So much for my sanity, as we’re back to all 32 teams playing this week. Therefore, you can expect even more words than normal. On top of that, it’s Thanksgiving week, so we have three games on Thursday to take in. I get it, you have decisions to make, ones that can affect your fantasy future. So instead of carrying on with a long intro, let’s get into the what we’re here for – the information. I hope all of you have a Happy Thanksgiving with your families and that you can enjoy the little things this week.
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If this is your first time here, The Primer was made so that you could have something to go along with rankings. Something that gave you reasoning as to why a player should be started or why he should be benched. There’s not much time for you to dive knee-deep into stats during the week when you have a full-time job and a family, I get it. That’s what I’m here for. Things can obviously change throughout the week, so make sure you pay attention to my rankings come Sunday morning. You can find them right here. Now let’s talk about what to expect in Week 12.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 38.0
Line: CIN by 8.0
QBs
DeShone Kizer: Have we seen enough yet? I mean, he’s been given every chance to show improvement, but instead, he’s regressed as the season’s gone on. Since the Week 1 game where he threw for 7.4 yards per attempt, he’s yet to top 6.3 yards per attempt in any of the other games. He’s now thrown just two touchdowns since Week 3 and is nowhere close to the fantasy relevance conversation. Yes, he has four games with 14.9 or more points, but all four of them included a rushing touchdown, something we cannot rely upon for our fantasy quarterbacks. The last time he played the Bengals while at home, he totaled just 118 yards on 34 pass attempts without throwing a touchdown. Just say no, guys. Their implied team total is 15 points in this game.
Andy Dalton: Well, well, well… Blake Bortles can ruin a perfectly good streak, eh? Every week, I look forward to updating my spreadsheet that shows the Browns had allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 28 of their last 35 games, but Bortles failed to add to that list, making it 28 of their last 36 games. Not bad, as Dalton has contributed to that list four different times, including Week 4 when he completed 25-of-30 passes for 286 yards and four touchdowns. The Browns have been able to limit opponent’s run games, which has led them to throw more touchdowns than maybe most of us would expect. The passing touchdown to rushing touchdown ratio is one of the best for opposing quarterbacks, at 20 to 6. Consider Dalton a safe QB1 this week and one that can be used in DFS cash games.
RBs
Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson: Just as we start to see glimpses of the player Crowell was supposed to be, he goes and posts a line of 11 carries for 18 yards without a single catch. We should’ve known that it was too good to be true. The Bengals aren’t a defense to completely avoid, as they’ve now allowed at least one running back to score 10 or more standard fantasy points in six of their last seven games. The Browns were in that streak of teams to have a running back with more than 10 points, but it wasn’t Crowell. No, instead it was the running back who the Browns refuse to give more carries to. On the season, there’s been just two games where the Browns have given Johnson more than 13 touches, yet he’s totaled 80 or more total yards four different times, whereas Crowell has done that twice while averaging nearly 15 touches per game. Oh, and Johnson also has just as many rushing touchdowns as Crowell. Of the two, I’d prefer Johnson as he has the higher ceiling and this game-script should fit his role very well. He caught nine passes against them the last time they played. Consider him a high-end RB3, while Crowell is still in the RB3 conversation with his volume.
Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard: If you’re looking at the stat sheet every week, it’s understandable why you’d be down on Mixon, because his numbers are putrid. He’s yet to top 62 rushing yards despite totaling at least 13 carries in five of the last eight games. We knew the Bengals offensive line was going to have issues, but nobody could’ve predicted just 2.9 yards per carry for Mixon. He totaled just 29 yards on 17 carries against the Browns the last time they played, which doesn’t give you much confidence in this matchup, but knowing he’s going to get at least 18 touches, he belongs in the RB2 conversation. Many people don’t realize that simply scoring a touchdown with 18 touches will likely boost a player into the RB1 territory for that particular week. Do you mean to tell me that it’s unlikely Mixon scores at home in a game they’re favored to win by more than a touchdown? He’s a solid RB2 this week. The Bengals have said they want to involve Bernard more, but their actions say differently, because he’s failed to top three carries in any game since the start of Week 3. He’s just a desperation RB4 who might see some garbage time work.
WRs
Corey Coleman: He’s now played in just three games this season and has totaled at least 8.0 fantasy points in two of them, including the Jaguars last week. He was just the second wide receiver to total more than 70 yards against them this year; the only other one was Antonio Brown. His targets have escalated in every game, too, topping out at 11 last week. Because of that, he needs to be considered as a WR3 who’ll have limited scoring opportunities in this offense. He’s played almost exclusively on the perimeter which means he’ll match-up with Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones (if he plays). That’s one of the better tandems in the league, as they’ve allowed just one wide receiver to total more than 75 yards against them this year. I’d like him more if I knew Kizer could actually throw touchdowns.
