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Week 1 Primer: Analyzing All 15 Games (Fantasy Football)

Week 1 Primer: Analyzing All 15 Games (Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5) Over/Under: 39.5

This strikes me as very interesting, because I didn’t think the Texans would ever be favored by five points with Tom Savage as the starter. This game has another dynamic to it with all of the tragedy that has gone on in Houston, and while that won’t overcome talent, it can’t be overlooked, either. After allowing five of the first seven teams to score 27 or more against them, the Jaguars defense came together and didn’t allow a team to score more than 28 over the final nine games, including four teams to 21 points or less. The Jaguars added the top two free agents on the market in DT Calais Campbell and CB A.J. Bouye (who the Texans lost). The line on this game is what I would call… interesting.

QBs: We all know that Blake Bortles isn’t very good at this point, but the Jaguars aren’t asking him to be. They want him to just manage the game and not turn the ball over. Considering he was nearly benched, Bortles should be as careful as ever, not taking many chances. This matchup was already not a great one, so leave Bortles on the bench. In fact, the only way I see the Jaguars losing this game by more than a field goal is if Bortles gives it away. You also don’t want to be starting Tom Savage in fantasy leagues. I keep reminding people about this, but Savage has still yet to throw a touchdown on 92 career pass attempts in the regular season. This game will be a defensive battle.

RBs: Leonard Fournette will make his pro debut, but it just happens to be against one of the toughest defenses in football. They aren’t as daunting as they once were, but staring across at J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Jadaveon Clowney isn’t ever a good thing. Despite the tough matchup, Fournette is going to get a lot of work in this game. Because of that, he’s a volume RB2 in season-long leagues, but it’s probably wise to limit your exposure in DFS until he has a better matchup. It’s a similar situation on the other side of the field, as Lamar Miller will get a lot of work, but the Jaguars defensive front of Campbell, Abry Jones, and Malik Jackson isn’t run-friendly. In two games against a slightly lesser version of this defense last year, Miller totaled 37 carries for 146 yards (3.9 YPC) with one touchdown on the ground. He’s also just a volume-dependent RB2 in this matchup. The backup situation in Houston isn’t as clear as we’d like it to be, so don’t go and play D’Onta Foreman just yet.

WRs: It’s clear that Allen Robinson is frustrated with Bortles’ play and to know there’ll be less volume this year, it’s worrisome. The positive in this matchup is that Bouye is now on his sideline instead of on the other team. Robinson torched the Texans for 9/107/1 in their first matchup last year, but was held to just 2/15/0 when Bouye shadowed him in Week 15. With the volume coming down, Robinson won’t have as great of a ceiling, but don’t run from him in this matchup. He’s a solid WR2. There hasn’t been much buzz around Marqise Lee this offseason, despite his solid 2016 season. He did suffer a high-ankle sprain mid-August, which could linger for a bit, making him an avoid until we see him healthy and playing all the snaps. Allen Hurns seems to be the forgotten man in Jacksonville, though he would actually have the best matchup out of the slot. Still, he’s just a dart-throw in DFS. DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t played since Week 1 of the preseason while nursing a hand injury, but he’ll be fine to plug into lineups this week as a low-upside WR2. His matchup is brutal, as he’ll match-up with both Jalen Ramsey and Bouye, two of the better cornerbacks in all of football. While dealing with just Ramsey in two games last year, Hopkins totaled 13 catches for 131 yards (no touchdowns) on 30 (!) targets. Ramsey did have offseason core muscle surgery, so the hope for Hopkins owners is that he’s not yet 100 percent. There is no other wide receiver on the Texans you should consider in either DFS or season-long.

TEs: The Jaguars tight end situation is puzzling to say the least, as they didn’t sign one to replace Julius Thomas. It’s odd because Gary Barnidge is still out there on the market, but the Jaguars seem to be content with the combination of Marcedes Lewis and Ben Koyack. Yes, those are real football players. No, you should not be starting them in fantasy football. On the other side of the field, C.J. Fiedorowicz may be a solid streaming option against the Jaguars, who struggled down the stretch, allowing every tight end they played to score at least 11.3 PPR points in their final four games. The question is whether or not Savage will use Fiedorowicz will use him as a safety blanket like Brock Osweiler did. Considering the Texans will be without Will Fuller and Jaelen Strong this week, he should see targets by default. Consider him a high-end TE2 for this matchup.

