The fantasy sleeper may be extinct when it comes to cheap stolen bases. Drafters who waited for steals last year better have found Whit Merrifield, Tommy Pham, or Chris Taylor on the waiver wire.

It’s not easy finding players who run without sapping other categories outside the later rounds. Then again, it’s not easy locating any cheap speedster.

Speaking from experience, quick-footed players are getting grabbed at a premium this spring. Ozzie Albies and Manuel Margot went with picks 75 and 101, respectively, in my recent Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational draft.

Even the sleepers are wide awake. Despite holding consensus ADPs higher than 200, as of Wednesday night, two of the players highlighted below went in the top 150. In a league not festered with sharks, perhaps they will go at more affordable rates.

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Delino DeShields (OF – TEX)
Delino DeShields shouldn’t be much of a sleeper after Rangers manager Jeff Bannister named him the starting center fielder and leadoff hitter. In 80 games topping Texas’s batting order last year, he batted .260 with 63 runs and 22 steals in 29 opportunities.

Some fantasy gamers are getting deja vu from targeting DeShields as a steals sleeper, only to watch him bat .209 and get demoted in 2016. There’s some average risk given a 77.3 contact rate, but his down year-derailed by a .271 BABIP-now looks like the outlier when sandwiched between two superior and similar seasons.

 
If he hits .250-.260 while approaching another double-digit walk rate, the 25-year-old can easily swipe 35 bags over a full year. Before scoffing and demanding 50, consider that only three players (Dee Gordon, Billy Hamilton, and Trea Turner) stole at least 35 bases in 2017. DeShields tied Byron Buxton and Rajai Davis for seventh on the leaderboard with 29 in limited playing time.

But for what it’s worth, Bannister called 50 steals a “legitimate goal” for his center fielder. He’s a steal — pun somewhat intended — at his current 206.7 consensus ADP, but don’t be surprised to see his price soar over the next two weeks.

Bradley Zimmer (OF – CLE)
Another trendy sleeper no longer hiding in obscurity, Bradley Zimmer is going right behind DeShields with a 211.2 consensus ADP. DeShields is a safer selection for those solely seeking steals, but the Cleveland outfielder flaunts tantalizing speed and power upside at a reasonable going rate.

Although he hit .241/.307/.385 with an 81 wRC+ in 101 games, Zimmer also collected 18 steals in 19 opportunities. Only Buxton and Hamilton tallied a higher Statcast sprint score. Like those other two center fielders, that blazing speed makes Zimmer a significant defensive asset, which should keep him in the lineup through offensive funks. He won’t hit for much average, but he has the pop to pair 30 steals with 15 homers over a full campaign.

A 29.8 strikeout percentage and 70.4 contact rate make the 25-year-old a volatile boom-or-bust selection, but it’s really difficult to ignore his speed potential in MLB’s current landscape. Drafters will need to have already established a steady average foundation before gambling on Zimmer’s immense ceiling.

Mallex Smith (OF – TB)
Mallex Smith had a secure path to playing time for about a day. The Rays signed Carlos Gomez after surprisingly ousting Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza, so the speedster may have to contend with veteran Denard Span. Don’t jump ship just yet.

Roster Resource projects Span to move to DH, giving Smith the opening crack at left field. A borderline tank makes it sensible for the Rays to see if they have a full-time talent in Smith, a career .256/.323/.360 hitter who has stolen 32 bases in 157 games. Although he’s a better fantasy talent than a real-life player, Tampa Bay isn’t blocking anyone special by affording him an extended look.

Like DeShields and Zimmer, he has feasible 40-steal upside with a genuine chance at 30 with enough reps. With career strikeout and walk percentages of 8.7 and 22.1, respectively, he’s decent enough to hit .250-.260 by poaching hits with his legs. With a 29.3 speed score, his 54.7 ground-ball rate is a feature rather than a bug. Although a tremendous late-round flier at his 336 consensus ADP, Smith’s stock could inflate to the point of mitigating profit potential in competitive leagues.

Orlando Arcia (SS – MIL)
Fantasy investors can’t lament Orlando Arcia tallying 15 homers and 14 steals during his first full season, but it wasn’t the line they anticipated. After accumulating 24 long balls and 79 steals from 2014 to 2016, he delivered more power and less speed than projected.

Most drafters wouldn’t fret swapping a few homers for steals from the shortstop, who holds a 219.3 consensus ADP deflated by a 351 Yahoo ADP. His minor league history hints at growth to 20-25 steals, especially if he can sustain 2017’s 8.2 second-half walk rate.

While his chances dwindle batting at the bottom of Milwaukee’s lineup, that did not deter him from snatching 13 bags from June 9 onward. No National League team attempted more stolen bases than the Brewers, so he can still augment last year’s tally from the No. 7 or 8 spot.

Cesar Hernandez and Scott Kingery (2B – PHI)
Cesar Hernandez has never stolen 20 or more bases in his MLB career. That probably won’t change in 2018. Rather than chasing upside, this is merely a call to snag a cheap 15-19 steals, preferably in deeper mixed leagues.

The 27-year-old has occupied that range in each of the last three seasons. Boasting a .294 batting average and 10.6 walk percentage in 2016 and 2017, he offers a desirable blend of contact and plate discipline atop Philadelphia’s batting order. No qualified second baseman chased fewer pitches outside the strike zone, so he certainly doesn’t fall victim to the “can’t steal first” problem.

The market has recognized the growing importance of stockpiling speed, but it has done little to address the league collectively hitting .255 last year. Jose Altuve, Dee Gordon, and Jose Ramirez were the only other second basemen to bat .290 with 15 steals and 90 runs, and Hernandez’s floor does not drop much lower in any category. After getting caught stealing 13 times in 2016, he preserved a green light by successfully converting 15 of his 20 tries.

Prospect hounds would rather see this section devoted to Scott Kingery, who has stolen 59 bases over the last two seasons and is showcasing his Major League ready skills in spring training. A healthy Hernandez won’t cede the second-base job in 2018, but the Phillies have auditioned the rookie in hopes of finding an opportunity elsewhere. If he replaces Maikel Franco or J.P. Crawford, Kingery immediately becomes fantasy relevant because of his legs. While the Minor Leaguer represents an end-of-draft stash, Hernandez is a stable middle-infield selection.

Deep SB Sleepers

• Franchy Cordero (OF – SD)
• Alen Hanson (2B/OF – SF)
• Zack Granite (OF – MIN)
• Leonys Martin (OF – DET)
• Adalberto Mondesi (2B – KC)
• Victor Robles (OF – WAS)
• Magneuris Sierra (OF – MIA)
• Raimel Tapia (OF – COL)

Sleepers for RBIs
Sleepers for Home Runs

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