A.J. Green: This is obviously a great matchup for Green, though for whatever reason, he plays better on the road than he does at home. In 46 home games, he’s averaged 4.8 receptions for 71.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns, while in 49 road games, he’s averaged 6.3 receptions for 93.6 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. Browns top cornerback Jason McCourty has played well this year, but is really no match for Green in one-on-one situations. He beat him for 63 yards and a touchdown earlier this season on just seven targets. Green has now scored in six of the last eight games since Bill Lazor took over as the offensive coordinator. He’s a must-play WR1.
Brandon LaFell: He’s now seen 37 targets in the last six games, an average of 6.2 per game, making him somewhat fantasy relevant. The last time they played the Browns, he saw just three targets, but knowing his role is a bit different now, we must give more consideration. The Browns have allowed nine different wide receivers score touchdowns against them this season and none of them scored more than one, so it’s possible he finds the end zone for the third time in six games. If you’re desperately looking for a wide receiver on the waiver wire to plug into your lineup with a good shot at a touchdown, LaFell makes sense.
TEs
David Njoku and Seth DeValve: With most tight ends, you start them because the other team allows a lot of touchdowns, or because that particular offense is expected to score a lot of points. You don’t get either of those things with this tandem, as the Bengals have allowed just three TE1 performances on the season and the Browns are only slated to score 15 points. Njoku saw a season-low one target in Week 11 with Coleman back in the lineup, making it easier to ignore him this week as nothing more than a low-ceiling touchdown-dependent TE2.
Tyler Kroft: Whew, thank goodness Kroft scored last week. It was a great matchup against the Broncos, but it was a shame to see him only garner three targets in such a good matchup. In his last game against the Browns, he led all tight ends with 68 yards and two touchdowns. We know this is a great matchup for tight ends, as they’ve allowed at least 10.6 PPR points to 8-of-10 starting tight ends. They’ve now allowed tight end touchdowns in three straight games, putting Kroft in the TE1 conversation and one that I’d feel comfortable streaming.
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets
Total: 40.0
Line: CAR by 4.5
QBs
Cam Newton: What better way to come out of your bye than to play a Jets team that’s steadily allowed top-12 performances this year. There have been just three quarterbacks to finish outside of QB1 range, though here’s the list of them: Blake Bortles (QB19), Jay Cutler (QB26), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB26). Newton has now totaled at least 20 fantasy points in five of the last seven games, thanks large in part to his rushing. The Panthers have allowed him to roam free once again, which is great news for fantasy, as it’s what put him in the high-end QB1 conversation for multiple years. He’s now rushed for at least 44 yards in six of the last seven games, including each of the last five games. There have been five quarterbacks to rush for at least 29 yards against the Jets, which can only be considered good news. His confidence is sky-high and he’s getting Greg Olsen back this week, which puts him in the high-end QB1 conversation this week.
Josh McCown: After a lot of fantasy owners trusted McCown to stream in 1QB leagues in Week 10, he let them down with his worst performance since Week 4. The Panthers haven’t been a daunting defense to play against for opposing quarterbacks, as 6-of-10 have thrown for at least two touchdowns. They’ve held all but two quarterbacks to 229 yards or less, though, making them sort of a bend-but-don’t-break defense against fantasy quarterbacks. To be fair, they have played some very good quarterbacks this year, so seeing them rank sixth against fantasy quarterbacks is rather remarkable. It’s not a matchup where you’d trust McCown in cash lineups, and the Panthers aren’t the type to allow McCown a 300-yard, three-touchdown performance, putting him in the middling QB2 territory.
RBs
Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart: Everyone thought the Jets would be a team to target with fantasy running backs, but that’s been the furthest thing from the truth, as they’ve allowed just four top-18 PPR performances through 10 games. Every single one of those running backs to break into that territory totaled at least 49 yards receiving, something Stewart has no possibility of doing. McCaffrey, on the other hand, has hit that number multiple times, making him appealing in this matchup. On the year, the Jets have allowed 3.7 yards per carry and just four rushing touchdowns, so it’s not one to expect even flex-type numbers out of Stewart; he’s just a boring RB4. Oddly enough, those four running backs to finish in the top-18 were also the only ones to record more than 26 receiving yards against the Jets, so they haven’t been brutal against receiving backs, either. McCaffrey still needs to be played as a high-end RB2 because of how often he’s targeted. They’ve also given him a few carries inside the five their last few games, which gives him a much higher ceiling.
Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, and Elijah McGuire: As of now, we have no idea if Forte will play this week, though it didn’t sound great when Forte was asked about it before their bye week. He said that his knee had been swelling and it was getting difficult to play through it. Knowing that he’s almost 32 years old, it makes no sense for him to make it any worse. Because of that, Powell should be the team leader in carries, though it’s not a great spot for him. The Panthers have yet to allow a running back more than 82 yards, and even that came essentially on one carry to Kenyan Drake in their last game. There have been five running backs who’ve totaled four or more receptions against them, though, so there’s room for him to do some work through the air. In PPR formats, Powell can be played as a low-end RB2, while he looks more like an RB3 in standard. McGuire has a role if Forte is out, though it’s not a role that I’d want to trust him in, making him a risky RB4. If Forte plays, Powell becomes a risky RB3, while Forte himself would be an RB4.
WRs
Devin Funchess: After his biggest performance of the year, Funchess will play against Morris Claiborne and the Jets secondary. The upside to Funchess being the No. 1 wide receiver is that he will see plenty of targets, but the downside is that he sees shadow cornerbacks in coverage. Claiborne has been really good in coverage this year, allowing just a 56 percent catch rate, 12.0 yards per reception, and no touchdowns on 41 targets. Knowing that, it’s difficult to say that Funchess is anything more than a volume WR3 who needs to score in order to hit WR2 value. It’ll be interesting to see how the offense works with Greg Olsen back on the field. Russell Shepard actually has the best matchup on the field, but I couldn’t trust him in fantasy circles.
Robby Anderson: It was a bad time for the Jets to go to their bye week, as Anderson had scored in four straight games going into it. The chemistry between him and McCown has grown, as he hasn’t even needed a high number of targets to produce. There’s been just one game since Week 1 where Anderson has seen more than seven targets, which isn’t great against a Panthers secondary that’s defending wide receivers very well. They are the only team remaining in the NFL that’s yet to allow a top-12 wide receiver performance this season, limiting Anderson’s ceiling. He’s still in the high-end WR3 conversation because of how well he and McCown are connecting, but it’s not a week to be thrilled about him.
Jermaine Kearse: He’s gone back to being Jermaine Kearse, if that makes sense to you. He’s totaled more than 42 yards just once in his last eight games, making him a touchdown-or-bust candidate. Knowing that there’ve been six quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns against them, it’s not the most unlikely scenario. There’s probably better options available on the waiver wire, though, as he’s just a WR5.
TEs
Greg Olsen: I’m going to assume that Olsen jumps right back in and plays near a full complement of snaps this week, as he was reportedly ready to play over a week ago. The Jets have been a solid team to stream tight ends against, as they have allowed 6-of-10 tight ends to total at least 47 yards, and four of those tight ends have scored a touchdown. Provided that we see Olsen practice in full towards the end of the week, feel confident inserting him into your lineup as a TE1.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: He’s been relatively boring from a yardage perspective this year, as he’s topped 46 yards just once, though that game did come right before the bye week. The Panthers have been one of the better teams in the NFL against tight ends, allowing just 37.2 yards per game to them, second-fewest in the NFL. They have allowed five touchdowns to them, though, including two of them to both Zach Ertz and Darren Fells. He’s someone who’s been seeing plenty of red zone targets, so he’s not the worst player to plug-in and hope for a touchdown. He’s in the low-end TE1 conversation.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 44.0
Line: TEN by 4.0
QBs
Marcus Mariota: It wasn’t a good week to be on primetime for Mariota, as he played arguably what might have been his worst game of the season. I say arguably because he didn’t throw a single touchdown against the Browns. Despite that, I’m going to call him a good play once again this weekend, especially for those who play DFS. Keep in mind that even though he threw for just one touchdown and four interceptions, he still posted 21.7 DraftKings points, showing what his legs can do for his fantasy day. The Colts have been a defense to target with quarterbacks all year, as 9-of-10 have finished inside the top-15 for the week. Five quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns and two quarterbacks (Kizer, Wilson) have run for 38 or more yards AND a touchdown. With Corey Davis, Rishard Matthews, Eric Decker, and Delanie Walker all healthy, there’s really no reason he shouldn’t excel in this game, unless you believe he’s just not good in general, which I don’t believe. He’s on the QB1 radar this week, and he comes with a super-high floor.
