Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 44.0
Line: PHI by 13.5
QBs
Mitch Trubisky: Don’t look now, but the Bears have allowed Trubisky to throw the ball at least 30 times in each of the last three games. Coincidentally, he’s posted his three biggest fantasy days in the process. He’s also totaled 53 yards on the ground in two of the last three games, an underrated part of his game. The Eagles had been a defense to target with quarterbacks, though over the last three games, they’ve completely shut down C.J. Beathard, Brock Osweiler, and Dak Prescott. We can see a good reason with two of those three, while Prescott looked completely lost on Sunday night. He was actually the first quarterback to fail to throw a touchdown against the Eagles. As been the case for the last two weeks, Trubisky is in play in 2QB leagues and comes with a solid floor. Seeing that the Eagles have allowed five quarterbacks rush for at least 18 yards, including three with 30 or more, and you’ll feel better about him.
Carson Wentz: The current favorite for MVP, Wentz has been on a roll, throwing 19 touchdowns over his last six games with just three interceptions. The run game is firing on all cylinders, which will in turn open things up in the passing game. The only issue we’re going to run into at some point is touchdown regression, as Wentz has not thrown the ball more than 32 times since way back in Week 2. The Bears defense has been much better than anyone expected, allowing just one top-eight performance to a quarterback, which was Aaron Rodgers way back in Week 4. In fact, Matthew Stafford was just the second quarterback to throw more than one touchdown against them this year. Knowing that and that just three quarterbacks have thrown for more than 235 yards, Wentz may not be an ultra-high ceiling QB1 this week. He’s extremely safe, but is more of a mid-tier QB1 than elite this week.
RBs
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: The Bears were able to run the ball last week, while using both Howard and Cohen. Who knew that both could get the ball and be successful? I’m kidding. Everyone outside of John Fox knows that. This week, however, it’ll be much tougher for them to go with their signature ground-and-pound. The Eagles have allowed just two running backs all season to rush for more than 38 yards, though they have allowed six top-12 performances in PPR formats because there’ve been nine different running backs to rack up 22 or more receiving yards. Keep in mind that Howard has caught just four balls since Week 4, making him a touchdown-or-bust RB2 this week and not one to use in DFS. Cohen, on the other hand, is an intriguing option because of his skillset. His 47 targets rank 13th among running backs even though he ranks 38th among them in snaps. His 31 snaps in Week 11 was his second-highest total of the season and he played extremely well, so there’s little reason to think he can’t be in the flex consideration against the Eagles. The only risk is Fox.
Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement: I am not going to list Kenjon Barner, even though he scored last week. As mentioned here when the Eagles traded for Ajayi, Doug Pederson doesn’t believe in workhorse running backs, as evidenced by every game he’s coached with the Eagles. With that being said, why is Blount out-carrying the guy you just traded a draft pick for? I’m on board with Blount playing better than expected, but then why trade for Ajayi? This backfield is going to be a nightmare to predict every week, though I do believe Ajayi has the most value in the long run. There have been 13 running backs who’ve totaled at least 10 carries against the Bears, so they’re used to it, and have yet to allow a running back more than 95 yards rushing. In fact, outside of the game McKinnon totaled 95 yards (where the Bears were down five linebackers by the end of the game), they haven’t allowed a running back more than 75 yards on the ground. The reason to like them a bit more this week is because they’re at home and are heavy favorites, meaning they should have plenty opportunities to score. For now, Ajayi is a low-end RB2, Blount an RB3, and Clement just a desperation RB4. This is a backfield you want no part of come the fantasy playoffs.
WRs
Dontrelle Inman: After two games with the Bears, Inman leads all pass-catchers with 13 targets, 9 receptions and 131 yards. Knowing that he’ll develop more chemistry as him and Trubisky play together, there’s reason for optimism here. The Eagles secondary got Ron Darby back last week, which is a huge addition, though he isn’t going to shadow Inman or anything. Because of that, Inman is in play as a WR4 in a game where the Bears will struggle to run the ball. Knowing that the Eagles opponents average 39.5 pass attempts per game (most in the NFL), his 20 percent target share over the last two weeks would amount to eight targets.
