2023: 79.3% catch rate and 98.3 passer rating) all day. There's plenty of reasons to consider sitting Reed this week related to the quarterback play, but considering the matchup as well, it just adds even more on top of that vibe. Reed has been listed as questionable (calf, shin) after being downgraded to a limited practice on Friday. He logged full sessions on Wednesday and Thursday.

Downgrade the entire passing attack for Green Bay until Jordan Love is back under center. Last week, Watson had a 65% route run rate with a 14.3% target share, a 21.4% air-yard share, and a 16.7% first-read share (second on the team). Watson led the team with three end-zone targets. He snagged one of them for a score as the WR39 in fantasy last week. Last week, Indy was second in the NFL in Cover 3 rate (52.6%). Last year, Watson led Green Bay in separation and route win rate against Cover 3. Among 92 qualifying receivers last year, Watson ranked 21st in separation against Cover 3. Watson could lead the way this week. Watson will run about 61% of his routes against Dallis Flowers (61.1% catch rate and 98.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating).

Doubs had a 20% target share, a 23.1% air-yard share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 29.2% first-read share in Week 1. Despite the heavy usage, he was the WR48 for the week. Last week, Indy was second in the NFL in Cover 3 rate (52.6%). Last year, Doubs was third among Green Bay's top four wideouts (Watson, Doubs, Reed, & Wicks) in separation and route win rate against Cover 3. He did lead the group in TPRR (24%) against Cover 3, so it could be another heavy usage week without much to show for it for Doubs. Doubs will run about 93% of his routes against Dallis Flowers (61.1% catch rate and 98.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating).

I have always been a proud card-carrying member of the Tucker Kraft hive. Despite this, it surprised me that Kraft was Green Bay's clear starter at tight end in Week 1. He had a 56.8% route run rate, an 8.6% target share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 4.2% first-read share. He entered the game banged up, which could also account for the route run rate not being higher. Kraft is a dart throw only, though, this week with Malik Willis under center. The entire passing attack is in question. This is a good matchup for Kraft, though, if Willis can somehow provide competent quarterback play. Last year, Indy allowed the 10th-most receiving yards and fantasy points to tight ends.

Last week, Wicks only had a 37.8% route run rate. That's not enough routes per game to consider him in fantasy weekly. Now add on top that Malik Willis will be under center, and there's no way anyone can plug Wicks into a fantasy lineup for Week 2.