Prediction: Jaguars 20, Texans 17

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) Over/Under: 41.5

There are a lot of question marks to this game, but the biggest one is – How the Colts will remain competitive without Andrew Luck? They made a trade over the weekend, acquiring Jacoby Brissett from the Patriots in exchange for Phillip Dorsett. He’s unlikely to play in this game due to the lack of knowledge of the offense, so we’ll approach it as if Scott Tolzien is going to start. If you’ve ever seen him throw a football, you understand why the Colts are now the underdogs in this game.

QBs: Don’t stop to even think about it, Scott Tolzien should be in exactly zero fantasy lineups. Someone will think they’re smarter than everyone else by playing him. Don’t be one of those people. As nice as the matchup is for Jared Goff, he’s just an option in 2QB leagues. With as good as he looked in the second preseason game, he looked equally as bad in the third preseason game. The Colts will be without their top cornerback Vontae Davis, which gives him an upgrade, but it’d be nice to see him produce in a bad matchup before trusting him.

RBs: There have been 10 games in which Frank Gore has taken the field without Andrew Luck in his time with the Colts. In those games, Gore has scored exactly one touchdown. He’ll also be without Ryan Kelly, the center of their offensive line and the best player on it. The Rams may also be without their best player on the defensive line, Aaron Donald. If Donald sits, consider Gore a solid volume RB2, because after all is said and done, the Rams won’t blow them out. If Donald plays, Gore becomes a very boring low-end RB2/flex-type option. Robert Turbin was handling the goal-line duties over the second half of last season, but it’s not likely there is a lot of them this game – he’s not an option. If you drafted Todd Gurley, you are crossing your fingers that it’s going to start to pay dividends right away. Playing the Colts was a treat for running backs last year, as they allowed 13 of 16 starting running backs to score 15.7 or more PPR points. They also lost their most experienced linebacker in D’Qwell Jackson this offseason. There is no backup running back to worry about, as Lance Dunbar started the season on the PUP list, so feel free to start Gurley everywhere.

WRs: Without Luck playing, it’s hard to put any of the Colts wide receivers in your lineup, and yes, that includes T.Y. Hilton. Over the last three years, Hilton has played in 10 games without Luck, and in those games, he’s averaged just 7.5 standard fantasy points per game, which would have been the WR43 last year. The Rams are not the greatest secondary in the league, but the lack of arm strength that Tolzien has doesn’t bode well for one of Hilton’s signature deep balls. Consider him a risky WR3 in this matchup. Donte Moncrief has been touchdown-dependent throughout his career, so he’s even riskier than Hilton. It’ll be interesting to see if they match up the bigger, more physical cornerback Trumaine Johnson with him and double-team Hilton with a safety. If that’s the case (think it is), Moncrief is nothing more than a WR4. Sammy Watkins goes from big-armed Tyrod Taylor to noodle-armed (I kid, kind of) Goff. The matchup doesn’t get much better than this, but you have to wonder how much they’ll ask Goff to pass this game. Watkins has appeal in every format, but don’t pretend he doesn’t come without risk. I’ll consider him a solid WR2 against the Vontae Davis-less Colts. The only other Rams wide receiver who has appeal in PPR leagues is Cooper Kupp, who seemed to be a favorite of Goff’s in the preseason. Still, he’s just a desperation WR4 option in his first NFL game. If you really want to get crazy, throw Tavon Austin in a tournament lineup. Let the roller coaster begin.

TEs: This one hurts a bit, as Jack Doyle was a favorite of mine throughout the preseason, saying he could be a TE1 for TE2 pricing. Without Luck, he lost a lot of his appeal, as part of the reason you should have loved him was because of Luck’s affinity to the tight end position. I mean, he made Coby Fleener a top-six tight end a couple years back. The positive is that Tolzien doesn’t need arm strength to get the ball to Doyle, making him a TE2 in fantasy leagues. It seems that Tyler Higbee may have been passed by rookie Gerald Everett already, but I wouldn’t bet on that just yet. It’s always a bad idea to bet on rookie tight ends, so combining that with the inconsistent Goff makes for a deadly combo. With that being said, you may want to take a shot on Everett in a tournament lineup, as the Colts allowed three 20-point PPR games to tight ends in 2016.

Prediction: Rams 20, Colts 16

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.0) Over/Under: 51.0

These two teams have a history against each other despite not being in the same division, as it seems to go back to the controversial play called the “Fail Mary” back in 2012. Including that game, they have played each other five times in the last five years. The Seahawks won three of those games, but the Packers have won the last two, including a 38-10 stomping in Week 14 of last season. In that game, Aaron Rodgers threw just 23 times, but completed 18 of them for 246 yards and three touchdowns. It’ll be interesting to see these teams in Week 1 with the entire offseason to prepare. The over/under suggests it’ll be of the higher-scoring variety.

