Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at Detroit Lions Over/Under: 48.5

This game has one of the higher totals of the week at 48.5, making it an attractive play for fantasy players. Consider the fact that it’s in a dome and you don’t have to worry about weather or wind, it’s another positive. The Cardinals defense has a lot of moving parts, as they lost three of their better starters on defense – DT Calais Campbell, SS D.J. Swearinger, and FS Tony Jefferson. The draft pick of Budda Baker looks to be a good one, though, as he can play all over the field and should fill Swearinger’s shoes nicely. The Lions will be starting rookie Jarrad Davis at middle linebacker, which could make that an area of the field for Carson Palmer to attack.

QBs: This is one of the weeks where you should feel comfortable playing the inconsistent Palmer. He’s not really a tournament option, as he doesn’t have the upside that most think. Over the last six years he’s had just three games with more than 26 fantasy points in standard leagues. Still, he’s a solid cash-game play and should be looked at as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2. Most don’t realize that Matthew Stafford didn’t have a three-touchdown game after Week 6 of last year. In fact, he threw zero or one touchdown in seven of the last 10 games. This matchup isn’t as daunting as most because the Lions don’t have that alpha-dog at wide receiver who Patrick Peterson could shadow. They spread the ball around quite a bit, but if Tyrann Mathieu is back to being the player he was two years ago, you want no part of this defense. Stafford is just a QB2 in this matchup with limited upside. My guess is that you can find someone better to play for Week 1, like Palmer.

RBs: You’re going to play David Johnson everywhere you can, that’s a given. As bad as the Lions defense seemed last year, they didn’t allow a single running back to score more than 22 PPR points in a game. With that being said, the loss of DeAndre Levy looms large. Granted he missed a lot of last season, but they were much better in the games he played, not allowing a single running back to rush for more than 86 yards in those six games. In the games without him, both Jordan Howard and Eddie Lacy were able to eclipse the 100-yard mark. No other running back on the Cardinals is worth thinking about. Some may be scared to start Ameer Abdullah, but you shouldn’t be one of them. In his one full game last year, he totaled 17 touches for 120 yards and a touchdown. It was against the Colts, but if the preseason was any indication of how they intend to use him, he’s going to average more than 15 touches per game. There were just three starting running backs to average more than 3.75 yards per carry against them last year, but they have at least four new starters on defense. The loss of Campbell to the interior line cannot be understated. Abdullah should be looked at as an RB2 with all the touches he’ll get. Theo Riddick is a tad riskier, as he didn’t see much action in the preseason, recovering from surgery on both of his wrists. He’s just a risky flex play in PPR formats until we know he’ll see normal reps.

WRs: If I like Palmer, it’s only natural that I’d like his pass-catchers, right? Over the last two years, Larry Fitzgerald has started out hot. In the first five games of 2015 and 2016, Fitzgerald has averaged 9.1 targets, 6.6 receptions, 85.1 yards, and 1.1 touchdowns. That amounts to 15.0 standard points per game and 21.6 PPR points per game. He also didn’t have a single game with less than five receptions or 11.3 PPR points. The Lions will have Quandre Diggs against him in the slot – he’s a WR1 in this contest. John Brown appears to be healthy and over his quad injury that kept him out for a majority of the season. He’ll have a tougher matchup with Darius Slay, but Brown is one play away from finishing as a WR1/WR2, making him an interesting option inside the dome where he can turn on his burners. Still, we have to wonder if he’s 100 percent, so look at him as a high-risk/high-upside WR3. J.J. Nelson also fits this description, though he should be looked at as nothing more than a boom/bust WR5 option with a healthy Brown on the field. The Lions pass-catchers have a much more difficult matchup with Mathieu likely covering Golden Tate and Peterson covering Marvin Jones. Tate is a risky WR2 considering Mathieu looked himself in the preseason, and Jones is just a WR4 while seeing Peterson a majority of the time. If forced to pick one in a tournament, I’d go Jones, hoping the Cardinals don’t shadow him with Peterson. If he gets Justin Bethel, he’ll win that matchup. Kenny Golladay is nothing more than a touchdown-dependent punt play.

TEs: We haven’t heard much out of Jermaine Gresham this offseason, outside of him getting an extension through 2020 with the Cardinals. Still, he’s a starting tight end that’s going up against a Lions defense that has struggled with tight ends the last two years. They’ve allowed 22 touchdowns to them over the last two years, which is the second-most to only the Browns. You can’t insert Gresham with much confidence in any week, but he should be a TE2 at worst in this game. Eric Ebron is someone who is a bit underrated when he can stay on the field, which is not a given, including Week 1. He’s missed time this preseason with a hamstring injury, making him a risky proposition to trust in fantasy lineups. On top of that, he’ll go up against a Cardinals defense who didn’t allow any tight end to top 53 yards last season. If possible, sit Ebron to ensure he’s healthy. If he goes off, at least you’ll have confidence putting him in your lineup going forward (as mom says, always look at the positives).

