Fantasy Football Player Notes

Achane was lightning in a bottle last year. He was the RB5 in fantasy points per game. In the eight games he played at least 41% of the snaps, Achane averaged 14.2 touches and 113.8 total yards. Every time he touched the ball, he had the chance to take it to the house, ranking first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Achane should lead the way for Miami's rushing attack with his zone and gap run game usage. Jacksonville wasn't a strong run defense overall, as they allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the ninth-most rushing touchdowns while sitting with the 14th-highest missed tackle rate. They did, however, defend zone runs well, holding them to the fourth-lowest success rate and yards per carry. Achane's runs were almost even between zone and gap (47.6% vs. 42.7%), whereas Mostert's usage was zone-heavy. Achane had the ninth-highest yards per carry and the fourth-highest success rate with gap runs. Jacksonville allowed the 12th-most rushing yards and the sixth-highest yards per carry to gap runs last season. Achane should rip off some big gains in Week 1 on the way to a superb day.

Waddle had the worst season of his short career last year, finishing as the WR21 in fantasy. Waddle ranked fifth in yards per route run and sixth in first downs per route run last season, with a 22% target share and a 29.7% air-yard share. With Jacksonville's new defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, I expect this secondary to lean into two-high coverage. Last year, he led a Falcon's defense that was ninth in two high usage (53.2%). Last season, in the 12 games Waddle played at least 54% of the snaps, he saw a 23.6% target share, a 31.5% air-yard share, and a 25% first-read share, producing 2.90 YPRR against two high. Waddle will run about 74% of his routes against Ronald Darby (51.7% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating) and Tyson Campbell (70% catch rate and 127.4 passer rating).

Mostert defied the laws of aging running backs last year as the RB4 in fantasy with 21 total touchdowns. He was still a wizard on a per-touch basis, ranking sixth in explosive run rate and 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt. On paper, this looks like a game where Achane could take the lead for the backfield, though. Jacksonville was an exploitable run defense last year, allowing the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the ninth-most rushing touchdowns while sitting with the 14th-highest missed tackle rate. The problem for Mostert is that they were strong against zone rushing, which accounted for 64.6% of his rushing attempts. Against zone Jacksonville, they allowed the fourth-lowest success rate and yards per carry. Mostert could break a big play at any time, but the odds are lower in Week 1.

Smith could walk out of Week 1 with a TE1-worthy stat line. He was a target of mine in the later rounds of plenty of best-ball drafts this offseason. Last year, among 43 qualifying tight ends, he was 17th in receiving yards per game, 11th in yards per route run, and fifth in missed tackles forced per reception. He could be the WR3 for Tua Tagovailoa this year. He faces a Jacksonville defense that gave up the fifth-most fantasy points per game, the highest yards per reception, and the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends last year. If you need a tight-end streamer for Week 1, Smith makes a ton of sense.