New York Giants at Oakland Raiders
Total: 42.0
Line: OAK by 7.0
QBs
Geno Smith: Over the last two weeks without Sterling Shepard, Eli Manning had completed just 32-of-62 passes for 318 yards and no touchdowns. Those numbers wouldn’t even be good for one game, let alone two of them combined. While he has lost his top two (and maybe top three) of his options, it was only a matter of time before the Giants were forced to look and see what they have in rookie Davis Webb… oh, wait. They are playing Geno Smith? Nevermind, we’ve seen that act before. Carry on. But in reality, you aren’t going to use Smith, even in a good matchup with the Raiders, as his top wide receiver is Roger Lewis. It also sounds like Webb has a chance to play if Smith should struggle, meaning you shouldn’t trust Smith outside of 2QB leagues, as his rushing yardage will at least prop up his fantasy floor.
Derek Carr: It appears as of the time I’m writing this that both Michael Crabtree (suspension) and Amari Cooper (concussion, ankle) will miss this game, meaning he’ll be dealing to Cordarrelle Patterson, Johnny Holton, and Seth Roberts as his top three receivers. Whew. The Giants have been a slot machine for fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but I have my doubts about Carr who has finished with more than 13 fantasy points just twice since Week 2, and that was with Cooper and Crabtree. Look for them to lean on the run with Carr throwing as little as possible, despite the Giants being weak against the pass. He’s only in play in 2QB leagues this week.
RBs
Orleans Darkwa: After totaling at least 70 rushing yards in three straight games and four of his last five, Darkwa busted against the Redskins in Week 12, totaling just 30 yards on 11 carries. It’s just one game so we don’t want to overreact, but this is a very unstable franchise right now that can do some odd things, like pull Darkwa to play Paul Perkins or Wayne Gallman just because what they’ve done to this point hasn’t worked. Now, we can’t expect that because Darkwa has played well overall, but knowing it’s a possibility, avoid him in your DFS cash lineups. The Raiders have actually held five of their last six opponents to 89 or less rushing yards, a major improvement from what they were allowing in the first half of the season. Knowing that Smith is the quarterback helps Darkwa, as mobile quarterbacks pose another threat to opposing defenses, therefore increasing the space the running back should have. I’d play him as a high-end RB3 in season-long, though he’s only a tournament option in DFS.
Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, and DeAndre Washington: I’ve listed all three running backs because I think it’s very likely they use them a lot more in the passing game this week, knowing they’re short on the wide receiver front. Lynch has looked solid the last three weeks and always seems to have a little more pep in his step when at home, so feel free to start him as a low-end RB2 against a Giants team that has allowed 119.5 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks, including three rushing touchdowns. As for Richard and Washington, it’s close, as Washington is the seemingly preferred option in the passing game, seeing at least three targets in six of the last 10 games. Still, they are nothing more than desperation RB4’s in PPR leagues who offer little upside with Lynch getting the goal-line work.
WRs
Roger Lewis, Tavarres King, and Travis Rudolph: You’d think that at least one wide receiver would have value in such a good matchup, but there isn’t one of them I’d trust outside of a dart-throw in a DFS tournament lineup. Over the last two weeks without Shepard, there hasn’t been one of them with more than three receptions, or 55 yards, or a single touchdown. Smith isn’t an upgrade on Manning, though it’s hard to get much worse than it’s been. If you’re searching for one to play, I suppose it’d be King because the Raiders struggle to defend speed.
Cordarrelle Patterson: He’s been getting a bigger role as the season’s gone on, so seeing him in the No. 1 role shouldn’t be too much of a shock to his system. If you go back Week 8, he played a season-high 88 percent of the snaps, so it’s not like he hasn’t done it before. It’s also easy to forget that Patterson is a former first-round draft pick who had expectations through the roof as an electrifying player who could take it to the house on any play. Now, that time has passed for those expectations, but against the Giants without Janoris Jenkins, he can be a factor. There’ve been nine different receivers to finish inside the top-24 against the Giants, and that was with Jenkins, so the ceiling is there. You don’t want to automatically assume he sees 8-10 targets, but to expect anywhere from 5-7 would be a solid place to start. He’s a WR4 this week and one that I’d consider using in a pinch.
