The term bust has a different connotation that varies from one fantasy site to the next, with some analysts referring to a bust as someone that completely misses projections, leaving fantasy owners hanging out to dry. While other fantasy writers, like myself, define a bust as someone ranked inside the top 75 that will fail to live up to their current ADP and ECR rating.
By my definition, a bust can still pay fantasy dividends for their owners and will likely have fantasy value in even the smallest of formats. But owners who draft these players expecting a level of performance based on the amount of draft capital required procure them, may be disappointed at the end of the season. For various reasons, including age concerns, changing teams, and underlying peripheral stats, the four players listed below may not live up to their current ADP and could be considered busts.
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Freddie Freeman (1B – ATL)
A career-best 34 home runs and 102 runs scored by Freeman has the former second-round selection in the 2007 amateur draft slotted as a late second to early third round pick in most fantasy drafts. Who wouldn’t want to own a seven-year veteran who looks to be coming into his own on the diamond, with power numbers finally coming around to match a .300 batting average?
Personally, I wouldn’t want to use the 24th pick on a player who nearly doubled his home run production from the previous season based on what appears to be an outlier increase in fly ball rate. Freeman is a line drive hitter with a career fly ball rate of 35%, yet in 2016, he suddenly increased that to 40.5%. Also, his hard-hit rate jumped nearly 6% during that time from his career norm, leading me to believe 2016 was somewhat of a mirage and a negative regression to the mean is due.
Another red flag on Freeman is his .370 BABIP, which is well above league average and played a significant role in him batting .302 instead of his career average of .288. It is likely that Freeman’s BABIP could drop closer to the .320 range, which would, in turn, return him closer to the career .280 hitter he has proven to be over the years.
From a pure baseball perspective, I like Freeman, and I think the Braves are heading in the right direction by acquiring a collection of young talent. But from a fantasy perspective, Freeman’s production from last year looks like it will be difficult to replicate and his 24th overall ECR is hard to justify.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B – CLE)
Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60 million free-agent deal with the Indians over the offseason after seven highly productive seasons in Toronto. The 34-year-old native of La Romana, Dominican Republic averaged an impressive 38 home runs and 110 RBIs over his final five seasons with the Blue Jays, including a career-best 42 home runs in 2016.
Despite being a proven run producer in one of the most potent offenses in the American League, the Blue Jays were unable to keep Encarnacion from moving to another AL team with a similarly potent offense. Like all aging sluggers, the question of when will father time catch up with Encarnacion is front and center. For some power hitters, the drop off is slow, while others see a significant dip in their production come at an accelerated rate.
A change to a new team can also have an adverse effect on a player, especially when that player is looking to live up to a newly signed lucrative contract. It also doesn’t help him moving from the fourth best home ballpark for hitters to the 22nd for right-handed hitters according to an article by ESPN Senior Writer Tristan H. Cockroft.
Encarnacion is a proven stud that will have close to a 100% ownership rate in all leagues. It would not surprise me if he drove in 100 runs and hit 30 home runs, but I would be surprised if he can come close to matching his 99/42/127 line from 2016 and live up to his current ECR ranking of 25th overall.
Buster Posey (C/1B – SF)
I must admit that as a lifelong Giants fan who grew up loving Will Clark and Kevin Mitchell, I have made it a point to own Buster Posey, regardless of cost, in most fantasy baseball leagues over the years. Each year I pay a premium to get my favorite baseball player, only to be somewhat disappointed by the fact that at the end of the season, Buster did not give me anywhere near the return on my top 50 investment that I paid in the draft.
Posey is clearly on a power decline after posting career full-season lows in home runs (14) and a sub-800 OPS. His 80 runs batted in were well off the 103 he drove in during his MVP season in 2012, while his ground ball to fly ball rate was the highest since 2011.
If he can put together five more productive seasons, Posey is likely destined to be enshrined in Cooperstown when he hangs up his cleats. But that doesn’t mean he’s a top tier fantasy player, and owners need to stop drafting him higher than is production deserves.
Of course, Posey’s top 50 ADP is based on the fact that he is primarily drafted as a catcher and not a first baseman, and his high draft stock is an indictment on the overall shallowness of the position. I would still argue that even if Posey was only considered a catcher and did not have first base eligibility, he is still going too high in drafts based on the fact that he doesn’t produce enough offense to justify passing on other players in rounds four and five.
Wil Myers (1B – SD)
Myers came just two home runs and two stolen bases short of becoming the first 30/30 player since Mike Trout in 2012, and the first 1B since Jeff Bagwell in 1999. His breakout performance and mid-100 ADP made him one of the best steals of 2016.
As expected, Myers’ breakout campaign in 2016 translated to a top 50 ECR ranking in mixed drafts this season, making him nowhere near the value he was last year when compared to other players going around the fifth rounds in drafts, like Yoenis Cespedes, Stephen Strasburg, and Yu Darvish. After a strong start to the season, Myers managed to hit only nine of his 28 home runs after the all-star break, with a disappointing sub-400 slugging percentage.
His 23.7% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate, .305 BABIP suggest that he is likely going to continue with his career .250 batting average, while the lack of lineup support in a poor hitter’s park makes the chance of repeating on driving in 94 runs a difficult task. I like Myers, and it is always tempting to have a duel-threat first baseman that can help in four of the five stat categories, but he is no longer a value at his current ADP, and I would rather use that draft equity on someone with fewer question marks.
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: 2B
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: 3B
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: SS
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: C
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: OF
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: SP
- Fantasy Baseball Busts: RP
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Andrew Swanson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @andyswansonESPN.
