Just the other week, my wife went out to the store to pick up some baby food for our eight-month-old son. When she came back, she had a few packages of Reese’s peanut butter cups with her. Knowing we were on a diet, I asked, “Why in the world would you have gotten Reese’s?” Her response was priceless, as always.
“I read in an article today that said Reese’s would soon be pulled off shelves. So instead of going a lifetime without Reese’s ever again, I thought we should eat some!” She went on to tell me that this article had stated their sales were declining due to the increased health concerns in America. Needless to say, I questioned it and asked her to pull up the article. Her case for buying the Reese’s went down the tubes once we opened up the webpage and noticed that it never named a specific source, as well as the fact that it had grammatical errors all over the place.
Ladies and gentlemen, just because something is on the internet, it does not make it true. You’ll read many things throughout the week, but I can assure you that you’ll only find facts here. Of course, I’ll insert my opinion on how everything affects a player’s fantasy stock, but just because someone tells you that Cam Newton is playing hurt, it doesn’t make it true. There was literally a point in last week’s game where Troy Aikman was going on and on, saying that Newton must be playing hurt with how bad he looked. Then Newton went on a hot streak and you never heard anything about his shoulder again. There has never been anything of substance to his shoulder affecting his play – it was all fabricated to make sense of his struggles. His arm did not magically heal itself after the first quarter against the Patriots.
If this is your first time reading The Primer, I want to give you an idea as to what you should expect. Knowledge, facts, stats, numbers… lots of numbers. The idea is to give you so much knowledge that you’ll feel better than ever when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button. The Primer will be here for you every single week of the NFL season, where we’ll dive into every game, talking about every fantasy relevant player. Once done reading it each week, you should have a better idea as to how the game should go, as well as an idea as to who you should be playing in season-long and who to target in DFS. All games are in order of the time they are taking place, with the Thursday game first and Monday night game last.
*Keep in mind that the game lines and totals may change as the games approach. All of my up-to-date rankings can be found right here.
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 43.0
Line: IND by 1.5
It’s fair to say that this is not the way Kyle Shanahan had hoped his head coaching tenure would start, but when both he and John Lynch were brought on, they both knew it was going to be for the long haul. They’ll look to get their first win against the Andrew Luck-less Colts, who actually have a win under their belt. The Colts have allowed a league-high 34 points per game this year and have not played against Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. The 49ers are likely to be without both Rueben Foster and Eric Reid once again, while the Colts are now down their top two starting centers on the offensive line. This could be an issue for a team allowing a sack on 11.2 percent of dropbacks, third-most in the league.
QBs: It’s hard not to at least consider playing a quarterback against the Colts, as they’ve allowed each of the four quarterbacks they’ve played to score at least 15.9 fantasy points, including 47.7 over the last two weeks to DeShone Kizer and Russell Wilson. They both scored a rushing touchdown, something Hoyer won’t do, but he’s still in play in 2QB formats. In the three games he’s struggled in, they were against the Panthers, Seahawks, and Cardinals – shocker. He should be able to post a minimum of 250 yards and a touchdown in this contest. Jacoby Brissett had his best outing against the Browns, something that shouldn’t shock anyone. The 49ers aren’t far off, though. Through four games, they have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which has included at least one passing score in each game. They allowed mobile quarterback Russell Wilson to rush for 34 yards back in Week 2, meaning they aren’t exactly zeroed in on shutting down a mobile quarterback. They have many other issues in their secondary to worry about. Brissett is also on the 2QB radar and may come with a higher floor than someone like Hoyer.
RBs: It seemed like Carlos Hyde was near full health against a stingy Cardinals run defense last week, as he gritted out 95 total yards on 21 touches, which was more than Ezekiel Elliott could muster just one week before that. The Colts additions at linebacker this offseason have proved to be solid ones, as they have held three of their four opponents to less than 80 rushing yards as a team. The area that he gets a bump though, is the fact that the Colts have now allowed five touchdowns to running backs through four games. Dating back to last year, they have allowed nine touchdowns in their last six games. Hyde has RB1 appeal in this game that should allow him to touch the ball 20-plus times. Matt Breida continues to be a handcuff who would need to score in order to be fantasy relevant. You don’t want to count on that from a backup in a bad offense. The Colts are continuing to hand Frank Gore the ball 15 times per game, despite the fact that he has yet to top 57 rushing yards this season. If he doesn’t score, he’s useless in fantasy football, and he doesn’t even get all the goal-line work. Outside of the two touchdowns the 49ers allowed Todd Gurley, they haven’t allowed any other rushing touchdowns. They have also held opponents to just 3.55 yards per carry through four games, something nobody saw coming, especially without Foster on the field. Gore is a low-upside RB3 who lacks involvement in the passing game. Of course, you’ll have the revenge narrative, but the Colts just simply aren’t a good enough team to put him in position to score a lot. There are no other Colts to consider until Marlon Mack returns to full health.
