Fantasy Football Player Notes

Chase’s availability and snapshare are up in the air for Week 1. I do think it’s pretty easy regarding Chase, though. If he is active he is in your lineup. Chase has the talent to blow up even with limited snaps. Cincinnati could also easily limit his snaps by cutting back his snaps on run plays, and it wouldn’t hurt his pass game availability, which is all we care about for fantasy purposes. Last year, when Joe Burrow was healthy (Weeks 5-10), Chase was awesome. He had a 28.4% target share, a 43.1% air-yard share, and a 34.5% first-read share. During that small sample, he produced a mouthwatering 2.69 YPRR and 0.145 FD/RR. Last year, New England was seventh in single high rate (59.7%). The last time we got a full season of Chase and Burrow ripping the league up (2022), Chase was a monster against single-high. Among 88 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked fourth in target share (32.3%), fifth in air-yard share (442.%), seventh in YPRR (3.12), and third in FD/RR (0.159). Chase will match up with Christian Gonzalez (66.7% catch rate and 67.5 passer rating) and Jonathan Jones (57.4% catch rate and 86.0 passer rating) all day. With Higgins being listed as doubtful, Chase could be leaned on heavily when he’s on the field, even if his snaps are limited.

If the camp reports are right, Moss should open the season immediately, splitting work with Chase Brown. That's not the hope for anyone who drafted him this summer, but it's likely the reality. Last year, in the seven games he played at least 50% of the snaps, he finished with 21.1 touches and 98.5 total yards per game. Overall, he ranked 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt last year. Cincy could lean into their passing game this week with what projects to be a tough matchup on the ground. Last season, New England allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and the LOWEST missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. I wouldn't trust Moss as an RB2 in my lineups but rather as a middling flex play.

Brown should be heavily involved this season after working as a breather back last year. Last season, Brown was impressive on a per-touch basis, although the sample size is pretty limited (44 carries). Among 77 backs with at least 40 carries, Brown ranked 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt. The rushing matchup is tough for Brown, but he could exploit the Pats through the air. Last season, New England allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and the LOWEST missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. The Pats did give up the ninth-most receptions and the 13th-most receiving yards to backs last season. Among 67 qualifying backs last year, Brown ranked first in YPRR and FD/RR. Brown is flex-worthy in Week 1.

Iosivas will open this year as the Bengals’ starting slot and WR3. Iosivas flashed late last year when called upon to step into a starting role. In Weeks 16 and 18, Iosivas played at least 70% of snaps while drawing a 21.4% target share, a 35.5% air-yard share, and a 19.2% first-read share. He produced an eye-popping 0.121 FD/RR. It’s a very small sample, but it had to be mentioned. Last year, New England was seventh in single high rate (59.7%). Last season against single-high, Iosivas had a 22% TPRR and only 1.09 YPRR. Iosivas could be moved from the slot to the perimeter if Higgins is out or limited which at this point looks likely. If that comes to fruition, he’ll line up against Christian Gonzalez (66.7% catch rate and 67.5 passer rating) and Jonathan Jones (57.4% catch rate and 86.0 passer rating) for most of the game. Iosivas is a decent flex play in Week 1.