Prediction: Cardinals 28, Lions 23

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-2.0) Over/Under: 50.5

There is just one game on the entire slate that has a higher total than this game’s 50.5 points. When you see a total over 50 points, it should pique your interest. While the Titans secondary has major question marks, it’s surprising this high of a total. The Raiders are an up-and-coming defense that can usually generate a solid pass-rush, though there were just three times they held opponents under 20 points last year. The Titans allowed more than 20 points in nine of their last 13 games, so maybe Vegas is onto something here.

QBs: Most don’t realize it, but Derek Carr threw the ball more than 38 times just four times in 2016, which is why he wasn’t super-high in my yearly rankings. With that being said, if he was playing the Titans every week, I’d start him as a QB1. The Titans are starting to rebuild their defense, but it’ll take time for them to learn each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Just one of the final 11 quarterbacks who played them in 2016 scored fewer than 18.7 DraftKings points and that was Alex Smith. He’s a plug-and-play QB1 in this matchup and makes for a great stack with his wide receivers in DFS. Marcus Mariota and the Titans offense looked lethargic throughout the preseason, but you should know by now to never take too much away from the preseason. With that being said, the Raiders didn’t allow a quarterback to throw for more than 288 yards over the final 11 games of 2016, and allowed just 15 passing touchdowns over that time. Just last year, Mariota threw for just 214 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions against them. His weapons are much better this time around, though two of them are returning from injuries. Mariota is a low-end QB1 for this game and one that I’d under-own in DFS despite the high total.

RBs: It’s not the week to use Marshawn Lynch if you’ve got options, as the Titans have been as good as anyone against the run over the last two years. Did you know that the Titans allowed just one running back to record more than 84 yards last year? They also allowed just six rushing touchdowns on the season. Not that Lynch can’t find the endzone (especially with the high total this game has), but you’re left high-and-dry if he doesn’t score, making him a touchdown-dependent RB2 this week. There’s no reason to take a chance on the other Raiders running backs until we see how they’re used to spell Lynch. Fire up DeMarco Murray as an RB1 in this matchup, as the Raiders allowed 11 running backs to top 15 PPR points against them last year. The 4.6 yards per carry and the 18 touchdowns they allowed to the position included some lackluster opponents, too. There were just two games all season in which they didn’t allow a touchdown to a running back. If Murray struggles due to age this year, it’ll be as the season goes on. Approach Derrick Henry as you did last year, a touchdown-reliant boom or bust flex option. The Titans say they’ll use him more – I want them to prove it before trusting him in fantasy lineups.

WRs: Some say Amari Cooper is a boom or bust option, and it’s hard to say that all but maybe 10 wide receivers in the league don’t fit that bill. Still, this is one of the weeks you’ll want Cooper in as many places as you can. He’ll matchup with Adoree Jackson a majority of the time, a rookie first-round pick who’s made some mental errors in the preseason, and that was when he wasn’t going against one of the best route-runners in the game. Cooper is a WR1 with massive potential. Michael Crabtree can be safely trotted out as a WR2 in lineups, as he’ll need a touchdown to live up to his price, but he’s shown plenty of times before that he’s the preferred redzone option in the offense. It is important to note, though, that he scored 15 touchdowns in his first 22 games as a Raider, but just two touchdowns over his last nine games. Seth Roberts has a solid matchup, but it’s hard to recommend him outside of a minimum priced flier in a tournament lineup. Corey Davis hasn’t been on the field yet, and though they say he’ll be out there for Week 1, he can’t be trusted as anything more than a WR4 in fantasy leagues until he shows us he’s healthy. I’d be more confident in Eric Decker, who missed time with an ankle injury and not a soft-tissue one like Davis. He’s still just a low-end WR3 considering his lack of time in the offense. As odd as it sounds, Rishard Matthews may be the best option at wide receiver this week. He and Mariota have built chemistry and he’s remained healthy, making him a high-upside WR4 against the Raiders. As much as I love Taywan Taylor, he’s not likely to see enough snaps to be relevant with the other three wideouts healthy.

TEs: The Raiders are next in line to take a shot on Jared Cook, though it hasn’t really worked out for other teams who’ve taken that path. It wouldn’t shock me to see a mix between Cook and Clive Walford at the start of the season. It’s a situation best avoided in fantasy. As for Delanie Walker, the hate seems to have gone too far with the additions of Davis and Decker. While those two will have a role, Walker isn’t going away. Over the last two seasons, he has seen 235 targets while hauling in 1,888 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s pretty good at the game of football. If there was one Titans pass catcher I’d bank on in this game, it’s probably him. Feel free to play him in both cash and tournament lineups, as well as a TE1 in season-long. The fact that Davis and Decker are dinged up definitely doesn’t hurt his projection against a Raiders team that allowed the fifth most yardage to tight ends in 2016.