WRs: We knew it would be a long week for Pierre Garcon against Patrick Peterson last week, but life gets better for him against the Colts this week, though Vontae Davis has returned to the lineup. Truth be told, though, is that Garcon moves all over the formation and will evade Davis’ coverage a majority of the time. Oddly enough, no pass catcher has caught more than five passes against the Colts, though nine of them have totaled more than 50 yards receiving. Consider Garcon a rock-solid WR3 in this matchup who may score his first touchdown of the year. Marquise Goodwin was diagnosed with a concussion, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s ready for this game, but it won’t have any impact in fantasy leagues. What it would mean, though, is that rookie Trent Taylor would see increased snaps and targets, as would Aldrick Robinson. Those two combined for 22 targets in Week 4, though it didn’t amount in much production against the Cardinals. You don’t want to play any of them in season-long leagues, but Robinson would be the tournament pick if you wanted one of them for DFS purposes. He presents big play potential in a plus-matchup. T.Y. Hilton was another one with a tough matchup last week, just one game after destroying the Browns for 153 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers lack a difference maker in their secondary, making Hilton a strong play, even with Brissett under center. Hilton has always been better inside of the dome with his wheels as well. The 49ers have allowed three 100-yard wide receivers in the last two weeks. Consider Hilton a high-upside WR2 for this contest. Donte Moncrief got the touchdown last week, but he hasn’t topped 64 yards since Week 12 of 2015. The 49ers are always a good bet to allow a touchdown, but Moncrief comes with high volatility as a WR4/5 option with Brissett under center. Hilton is the only one I’d play with any sort of confidence.
TEs: It’s been somewhat of a disappointment for George Kittle, who has played a team-high 78 percent of snaps at the tight end position, but has just 83 scoreless yards to show for it on 14 targets. Even in a plus-matchup against the Colts, you can’t play him with any confidence. I’m not convinced the Colts are well equipped to keep tight ends in check, but they haven’t really been tested, as there have been just 21 targets to tight ends through four games. They have allowed 14 receptions for 213 yards and two touchdowns. If you want a low-owned option in DFS, he’s not the worst play, but I think you can do better. After Jack Doyle destroyed the incredibly tough Cardinals defense (against tight ends), he combined for just 43 yards on 12 targets over the last two weeks. This isn’t a great matchup for him regardless, so feel free to find another option until Andrew Luck returns.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Total: 39.0
Line: CLE by 2.5
This should probably be the shortest game I’ve ever had to write-up, but it’ll likely end up the longest. We have two teams who struggle to produce any fantasy consistency through four weeks, though the Matt Forte injury helped clarify the Jets running back situation. The Browns appear likely to have their No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett on the field for this game, which should help boost their overall performance. They’ve also been without linebacker Jamie Collins for the last two weeks, and it appears he’s nearing a return. The Jets, meanwhile, are relatively healthy coming into this game.
QBs: Josh McCown has put together a couple of real-life performances, but that doesn’t do much for fantasy owners. The implied total for the Jets in this game sits at just above 18 points, not enough to give anyone confidence in a quarterback. Before Garrett enters the picture, the Browns have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 24 of their last 30 games. Their lack of pass rush has been obvious, but with Garrett in the picture, McCown will be on the run. He’s already been sacked 12 times through four games, including five times just last week. McCown is fine in 2QB leagues, but don’t get cute and use him as a streamer in standard leagues. DeShone Kizer looks… like a rookie who was forced to play too soon. He was pulled in Week 4 for backup Kevin Hogan, leaving you with zero confidence to start him despite the solid matchup. With that being said, head coach Hue Jackson made it clear that Kizer would be the starter going into this game. The Jets allowed both Tyrod Taylor and Derek Carr to walk all over them, but held Jay Cutler and Blake Bortles in check over the last two weeks. The two who succeeded had better offensive lines and Kizer has already been sacked 11 times, though he’s dropped back to pass more than most. Kizer should offer a solid floor in 2QB formats while playing at home, but nothing more. He lacks the wide receivers to have a true breakout performance.