Jacoby Brissett: (Note: He is still in the concussion protocol and may not play) This is a rematch between these two teams, as Brissett totaled 212 yards and one touchdown in their first matchup, though it should have been two touchdowns if you recall because Donte Moncrief dropped a ball in the end zone. The Titans secondary has played slightly better as the year’s gone on, but they’re still a defense to target with the opponent’s passing game. This game will take place in a dome, which should help Brissett’s mobility, as well as T.Y. Hilton‘s speed, something he didn’t take advantage of in their first matchup. Knowing how well the Titans stop the run, Brissett should be able to post respectable QB2 numbers. I’d expect somewhere in the range of 250 yards with 1-2 touchdown passes.
RBs
DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry: The last time these two teams played, we saw Henry severely outplay Murray, totaling 131 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. In that game, Murray totaled just 40 yards on 12 carries, though he did find the end zone. If you watched the Thursday night game with the new camera angle, you were able to see Murray’s poor vision from the Madden angle, as he picked the wrong lane multiple times. Henry is trying to bounce a lot of his runs outside, which is a bad habit, though he’s broke a few of them for long touchdowns. Against the Colts who have allowed seven RB1 performances, you can argue that both should have value. Murray typically offers the edge due to his passing game involvement, but he shouldn’t be needed there a whole lot in this game. Since that Colts game back in Week 6, Murray has totaled 61 carries to Henry’s 58 carries, though Henry has outgained him on those carries, 254-170. Consider Murray a solid RB2 who should have a good shot to score, while Henry is a high-end RB3 in this contest.
Frank Gore and Marlon Mack: Coming out of their bye week, it’ll be interesting to see what the Colts do with their timeshare between Gore and Mack. In the four weeks leading up to their bye, Mack had totaled 32 carries and saw 15 targets, while Gore totaled 59 carries and saw 9 targets. That’s a 60/40 split. This game-script should favor Mack’s role, though it’s hard to say he’ll have the touch advantage with the way the Colts are run. Gore is that boring RB4 who needs to score a touchdown in order to get you more than eight points. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since back in Week 3, and the Titans have allowed just one rushing touchdown in their last six games. Mack is the high-risk/high-reward RB4 and the one I’d prefer to play in this situation. If he busts, you’re looking at three points instead of the six that Gore might get. Give me the upside.
WRs
Rishard Matthews: The Colts let go of Vontae Davis before the bye and they likely did so because Rashaan Melvin has been playing competent football this year. He’s seen a very-high 54 targets in coverage, but has allowed just 29 catches (53.7 percent catch rate) for 328 yards and two touchdowns on them. He actually shadowed Antonio Brown on the perimeter in Week 10 and limited him to three catches for 47 yards, though I don’t see him shadowing in this matchup. Matthews and Davis alternate sides quite a bit, so it’s likely he stays at LCB, which would be against Matthews the most often. He’s not a shutdown corner, so Matthews is still in the WR3 conversation, but his long touchdowns can’t continue forever.
Corey Davis: He’s going to see Pierre Desir in coverage quite a bit in this game, a former fourth-round pick from 2014 who has allowed a touchdown every 12.7 targets in his career, including one in each of his last three games. He’s seen an average of 8.0 targets in the four full games he’s played, so the volume is there, though Davis has been unable to overcome the tough matchups. This is not a tough matchup. If Davis can’t perform as a WR3 in this game, I’ll be concerned (I really won’t, but I’m saying that because I’m that confident this week).
Eric Decker: His biggest game of the year came against the Colts, as he caught seven passes for 88 yards, though that was with Davis out of the lineup. In the four games Davis has been in the lineup, Decker has combined for 18 targets, 11 catches, 87 yards, and one touchdown. That would be good for ONE game. He’s not going to have any success unless he scores a touchdown in this game, something he’s done just once this year, making him a WR5/WR6.
T.Y. Hilton: This is one of the last time’s you’ll be able to use Hilton confidently, as his schedule gets brutal starting in Week 13. The Titans cornerbacks held him to one catch for 19 yards back in Week 6, but he saw just four targets in that game. The Colts said prior to their Week 9 game against the Texans that they wanted to get him more involved and he saw nine targets, totaling 175 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans have allowed six elite performances (20-plus PPR points) to wide receivers this year and eight WR1 performances, both the highest number in the NFL. Hilton has always played better on turf, so feel free to start him as a high-upside WR2 who feels like a WR1 this week. I should note that Brissett would need to play, because if it’s Scott Tolzien, we’re all in trouble.
