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Running Back Snap Count Analysis: Week 10 (Fantasy Football)

Running Back Snap Count Analysis: Week 10 (Fantasy Football)

Last week, we finally saw what an Ezekiel Elliott-less backfield looked like in Dallas, and the playing time along with analysis are below. I also run it back from last week’s piece with a number of repeat visitors. And, believe it or not, New England’s backfield wasn’t quite as cluttered as usual last week. In all, five running-back situations warranted an extended look this week.

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Cowboys last week vs. Falcons, this week vs. Eagles

Player Snaps
Rod Smith 38
Alfred Morris 22
Darren McFadden 1

 
Smith led Dallas’ backfield in snaps, but he was largely ineffective rushing three times for 14 yards and catching four of six targets for 15 yards. Morris led the way in carries (11) and rushing yards (53), but he was a literal complete non-factor in the passing game with zero targets. Thoughts that McFadden was being put on ice prior to the suspension in order to claim a feature-back role were completely dashed when he played one offensive snap and parlayed it into a single carry for a loss of two yards. Zeke’s absence isn’t ideal for the Cowboys, but the absence of super-stud left tackle Tyron Smith was far more impactful. Dak Prescott was sacked eight times, and the offense mustered just one touchdown. Morris is the best back of the bunch, but he’s game-script dependent as a total dud in the passing game. This is a week Morris is best glued to the bench due to the risk of Philadelphia’s high-powered offense putting the Cowboys in an early hole. Furthermore, Philadelphia’s run defense is stout, and Tyron Smith’s status is up in the air.

Lions last week vs. Browns, this week @ Bears

 
So much for Abdullah’s fumbling woes in Week 9 hurting his playing time. Abdullah led the team in rushes (11), rushing yards (52), and he scored a touchdown on a 7-yard run, thus, enhancing his outlook in the red zone going forward. Riddick continued to be mostly quiet from a volume perspective. He carried the ball four times and caught all three of his targets for a total of 45 yards from scrimmage, but he did find paydirt on an 8-yard grab. Washington caught his only target for 10 yards and failed to attempt a run. The Lions had surprising success against a tough run defense, but they only had 15 rushing attempts between the trio of backs in the table. Abdullah remains the best fantasy option in the backfield despite my concerns after Week 9, but his ceiling is low and he’s best deployed as a Flex or low-end RB2 in favorable matchups.

Packers last week @ Bears, this week vs. Ravens

 
Yikes. Green Bay’s backfield was bitten by the injury bug twice last week. First, Jones suffered a knee injury that will sideline him for multiple weeks. Then, Montgomery aggravated his rib injury, though, he has a “chance” to play this week. Prior to the injury, Montgomery was putting together a solid game with six carries for 54 yards and a score, and adding two grabs on two targets for 14 yards. Williams relieved the two backs ahead of him and was leaned on as a bell cow carrying the ball 20 times and catching his only target. The volume was nice, but he turned it into just 67 yards rushing and seven more receiving. If Montgomery is forced to miss this week’s game, volume should be there for Williams, but that doesn’t instantly thrust him into RB2 territory given his inefficiency (3.3 yards per carry this season) and Green Bay’s unappetizing implied team over/under total of 18 points, per Pinnacle. Also, it’s worth mentioning Baltimore might be a bad matchup. Their season-long totals (12th most fantasy points allowed to running backs this year, according to Pro-Football-Reference) might not be the best barometer for judging their current run defense. The Ravens were punched in the mouth on the ground from Week 3 through Week 8, but they were without nose tackle Brandon Williams in those contests. The Ravens have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing in four of five games Williams has played, and they’re coming off of their two best performances defending the run holding the Dolphins and Titans to a combined 116 yards rushing in their last two games prior to their Week 10 bye.

Dolphins last week @ Panthers, this week vs. Buccaneers

Player Snaps
Damien Williams 32
Kenyan Drake 25

 
Williams out snapped and out-touched Drake. The former rushed nine times and caught two passes, and the latter rushed seven times and caught two passes in the Miami’s Monday Night Football blowout loss. Williams totaled only 39 yards of offense, and the Dolphins would probably be wise to cut back on his touches in favor of the more explosive second-year runner. Drake showed off his explosiveness on a 66-yard touchdown run, and he turned his nine touches into 92 yards from scrimmage and the aforementioned score. Tampa Bay has coughed up the 11th most fantasy points to running backs this year. The matchup and Drake’s home-run ability make him a viable Flex this week, and he’s the better back to own for the rest of the season.

Patriots last week @ Broncos, this week @ Raiders (in Mexico City)

Player Snaps
Rex Burkhead 36
Dion Lewis 21
James White 11

 
Mike Gillislee is notably absent from the table, and he was a healthy inactive in Week 10. Further removed from his rib injury he suffered in Week 2 that sidelined him for four weeks, Burkhead set a season-high for offensive snaps for the third straight week. His offensive snaps have increased from 13 in Week 7 to 27 in Week 8 and 36 last week following New England’s Week 9 bye. The former Bengals versatility was on full display against the Broncos with him carrying the ball 10 times for 36 yards and reeling in all three of his targets for 27 yards and a score. Lewis led the way in carries (14), rushing yards (55), and he scored a rushing touchdown and return touchdown, but he wasn’t targeted a single time. Lewis’ 21 offensive snaps were his lowest total since Week 5, and White’s 11 were his lowest total of the year. White’s offensive snaps have been on the decline every week since Week 4. A late touchdown grab helped salvage an awful game in which he recorded 18 yards from scrimmage on two carries and three catches. Burkhead’s multi-faceted skill-set makes him a candidate to be something of a feature back — at least by Patriots standards. Lewis should continue to get regular work on the ground, and White’s receiving skills should also continue to be put to use, but Burkhead’s the best back to own in New England’s committee. Burkhead is a fringe RB2 or solid Flex in all game types, but his value does get a bump in PPR-scoring formats.



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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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