RBs: It was good to see Bilal Powell get the majority of touches with Matt Forte out last week, but we aren’t in the clear just yet. Rookie Elijah McGuire still played 19 snaps and carried the ball 10 times. It’s not a clear workhorse scenario, so don’t go assuming that Powell is an RB1 with Forte out. The Browns have actually played solid run defense with Jamie Collins out the last two weeks, allowing just 135 yards on 57 carries to the Colts and Bengals. Those two have pitiful offensive lines, though the Jets aren’t much better. Powell is going to be an RB2/flex option with Forte out, simply because of the scarcity at the position. The matchup against the Browns isn’t as enticing as it used to be, but Powell can get it done through the air, where the Browns have allowed Javorius Allen and Giovani Bernard to combine for eight catches, 102 yards, and two touchdowns through the air. Powell is an RB2 in this matchup, while McGuire is nothing more than a desperation RB4/5 type play. The Browns didn’t make the shift that we’d hoped with Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson last week, but it is worth noting that Crowell played a season-low 22 snaps against the Bengals while Johnson played 36 snaps (close to his season average). The addition of Jamal Adams has helped the Jets defense looked competent against running backs over the last few weeks, holding Jay Ajayi and Leonard Fournette to just 2.91 yards per carry and no touchdowns. With the way Crowell has played this season, it’s right to question his future on your fantasy team. With that being said, it’s not often the Browns have a chance to win a game, but this is one of them. The running back options get ugly outside the top-25, so Crowell remains in the RB3 conversation. This is essentially his last shot to prove he’s worth anything, so start him as you kind of have to. Johnson is interesting because he’s getting an increased role, but this game might not fit his ideal script of the Browns passing a lot, especially with Kizer struggling. Johnson has still yet to see more than four carries in a game, so he’s just an RB4 this week in standard leagues, but an solid RB3 in PPR formats.
WRs: The Jets do not have a wide receiver to trust week-in and week-out like most teams, as both Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse have seen exactly 24 targets through four games. Anderson is the one who is used downfield, while Kearse is averaging just 10.1 yards per reception. Considering Kearse requires a lot of catches to produce, Anderson remains the one to take a flier on if you’re inclined to do so. The Browns have allowed six pass-catchers to reach at least 9.1 fantasy points in standard leagues, and that’s large in part to the big play. They have allowed 26 completions of 16 or more yards, which ranks as the eighth-most in the league. It’s hard to trust any of them, but Anderson is on the WR4 radar this week, while Kearse is a bye week filler option in PPR leagues. Kenny Britt has seen 18 targets over the last two weeks, but has turned them into just six catches for 106 yards. He will see plenty of Morris Claiborne this week, enough of a reason for you to stay away if possible. Britt just isn’t clicking with Kizer and he’s got the toughest matchup on the field – he’s just a WR5 option. Ricardo Louis and Rashard Higgins were actually on the field for more snaps than Britt last week, though Higgins struggled for a second straight week. There may be a reason he was on the practice squad prior to the Corey Coleman injury. Louis has been involved the last two weeks with 15 targets, but again, you cannot trust any of them with Kizer struggling. This is a game where the Browns will lean on their run game, making it tough to make a case for Louis to even be in the DFS conversation. You’ll sleep better if you just own zero Browns receivers.
TEs: If there was one week for you to trust Austin Seferian-Jenkins, it’s this week. The Browns were destroyed by tight ends last year and it’s bled into this year. Through four games, they’ve allowed Jesse James 6/41/2, Ben Watson 8/91/0, and Tyler Kroft 6/68/2. In his two games back, Seferian-Jenkins has 10 targets, which trails only Robby Anderson on the team during that stretch. He’s caught nine of them for 90 yards, so the efficiency has been there with McCown. Seferian-Jenkins is legitimately in the TE1 conversation this week and makes for a great DFS play at a low cost. Both David Njoku and Seth DeValve continue to share snaps, making for an ugly timeshare at an already volatile position. After allowing 4/53/1 to Charles Clay in Week 1, the Jets have held the combination of Jared Cook, Julius Thomas, and Marcedes Lewis to just 7/41/0 on 15 targets. DeValve is the one who has out-targeted Njoku 18 to 12, so it’s only a matter of time before he scores his first touchdown, though this isn’t a week to play either of them from a logical standpoint.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 44.5
Line: PIT by 9.0
After losing a game to the Jets, it’s only natural to see a team as a nine-point underdog, though it may not be fair. The Jaguars were coming off a game in London the week prior and may have had some lag effects to deal with. Meanwhile, the Steelers played against a Ravens team who did the same thing. The Steelers got Le’Veon Bell going last week and will return home where they have been a different team from an offense standpoint. The Steelers implied team total sits at 26.8 points, which means that Vegas is expecting fireworks out of them. The only significant injury that would have an effect is right tackle Marcus Gilbert, who has now missed the last two games for the Steelers. His presence would help their pass game, as well as the run game.