Kendall Wright: Since Trubisky took over, Wright has seen 28 targets in six games, hardly giving you confidence to start him, though he has seen eight targets in two of the last three games. Going back to the fact that the Eagles allow the most pass attempts per game, there could be another highly-targeted game on the horizon. While I feel better about Inman, you could do worse than Wright as your WR5 in this game.
Alshon Jeffery: His revenge game couldn’t come at a better time, as he’s scored four touchdowns in the last three games. There’s a notion that the Bears don’t allow top wide receivers a lot of fantasy points, and well, that’s simply not true. They have allowed six wide receivers to finish as the WR13 or better this year and every single one of them came to No. 1 perimeter wide receivers. Over the last two weeks they’ve allowed Marvin Jones 4/85/1 and Davante Adams 5/90/1. Jeffery is a low-end WR1 who should score.
Nelson Agholor: Some will ask about Agholor, but he’s not an option for me this week. The Bears have defended the slot extremely well and should get Bryce Callahan back this week, though Cre’von LeBlanc did a fine job holding down the slot while he was out. Agholor has now finished with 36 yards or less in three straight games and he’s topped 58 yards just once since Week 1.
TEs
Adam Shaheen: He made an impressive snag for a touchdown last week, highlighting what the Bears expected from him after drafting him in the second-round. He’s still seen just six targets the last two weeks while Trubisky has thrown the ball 65 times, so we can’t go overboard. He’s most definitely on the streaming radar going forward, though, as his 73 percent of snaps last week was easily a season-high. The Eagles have allowed just three tight ends to finish as top-12 options against them and each of them saw at least eight targets, somewhere we aren’t at with Shaheen just yet. He can be played as a TE2, but there’ll be better matchups to exploit if those snap counts stay up.
Zach Ertz: After missing Week 9 with a hamstring injury, Ertz returned to the lineup to catch just two passes for eight yards in their Week 11 game against the Cowboys, but he looked to be healthy while running his routes. The Bears haven’t been a defense to target with tight ends this year, as they’ve allowed just one tight end to top 45 yards and that was Austin Hooper way back in Week 1 where almost all of his yards came on an 88-yard touchdown. That was also one of the only two touchdowns the Bears have allowed to tight ends this year. Ertz has now failed to top six targets in each of his last four games and has averaged just 37.3 yards per game in that span. He’s still a TE1 that you have to play, but this may be a week to have less exposure in DFS.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 45.0
Line: KC by 10.0
QBs
Tyrod Taylor: It’s funny how everyone but Sean McDermott knew that Taylor was the best option at quarterback for the Bills. What’s even funnier is that he watched Nathan Peterman throw five first-half interceptions and still considered starting him for this game. That’s a man who’s unwilling to acknowledge he made a mistake. No matter who takes the field for the Bills this weekend is going to be in a tough spot, however, as the Chiefs typically dominate opponents at home. They allowed 7.1 fewer points at home than on the road last year, and are allowing 4.2 fewer points at home this year. After starting the year pathetically against the pass, allowing 13 passing touchdowns through seven games, they’ve allowed just three passing scores over their last three games. Taylor should have a lot of room to run, though, as they’ve allowed six different quarterbacks at least 15 rushing yards, including 55 yards to Carson Wentz and 38 yards to Kirk Cousins. Taylor isn’t a tournament-winning quarterback this week, but he’s in the high-end QB2 conversation because of his rushing abilities.
Alex Smith: If you read The Primer every week and don’t follow me on Twitter, you’d likely be disappointed in my love for Smith last week. If you were on Twitter, you’d see that I downgraded Smith due to the 25 MPH winds with 35-40 MPH gusts in Meadowlands Stadium. Did I expect a 230-yard, zero-touchdown performance? Absolutely not. It was just the second time he’s scored less than 15.1 fantasy points this year, though two of those games came in the last three weeks. This is a potential bounce-back spot for him, though, as the Bills have now allowed 35.2 points per game since their bye in Week 6. The issue with relying on too big of a performance is that the Bills have allowed just two quarterbacks to total more than 16.9 fantasy points this year and large in part to the fact that there have been just two quarterbacks to throw more than one touchdown. Their run defense has been brutal as of late, though seeing how many points they’re allowing, Smith should get enough love here to justify starting him as a low-end QB1 with a solid floor. The Bills have allowed three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks as well, something Smith isn’t opposed to doing.