QBs: It seems that Russell Wilson always starts the season slow for whatever reason, as he’s never topped 18 fantasy points in any of his five season-openers. That should change in 2017 against the Packers woeful secondary that allowed 31 passing touchdowns, the third-most in the NFL. The fact that Jermaine Kearse is out and Paul Richardson/Tyler Lockett are in should only help his projected totals, as Kearse wasn’t what you’d call efficient. Consider Wilson a solid QB1 against the Packers despite his early-season struggles throughout his career. This isn’t the matchup you wanted when you took Aaron Rodgers with one of your first three draft picks, but it’s not as bad as you’d think. Rodgers has gotten better seemingly every single time he’s played them over the last five years, as he avoids Richard Sherman as much as possible. He’s still a QB1, but you should avoid his high price-tag in DFS and find another option.

RBs: We still have no idea as to how the Packers intend to use their running backs, but as of now it’s fair to assume that Ty Montgomery will receive the bulk of the touches. Against the Seahawks, he shouldn’t be considered as anything more than a RB2 in season-long leagues, as they have one of the best front-seven in football. The area of hope, though, is that they allowed 41 or more receiving yards to three of the last four running backs they played in 2016, including Montgomery. Jamaal Williams should be left on fantasy benches for the time being and don’t think he’s even worth a shot in DFS lineups as a flier just yet. You have Eddie Lacy returning to Green Bay to play his former team, who I’m sure he’d love to stick it to, but he’s playing behind the worst offensive line in football. After allowing just 2.1 yards per carry over the first four games of 2016, the Packers took a turn for the worse against the run, allowing 4.7 yards per carry over the final 12 games. Of the eight running backs who carried the ball at least 13 carries against them, seven of them scored at least 16 PPR points. Lacy is a risky RB3, but he’s the one I’d play if forced to choose between him and Thomas Rawls. With the high total, there’s likely to be at least one rushing score for the Seahawks. Make sure C.J. Prosise is healthy before putting him in lineups, as Pete Carroll has gotten tired of the injuries. Chris Carson is strictly a handcuff at this point.

WRs: As I mentioned in the quarterback section, Rodgers stays away from Richard Sherman when they play each other, meaning whoever lines up at RWR is going to be in for minimal production. In years past, they’d stick their worst receiver over there and just play that way, but they now have three starter-worthy wide receivers between Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Randall Cobb. Last year, Nelson lined up there on near half of his snaps throughout the year, but I doubt that happens in Week 1. As of now, I’d consider Nelson a low-end WR1, Adams a risky WR2, and Cobb an interesting WR3 because he plays the slot over 80 percent of the time. As for the Seahawks, Doug Baldwin needs to be inserted into all lineups, DFS or season-long. He’s been a bit more boom-or-bust than most realize, but this should be one of the “booms.” He will see Damarious Randall a majority of the time, a cornerback who allowed a touchdown every 8.6 targets in coverage last year. The line Baldwin had in their Week 14 matchup (6/46/0) was more on Russell Wilson than the matchup – Wilson was bad in that game. If you want someone near the minimum in DFS, Paul Richardson is a great sleeper play. Most will jump on Tyler Lockett, who is a decent upside option as well, but Richardson has done great with limited opportunities in the past and will now be on the field for two-wide receiver sets.

TEs: In his first game as a Packer, Martellus Bennett will have a tougher matchup than he’d probably like. The Seahawks allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends in 2016 and oddly enough, Bennett was the only tight end who surpassed 61 yards receiving against them. That was also the game Rob Gronkowski got hurt, so Bennett wasn’t the go-to option from the start of the game. I wouldn’t avoid Bennett this week, but I also wouldn’t go out of my way to play him – he’s a low-end TE1. It’s been said that Jimmy Graham lost 20 pounds this offseason due to advice he got from Tony Gonzalez in order to preserve the longevity of his career. Graham was never a very physical tight end, so this shouldn’t affect his abilities. If anything, it should allow him to work deeper down the field. Consider him a rock-solid TE1 against the Packers who held him to just one catch for 16 yards last year, thought we already talked about how bad Wilson was in that game. Graham also faded down the stretch in 2016, making him part of that equation as well.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Packers 23

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