Johnny Holton: He’s only seen six targets on the year, but those targets have gone a long way. He’s caught four of them for a total of 161 yards and two touchdowns. That’s ridiculous. To know that he’s playing a Giants team that’s been burned by the deep ball as of late, he’s got a shot to make a splash here. He was clocked by NFL’s NextGenStats as one of the top-10 fastest players in 2016. He’s going to be a high-risk/high-upside WR5 for this game.
Seth Roberts: He’s been kind of forgotten this year despite the Raiders signing him to a contract extension this year. There has been just one game since Week 5 where he’s caught more than three passes, and that’s likely to do with a lot of those over-the-middle targets going to Jared Cook. Roberts was someone who scored five touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, but he’s failed to score since Week 1. The Giants slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is the best one they have on the roster, so I’m not expecting much to change with Roberts this week.
TEs
Evan Engram: There are some fantasy owners already asking me this week whether or not they should bench Engram. Let me be clear about this… No. He’s hit a slump, but unless you have Gronk, Kelce, or Ertz, they all have slumps. Heck, even those guys have had down games this year. The only concern I have is about Smith, not the matchup. The Raiders struggle with speed on the outside and deep over the middle of the field; it’s the reason we’ve seen five different tight ends finish with more than 55 yards against them. With Shepard appearing to be doubtful, Engram should see a decent number of targets, as he has all year. There have been just two games where he saw less than six targets, something that’s hard to find at the position. Smith did throw 11 touchdowns to tight ends over 2013 and 2014, and that’s despite them being Jeff Cumberland, Kellen Winslow (at the very end of his career), and Jace Amaro. Play Engram as a TE1 this week.
Jared Cook: It’s so funny how everything comes full-circle sometimes. Earlier in the season, I was having a chat with my boss who had taken a look at my rest of season rankings and noticed that Cook was down at TE25. He said, “I know that you don’t love Cook, but TE25?” I responded saying that we’ve been down this path before with him and that I’d rather have someone like Hunter Henry who I know can break out. As the season went on, I kept moving Cook up, as he’d been seeing more and more targets. Here we are again, as Cook has now totaled just three catches for 37 yards as we near the fantasy playoffs, giving you zero confidence inserting him into your lineup. However, this is the perfect storm. No Cooper or Crabtree and playing the Giants, who have allowed the most points to tight ends this season, including touchdowns in 9-of-11 games, something Cook hasn’t done since Week 3. If you aren’t trusting him in this matchup, you might as well drop him. Given the circumstances, I’m recommending you play him as a TE1. He’s going to see at least 6-8 targets against arguably the league’s worst defense against the position. Let’s hold hands as we do this.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Total: 48.0
Line: NO by 4.0
QBs
Cam Newton: One of the bigger games of the week from an NFL standpoint, the Panthers and the Saints are playing for first place in the NFC South, while the Falcons are just one game back from both of them. The Saints are likely hoping to get Marshon Lattimore back into the lineup, which would massively change the outlook for Newton. He’s likely to be without Greg Olsen for this game, leaving him with just Devin Funchess and Russell Shepard as his top two options. If Lattimore plays, he’d essentially remove Funchess from the arsenal. That won’t stop Newton from scoring fantasy points, though, as he’s now rushed for at least 28 yards in each of his last six games, including 44 or more yards in five of them. That’s another touchdown per week just from his yardage, not including the five rushing touchdowns he has on the season. Earlier in the year, he struggled mightily against them, throwing for just 167 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. That was also before he started running the ball a lot, so you need to re-adjust your expectations. If Lattimore misses the game, Newton is a must-play QB1, where if he plays, Newton is just an iffy low-end QB1 against a team that’s allowed just five passing touchdowns in their last seven games with Lattimore on the field (for the whole game).