RBs
LeSean McCoy: It was almost as if McCoy had the fountain of youth poured into his body last week, as he looked faster than I’ve seen him in a long time. Despite carrying the ball just 13 times and catching one pass, he finished as the RB1 in Week 11. The area of concern is his dip in obvious passing situations, as he’s caught just four passes over the last three games, after catching 38 passes in the first eight games. He’s also carried the ball just 33 times over the last three weeks, meaning he’s needing to hit the big play to justify starting him as an RB1. It’s possible that McCoy is just aging and dealing with some aches and pains, or it could simply be bad coaching. The talent is obviously there, but the Chiefs have allowed just two top-10 running backs all year, and one was Mike Gillislee when he scored three touchdowns in Week 1, while the other was Le’Veon Bell in a game he touched the ball 35 times. Consider McCoy a low-end RB1 for this game and one that I’d likely avoid in DFS.
Kareem Hunt: Remember when I said that I’d be worried if Hunt didn’t finish as a top-12 running back against the Giants? Well, he barely finished inside of the top-30 for the week. He’s just not breaking off the long runs that he was to start the season and he’s now failed to score more than 7.7 standard points in any of the last three weeks, and has failed to score more than 12.1 points since Week 3. The blocking has been far from ideal, but whatever the case for his struggles, his fantasy numbers are being affected. The Bills have now allowed a robust 12 rushing touchdowns over their last four games and have allowed five running backs to finish inside the top-28 over the last two weeks. He’s still getting plenty of volume and knowing they’ll be at home as the heavy favorite, it’s hard to not go back to the well. Some may be panicked, and while I’m concerned, he’s still an elite play this week. The Bills are giving up tons of what he’s been lacking. If you’re still able to trade in your league, you should do a price-check before this game.
WRs
Zay Jones: He’s now strung together two solid games in a row and should see plenty of targets with Kelvin Benjamin out of the lineup. The issue is that the Chiefs have looked better over the last few weeks now that they’ve got Steven Nelson back and were able to slide Philip Gaines back to RCB to replace Terrance Mitchell, who had been getting beat like a drum. Jones has still been inconsistent throughout his rookie year, so it’s impossible to trust him as anything more than a WR4/WR5.
Tyreek Hill: If his streak holds true, Hill should have a solid game this week. For whatever reason, he’s failed to post double-digit fantasy games in back-to-back weeks. He’s totaled at least 64 yards in four of the last six games, but he’s still yet to see more than seven targets. Look for the Chiefs to go back to the explosive offense we saw at the end of 2016/beginning of 2017, as they embarrassed themselves with a loss to the Giants. The Bills secondary started the year hot but have cooled off as the season’s gone on, though they’ve still allowed just five top-18 performances. Every single one of those performances went to players who saw at least 10 targets, an area we don’t expect Hill to reach. He’s a low-end WR2 for this game, though I wouldn’t be shocked if they use him on a few trick plays/carries.
TEs
Charles Clay: When you look at the box score, you see Clay had just three catches for 27 yards. What you don’t see is that he dropped a sure-fire touchdown late in the game that could’ve changed the perception on him. He’s only seen seven targets the last two weeks, though that number should rise with Benjamin and potentially Jordan Matthews out of the lineup. The Chiefs have been solid tight ends since losing Eric Berry, and they did an exceptional job stopping Evan Engram last week. They’ve allowed at least 63 yards to four different tight ends, so don’t cross Clay off the potential streamers list. There are limited options for Taylor to throw to in this game, making Clay a middling-TE2.
