Is Addison Russell ready to cash in on his potential this season?
For an MLB hitter to be effective, he has to make contact with the baseball. While having a good eye can mitigate some contact woes via the base on balls, there is nothing that can replace the hand-eye coordination it takes to hit the ball into the field of play. Without this ability, there is little chance of carving out a successful MLB career.
An average big league hitter has the ability to contact the ball about 75% of the time, while the most elite hitters make contact around 90% of the time. Hackers tend to languish around the 70% mark.
More contact means more balls in play, which ends up increasing the chances of having productive at-bats. Likewise, less contact mean more strikeouts and less fantasy production. Analyzing players’ contact rates from 2015 to 2016 (min. qualified AB, n=88), the top and bottom 15 players with regard to changes in contact rate are listed below.
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| Player | Delta | 2016 Contact% |
| Kris Bryant | 7.00 | 73.3% |
| DJ LeMahieu | 5.00 | 90.2% |
| Brett Gardner | 4.60 | 85.9% |
| Wilson Ramos | 4.40 | 81.9% |
| Bryce Harper | 3.80 | 79.2% |
| Joey Votto | 3.80 | 82.9% |
| Didi Gregorius | 3.40 | 82.9% |
| Addison Russell | 2.40 | 73.7% |
| Kole Calhoun | 2.40 | 76.3% |
| Matt Carpenter | 2.40 | 82.6% |
| Nolan Arenado | 2.00 | 82.3% |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 2.00 | 81.1% |
| Brandon Belt | 1.90 | 76.3% |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.70 | 79.4% |
| Joe Mauer | 1.60 | 86.2% |
| Adam Jones | -2.70 | 75.1% |
| Mitch Moreland | -2.80 | 73.4% |
| Chase Headley | -3.00 | 77.0% |
| Evan Longoria | -3.00 | 75.4% |
| Daniel Murphy | -3.10 | 88.8% |
| Todd Frazier | -3.20 | 73.3% |
| Alcides Escobar | -3.50 | 80.3% |
| Jose Altuve | -3.70 | 86.1% |
| Ian Kinsler | -3.80 | 85.2% |
| Logan Forsythe | -4.00 | 79.4% |
| Starlin Castro | -4.10 | 78.2% |
| Salvador Perez | -4.20 | 79.0% |
| Manny Machado | -4.60 | 79.7% |
| Eric Hosmer | -5.30 | 75.4% |
| Russell Martin | -7.30 | 72.2% |
CONTACT RATE RISERS
Kris Bryant (3B – CHC): ADP 3
Bryant, according to NFBC data, is currently the third player off the board on average heading into 2017. However, in terms of first-round hitters, Bryant ranks last among the top 15 hitters off the board this season:
| Player | Contact% |
| Betts | 87.3% |
| Altuve | 86.1% |
| Blackmon | 84.5% |
| Arenado | 82.3% |
| Rizzo | 82.3% |
| Trout | 81.3% |
| Machado | 79.7% |
| Goldschmidt | 79.4% |
| Harper | 79.2% |
| Cabrera | 79.1% |
| Seager | 78.4% |
| Turner | 77.5% |
| Correa | 76.8% |
| Donaldson | 76.7% |
| Bryant | 73.3% |
| AVG | 80.3% |
With a surge in contact rate from his rookie season putting him at the top of the 2016 risers, Bryant is moving in the direction. He still falls below the 75% threshold one would like to see as a minimum for an elite hitter taken in the first round. A 10.6% jump in O-Contact%—which is the amount of contact a batter makes with the ball outside the strike zone—means that Bryant is beginning to figure out how to cover previous holes in his swing (as evidenced by his 8.5% decrease in strikeouts). He also tinkered with his swing last offseason to a flatter, less downward plane through the zone. If 2017 sees even incremental improvement in contact rate, then Bryant’s stock could rise even further.
D.J. LeMahieu (2B – COL): ADP 86
So many things trended up for LeMahieu in 2016, including contact rate, walk rate, and groundball rate. He did not make any mechanical changes to his swing, but he got physically stronger and refined his approach at the plate. His ADP has surged more than 60 places this season as a result, and I don’t see copious amounts of value to be had here. Expect a return back to single-digit HR with more stolen bases as pitchers adjust their approach. For my money, I’d look at Joe Panik (ADP 320) for someone who offers a similar, high contact/high BA profile. The counting stats may not be as high, but the potential return on investment is greater.