Drew Brees: This game is in the Superdome where we know Brees plays lights out football, and the Panthers are coming off a game where they allowed 307 yards and three touchdowns to Josh McCown and the Jets. When they played outdoors back in Week 3, Brees pounced them for 220 yards and three touchdowns en route to his third-best game of the season from a fantasy perspective. He crushed them back in 2016 as well, totaling 750 yards and six touchdowns in the two games they played. Yeah, that’s pretty good. It’s clear that the Saints simply know how to gameplan for the Panthers. Knowing that and the fact that the Panthers have been great against the run, this sets up well for Brees to finish as a QB1. He only had to throw the ball 29 times against them in Week 3 to reach his 20.8 fantasy points, making him a great DFS tournament option.
RBs
Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart: Over the last three weeks, here’s how the Panthers backfield breaks down: Stewart 43 touches (43 rush, 0 rec), McCaffrey 37 touches (27 rush, 10 rec). Why? I do not know. Stewart is still averaging just 3.2 yards per carry on the season, and although McCaffrey’s 3.5 isn’t that much better, he’s at least trending in the right direction. Whatever the case, this is not a Stewart game while in the Superdome. There have been just four running backs to score against the Saints this year, and three of them saw at least 17 carries (the other one was Tarik Cohen). Stewart has hit that number just twice in the last 10 games and game-script is not likely to be in his favor. On the flip-side, McCaffrey totaled nine catches for 101 yards against them last game, totaling 60.5 percent of Newton’s passing yards. McCaffrey should be played as a high-end RB2 in standard leagues and an RB1 in PPR formats. Stewart is nothing more than a touchdown-hopeful RB4.
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara: This duo is really something. If one isn’t hurting you, the other is killing you, that’s just the way it works. When they played back in Week 3, Ingram finished with 86 total yards on 16 touches, while Kamara totaled 42 yards on five touches, but if you recall, that was back when Adrian Peterson was on the roster. The Panthers have allowed just one top-16 running back all season, easily the best mark in the NFL. And keep in mind that the only one to hit that mark was Kenyan Drake, who needed to break a 66-yard touchdown in order to get there. Both Ingram and Kamara are capable, but this is maybe their toughest test yet. No running back has been able to top 82 yards on the ground against them, though there have been six running backs who have totaled at least 30 yards through the air. If you’re asking me to pick one, it’d be Kamara this week, especially in PPR formats. With the way this offense is moving the ball, they’re both being started, though you should expect lower-end RB1 numbers this week.
WRs
Devin Funchess: He overcame a tough matchup last week and played much better than I thought he would, finishing with his first 100-yard game of the season and the second one of his career. While I was also concerned about Greg Olsen coming back and stealing targets, that’s no longer the case. This game rests on one thing and one thing only. Is Marshon Lattimore playing? If he is, Funchess is just a low-end WR3. If he’s out again, you have to play Funchess as a WR2. He saw 10 targets in their first matchup, but finished with just four catches for 58 yards, though he was playing a different role at that point. Pay attention to the Saints injury report as the game nears.
Michael Thomas: It’s beyond bad luck now, as Thomas has gone 55 receptions without scoring. It’s going to smack you right in the face when it happens, too, similar to the way Julio Jones just did. You bet on good players who get targeted a lot in fantasy football, and Thomas checks those boxes. There is an explosion boiling under the surface. Are the Panthers the team it happens against? Well, they are a team he scored against back in Week 3, while totaling seven catches for 87 yards, and yes, that was with James Bradberry shadowing him in coverage. Bradberry hasn’t been as impressive as he was his rookie year, but he’s still what I would consider an above average NFL cornerback. Thomas is more than that, so feel free to slot him in as a WR1 this week.
Ted Ginn: He already got his ‘revenge game’ out of the way when he posted 44 yards and a touchdown against them in Carolina. The turf in New Orleans does nothing but highlight his speed, though his performance home and away has been similar, though he’s scored twice in five games at home. The Panthers will use Bradberry to shadow Thomas, leaving Ginn with Daryl Worley in coverage, the guy who allowed two touchdowns in his coverage the last time these two teams played. Ginn is a high-upside WR3 this week.