Donte Moncrief: Maybe the Colts should’ve traded him at the trade deadline, as they’re doing nothing but killing their chances of keeping him in Indianapolis. He’s averaging just 3.6 targets per game, including just four targets in the last three games combined. The last time these two teams played, he totaled five catches for 67 yards, something that’s possible happens again with a touchdown, making him an interesting low-owned option in tournaments. He’s off the radar in season-long leagues, though.
TEs
Delanie Walker: It was good to see Walker heavily involved in the gameplan against the Steelers because they had done well against tight ends on the season, so to see him turn in a six-catch, 92-yard performance was reassuring. It was a season-high in yardage, though he’s still yet to find the end zone this year (through the air). The Colts have been one of the best defenses against tight ends this season, allowing just one top-10 performance. But here’s the thing – their competition has been among the worst in football. Jimmy Graham and Walker are the only tight ends they’ve played who are top-15 at the position. I’m going to say Walker should be started as a TE1 and one that I’d expect to come with a very high floor.
Jack Doyle: There have been two games where Doyle has simply disappeared this year and it’s left a lasting impression going into their bye week. He totaled just two catches for nine yards in Week 10 against the Steelers, though it didn’t help that the Colts were up for most of that game, limiting the volume. Prior to that game, he’d seen at least seven targets in each of his last five games. Knowing that volume is there, we’ll have to assume that was a fluke. The Titans have allowed six TE1 performances this season, including two of their last three games to Ben Watson and Jesse James. Doyle is right back in the TE1 conversation.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Total: 48.5
Line: ATL by 8.5
QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Let’s not go over the top with Fitzgerald, as it was just one game against the hopeless Dolphins, though it was promising to see he could still get it done in a good matchup. The Falcons present an average matchup, as they’ve held all but one quarterback to 264 yards or less, and that was Aaron Rodgers. It’s not all bad, though, as they’ve allowed 5-of-10 quarterbacks to throw for two touchdowns, though nobody has been able to throw three against them. Knowing that Doug Martin has forgotten how to run the ball, the Bucs will be forced to throw a bit more than most teams. Because of that, Fitzpatrick should be considered a semi-high floor QB2 in this matchup. Knowing that the Falcons haven’t allowed a massive game to some really good quarterbacks, Fitzpatrick is off my DFS tournament radar.
Matt Ryan: Hello, Mr. Efficiency. Despite not throwing the ball more than 29 times in three of the last four games, Ryan has two touchdowns in each of the games. He’s still yet to throw for more than two touchdowns this season, but all of his vitals remain strong. He’s completing 67 percent of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempt and has almost a two to one touchdown to interception ratio. His quarterback rating (which has flaws in small sample sizes) is the third-highest of his career. He’s played good football, but he’s averaging just 32.6 attempts per game, limiting his fantasy ceiling. Just four quarterbacks have thrown the ball more than 33 times against the Bucs, which falls in line with that limited ceiling he’s shown. They have allowed at least one passing touchdown in every game, which gives Ryan the floor you want most of the time. In two games against them last year, he threw for 334 and 344 yards, with a total of six touchdowns, so he’s comfortable against them. Consider Ryan a high-floor QB1 this week.
RBs
Doug Martin and Charles Sims: I tweeted out earlier this week that Martin has totaled just 861 yards on 288 carries over his last 17 games (spanning over three years), good for just 2.99 yards per carry. Even worse, he’s had just one game over 3.9 yards per carry. That’s extremely hard to do. I mean, even Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy had one game each this year. It’s gotten to the point where the Bucs can straight up bench him. It’s kind of the feeling you get when you put Isaiah Crowell in your lineup… not great, Bob. Over the last four weeks, the Falcons have allowed just 247 rushing yards on 77 carries (3.21 YPC) and one touchdown. There’s little to get excited about with Martin, as he’s given us no reason to. He’s also not involved in the passing game, somewhere the Falcons can be exploited. There have been 10 running backs who’ve totaled at least 28 receiving yards, so Sims isn’t the worst play for desperate PPR owners, though he’s just an RB4. Consider Martin a high-end RB3 because of how gross the running back position is, but don’t be shocked if the Bucs try something else because he’s not working.