Brett Gardner (OF – NYY): ADP 281
At age 33, no one is under the delusion that Gardner is about to have a resurgence. However, one area that has regressed back to his career norm is his usual elite contact rate (87% career). More walks, less strikeouts, and four seasons of at least 600 PA means there is still hope for a productive fantasy season. Single-digit HR is a virtual lock, but a high-contact, high-OBP approach at the top of an improved Yankees lineup portends to fantasy relevance. At pick 281, there is a good chance Gardner nets positive value this season.
Addison Russell (SS – CHC): ADP 135
Incremental improvements to his contact rate coupled with a 6% decrease in his strikeout rate have Russell trending in the right direction. Specifically, Russell improved on pitches outside of the zone (O-Contact%) at a 9.5% clip due to various mechanical tweaks since his rookie season. Couple improving contact with a walk rate more in line with his minor league numbers (along with a slightly low .277 BABIP), and there are the makings for another step forward in 2017.
Just for fun, let’s look at Player A and Player B in 2016:
| Player | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| A | 153 | 660 | 20 | 76 | 96 | 13 | 11.40% | 21.10% | 0.177 | 0.328 | 0.274 | 0.361 | 0.451 | 0.349 |
| B | 151 | 598 | 21 | 67 | 95 | 5 | 9.20% | 22.60% | 0.179 | 0.277 | 0.238 | 0.321 | 0.417 | 0.316 |
Player A is Carlos Correa (ADP 17) and the other is obviously Russell. With Russell’s pedigree, fantasy managers should invest before he fully cashes in on his talent this season.
CONTACT RATE FALLERS
Russell Martin (C – TOR): ADP 168
Catcher is one of the most brutal positions in fantasy heading into 2017, so there’s something to be said for Martin’s 20 HR the past two seasons to go along with decent counting stats. After all, what more could you want from a backstop. Unfortunately, a plummeting contact rate (worst among qualified hitters) along with a nearly 7% increase in strikeout rate should give one pause, though much of his struggles could be confined to a horrendous April and September.
He is still being drafted as the 10th overall catcher, and there’s something to be said for hitting at the Rogers Centre, but Martin could struggle to be a Mendoza-line hitter this season. While the walk rate will mitigate some of the risk, when the cliff comes, it could be a precipitous fall for the veteran. For my money, I’d rather gamble on Steven Vogt (ADP 209, 84% contact rate) and let someone else take the risk with Martin.
Eric Hosmer (1B – KC): ADP 104
The unassuming fantasy manager will look at career highs in HR (25), RBI (104) and six seasons of at least 540 PA and consider Hosmer to be a top-10 lock at 1B. However, Hosmer’s contact rate nose-dived along with a steep increase in GB%. While it’s fair to note that KC’s contact rate as a team faired worse in 2016 (see also Salvador Perez on the list above), it’s still a troubling trend for the 27-year-old. It looks like the days of double-digit steals are over, and the ground ball rate will limit his HR upside. Brandon Belt (ADP 165) — a contact rate riser — is making more contact and can put up similar numbers this season.
Todd Frazier (3B – CHW): ADP 74
Career high in HR (40)? Check. Career high walk rate (9.6%)? Check. Runs (89)? Yes. RBI (98). Check. Can he steal bases? Sure (15 in 2016). So, what’s the problem? His contact rate was a career low 73.3% while he struck out at a career clip (24.5%). There is a lot of production there despite the contact woes, but combine that with a rising GB%, falling hard contact rate (from 37% to 31%), and nearly 20% HR/FB rate (career 15%) and regression is sure to follow in 2017. At age 31, the contact rate could continue to decline, and Frazier will struggle to hit much above the Mendoza line. If you can stomach that, then, by all means, pay the peak price. Otherwise, for a similar player with contact issues, you can buy Jake Lamb (ADP 147, 29 HR/6 SB in 2016) much later.
Here’s a look at using batted ball stats in fantasy baseball
Contact rate never tells the whole story, but it does give astute fantasy managers a way to identify underlying mechanics that could impact fantasy production beyond surface counting stats. There is little evidence to suggest that a rising or falling contact rate can predict a trend either way. However, it is wise to look at a player’s context (age, walk rate, strikeout rate) around contact rate variance to decide if a player is worth investing before you draft your team this season.
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Joseph Pytleski is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joseph, check out his archive and follow him @shoelessjoep.