Travis Kelce: After being the first tight end to score against the Giants, Kelce will play against a Bills defense that’s been decent against the position, though their overall numbers are somewhat misleading. There have been just three tight ends to total more than five targets against them, and all of them finished in the top-10 for that week, as all of them finished with at least 50 yards. There’s no reason to consider fading Kelce in this matchup.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 42.5
Line: SEA by 7.0
QBs
Russell Wilson: The 49ers will come back from their bye week to face Wilson, one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league. Over the last five weeks, Wilson has posted 315.8 yards per game, 13 passing touchdowns, and another 44.4 rushing yards per game with a rushing touchdown. Whew, that’s a lot. The 49ers are consistently giving to opposing quarterbacks, allowing 7-of-10 to throw for at least two touchdowns, even though just one of them has reached 40 pass attempts. Wilson played against them at home back in Week 2 where he totaled just 198 yards and one touchdown, but if you were here for The Primer, you’d know that he’s always started the year slow. They’ve allowed at least 14.2 fantasy points to each of the quarterbacks since then, including a 30-point game to Dak Prescott. He’s an elite QB1.
Jimmy Garoppolo/C.J. Beathard: It would make sense for Garoppolo to start coming out of the bye, as he’s been with the team for multiple weeks and C.J. Beathard injured his throwing thumb in their Week 10 victory. The Seahawks were an imposing defense before losing Richard Sherman, Cliff Avril, and Kam Chancellor, but looked like a shell of their former selves against the Falcons on Monday night. They’ll be playing the same offense in Week 12, as the Falcons kept the same offense intact that Kyle Shanahan uses in San Francisco. Matt Ryan said himself that it took a long time to learn the Shanahan offense, so expecting Garoppolo to pick it up and dominate right away with no wide receivers is not likely. He’s just a low-end QB2 against the banged-up Seahawks. If Beathard starts, he would be in the similar range, as he’s played slightly better each week.
RBs
J.D. McKissic, Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, Mike Davis: This is going to be awful to predict, as the Seahawks have tried every combination possible, though it’s fair to say that you can’t play anyone confidently. Did you know: The Seahawks have not given a running back outside of Chris Carson more than 11 carries in any one game? Carson hasn’t played since Week 4. There’ve been three games where McKissic has seen at least five targets, but it’s unlikely they’ll need the running backs catching passes this week. If forced to choose one, it’d be McKissic, though he’s just an RB4. Rawls was inactive, Lacy was clearly behind Davis on the depth chart, and now Davis may miss this game. Stay far away if you can help it.
Carlos Hyde and Matt Breida: He would likely benefit from Beathard starting, as he’s been targeted 37 times in the last five games, which was more than all but 11 wide receivers during that span and second among running backs to only Christian McCaffrey. That’s given Hyde a solid floor, especially in PPR formats. The Seahawks run defense held Tevin Coleman in check on Monday night, though he did score, but he’s also not as talented as Hyde is. In their first meeting at full strength, Hyde was able to post 124 yards on 15 carries, which was the most by any running back against the Seahawks this year. With Kam Chancellor out, Shanahan has to attack them on the ground, making Hyde a low-end RB1/high-end RB2. Matt Breida has just 13 touches over the last two games, making him a risky play in just about any format, especially now that Hyde is getting the majority of passing-down work.
WRs
Doug Baldwin: The 49ers got their slot cornerback K’Waun Williams back prior to the bye week, but he’s had major difficulty stopping wide receivers. Since the start of Week 3 he’s seen 33 targets in coverage, allowing 30 receptions for 259 yards and one touchdown. That’s a crazy-high 91 percent catch rate. Baldwin needs it, too, as his targets have dipped the last two weeks with Richardson, Lockett, and Graham being heavily involved. He’s been a lot more hit-or-miss than fantasy owners would like, but his matchup is solid. Consider him a low-end WR1.
Paul Richardson: After seeing just two and three targets in Weeks 9 and 10, Richardson saw a season-high eight targets in Week 11 against the Falcons. Wilson is spreading the ball around, but still favors Richardson in the red zone, as he leads the receivers with nine red zone targets. The 49ers have struggled throughout this season, allowing nine different wide receivers to finish as top-24 options against them. He totaled just 19 yards against them in their first meeting, but he did score, salvaging the day. That’s what he offers, so matching up with Akhello Witherspoon and Dontae Johnson doesn’t do anything but make you feel more confident that he finds the end zone again. He’s an upside WR4 with the way Wilson is slinging it.
