In keeping with the theme of my last article, let’s take a look at some of the worst teams in the NFL to see if we can find undervalued fantasy performers. The Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, and Cleveland Browns are all expected to struggle in 2018 but have made personnel, coaching, and schematic changes that could yield some fantasy standouts. I’ll provide a quick recap of the offseason changes and current status of each RB corps then provide my recommendations and cautions.
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Chicago Bears
One of the most significant head coaching changes in terms of fantasy production appears to have taken place in Chicago. The perennially conservative John Fox was ousted and replaced with the more aggressive Matt Nagy. Nagy led the Chiefs offense in 2017 that produced several fantasy studs and will install a similar scheme in Chicago. Additionally, Nagy brought in Mark Helfrich to coordinate the offense, who shares Nagy’s belief in spreading the field and creating space for playmakers. All of this should be promising for a team’s lead RB, but is that the case for Jordan Howard (ADP RB14)?
Howard is coming off consecutive seasons with more then 250 carries and 1,100 rushing yards. Unfortunately, his yards per carry dropped from 5.2 to 4.1 in those years and his participation in the passing game remains limited with only 52 career receptions and a whopping 14 drops despite the limited involvement. Nagy is known to incorporate running backs in the passing game and Howard’s skill set will be viewed as a liability in those situations which may be frequent considering the Bears’ anticipated struggles. One bright spot is Howard’s career 6.49 yards per carry out of shotgun which he will run more out of in 2018. Howard is appropriately going late in the second round or early third and should be effective at that ADP but with limited upside.
Tarik Cohen (ADP RB32) is another story. Cohen exploded on the scene early in 2017 but Fox was unable to put him in positions to succeed as the season wore on. That won’t be the case this year. It’s unlikely that coaching and scheme change will impact another running back more positively than Nagy’s impact on Cohen. Already, Nagy has expanded Cohen’s route tree and compared him several times to Tyreek Hill, who was used effectively in Kansas City. It wouldn’t surprise me if Cohen had upward of 60 receptions and 500 receiving yards in addition to the rushing yardage accumulated in his third-down role. In some drafts, Cohen is falling through the seventh round and must be taken in that case. He will be a serviceable RB3 at worst with some huge games. “He’s a player that for me, you get giddy about,” said Nagy. I agree.
Cincinnati Bengals
The changes impacting running backs in Cincinnati don’t involve the backs themselves or high-level coaches, although maybe the latter would have made sense. The offseason moves involve the offensive line. Cincinnati’s line was putrid in 2017, so they acquired Cordy Glenn to play left tackle and drafted Billy Price to play center. Both are improvements. Additionally, Frank Pollack, who has had great success as an offensive line coach (most recently the explosive 2016 Cowboys run game) was brought in to shore up the unit as a whole.
Joe Mixon (ADP RB16) is undoubtedly the primary beneficiary of these changes. The Bengals have moved on from Jeremy Hill and Duke Tobin, Bengals’ director of player personnel, confirmed that “[Mixon] is going to be our bellcow running back.” Early in 2017, Mixon saw limited work as Hill dominated the ball in the first few games and Mixon suffered a concussion that limited his playing time from Week 13 on. In the period between, Mixon showed flashes of being a true primary back. Currently going in the middle of the third round, Mixon offers high-end RB2 upside with almost no usage risk. I would be fine to start Mixon as my RB2 given draft position and would certainly target him aggressively if he falls towards the end of the third round of drafts or into the fourth.
So where does this leave Giovani Bernard (ADP RB59)? Well, it leaves him about where he’s been for a couple of years now. Bernard was only averaging 4.8 touches a game until Week 13 when both Mixon and Hill were unavailable. Bernard was fairly effective in Weeks 13 through 17 but will be relegated to the complementary role again to start 2018. Bernard should see about 100 carries and 40 receptions for 700-800 total yards which puts him appropriately outside of the usable running back range in most leagues. I wouldn’t consider him unless he fell outside of the top 150 picks in standard leagues and only as a bye week substitution.
Cleveland Browns
The offseason changes in Cleveland were enabled by the cap space and draft picks that John Dorsey inherited from Sashi Brown. When the Browns’ dipped into their cap space and acquired Carlos Hyde (ADP RB27) at a top-end running back price, I assumed they were set at the position. Then, using more capital that Sashi built, they drafted Nick Chubb (ADP RB43) with the 35th pick in the draft. It was a strange move that muddled my projections for the Browns’ RB group.
Before the draft, I had Hyde as a clear RB2 with a fairly high ceiling. Coming off a 240-carry year where he showed his receiving prowess as well to the tune of 59 catches, Hyde was going to dominate the Browns’ backfield. In most formats, Hyde finished at or near an RB1 and had a similar ceiling going into 2018. With the Chubb draft pick, it dampens my desire to go after either player. I can envision a scenario where Hyde holds off Chubb for the majority of the year and returns early second-round value. Alternatively, given the Browns likelihood of a mediocre season, we could see Chubb supplant Hyde as the primary early-down back by midseason. Unless something changes significantly I’ll be avoiding both players.
On the other hand, Duke Johnson (ADP RB39) has a solidified role and should be a safe mid-round pick, right? After all, he’s coming off a career year receiving and should continue to see significant volume. Not exactly. Carlos Hyde is a better receiver than Crowell was and Jarvis Landry and Josh Gordon are improvements over the previous weapons on the outside. Johnson would need to come near his 74-reception 2017 campaign to return the near RB3 ADP he currently carries, and I don’t expect that to be the case. I plan on avoiding the Browns backfield completely despite the intriguing talent.
I hope I’ve been able to shed some light on how these three backfields evolved since last year. I will be targeting Joe Mixon if he slips into the late third or early fourth round and will do the same with Tarik Cohen if he falls past the seventh round. Both have a stable floor and significant upside with minimal risk of losing their role in the offense. I will be avoiding the Browns backfield entirely.
Until the next article, good luck with your drafts!
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David McDougald is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMcDou.