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman: It was shocking to see Coleman struggle against a Kam Chancellor-less Seahawks defense, and I’m not even a Coleman guy, I just know how much Chancellor means to that defense. Freeman may return from his concussion for this game, though it’s likely to be more of a timeshare than most want to admit even if he does return. The Bucs have been a solid run defense for a while, anchored by Gerald McCoy, but they’ve showed some weaknesses this year against formidable opponents. Since the start of Week 5, the only teams not to average at least 4.6 yards per carry were the Panthers and Jets. They’ve allowed multiple rushing touchdowns to both Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy this season, so there’s a high ceiling involved here. Should Freeman miss another week, Coleman needs to be plugged in as a high-end RB2/low-end RB1. If Freeman does suit up, Coleman belongs in the low-end RB2/flex conversation. As for Freeman himself, I’d look at him as an RB2 more than the must-play RB1 he usually is.
WRs
Mike Evans: He blew what could have been a much bigger game, as he dropped a short pass in the end zone with no defender even close. Instead, DeSean Jackson got the touchdown. Had he caught that, he would’ve finished with 100 yards and a touchdown. This week he’ll have a tougher matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed just four top-18 performances to wide receivers this year, and three of them were of the fast/slippery variety. They’ve also held some really good receivers in check as of late, as Doug Baldwin finished WR31, Dez Bryant as WR49, and Devin Funchess to WR23. Evans has the talent to overcome tough matchups and it was good to see Fitzpatrick target him 10 times last week. Plug him in as a WR1 as you always do, as he tortured this defense last year for 5/99/1 and 11/150/2. They appear to be a better unit than last year, but it’s clear they have issues defending him.
DeSean Jackson: Knowing that the Falcons have struggled a bit with speedy wide receivers obviously gives Jackson some additional attention in fantasy lineups, though it hurts that Fitzpatrick is still under center. On attempts over 20 yards this season, he’s completed just 6-of-16 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions. He doesn’t have the arm strength to let Jackson run under it, leading me to think of him as a WR3 who has limited upside.
Julio Jones: There are some out there saying Jones is “just a name” in fantasy now and that he doesn’t produce. I’d argue that he’s the best wide receiver in the game and that sometimes that just doesn’t translate to success in fantasy. Jones is still the No. 15 wide receiver in PPR formats and ranks fifth in yards, providing you with serious consistency. There was just one game this year where he’s finished outside the top 38 wide receivers and that was the one he got hurt and left the game in the first half. He may not be Antonio Brown in fantasy, but his floor cannot be understated. The Bucs have allowed four top-eight performances to wide receivers this year, including Kenny Stills‘ seven-catch, 180-yard, one-touchdown performance last week. Jones oddly scored in both of their games against the Bucs last year and this secondary has definitely not improved since that time. You can do what you want, but Jones is in my No. 2 wide receiver for Week 12.
Mohamed Sanu: He scored last week, hiding what’s been a problem for the last three weeks, his targets. He’s totaled just 11 targets over the last three games, which has led to yardage totals of just 23, 29, and 34 yards. With the limited volume in Atlanta, it’s hard to like Sanu as anything more than a solid WR4 outside of obvious great matchups in the slot. The Bucs have issues in the slot, so this is one of those games. Vernon Hargreaves was forced to miss last week, leaving Robert McClain to cover the slot where he allowed 6/95/0 on seven targets in coverage. Even if Hargreaves plays, he may be at less than 100 percent, so Sanu is of the higher end WR4’s this week.
TEs
Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard: It’s clear that Fitzpatrick and Brate have no chemistry, as he’s seen just 13 of Fitzpatrick’s 119 targets this season, a 10.9 percent target share, a far cry off his 15.8 percent share with Winston. Howard has played more snaps all year, but Brate was the favorite in the passing game. Week 11 was the first time he out-targeted Brate, so we don’t want to take too much from that, but it’s something to pay attention to. The Falcons have not been a team to target with tight ends this year, though Jimmy Graham would disagree after posting the TE1 performance last week. They were awful against tight ends last year, but have allowed just three top-10 performances in 2017. I’d like to give this a week to see how their timeshare plays out. Both are out of the TE1 conversation for the time being.
Austin Hooper: Every time I trust Hooper, he disappoints. In fact, he scored negative points in standard leagues last week with his two-catch, -1-yard performance. The low volume of the passing attack as a whole is concerning, as is the fact that Sanu has a great matchup this week. It seems both of them cancel out each other’s potential, so this would seem to be a week to fade Hooper. The Bucs have played against four tight ends who have seen five or more targets, but have yet to allow a tight end finish better than the TE8 in any week. They’ve allowed just three touchdowns to tight ends on the year as well, so Hooper isn’t someone I’d like to stream this week.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Total: 48.0
Line: NE by 17.0