Tyler Lockett: The Seahawks are giving him every opportunity to succeed, as he’s seen five more targets than Richardson on the season, but still trails him by a solid 35 points in PPR formats. He’s now finished with 37 yards or less in five of his last six games, and that’s despite Wilson playing some of the best football of his career. We’ve seen him destroy certain weeks before, so he’s one of those guys to stick in a few tournament lineups at the chance he goes for 150 and a touchdown, but trusting him as anything more than a WR4/5 in season-long leagues would be a mistake. This matchup presents all sorts of opportunity.
Marquise Goodwin: Let me start by saying I’m rooting for Goodwin the remainder of his career and will celebrate with him. No one should have to go through what he and his family have, ever. With that being said, he’s going to be asked to be the No. 1 wide receiver in this offense, something he’s not built to do. He’s seen eight targets in two of the last three games, giving him plenty of opportunity to hit that big play. He’s totaled at least 68 yards in four of the last five games, making teams take notice. The Seahawks secondary is obviously not what it once was, but Earl Thomas limits the vertical passing game. Because of that, Goodwin sits in that WR4 territory despite his higher target numbers.
TEs
Jimmy Graham: He’s now finished as the TE1 in back-to-back weeks, but will head out to play a 49ers team that limited to just one catch for one yard back in Week 2. Again, Wilson wasn’t throwing well at that time of the year, but the 49ers have defended the tight end position extremely well this year, not allowing a single one to top 54 yards. In fact, just one tight end has topped 37 yards against them. Keep in mind that they’ve played Evan Engram, Jason Witten, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, and Graham himself. It’s likely time for one of the receivers to take the spotlight, but you’re starting Graham if you’ve got him.
Greg Kittle and Garrett Celek: The last time you heard me talk about Celek, good things happened, though you shouldn’t count on that happening again. Not that the Seahawks aren’t a good matchup for tight ends, because they have been as of late, allowing five of the last six tight ends they’ve played to finish as top-12 options. The issue is that we can’t guarantee targets for him, especially if Kittle suits up for the game. If Kittle misses again, Celek can be put into the TE2 conversation as someone who can get you 3-6 points, but expecting more than that is playing with fire. Kittle himself may be limited if he returns to the lineup, so he’s not to be trusted this week.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Total: 43.5
Line: OAK by 5.0
QBs
Paxton Lynch: It was announced on Tuesday that Lynch would be starting against the Raiders. There’s an interesting dynamic to this game, as the Broncos just fired their offensive coordinator and the Raiders just fired their defensive coordinator. Too bad we don’t have a quarterback that can take advantage of that. If you watched Lynch in the preseason, you likely know why he’s not a recommended start. The Broncos actually wanted to give him the job, but couldn’t justifiably do it with his play. He’s not on the fantasy radar, even in a good matchup against the Raiders.
Derek Carr: If you listened into our podcast last week, I went to bat hard for Carr and he let me down in a big way. The Patriots had allowed 8-of-9 quarterbacks throw for at least 7.1 yards per attempt, yet Carr hit a new low, just 4.8 yards per attempt. He’s now topped 13.7 fantasy points just once over his last eight games, which included matchups with the Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, Chargers, and Redskins. Each of the three teams he’s had solid fantasy games against have been the Titans, Jets, and Chiefs, three of the worst pass defenses in football. While the Broncos aren’t the same team they were last year, they are competent. The oddest stat of the day for you is likely this…the Broncos have allowed 22 passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL. They’ve also intercepted just four passes, the fourth-fewest in the league. With that being said, they have allowed just two quarterbacks throw for more than 213 yards on the season, with 6-of-10 throwing for less than 200 yards. Knowing the Broncos have allowed 10 passing scores the last three weeks makes you want to trust Carr, but it’s impossible with how mediocre he’s been. He’s a great play in 2QB leagues, though.
RBs
C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker: This should be interesting, because the Broncos have to come into this game planning to run the ball 30 times with Lynch under center. The question is who they’re trusting under the new offensive coordinator, Bill Musgrave. I would think Anderson gets first crack, but both will likely have a chance to earn the job. The Raiders have allowed a league-high eight RB1 performances this season, so there should be some sort of value, though figuring out which one is essentially a coin flip. As of now, I’ll put Anderson down in the high-end RB3 conversation, while Booker is a flex-option. The concern is the lack of scoring opportunities in the offense. Understand that there’s risk with both of them. Jamaal Charles shouldn’t be on fantasy rosters at this point.
