The end of April draws near, but there are still many months of baseball to be played. This early in the season, it’s still best to not put too much stock into 2017 statistics, but there are indicators of who is poised to improve upon 2016 and who has depreciated in value. Velocity readings stabilize very quickly, with strikeout and walk rates following, so those should be the preferred analysis performed in the early going.

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Rising in Value

• Michael Brantley (OF – CLE)
  Brantley’s .310/.385/.517 slash line on the season is almost identical to his 2014-15 years where he was one of the best offensive contributors in the league. He’s doing it with a little more swing-and-miss in his game (21.5% strikeout rate), but a 52.3% hard hit rate ranks sixth among qualified hitters. There’s been some element of luck to Brantley’s hot start with a .366 BABIP, but expect the five-category contributions to continue.

• Amir Garrett (SP – CIN)
  In 67.2 Triple-A innings last season, Garrett struck out 19.7% of batters and walked 11.3%. In 19.2 major league innings, he’s struck out 28.4% and walked 4.1%. Sample size be damned, he’s generating swinging strikes at a 12.9% rate, while throwing a healthy 52.8% of pitches in the strike zone. These numbers are very promising, and even with some regression towards his minor league rates, Garrett should be owned in all leagues.

• Matt Bush (RP – TEX)
  Sam Dyson made an appearance on the flip side of this column in week one, and Matt Bush is now poised to lead the Texas closer committee in his absence. He’s striking out an insane 42.3% of batters with a minuscule 3.9% walk rate this season. In 2016, he pitched to a 2.74 FIP with strong strikeout and walk rates, so this isn’t out of nowhere. Expect Bush to seize the full-time job.

• Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
  Perhaps even more promising than six HRs in Judge’s first 63 PAs this season is a 25.4% strikeout rate, down from 44.2% in his 2016 debut. He’s always going to strike out a lot, but as long as he can keep that rate under 30%, Judge’s power is going to play. Among batters with at least 30 ABs, he ranks 11th in average exit velocity at 93.4 mph.

• Jason Vargas (SP – KC)
  The 34-year-old Vargas wasn’t expected to be a relevant fantasy contributor in 2017, but he’s struck out 23 and walked two in 20.2 innings with a 0.44 ERA. Who knows how long he’ll keep it up with an 86.9 mph fastball, but a 13.4% swinging strike rate indicates there may be some skill to this odd breakout. Don’t expect Vargas to pitch like Clayton Kershaw all season, but his peripherals are very interesting.

Falling in Value

• Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL)
  Swanson has struggled mightily to the tune of .132/.157/.191 to open the season. There is some silver lining in his 90.5 mph exit velocity, though he’s not making much contact or walking. On Friday, Swanson was dropped to eight in the batting order, where he’ll have a hard time contributing runs or RBIs. It’s too early to declare 2017 a lost season, but he hasn’t looked like a good fantasy investment in redraft leagues.

• Hisashi Iwakuma (SP – SEA)
  Iwakuma’s dreadful start continued into Friday, when he gave up three earned runs on five hits and four walks to the Athletics over 5.1 innings. His fastball is approaching Jered Weaver territory, sitting at 85.9 mph – down from 88.2 mph in 2016. Iwakuma also hasn’t been throwing strikes, which is understandable given that he’s been hit hard, allowing six HRs over his first four starts.

• Jonathan Villar (2B/3B/SS – MIL)
  After a post-hype breakout in 2016, Villar was drafted in the first five rounds of most fantasy leagues. He’s slashing just .179/.229/.321 so far with a 37.1% strikeout rate and 6.0% walk rate. Villar does have three HRs and four SBs, flashing the power/speed combination that made him a coveted draft selection. However, his AVG and OBP are going to remain very low unless he can drastically cut that strikeout rate.

• Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP – LAD)
  With a 25.0% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate, Ryu’s peripherals have actually been very strong. However, he’s given up six HRs in 15.1 innings with an ERA sitting at 5.87. With how competitive the Dodgers’ rotation is, Ryu may be replaced very soon. The best thing for his value would be a trade to a team that could grant him more job security, but the clock is ticking on his time starting for the Dodgers.

• Francisco Rodriguez (RP – DET)
  K-Rod has already blown two saves and lost a game in his eight 2017 appearances. He’s giving up flyballs at a 55.6% rate, and dwindling fastball velocity leaves him with little margin for error. A 5.87 ERA isn’t going to last long at closer when Detroit has capable options in Justin Wilson and prospect Joe Jimenez. It’s unlikely that Rodriguez remains the Tigers’ closer through the end of the year.

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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.