TEs
Ed Dickson: Did you know that Dickson still holds the highest yardage total among all tight ends this year? His 175-yard performance is still 42 more yards than the next closest one (Kelce). Now think about the fact that Dickson hasn’t totaled more than 36 yards in any of the next six games. Sad times, right? The Saints have been really good against tight ends this season, allowing just two top-10 performances against them, and both required a touchdown (one was Gronk). Knowing that Dickson has scored one touchdown on 42 targets this year, it’s difficult to see him producing TE1 numbers in this matchup, though it’s not out of the realm of possibilities with the limited passing options available to Newton, who may have to throw more than normal. The Saints have allowed two of their three highest yardage totals to tight ends in the last two weeks, so maybe the cornerback issues have trickled down into the tight end position. He’s still just a TE2 knowing what we do about him as a player.
Coby Fleener: He’s now played 22 or less snaps in six of the last seven games, making him an afterthought in fantasy, even with Brees throwing to him. The Panthers haven’t been great against the tight end position this year, but that didn’t stop Fleener from posting just one catch for 21 yards in their Week 3 meeting, you know, back when he was relevant. He’s off the radar until he plays more snaps.
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
Total: 47.5
Line: PHI by 5.5
QBs
Carson Wentz: It’s really remarkable what Wentz has done, though you have to worry about hard regression coming up for him. He ranks 12th in pass attempts, 11th in yardage, but 1st in touchdowns. His touchdown rate of 7.9 percent is of epic proportions, as most ELITE quarterbacks are somewhere in the range of 5-6 percent. With that being said, Wentz is a must-start every single week until he gives you a reason not to. Despite losing his Pro-Bowl starting left tackle, Wentz has thrown nine touchdowns over the last three weeks with zero interceptions. Ok, I’m done gushing. It would have been a test for him and the offense this week, had the entire Legion of Boom been available, but this Seahawks defense is a shell of what it was. It’s pointless to run through numbers, because the defense is different than it was all season. Going into Seattle is typically the hardest place to play for opponents, but they’ve allowed over a touchdown more at home than on the road this year (23.2 to 16.0). Again, you don’t need me to tell you to start Wentz.
Russell Wilson: It’s a battle of the titans this week, as both of these quarterbacks are potential MVPs this year. It’s gone overlooked, but Wilson is the reason the Seahawks are still alive in the NFL West playoff race. He’s the No. 1 fantasy quarterback by a decent margin over Wentz, and large in-part to the fact that he’s running more than he has in a while. His 401 rushing yards are almost double what his total in 2016 was, and he’s also run for three touchdowns, giving you a fantasy floor even if he has a bad day throwing the ball. But that’s the thing – he’s slinging the ball all over the field as well, throwing for 15 touchdowns in his last six games. The Eagles have been burying quarterbacks as of late, holding C.J. Beathard, Brock Osweiler, Dak Prescott, and Mitch Trubisky to less than 11 fantasy points in each of the last four weeks. I know, I know, those guys aren’t in Wilson’s territory. It’s still impressive when you can do that for an entire month. Prior to that, the Eagles had allowed 6-of-7 quarterbacks to finish as top-12 options in fantasy, though nobody finished better than QB5. The closest comparison that the Eagles have played to Wilson is Cam Newton, who threw for 239 yards and a touchdown, then rushed for 71 yards and another touchdown. Wilson is a QB1 on Sunday night football.
RBs
LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement: Notice who I listed first here? That wasn’t on accident, as the Eagles trade for Ajayi looks like somewhat of a head-scratcher now that he’s totaled just 20 carries through three games with the team. In fact, his carries have gone down each week, while Blount’s have gone up. In all seriousness, fantasy aside, Blount has played better than him this year. This isn’t a backfield you want to be attached to as we head into the fantasy playoffs, as it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Ajayi comes out and gets 15 carries this week. Corey Clement also isn’t going to go away, as he’s now totaled 182 yards on 32 carries (5.69 YPC) with three touchdowns over the last four weeks. The Seahawks haven’t completely lost their run defense, surprisingly, as I thought the loss of Kam Chancellor would bury them. But they’ve allowed just 90 yards on 36 carries to Carlos Hyde and Tevin Coleman the last two weeks, so it’s definitely not bad. In regard to how they’ll handle these running backs – your guess is as good as mine, though you should bet on Blount with the way he’s been running the ball. None of them should be trusted as anything more than an RB3 in this matchup.