Prediction: Raiders 27, Titans 24

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.0) at Washington Redskins Over/Under: 47.5

Another divisional game between two opponents who know each other very well. The Redskins won both meetings between the two teams, with scores of 27-20 in Week 6 and 27-22 in Week 14, yet are the underdogs while at home. Seeing a total of 47.5 indicates exactly what happened last year. The Redskins upgraded a few spots on defense, while the Eagles lost some important parts, like their run-stuffing defensive tackle Bennie Logan. If last year was any indication, the Eagles were much worse on the road (25.9 PPG allowed) than they were at home (15.5 PPG), making this game lean a bit towards the Redskins.

QBs: A lot of people are expecting a second-year leap from Carson Wentz, who threw just nine touchdowns over the final 12 games, including 13 interceptions. The additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith definitely don’t hurt, though it does hurt losing his safety blanket Jordan Matthews. The Redskins secondary held opposing quarterbacks to just one or zero touchdowns in 10 of their 16 games, but they did allow the seventh-most passing yards per game. Wentz is just a low-end QB2 in this game until he shows that he’s massively improved on his rookie campaign. Kirk Cousins is another guy with some new weapons around him, but the Eagles may not have the ammunition at cornerback to stop them like the Redskins do with Josh Norman. In two games against them last year, Cousins was eerily similar in both games, finishing with 263/2 and 232/2 in them. Consider him a high-end QB2 with upside in this contest. It does help his touchdown-scoring chances that they don’t have a very competent run game.

RBs: Raise your hand if you know the touch ratio taking place in the Eagles backfield this season. Now put your hand down, liars. After LeGarrette Blount looked finished during this preseason, the rumors started about him potentially getting the boot. While that was never likely, him sharing more carries is. Darren Sproles will be involved as he’s been in the past, and I’d think that even Wendell Smallwood has earned a small role to start the season. If you recall last year, even before Ryan Mathews got hurt, it was difficult to play him because he received less than 10 carries in six of the first nine games. He was a more complete back than Blount, too. In the two games against them last year, the Eagles backfield produced one performance that was more than 6.0 PPR points (Sproles in Week 14). Avoid this backfield if possible, but if forced to play one, go Sproles. It seems that Rob Kelley is the starter, though he’ll lose passing down work to Chris Thompson, and share some work with Samaje Perine. Considering the loss of Logan on the defensive line, Kelley deserves a look as an RB2 in this game. With Logan last year, Kelley totaled 63 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries against them. It’s likely he finds the goal-line here as well. Thompson is a solid low-risk flex play in PPR leagues, though he lacks game-changing upside. Perine should remain on benches until he earns the starting job.

WRs: If you drafted Alshon Jeffery, you’re likely stuck playing him, but you shouldn’t be excited about it. The Redskins have stated this offseason that they’ll allow Josh Norman to cover the opposing No. 1, which is precisely what Jeffery is. You should be happy if he scores more than 12 PPR points, so consider him a WR3 this week. Torrey Smith is going to be tough to play on a weekly basis, but this could be a matchup where he gets loose. While Jeffery is tangled with Norman, Smith gets the inconsistent Bashaud Breeland in coverage. Consider Smith a big-play threat who needs a touchdown to give you any shot at returning value – he’s a WR5. As for Nelson Agholor, you should make him prove it over a span of a few games before even considering him. With Josh Doctson seemingly injured all the time (missed the last two preseason games), Terrelle Pryor is going to get targeted quite a bit. He saw seven targets in limited preseason action, dropping three of them, but has a plus matchup in Week 1. He’ll match-up with recently acquired Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills the majority of the time. Darby (who he’ll see most of) is just 5-11 and Mills is exactly 6-0. In case you didn’t know, Pryor is 6-4 and 230 pounds. Considering his matchup, he’s a borderline WR1 in his Redskins debut. Jamison Crowder will likely match-up with new slot cornerback Patrick Robinson, who has been up and down throughout his career. Consider Crowder a solid WR3 in PPR formats. Before recommending Doctson, I want to see him play a full game first.

TEs: The loss of Jordan Matthews gave the biggest boost to Zach Ertz, making him a near must-start every week. In the two games Matthews missed last year, Ertz totaled 22 receptions for 218 yards and three touchdowns. Think about that for a minute – 28 percent of his receptions, 27 percent of his yards, and 75 percent of his touchdowns in 2016 came in the two games Matthews missed. The Redskins just happened to allow 1,100 yards to tight ends last year, but only allowed four touchdowns to them. We know Ertz isn’t a touchdown scorer, but still, he’s a high-end TE1 in this matchup. Start him if you’ve got him. If you drafted Jordan Reed, you’re playing him when he’s on the field, but this isn’t the greatest matchup for him. The Eagles didn’t allow a single tight end to score more than 13 PPR points last year. Over the two games the Redskins played against the Eagles last year, Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed totaled a combined four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. Take your chances elsewhere in DFS this week.

