This week is difficult, as there are three moderately safe quarterbacks and no workhorse running backs in easy matchups that stand out like we saw with LeSean McCoy and Mark Ingram last week. What we do have, however, are three strong mid-priced wide receiver plays and an absolute steal at tight end that will enable us to spend up at the more challenging positions to ensure some safety. Let’s take a look at how it all comes together.
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Quarterback
Drew Brees (NO vs TB): $8,300
This season, Brees hasn’t quite seemed like himself, but bare in mind that he has gone against three of the top four defenses and is still averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game which is above 2x value. Seeing that Tampa is a bottom quadrant secondary, he is a good bet to reach that magic 16.7 number for cash games and don’t forget just how dominant he has been at home in the dome throughout his career.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette (JAC vs CIN): $8,600
In a week where the top backs are not exactly questionable, it makes sense to turn to Fournette who is the epitome of safe. You can play him in any matchup or game script and count on at least a dozen points. Despite having played one of the more difficult schedules in the league, he has somehow compiled a whopping 20.4 fantasy points per game. Expect another 20+ touches and 100+ yards with a touchdown, as he seems to produce every single time out.
Christian McCaffrey (CAR vs ATL): $6,100
Part of the reason that the Panthers dealt Kelvin Benjamin is that they knew they had a superb wide receiver in McCaffrey waiting in the wings. Yes, he is technically a running back, but when you compare his 49 carries to the near-league leading 66 targets, you’ll get an idea of what we have here. He is a reception hog and a safe bet to reach 10 fantasy points just based on receptions and total yards. Don’t forget either that he has big-play upside and is due for positive touchdown regression with all the volume he has been seeing.
Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant (DAL vs KC): $7,700
So far this season, Dez has been shadowed by Janoris Jenkins, Denver’s deadly duo, Patrick Peterson, Trumaine Johnson and Josh Norman. That is hardly fair. Still, he has been getting in the end-zone because he is a certified touchdown machine. Expect much more than his 10.9 points per game average as Dallas welcome Kansas City’s bottom three defense for what looks to be a shootout.
Michael Thomas (NO vs TB): $7,600
We’ve already touched on why this is a great matchup for Drew Brees and the Saints’ passing game, and while Thomas has been somewhat of a disappointment this year, he is among the most consistent weapons in football. So far, he has given us at least 11.2 fantasy points in 5 out of 7 contests and that includes some very challenging matchups. He could set himself a new season high for receptions and receiving yards this week at home against the Bucs.
Sammy Watkins (LAR @ NYG): $6,000
Can we pause for a second and remember that this is one of the most talented receivers in football—at just $6,000!! Yes, I know he has burned a lot of fantasy teams, but what did you expect against Josh Norman, Richard Sherman, Jalen Ramsay and Patrick Peterson? This week was looking to be more of the same with Janoris Jenkins, but the Giants suspended him so expect a week much closer to what we saw at San Francisco against a lousy defense rather than what we have grown accustomed to seeing this season.
Tight End
Jack Doyle (IND @ HOU): $5,700
Jimmy Graham is another great option here, but Doyle takes the cake. We are talking about someone who caught 12 passes last week for stupid cheap. In fact, Doyle has 25 receptions for over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns over his previous three games despite some more difficult opponents on the schedule. Jacoby Brissett insists on passing to Doyle time and time again so it is a good idea to get him into your lineups before his price catches up with the production.
Kicker
Phil Dawson (ARI @ SF): $4,700
If you expect the 49ers to slow down anyone, you’d be mistaken. With that said, Drew Stanton is not throwing many red zone passes this week. I’d bet a large sum of money on that one. This can only mean multiple field goal attempts are imminent for a competent kicker in reasonable weather conditions.
Defense
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC vs CIN): $5,300
This is the easiest call of the season at any position so don’t get cute and fade them. We are looking at 75% cash game ownership here and frankly, I’d advise playing them if they were an extra $1,000. Cincy couldn’t stop a middle school soccer team from sacking Andy Dalton so they will surely have no answer for Calais Campbell and friends who are on pace to break the NFL team sacks record this season.
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Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.
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