Eddie Lacy and J.D. McKissic: Earlier this week on the podcast, Bobby asked me how much I would spend to snag Lacy off the waiver wire. My answer was “nothing.” It goes back to how I’ve felt about the Seahawks run game from the preseason – that their run-blocking wasn’t going to be good enough to create a consistent option, and that none of them created yards on their own. Lacy looks slow and mediocre when carrying the ball, even while Wilson is pushing the defense back on their heels. The Eagles shut down Jordan Howard last week, which is similar to what they’ve been doing to running backs all season, allowing just 43.5 yards per game on the ground. No, that’s not a mistyped. At least McKissic is used in the passing game and offers some big play ability. They’ll need to go through the air in this matchup, making McKissic an attractive RB3/flex-option. Lacy is just someone you slot in if you want 3-6 points. Who wants that?
WRs
Alshon Jeffery: After a somewhat slow start with two touchdowns in his first seven games with the Eagles, Jeffery and Wentz have hit their stride and have now connected for five touchdowns over the last four games. He’s still yet to eclipse 92 yards, but his owners will accept the touchdowns in-place of them. The Seahawks starting cornerbacks are now Byron Maxwell and Jeremy Lane, a combination that doesn’t scare a whole lot of quarterbacks. There is some regression coming, so he’ll need to get those yardage totals up, but knowing that the Seahawks are quite short-handed, it’s not a week to worry about Jeffery. Continue to trot him out there as a high-end WR2.
Nelson Agholor: I said not to play Agholor last week because of his tough matchup in the slot, but what does he go and do? Catches a screen pass and takes it to the house. Then, to make matters worse, he recovers Jay Ajayi‘s fumble in the end zone, giving him another touchdown. You cannot predict this stuff. What you can do is look forward to seeing him match up with Justin Coleman in the slot. He’s done a fine job this year, allowing just over 10 yards per reception and a 66 percent catch rate out of the slot. It’s what you’d call an average matchup, so Agholor should be played as he normally would, as a WR4.
Doug Baldwin: The emergence of Paul Richardson has really eaten into Baldwin’s performance this year, as he’s now finished with fewer than four receptions three times, something he did just twice in all of 2016. His last two games have netted just four catches for 65 yards, though he did score a touchdown at the end of the Falcons game. I wouldn’t bet on that cold streak continuing this week, as he’ll match up with Patrick Robinson. He’s played well this year, but we can’t forget that he’s a journeyman who’s gone from team to team. His worst games of the season came when he saw playmakers on the opposing team in Jamison Crowder, Odell Beckham Jr., and Larry Fitzgerald. Knowing that Jalen Mills and Ron Darby are playing well on the perimeter, this has the feel of a Baldwin week. Start him as a low-end WR1.
Paul Richardson: On the season, Tyler Lockett has seen just one fewer target than Richardson, but the difference in performance is massive. Richardson has 35 receptions for 584 yards and five touchdowns, while Lockett has 33 receptions for 408 yards and no touchdowns. Richardson has earned his way into Wilson’s trust and has now seen 15 targets over the last two weeks, his most in any two-game stretch this season. He hasn’t scored since Week 8, but with the way Wilson is playing, it’s only a matter of time. He’ll see Jalen Mills the majority of the time, and while he’s been better as of late, he was one of the league’s worst cornerbacks in football last year. Continue playing Richardson as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.
Tyler Lockett: As mentioned in the Richardson paragraph, Lockett simply isn’t producing on his targets. He’s totaled 37 yards or less in six of his last seven games, and that’s despite seeing five or more targets on four different occasions. He’s the No. 4 option in this offense, and while he’ll always have ‘boom’ potential, he’s just a WR5.
