Fantasy Football Player Notes

There are two ways to look at last week's performance by Jacobs. The first is that he faced the Broncos defense, and managed his third-highest fantasy points of the season. However, it was a rollercoaster to get there. Not only was he questionable to play up until Sunday morning, but he also played his second fewest snaps of the season. On top of this, he had his fewest rushing attempts in a full game all season, which is likely an outcome of not being fully healthy. Since this knee injury has been lingering, it is fair to assume he won't be fully healthy for the rest of the season. Despite playing his lowest snaps and receiving his fewest rush attempts in a game, he came through with his longest rushing touchdown of the season (40 yards) and his first receiving touchdown of the season. Together, it was clear that the fantasy gods were smiling down on Jacobs' managers last week. As a result, he is still a must-play in Week 16 against the Bears, but managers would like to see his usage increase to feel confident trusting him as an RB1.

Christian Watson opened the week with a DNP before logging limited practices on Thursday and Friday. Watson has been listed as questionable (chest/shoulder). He didn't wear a non-contact jersey in practice this week, so that's encouraging for his outlook this week but his injury and playing time are a definite mystery. I could see Watson playing a full time role this week or seeing a 50-60% route share. Neither would shock me. It makes Watson a volatile proposition for fantasy football. With his speed and big play potential, he could play limited snaps and still pay off for fantasy. Since Week 11, Watson has been the WR15 in fantasy points per game with a 21.7% target share with 58.6 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 30.9% first-read share. He has had three red zone targets and ten deep targets in those five games. Since Week 13, Chicago has had the tenth-highest rate of man coverage (32.4%) and the 11th-highest rate of two high (52.9%). Since Week 11, against man coverage, Watson had led the team with a 26.2% target share, 2.46 yards per route run, and a 31.6% first-read share. Since Week 11, against two high, Watson had led the team with an 18.3% target share, 2.41 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. Watson should lead the way for the Packers' passing attack this week if he's healthy enough to do so. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. It's a tough matchup for Watson, but he has the talent to overcome it.

Last week, Jayden Reed's route share increased to 67.4%. I think he should at least see this type of workload this week, but it could continue to increase this week, and it wouldn't shock me at all. Since Week 14, Reed has had a 21% target per route run rate with 43 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19.4% first-read share. In those two games, Reed has one red zone target and zero deep targets. Reed is a strong flex this week that could produce WR2/3 numbers. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Romeo Doubs' role in the offense could be dramatically altered if Christian Watson isn't able to play this week. I'll update Doubs' outlook for Week 16 on Friday when we hopefully know more about Watson's outlook for Week 16.

In Emanuel Wilson's one start this season, he had 30 touches, 125 total yards, and two scores as the RB3 for the week. Wilson played 56.1% of the snaps in that game. If Josh Jacobs is out this week, I expect him to be the team's workhorse and a plug-and-play RB2. Among 58 qualifying backs, Wilson ranks 54th in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Wilson has a nice matchup against a Bears' run defense that, since Week 11, has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest rushing success rate, and the second-most yards before contact per attempt.