Prediction: Redskins 24, Eagles 23

Atlanta Falcons (-7.0) at Chicago Bears Over/Under: 49.5

The Falcons favored by seven points on the road is a lot, especially when you consider their opponent this week. I get it, the Bears won just three games last year, but did you know that all three of them were at home? They allowed just 21.8 points per game at home, compared to 28.1 on the road. The Bears defense and particularly the front-seven suffered a lot of injuries last year, but seem to be healthy coming into Week 1. The Falcons didn’t really have any big losses from their Super Bowl team last year (player-wise), and even get back a healthy Desmond Trufant, so there’s plenty of reasons to believe the Falcons should win big.

QBs: It’ll be interesting to see how new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian handles the offense, as Matt Ryan is someone who threw the ball at least 614 times in each of the four seasons before 2016 when he threw the ball just 534 times. Considering the weaknesses of the Bears defense (the secondary), you should expect a healthy dose of pass attempts. The issue with relying on a quarterback against the Bears last year was relying on them to keep the game close enough to warrant pass attempts. There were just two quarterbacks to throw the ball more than 37 times against them last season because of this. Ryan is a fail-proof QB1 in this matchup, though his ceiling is limited. You don’t want to play Mike Glennon in fantasy football. If the preseason told us anything, it’s that Mitch Trubisky will take over sooner than the Bears (particularly GM Ryan Pace) would’ve liked. Glennon was wildly inaccurate and had poor decision-making throughout, though he did look his best in the third preseason game.

RBs: There is no scenario where you wouldn’t use Devonta Freeman in season-long leagues, and you shouldn’t really avoid him in DFS this week, either. The Bears defense is better than people expect them to be, but Freeman will get work in a game that has a total of 49.5, one of the highest of the week. You shouldn’t be over-exposed to him or Tevin Coleman in DFS this week, though, simply because we have no clue about how Sarkisian will distribute the work. Freeman is a solid RB1, while Coleman is a flex-play. After beat writers hyped up Tarik Cohen stealing 8-10 touches per week from Jordan Howard, he saw just one touch in the preseason dress rehearsal. As of now, Howard should be locked in as an RB1, especially against the Falcons. During the 2016 season, if you were a running back who totaled 14 carries against the Falcons (eight running backs did this), you were a lock for at least 14 PPR points. In fact, just one of the eight running backs (Doug Martin) didn’t hit at least 17 PPR points. So you know, it took 17.5 points on average to finish as an RB1 in 2016. Howard should be locked into lineups.

WRs: Get Julio Jones in all of your lineups, log out, win. Seriously though, you’ll want to get Jones anywhere you can. The Bears cornerback duo of Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper shouldn’t scare anyone, and Amukamara is reportedly questionable for this game. Not just that, but the Bears also have a new free safety in Quintin Demps. That makes three new faces in the secondary, which means their communication won’t exactly be on the level of that between Ryan/Jones. He’s a can’t-miss elite WR1 play in this matchup. Taylor Gabriel is interesting, though I’d like him more if this game was on the turf in Atlanta. Consider him a boom/bust WR4/5 this week. Mohamed Sanu was better before Gabriel arrived, but he’ll have the toughest matchup in the slot against Bryce Callahan. He’s best avoided in fantasy leagues this week. Regardless of how you feel about Kevin White, he’s going to get targets, a lot of them. With the same coaching staff as last season, with Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith on the team, White saw 32 targets in just four games. He’s a strong WR4 play in this matchup because of the expected high-scoring nature and high target total. Kendall Wright didn’t play on the perimeter in the preseason, but that may change with the injury to Meredith. The Bears lack weapons, making Wright a solid minimum play in DFS. Just like White, he’ll be fed targets out of necessity, and Glennon targeted him a lot this preseason. You shouldn’t need to use him in season-long, but he’s not the worst option.

TEs: Similar to the duo of Freeman and Coleman, we don’t know how this offense will work now that Kyle Shanahan has left. Because of that, Austin Hooper should remain on fantasy benches until we know he’ll see a consistent five targets per week. The Bears were semi-tough on tight ends last year anyways, allowing just three tight ends to top 50 yards. He makes for an interesting tournament play in DFS, though. The Bears have seemed to land on Dion Sims as the starting tight end, but he’s also kept in to block the majority of time, as he did on 61 percent of his snaps in the preseason. One of the Bears tight ends is likely to score a touchdown against the Falcons who allowed the fifth-most points to tight ends last year, but figuring out if it’s Sims, Zach Miller, or Adam Shaheen is the problem. Avoid the situation until we have more clarity.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Bears 23