TEs
Zach Ertz: Man, he’s been crushing in every matchup this year, even when a team ranks as one of the better ones in football. Before crushing the Bears for 10 catches, 103 yards, and a touchdown, they had allowed just one tight end to total 50 yards all season. You don’t need me to tell you to start him as a TE1 every single week, and the matchup with the Seahawks is no exception. They’ve allowed four different tight ends to go for 60-plus yards against them on the year, though just four touchdowns. This defense doesn’t have the same look it did earlier in the year, though, which just makes it all that much better for Ertz.
Jimmy Graham: Since the start of Week 3, Graham’s averaging 5.0 receptions for 48.7 yards and 0.9 touchdowns per game. He’s been really consistent, too, totaling at least 59 yards and/or a touchdown in every game. His 9.1 yards per reception is a career-low, but you won’t hear his fantasy owners complaining. The Eagles have been really good against tight ends since Doug Pederson got there, but do struggle with athletic ones that are similar to wide receivers. The only tight ends who finished as TE1’s against them this year: Travis Kelce and Jordan Reed. Both of them saw 10 targets in their games, which obviously doesn’t hurt, but Graham has seen that number of targets twice this year himself. You aren’t going to bench one of the hottest tight ends in the game, even if the matchup isn’t ideal.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 43.0
Line: PIT by 6.0
QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben on the road… what could go wrong? We’ve been here plenty of times before, and every time, there are analysts who expect him to snap out of his road funk. Until he does it multiple times, I’m not down with starting him. His last two trips to Cincinnati have ended like this: 286/1 (14.9 points) and 282/0 (9.9 points). It’s a divisional game, so both he and the Bengals know darn well what each other is trying to do, though the Bengals defense has started to struggle as the season’s gone on. After holding three of the first five quarterbacks to less than 10 fantasy points, they’ve now allowed at least 14.6 points to each of the last six quarterbacks, including Brock Osweiler. With that being said, a lot has come from rushing yards to quarterbacks, because just three quarterbacks have been able to throw more than one touchdown. This is likely a game similar to his last trip to Cincy where he’ll total 250-275 yards and a touchdown. He’s just a high-end QB2 while on the road, and maybe I’m being too generous.
Andy Dalton: The Steelers defense has kind of gone back to the one we thought they’d be when the year started, which is not great, but also not bad. Since the start of Week 8, they’ve allowed an average of 299.0 passing yards per game and 1.5 touchdowns. The reason Dalton is going to struggle is due to the pressure that they bring. Only the Jaguars defense gets to the quarterback more often than the Steelers, which is a problem, because Dalton has already been sacked more than all but five quarterbacks. In the first matchup with them this year, he totaled just 140 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions because of that pressure, as he was sacked four times in that game. His Week 15 start against them last year while at home ended in a similar fashion, as he threw for just 157 yards but with no touchdowns. There are other streaming options who offer you better chances at success, he’s just a QB2.
RBs
Le’Veon Bell: It’s been somewhat of a struggle for Bell this year, though when you see that he’s the No. 1 running back in fantasy, it’s hard to understand. He’s averaged 3.8 or less yards per carry in 7-of-11 games this year, something that happened just four times in 2016. He did finish as the RB5 when these two teams played each other in Week 7, totaling 192 yards, though he was held scoreless. The Bengals have been a bend-but-don’t-break run defense this year, allowing seven different running backs at least 60 yards on the ground, but just one (Bell) over 95 yards. The Steelers are likely to lean on him in this game knowing Roethlisberger’s struggles on the road, so lock him in as a safe RB1 this week.
Joe Mixon: It was nice to see Mixon have the game he did in Week 12, as there’ve been a lot of people doubting his skill, which never should’ve been in question. I’d argue that he’ll be a top-five back in this league once the Bengals fix their offensive line problems. I mentioned last week that you should’ve liked him because of positive game-script, but this week isn’t nearly as nice. The Steelers are 9-2 and figure to be leading in this game. Even if the Bengals have a slight lead, it’s not going to lead to 20-plus carries for Mixon. You saw Jamaal Williams break off a few big plays last week, so the Steelers defense isn’t untouchable, though his rushing touchdown was just the sixth one they allowed this year. There have been just four running backs to total more than 12 carries against the Steelers, and all of them finished as RB26 or better. Lock in Mixon as a low-end RB2 for this game who has the skill-set to give you much more.
