Closer volatility is nothing new, and the idea of a ninth-inning sure thing is an oxymoron. Ninety-one pitchers earned a save last season and 40% of those earned double-digit saves. So, the margin for profit in the closer market is razor thin and so it’s no stretch to identify the following RP bust candidates for 2017.

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Wade Davis (CHC)
Even with Davis’ down year (for him) in 2016, he still ranks among the top 5 relievers in wins above replacement (WAR) and top 15 in K/9. He also ranks first in ERA (1.18), HR/9 (0.15), and second in stranding runners (87.4%). After his trade to the Cubs, Davis goes from an above average pitcher’s park to a moderately good hitter’s park but will do so with last year’s best defensive unit behind him.

On the other hand, Davis is coming off an injury-shortened season due to a forearm strain. His strikeout rate has decreased the last three seasons and his walk rate inched up, though he did have a career-high 48.6% ground ball rate in 2016. Davis has been fine so far this spring, so there’s reason to hope his injuries are behind him. There are plenty of options behind him if he falters: Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Carl Edwards are all high-upside arms that could be called upon in high-leverage situations. Based on his current 87 ADP and the crop of arms-in-waiting lurking behind him, he represents the most risk among the top 10 closers off the board this season.

Zach Britton (BAL)
When Britton winds up on a bust list, one has to wonder. It has nothing to do with his skill set because he gets an above-average amount of strikeouts, has elite-level control and ground ball tendencies, which makes him stingy giving up the long ball. So, what gives? When a pitcher is able to garner 47 saves, decrease his K-rate, increase his walk rate, cut his home run by two-thirds (0.13 HR/9) and BABIP by 70 points, strand almost 90% of runners on base, and boast a career-high 80% (!) ground ball rate, it begs the question: how can he do any better than that?

He will not have to in order to be a top 5–10 closer, but the odds are against him being able to repeat his 2016 dominance. However, one is going to pay top dollar to acquire his services this season. So, he’s not a pure “bust” per se, but you go into this investment knowing you have almost no chance of getting back what you put in. And by the way, Brad Brach was a top 20 reliever last season, so there are options if things happen to go south for Britton.

Seung-Hwan Oh (STL)
Again, this is no indictment on the pure stuff Oh possesses, but when you look at ADP differences from 2016–17, you’ll see that Oh tops the list. Along with Edwin Diaz, Oh represents the least experienced MLB closers selected in the top 10 (though Oh obviously has plenty of experience overseas). Why does Oh get the nod over Diaz. There are a few reasons:

First, Oh is 34 years old and the chance for injury increases with age. There’s just more mileage on his arm than the 22-year-old Diaz. Second, there are some decent options to call upon if needed in St. Louis. Both Brett Cecil (LHP) and Trevor Rosenthal (RHP) had good years last season, and if the later can recover a modicum of control, he could be a good fallback option for the Cardinals. Diaz, on the other hand, has a firm grip on the closer role at this point, as currently, Nick Vincent is probably the only real competition while setup man Steve Cishek recovers from offseason surgery. Finally, the Mariners, according to advanced metrics, are projected to have the most improved defense in the league in 2017, which can only serve to help Diaz’s cause.

St. Louis projects to field a slightly below league average defense again this season. STEAMER is a bit pessimistic on Oh, projecting his strikeout rate to dip under 10 and his ERA to bump almost a run and a half (from 1.92 to 3.20). The main issue, though, is that you are now going to pay a 6th round pick to have him close on your team. It’s asking a lot to figure he’ll top what he did in 2016, so again, the return on investment could easily dip into negative territory. (Diaz does come with some of the same caveats, but his youth, relative lack of competition, team defense, and elite K/9 rate mitigate some of the risk.)

Tony Watson (PIT)
When scanning the top 20 closers selected off the board, Watson’s name stands out as the consummate setup man. With 20 career saves to his name (15 last season), the southpaw has thrived as the Pirates’ lefty setup man since 2011. While he has no discernable splits, his strikeout rate is decidedly mediocre (7.71 K/9) in relation to other closers and his ERA from 2016 (3.06) belies how well he actually pitched (4.37 FIP). His home run rate spiked to 1.33 HR/9 (career 0.79) and he posted a career low BABIP (.232). With veteran righty Daniel Hudson signed to a 2 year/$11M contract and young lefty Felipe Rivero having a good spring, management could easily put Watson back into a role he’s more comfortable with … leaving you holding the bag, so to speak. Meanwhile, the veteran incumbent hasn’t acquitted himself well this spring, and his grasp on closer duties remains tenuous at best. The same could be said for 75 percent of the closers on the market, but Watson’s role seems particularly fluid and it’s difficult seeing him turn a profit at pick 147 this season.

• Fantasy Baseball Busts: 1B
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: 2B
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: 3B
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: SS
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: C
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: OF
• Fantasy Baseball Busts: SP

Joseph Pytleski is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joseph, check out his archive and follow him @shoelessjoep.

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