QBs: Not that you’d ever want to use Blake Borles, but here is your reason not to. The Steelers have held three of four quarterbacks to less than 10 fantasy points, including each of the last three. The only one who scored a decent amount was DeShone Kizer and he did because he scored 7.7 fantasy points with his legs. Not to say Bortles can’t do that as well (he’s scored five rushing touchdowns the last two years), but you don’t want to bet on that. He’s not even a great option in a 2QB league this week. It was good to see Bell get back on track last week, but what about Ben Roethlisberger? He’s scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in each game at home since the start of last season, but this is one of his toughest matchups yet. The Jaguars have a great pass-rush, maybe the best in football, with a 12.9 percent sack rate, while no other team is above the 9.7 percent mark, which is the Steelers, ironically. According to PFF, Roethlisberger has completed 17 of 32 passes while under pressure for 173 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It’s hard to knock him out of the QB1 territory while at home, but he doesn’t come with the upside he typically does at home. Avoid him in tournaments, even though there will be a lot of people who assume he’s a great play. He gets a slight bump if Gilbert returns, so pay attention to his status.
RBs: It’s been a rough go for Leonard Fournette during his rookie year, as he’s now seen a loaded box of defenders (eight or more) 51 percent of the time, which is the second-highest percentage in the league. Knowing that Blake Bortles cannot make them pay, opponents will continue to do this to him. The Steelers will have to regardless, as they have struggled to contain running backs not named Isaiah Crowell this year. Over the last three weeks, they’ve allowed the combination of Vikings, Bears, and Ravens running backs to combine for 385 yards on 69 carries (5.58 YPC). The concern is that the Jaguars fall behind early and are forced to go away from the run, but their defense should be good enough to keep them in this game, provided Le’Veon Bell doesn’t tear them up early, which is entirely possible. Fournette should still have a good shot to score in this game, making him an RB2, at worst. Speaking of Bell, there may not be a better play this week than him. Not only did he just abuse the Ravens defense for 186 total yards and two touchdowns, but the Jaguars only point of weakness is against the run. They’ve now allowed four rushing touchdowns the last three weeks, including two to the seemingly incompetent Jets running backs last week. During those three weeks, they’ve allowed a league-high 517 rushing yards. Bell is an elite RB1 and I hope you took advantage of his panicking owners after Week 3.
WRs: It’s one thing to get volume out of a wide receiver, but not when he’s continually in the toughest position to succeed. Marqise Lee will see Artie Burns in coverage about half the time, which is far from ideal, considering Burns has really stepped up since the Steelers traded away Ross Cockrell, allowing just 61 yards on 21 targets in coverage this year. Joe Haden, on the other hand, hasn’t been the cornerback they hoped he’d be, allowing a team-high 181 yards in his coverage through four weeks. The Jaguars would be wise to move Lee over to the right side of the formation more often this week, which would make him a solid WR4-type play in a game where they’ll need to throw more than usual. Allen Hurns will match-up with Mike Hilton, who has stolen the nickel cornerback role from William Gay, and has done very well with his opportunity. Hurns isn’t an option in season-long leagues, outside of a desperation bye week filler option, though you can do better. Keelan Cole isn’t an option in fantasy leagues, despite his solid matchup on paper – he’s totaled just 36 yards on 15 targets. Not great, Bob. Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant have tough matchups ahead of them this week, as both Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye have shown shutdown ability. Combined, the Jaguars have not allowed a single wide receiver more than 59 yards. You’ll never sit Brown, but it may be wise to dial back expectations in this matchup. Ramsey has allowed just 42 yards in his coverage all year, but Roethlisberger has never been shy about targeting Brown in one-on-one matchups, so fire him up as a WR1 in season-long leagues, but avoid in tournaments. Bryant is an easier one to bench because of his recent struggles, combined with what is a tough matchup. Consider him a WR4, but one that requires just one play to make you look really smart. Bouye has allowed 15.5 yards per reception on the balls he has let get by in his coverage. JuJu Smith-Schuster is essentially a full-time player and has the best matchup of all the wide receivers this week. It’s tough to sell him as anything more than a touchdown-hopeful WR4/5 option, but you can do worse for a guy who is available in 95 percent of leagues.
TEs: It was back to business as usual for Marcedes Lewis in Week 4, seeing four targets, but catching not one of them. He’s not going to be a fantasy option 90 percent of the time and he may have already hit his one performance for the year. The Steelers aren’t the greatest of matchups, regardless. After Jesse James lit up the fantasy scoreboard in Week 1, he has gone back to fantasy irrelevance, and now Vance McDonald is seeing increased snaps, though he did drop a pass in last week’s win over the Ravens. McDonald played 30 snaps last week to James’ 58 snaps, so the timeshare is already underway. The Jaguars have allowed quite a bit of yardage to tight ends, but that’s not what James is known for. With the tough matchups for Brown and Bryant, you can’t completely rule out James for production, but I wouldn’t want to put actually money on that.