WRs
Antonio Brown: We know Brown is ridiculous. I mean, he’s got 313 yards and five touchdowns over the last two games. Here are his stat lines over his last five meetings with the Bengals: 4/65/1, 3/58/0, 4/39/0, 7/87/0, and 6/47/1. It’s clear they have his number, and although those aren’t bad numbers, they aren’t typical WR1 numbers. The combination of Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick have slipped a bit as of late, so I’m not going to knock him down much in the rankings. He’s still a WR1 in the rankings, but as for DFS, this may be a week to have less exposure to this beast (you never want no exposure).
Martavis Bryant: It was good to see Bryant involved a bit more last week, though Brown stole the show. As for what you can expect out of him this week – it hinges on whether or not JuJu Smith-Schuster plays, because that will either raise or lower his target ceiling. The Bengals pass defense has allowed just seven top-24 wide receivers all season, so it’s not likely that both Brown and Bryant have solid games. On top of that, we’re on the road with Roethlisberger. If JuJu plays, Bryant gets knocked down to a big-play hopeful low-end WR4. If he sits another week, Bryant should be looked at as a high-end WR4 who’ll get more opportunities to break that big play.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: At this point, we don’t know if he’ll play, and what makes it worse is that the game isn’t until Monday night. It never fails, right? If you really want to play him, snag Eli Rogers off the waiver wire and sub him in if Smith-Schuster can’t go. Darqueze Dennard was a cornerback who most expected to get cut this offseason, though he’s stepped up his play this year. He did allow a touchdown to Smith-Schuster the last time these two teams played, as JuJu totaled 39 yards and a score, but had just two catches. There’s risk surrounding players with hamstring injuries, where if they come back too soon, it will put them on the shelf even longer. The Steelers have Super Bowl aspirations, so my guess would be that he sits out one more week. If he plays, consider him a risky WR3.
A.J. Green: Just like Brown, these teams have a long history and each team knows what the other is trying to do. Green has been somewhat quiet as of late, totaling 50 or less yards in four of his last six games. Here’s his last five meetings with the Steelers: 3/41/0, 2/38/0, 6/132/1, 11/118/1. What you’re likely wondering is what games were most recent, right? Unfortunately, the first few are, as he’s totaled just five catches for 79 yards in their last two meetings combined. It does help that Joe Haden is out for this game, as he’s the one who likely would’ve been covering him the most. After not allowing a wide receiver more than 61 yards in each of the first seven games, the Steelers have allowed six different wide receivers total at least 80 yards in their last four games. I’m expecting a bounce-back for Green in this game and should make his way into the WR1 finishes.
Brandon LaFell: Outside of two games where he scored a touchdown, LaFell has finished with 4.4 or less fantasy points. You’ve heard of touchdown-dependent running backs – well, he’s a touchdown-dependent wide receiver. Think of him like the Mike Tolbert of wide receivers, though slightly better. Unless Green misses time, you won’t want to trust LaFell in fantasy lineups. Sure, he may score against the Steelers (again), but he’ll likely have something in the range of 25 yards, so was it worth the risk? Nah.
TEs
Jesse James: We’ve been here before with James, and know that playing him simply isn’t worth the risk unless we think Roethlisberger is going to throw three-plus touchdowns. Playing on the road, that’s extremely unlikely to happen. On top of that, the Bengals have allowed just two tight end touchdowns all season. He’s not likely to finish in the top-20 this week.
Tyler Kroft: After two great matchups, Kroft gets his toughest matchup in a while. The Steelers have allowed just two top-12 performances this year, though one of them was to him. There should be an asterisk next to his finish, though, as he had just 23 yards, but the touchdown saved his fantasy day. Outside of that touchdown he scored, the Steelers have allowed just one the remaining 10 games. There are better streaming options in Week 13.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