Marshawn Lynch: After posting a two-touchdown game against the Dolphins before their bye week, Lynch went right back to his normal performance of 77 total yards. On the year, he’s finished in between 49-92 total yards in 6-of-9 games, scoring in three of them. That puts him in the RB3 conversation more often than not, though this week isn’t one where he’s very enticing. The Broncos have allowed just 77.1 rushing yards per game to opponents with just four touchdowns, though three of them came in one game to the Eagles. Their 3.29 yards per carry allowed ranks third-best in the league, too, so don’t go thinking Lynch is going to win you a million dollars in DFS or anything. He’s just a low-end RB3 in this contest.
WRs
Demaryius Thomas: If there’s one player who’s going to be upset that Brock Osweiler isn’t under center, it’s Thomas who scored in all three games he played with him. No matter who is quarterbacking the Broncos team, they should be targeting Thomas an awful lot, as they don’t have a tight end or slot receiver who deserves to see more than a handful of targets. The Raiders secondary is putrid, though they had allowed just two WR1 performances on the season coming into their game against the Patriots where both Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola finished as top-10 wide receivers. In their first meeting this year, Thomas posted just one catch for 11 yards, though I’d consider it a fluke, as there’ve been just three games all season where he’s totaled less than 64 yards. Play him as a high-end WR3 who has a limited ceiling.
Emmanuel Sanders: After roasting Malcolm Butler in Week 10, Sanders had trouble getting anything going against the Bengals, totaling just two catches for 15 yards on eight targets. He’s now totaled 30 yards or less in two of his last three games and now has Lynch coming in as the starter in what will likely be a lower volume passing attack. As usual, Sanders is an iffy WR3 play, though if he were going to get something going with Lynch at quarterback, this would be the week against the weak Raiders secondary.
Amari Cooper: He now has 45 targets over his last four games, and while he’s netted 344 yards in those games, a majority of them came in one game. The Raiders offense is really struggling, not just Cooper, as they rank just 20th in points per game. The Broncos don’t do any shadow coverage or anything, which means Cooper will see a Bradley Roby a majority of the time while Crabtree sees Aqib Talib. While Cooper played semi-decent against them last year, he totaled just two catches for nine yards in their first meeting, though Crabtree was out for that game. It’s hard to say Cooper is more than a high-end WR3 in this matchup, though there is touchdown upside in this matchup.
Michael Crabtree: It was Crabtree who took the turn with a case of the drops last week, as he didn’t play what I’d call a great game. He’s now topped 52 yards just once in his last five games and hasn’t scored in three straight games. Crabtree is the favorite in the end zone, which is where the Broncos have struggled, so while he’s got a tougher matchup than Cooper, he’s always got the better shot to score a touchdown. They are in the same territory for rankings, as Cooper has the higher upside, so it’s all about risk/reward and what you want. He didn’t play in the first meeting against the Broncos, but he struggled in the two meetings with them last year, totaling just seven catches for 74 scoreless yards in the two games combined. He’s a high-end WR3 this week.
TEs
Austin Traylor: Who? Exactly. Traylor was called up from the practice squad before last week’s game due to injuries to both A.J. Derby and Jeff Heuerman. He stepped up and caught four balls for 36 yards against the stiff Bengals defense on five targets, so he was involved from the get-go. It’s tough to recommend him as a streamer because we don’t have much information on him. He was an undrafted free agent last year who has bounced around to numerous teams. I’d like to see it another week before trusting him, even if the Raiders struggle against tight ends.
Jared Cook: After posting three solid games in a row, Cook fell victim to the weak Raiders offense against the Patriots, finishing with just two catches and 36 yards against a team that has been struggling against tight ends. The Broncos are even worse. They’ve now allowed 8-of-10 tight ends finish as top-13 PPR options. Cook and Antonio Gates were the only ones to fall out of that territory, though I don’t think it happens again. They have allowed a tight end touchdown in 7-of-10 games, including each of their last four games. Consider him a low-end TE1 who is consistently seeing 5-8 targets.